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Gorn

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  • Birthday 06/15/1987

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  1. I'm about 30h into Divinity: Original Sin 2, and it's a significant improvement over the first part. Not quite "the best RPG EVER" as some overexcited reviewers said, but definitely an excellent one. Since I often play as a sneaky rogue/assassin type of character, I picked Sebille, and decided to roleplay her as, basically, adult Arya whose "list" consists of upper-class lizardmen slavers, and the entire Magister order. So far, the game allowed me to: - kill the sleeping Magister guard on the prologue ship; - kill the dying Magister leader on the prologue ship that I was probably supposed to try to save; - murder a potential NPC companion, the Red Prince, during our meeting on Fort Joy beach (when I was supposed to recruit him), basically for being a snobby lizardman aristocrat and for calling Sebille a slave; - murder a random lizardman trader and a potential questgiver in Fort Joy for the same crime; - torture and then murder an important lizardman NPC in Fort Joy (who otherwise seemed a decent sort) for the information about Sebille's former master; - kill an undead trader in Fort Joy, and then eat his corpse for the information I needed (elven cannibalism is fun in this setting!) - kill every last Magister in Fort Joy except for a blind recruit I took pity on. Although, considering he's now the only remaining Magister on an island full of pissed-off prisoners, it might be a fate worse than death. The only part I felt railroaded into behaving out of "what would Arya Stark do" character was when the game kept me from killing I'm now on the second major open world section, and my inventory is full of disembodied body parts that I keep as in-combat snacks instead of health potions (did I mention that elven cannibalism is fun in this setting?).
  2. Well, we know for a fact that most pollsters compensate for the low rate of responses by trying to model the electorate that will turn out (based on race, age, education and other factors), and weighing the responses according to that. Selzer's method is specific in that she doesn't do that, and only weighs the responses based on population in a given area. We also know for a fact that "poll herding" is a well-known problem in the field, and that some pollsters will quietly adjust their weighing in order not to be outliers. Since the polls were obviously badly mistaken, and since the Democratic strategy obviously failed in several swing states and key Senate races, her theory sounds like a reasonable explanation to me.
  3. The one pollster who got the results right, Ann Seltzer in Iowa, explains why others got it wrong: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/iowa-election-polls-ann-selzer.htmlhttps://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/iowa-election-polls-ann-selzer.html Basically, other pollsters were seeing data that said that Republicans would have a high turnout and that an unexpectedly large percentage of minorities would vote for Trump, but they would say "that can't be right" and adjust the data to their expectations. The interview also some interesting things about what Democrats got wrong with their strategy - basically, focusing too much on early voting and not enough on Election Day voters.
  4. Who is this "British public" that will punish soft Brexit that you speak of? 48.1% voted to Remain, while the remainder includes both "hard" and "soft" Brexiters. In fact, according to the latest polling on the issue, 45% want to remain in the EU, 34% want a deal, and only 17% want "no deal".
  5. I'm cautiously optimistic that we may see the reverse of the "Obama effect" and that many Trump voters will go back to being nonvoters if he isn't on the ballot. Besides, morale among Georgia Democrats must be pretty high after actually flipping the state after 28 years.
  6. The goal of liberals is to pass actual policies; the goal of conservatives is to prevent liberals from passing policies. To accomplish their goal, liberals need the presidency and the Congress and the Senate and a friendly Supreme Court. To accomplish their goal, conservatives only need one of those.
  7. If it's 270-268 (Trump wins PA, NC and GA, Biden wins WI, MI and NV), how much should I worry about faithless electors?
  8. Wow, Hawaii are currently at 104.5% of their 2016 turnout. Texas is at 95%.
  9. I'm guessing that Cyberpunk will be buggy upon launch, although multiple release date delays will probably help iron out the worst of it. I'm sure they would like even more time for polishing, but they really can't push back the release any further because of the holiday season. The recent Covid flare-up in Poland probably doesn't help either.
  10. I'm not sure how much voice acting is to blame for reduced writing standards, Both KotOR games, first three Mass Effect games and the Dragon Age games had some amazing dialogues, and they were all fully voiced games. So did the first Witcher, and I doubt that CD Project Red could afford to do multiple sets of voice recording back then. And a lot of old text-only CRPGs don't really stand up to modern-day replays (rare gems like Baldurs Gate II or Planescape Torment excepted). BG1 for example had a lot of writing, but it was below the standards of late-2000s peak Bioware. Neverwinter Nights was a text-only game with completely forgettable writing, and so was Icewind Dale. I'd even go so far to say that Fallout: New Vegas had better writing than either of the two original Fallout games.
  11. Let's recall what actually happened in 2000. Bush v. Gore ended up in front of the Supreme Court due to a combination of local Republican officials being partisan (but still within bounds of the law), and a stupid unforced mistake by Gore campaign (only demanding recount in specific counties). The actual legal case was ambiguous and could have been reasonably decided either way, and it happened a whole month after the election. On the other hand, court deciding the election in favor of Trump due to votes not being counted would require: - that the election comes down to a single state; - that the state in question has Republican officials in charge of counting (not many swing states do) who are willing to break the law to get Trump elected; - that the votes within that state are close enough that a court decision can make a difference.
  12. Supreme Court isn't in charge of vote counting, states are. There's a long and labored process for an issue to even reach the Supreme Court. The only way they will get to decide the election is if it hinges on a single, Republican-ruled state (as in 2000), which is highly unlikely.
  13. Swedish Road Administration? Superhuman Registration Act? Sexual Recovery Anonymous? Edit: sorry, couldn't resist
  14. To be fair to Kalibear, the nine states that do provide party registration data are slanted Democratic. For example, California and New Jersey provide this data, while Texas, Georgia and Alabama do not. Their data is not representative of the US as a whole.
  15. Except that Biden is sitting on a huge pile of unspent cash, and focusing funds exclusively on certain states quickly hits the point of diminishing returns. Why not spend some of that warchest on Texas? If if Biden doesn't win it, it may end up pushing some downballot candidates over the line. The only winning strategy is a 50-state strategy.
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