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Mudguard

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  1. Mudguard

    Corona Horse, Corona Rider - Covid #9

    Apparently, the Newsweek and Times story about the 42000 urns both incorrectly stated that there were 56,000 deaths in the fourth quarter of 2019, when actually the 56,000 number was an annual number. The Newsweek story has posted the following updates to their story: This changes my original analysis a lot, if in fact all 42,000 urns are for Wuhan. There would be an excess of over 20,000 deaths for this period. As the update mentions, some of this may be due to deaths from other causes, but which likely could have been avoided if the hospitals weren't overburdened. You have to wonder whether similar things are happening in Italy, Spain, Iran, and now in NYC.
  2. Mudguard

    Corona Horse, Corona Rider - Covid #9

    After Ran mentioned in the last thread that Sweden was trying a very different approach, they are the last country in Europe to resist a lockdown, I've been following Sweden's progress. I had no idea that they were not aggressively testing. They've only tested 36,000 people, although granted, Sweden has a population of 10 million. The numbers of cases are doubling roughly every 7 days, but the numbers of deaths have been doubling about every 3 days. I wonder whether the difference between the two rates is a result of the low rate of testing. They currently have 4400 cases, and in a week it'll likely be 8000, and in two weeks 16,000. I think they better reconsider their strategy, and soon. Because the effects of implementing a new mitigation strategy generally takes 2 to 3 weeks to see an effect, each week of delay right now could mean tens of thousands of cases that could have been avoided. There was petition signed by 2000 doctors, scientists, and professors:
  3. Mudguard

    Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

    That's essentially the same story as my Time's article and the Newsweek article Trisk shared (both the Newsweek and Times article added the info about the 56,000 deaths in the 4th quarter of 2019), which I read after making my post and I assume is where you initially got your info. I don't see anything unusual with the numbers. Why does the author of the Newsweek article cited by Trisk assume that there should be 16000 deaths during the 2.5 month period when there was 56,000 deaths in the 4th quarter of 2019? 56,000*2.5/3 =46,667 deaths expected over a 2.5 month period. That is in line with the 42,000 urns estimate. For there to be 30,000 deaths from COVID-19 in Wuhan would mean that there were at least 300K cases in Wuhan alone, if you assume a worse case 10% fatality rate due to an overwhelmed health care system like we are seeing in Italy. There should have been thousands dying per day during the peak. Is it possible to hide that many deaths? I also thought that they were placing all the infected in makeshift camps. They would have had to build ten times the number of camps to house this many infected. Something of that magnitude would be visible on satellite. I'm not sure that it's possible to completely lock down that type of bombshell.
  4. Mudguard

    US Politics: Get Tested or Get Bested

    It's real. The technology is called isothermal amplification (of which there are quite a few different methods), and was developed by Alere, which was acquired by Abbott, a reputable medical device and pharma company. The method still amplifies DNA, but it doesn't require the thermal cycling steps which take a lot of time. Abbott uses a nicking enzyme amplification reaction that creates a nick in the DNA and uses a strand displacing polymerase to amplify the target sequence. See this presentation from Alere about its technology.
  5. Mudguard

    Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

    Were the crematoriums put on hold during the duration of the quarantine? If so, there would be a large backlog of dead to burn once they reopened. Do you have any citations from a reputable cite that supports this hypothesis? I found a Time article that states people have suspicions, but nothing conclusive. According to the Time article, there were 56,000 cremations in the fourth quarter of 2019. If the crematoriums were put on hold for around 2 to 3 months, 45000 dead appears in line to me. Where is the 15000 number coming from? The story still seems speculative to me, bordering on conspiracy theory, if the crematoriums were put on hold during the quarantine.
  6. Mudguard

    Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

    Yes, what we need to also know is how large is the backlog of tests waiting to be tested. I still read that turnaround time is generally five or more days. Senator Rand's test took 6 days to process. This means there's still a huge backlog of samples to be tested, and that testing capacity is still not enough to meet demand yet, which will only get worse as the number of infected increases. I think our number of infected numbers are counted when the results come in. It would be more useful if it was counted based on when the sample was collected, along with showing the numbers of samples from that day which are still awaiting results. It would be much easier to determine whether the infection rate was actually leveling off if it was presented this way. Right now with the way the data is presented, it's impossible to tell.
  7. Mudguard

    The world after the pandemic

    I'm not sure that China could have reasonably acted faster to clamp down. You have to keep in mind that this was a new disease with symptoms similar to the flu that popped up during flu season. It took some time to realize that the cases of pneumonia that were popping up weren't from the flu. At that point, they probably ran tests for other pathogens that could have caused the pneumonia, again coming up empty. They probably suspected then that they were dealing with a new pathogen, and to identify it takes time (isolating the virus and sequencing its genome from scratch). Then it takes time to develop a reliable assay. Just ask the CDC. Even after all this was done, it wasn't clear how big a problem this new virus was. The first SARS and MERS were deadly but did not spread quickly. How deadly and how quickly this new virus spread were completely unknown and extremely difficult to determine when case numbers were so low and it was unknown how long it had been spreading before being discovered. People TODAY still argue about how deadly the disease really is and how fast the infection spreads, and we now have the benefit of a massive amount of data. The genome was uploaded to a public database by a Chinese researcher in early January. Creating and deploying a diagnostic test in a week or so is extremely fast. They quarantined Wuhan on January 23rd. I haven't seen anything that shows that they just sat on this or that they tried to hide or downplay how dangerous the virus was after they found out. If you have evidence that shows otherwise, please share. Compare China's response to that of Trump, who was downplaying the danger into March. Really, my major complaint with how they handled things was how they punished the doctor for warning his friends in a private communication. But that is a separate issue from how well they responded to the outbreak.
  8. Mudguard

    Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

    The WHO's recommendation is a containment strategy that is designed to minimize the numbers of people that get infected. It only works when the number of infected is low. When the number of infected is high, you do not have the resources to perform enough tests or to do the contract tracing, which is very labor and resource intensive. Many countries have way too many cases to use this approach right now. The viral RNA is only detectable when the patient is shedding the virus, which is during infection and for a short period of time after you've recovered while your body sheds dead virus. You shouldn't be able to detect viral RNA after all the dead virus has been cleared by the body. I think this can take up to a week or two, but I'm not sure. There is probably quite a bit of variability that depends on things like the severity of the infection (severe infection means more virus to clear which takes longer).
  9. Mudguard

    Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

    California and other states tried the group size restriction, going quickly from 500 to lockdown. Looks like the doubling rate in Sweden is about 7 days for the last two weeks, which is much better than many other countries, but not good enough, which is why they shrank the group size. I'm skeptical that will be enough, but good luck.
  10. Mudguard

    Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

    The logic for wearing masks is simple. If you are sick, the recommendation is to wear a mask, or a facial covering if you don't have a mask in order to reduce the spread of infectious droplets. There is a lot of evidence that people who don't know that they are infected are unknowingly spreading the disease, and one of the main vectors for transmission is through droplets. If everyone wore a mask or facial covering, then those infected people would be wearing a mask when in public that would catch their driplets, which is what we want. If people don't wear masks, then these people unwittingly continue to spread droplets full of virus all over the place. If they are close to you, these droplets could be deposited right in your face. Or if they cough in the produce section, it coats all your food. I don't understand why this is considered acceptable.
  11. Mudguard

    Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

    The facial covering is more for preventing someone who is unknowingly sick from spreading droplets rather than preventing a healthy person from getting sick, although it may help some with that too. The proper usage can be easily taught. There are quite a few studies that show that it works at reducing transmission in certain situations. People have also performed droplet or particle capture experiments with diy masks, and they appear to work very well. I don't doubt that your managers are idiots. When things calm down and return to normal or whatever the new normal will be, I hope you can get another job somewhere else or go back to school because your workplace sounds like a hellhole. As for me, I work in a medical diagnostic company that sent all nonessential employees home a couple weeks ago, so I've been working from home for a while now. Some of our employees have been classified as essential, but only those that support a product on the market or anything related to SARS-Cov-2, but the vast majority have been told to go home. A lot of R&D is going to be paused for potentially months. The handwashing, the 6ft separation, cleaning of surfaces, are all important in reducing transmission. Dude, thank you for taking it seriously. We really need more of that. I'm just saying that wearing a facial covering is also something we all can do that would also help, and I'm very worries that we aren't doing enough, certainly as a country, to get the R0 under one. Might as well grab all the low hanging fruit. I bought some buffs (head wrap, not sure what they are called, but to me it's just a droplet catcher), so in this instance, I'm going to practice what I preach when I go out even if I look like an idiot where I live.
  12. Mudguard

    US Politics: Get Tested or Get Bested

    I wondered the same about the lack of other accusations of the most serious sexual assault charges. According to Reade, she claimed he was surprised when she pulled back and that he stated that he thought she wanted it. He immediately backed off after realizing his mistake. Reade claimed that she idolized him before the alleged assault. It's plausible that he misread her interest, and maybe the incident shook him and he never attempted something like that again.
  13. Mudguard

    Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

    You're telling me that coughing into your elbow is better than covering your mouth and nose with a cloth wrapping for reducing spread of droplets? Coughing into your elbow is a really low bar to beat. And who says anything about going back to normal? This should be used while remaining under quarantine and all the other measures like staying 6 feet apart. As you well know from personal experience, people violate that rule all the time, and it has nothing to do with wearing a mask or not. People still need to go to the supermarket to get food, and to reduce the spread of droplets, cover their damn mouth and nose. Those nurses are just repeating one of the reasons listed by the CDC and WHO for their mask policy. Look how well their recommendations have worked. Both agencies we're against quarantine too until it was quickly obvious that their recommendations were wholly inadequate. Meanwhile, medical experts from China are urging the West to reconsider their policy on mass mask usage by the general populace. This open letter was published in the Lancet, a highly reputable medical journal. So until we have enough masks for everyone, just using a diy facial covering is a lot better than nothing.
  14. Mudguard

    US Politics: Get Tested or Get Bested

    Like many other women, she did not come forth until recently after the me too movement really took off. She worked for Biden as a low level staffer for less than a year over 25 years ago. I doubt they ever talked to her.
  15. Mudguard

    Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

    China put Wuhan in lockdown on January 23rd. At that point, it should have been abundantly obvious that this was an extremely serious disease. The countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan that took it seriously have had much more success than the countries in the West. They had the same information as everyone else. These countries had much more experience with these types of outbreaks than us, so instead of following their lead, in our Western arrogance, we thought we knew better and could handle things our way. Even after Wuhan was quarantined, how many of our leaders downplayed the severity of the disease? I know Trump did, and I'm pretty sure Boris did as well. And they used that as justification for doing virtually nothing for over a month. We've seen what works, but we continue to refuse to fully implement these measures, and instead, each time our half measures fail, we act surprised and blame China for our own failure to act.
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