Problems with the Blackfyre theory (Illyrio & Aegon)

[Lord Varys]

Well, the theory that Aegon might be a Blackfyre descendant through the female line, seems to be rather popular right now. I don't discard that one easily, as it really would explain Illyrio's motivation to join this grand scheme of Varys's to create a lasting peace in Westeros.

I guess, for the theory to work, we have to assume that Illyrio himself has to be a Blackfyre descendant, not just his second wife Serra. If Illyrio told Tyrion the truth - that he was very much in love with Serra - it would make no sense that he would sacrifice his son for a grand political scheme to wreak havoc in a continent he does not care all that much about. Even if his old friend Varys - the man who very much made him the most powerful man in Pentos - would ask his son for his grand plan, I doubt he would give him up if he really was the son of his true love.

If Aegon is Illyrio's son, he must never learn the truth, or I guess the way he was educated he would decide to back down and not pursue 'his claim'. He believes, after all, that he is Rhaegar Targaryen's son, not (possibly) a remote descendant of Daemon I Blackfyre. Thus, Illyrio cannot ever hope to be a father for Aegon, even if the boy succeeds and ascends the Iron Throne of Westeros. All he could be is a good friend of the family.

I'm not sure if Illyrio would do that, if he really loved Serra and his son.

[Of course, Illyrio could have lied about his feelings for Serra - she could just be a tool to create a convincing 'Aegon Targaryen', and 'being in love' would be Illyrio's cover story for the Pentoshi society to explain why he would marry a Lysene whore. Just as Varys made Connington create his own humiliating cover story to fake his death.]

I'm not sure if I'm buying this story. Even if Illyrio himself was a Blackfyre descendant - would he actually care all that much about Westeros or a (secret) restoration of his dynasty through 'Aegon VI Targaryen' if this meant to sacrifice his son? I'm not sure about that. But that's not that big a problem.

The real deal is the egg thing:

Illyrio presents Daenerys Targaryen with three dragon eggs in AGoT. Why on earth should he give them to her instead of Aegon?! The theory that Aegon is fake has to assume that Varys and Illyrio do not care at all about the Azor Ahai prophecy - putting a fake Targaryen/remote Blackfyre descendant on the Iron Throne is not going to ensure that Azor Ahai is at the right place when the War for Dawn begins. So if we assume neither Varys nor Illyrio care all that much about ancient prophecies and more about the future of their house or a lasting peace in Westeros, it would make no sense at all to give Dany the eggs and not to Aegon.

Aegon's claim could only profit if he were to present ancient Targaryen dragon eggs - I'm quite sure Dany's eggs were in fact Targaryen dragon eggs smuggled out of KL during/after the Sack - along with Blackfyre and/or Dark Sister when he reveals himself to the world.

Illyrio would not get the eggs back if he allowed Dany to take them with her to Vaes Dothrak. And I doubt that he would have believed/thought she could hatch them if he was working with a fake Aegon, while using the real deal only as coin to buy Drogo.

But on the other hand, it makes also little sense for him to give the eggs to Dany if Aegon was really Rhaegar's son. If he and Varys thought Aegon might be Azor Ahai, they would have given the eggs to him. And if they thought Dany was the savior, they would not have married her to Drogo. Although, they might have thought that this marriage was necessary for her to realize who she was supposed to become. If something is made evident during the series, it is the fact that you can't force somebody to be a prophesied guy by faking the signs.

Somehow I now believe it makes as little sense if Aegon was genuine as it would make if he was fake. But I'm quite sure that it would prove to be devastating for a secret Blackfyre restoration plot if they would give the eggs to Dany and not to Aegon.

[Silmarien]

Why are you assuming Illyrio must be a Blackfyre? Why can't Serra be one? Aegon would still be a Blackfyre descendant.

About the eggs - dragons had been gone from the world for a century. Illyrio couldn't have anticipated Daenerys being able to hatch them. They were lavish gifts, sure, but Dany in her POV (GoT, her wedding chapter) thinks that Illyrio could afford to be lavish, since he'd made a fortune in horses, gold, etc. from the wedding.

I don't necessarily believe the Blackfyre theory. I think it's possible. But I do think Aegon is fake (not Rhaegar's son) one way or another.

If Aegon is Illyrio's son, I think he might be willing to make his child King of Westeros. He says himself that he'll be Master of Coin, a position of power and influence that isn't really available elsewhere for him. (Yes I know he is rich, but he doesn't have much political power in Pentos).

Also, being Master of Coin would put him very close to Aegon, his son. So I can see it being plausible that Illyrio would set up his son to be King.

[Argilac]

I agree with Silmarien. The eggs would have been a much different gift had Illyrio known they'd hatch.

[The Lost Lord]

But I'm quite sure that it would prove to be devastating for a secret Blackfyre restoration plot if they would give the eggs to Dany and not to Aegon.

I basically agree with you that "Why did Illyrio give the eggs to Dany and not Aegon" is a serious problem even if he didn't think they'd hatch, considering the value and symbolic import of the eggs. Unfortunately I suspect the answer is just that GRRM hadn't plotted out Aegon so early.

[hotweaselsoup]

Maybe the dragon eggs were given to Dany to lend credence to the claim that she was a Targaryen princess, and thereby make her a more worthy "gift" for Drogo?

Drogo is a big question mark in this for me. Why did he want Dany so much in the first place? According to the text, he paid (or gifted, I guess) a fortune in horses and slaves for her. Why?

[LordBloodraven]

Well, are we sure that Illyrio believe in Azor Ahai prophecy? Does he even know it? The eggs doesn't change anything since he didn't expect Dany to hatch them, they were "lavish gifts" only. I do think that Aegon has been given Blackfyre by Illyrio (the gifts he had for Young Griff, when he was traveling with Tyrion). The sword is more significant, it's a Targ heirloom while the dragons weren't expected to hatch. Now, since Dany got 3 dragons, they're plotting to marry her with Aegon.

[hesitantreader]

The whole Blackfyre plot seems far too bolted on to make sense in this series. We already have an icy magical wall keeping out an army of wights and others and a dragon princess to reconcile. I just don't see this fitting into two books.

I also think that the most convincing long term foreshadowing that you can point to in the previous books regarding Aegon is that no one ever saw the body of baby Aegon with his head intact. To me the simplest and answer is that he is legitimate.

[The Mother of The Others]

The real deal is the egg thing:

Illyrio presents Daenerys Targaryen with three dragon eggs in AGoT. Why on earth should he give them to her instead of Aegon?!

Whoa! :cheers: :drool: :cheers: :drool: :cheers: :dunno: :cheers: :agree: :cool4:

Maybe the dragon eggs were given to Dany to lend credence to the claim that she was a Targaryen princess, and thereby make her a more worthy "gift" for Drogo?

Probably the best answer. Illyrio bought into the conventional wisdom of the day about the eggs: They were inert. No wizard could awaken them. So people might still pay a lot for them on Antiques Roadshow, but their only real use was as a prestigious decoration. So Illyrio bought them, didn't count the cost, and used them as a thoughtful wedding gift for a girl who'd been robbed of her heritage. And the khal paid a huge price for her because he hungered for prestige that'd separate him from the other khals, and she was a real princess or whatever.

[hesitantreader]

We also have this line to consider:

"Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon."

Aegon is not going to Merreen/Daenerys. Heck we will be lucky if she gets Westeros in the next book. If she is going to meet a mummer's dragon it could very well be someone/something else other then Aegon.

It is also interesting that the prophecy lists the parties in pairs and the sun's son did put on a costume to free the dragons.

[ARYa_Nym]

We also have this line to consider:

"Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon."

Aegon is not going to Merreen/Daenerys. Heck we will be lucky if she gets Westeros in the next book. If she is going to meet a mummer's dragon it could very well be someone/something else other then Aegon.

It is also interesting that the prophecy lists the parties in pairs and the sun's son did put on a costume to free the dragons.

That part was from Quaithe.

Tyrion turning away the Mummer's Dragon and the Griffin only helps the Undying prophecy:

A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd.

It gives him time to gain popularity.

[hesitantreader]

The problem I have with that undying prophecy is it is unclear if it is "truthful". It is likely that this line will never come to pass:

"A tall lord with copper skin and silver-gold hair stood beneath the banner of a fiery stallion, a burning city behind him."

So how do we know that there will ever be a cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd? Perhaps this is the future she will never have in Meereen?

[The Dornishman's Wife]

You make a lot of interesting comments, so I feel kind of nit-picky if I quote just the part I want to criticize, but:

The theory that Aegon is fake has to assume that Varys and Illyrio do not care at all about the Azor Ahai prophecy - putting a fake Targaryen/remote Blackfyre descendant on the Iron Throne is not going to ensure that Azor Ahai is at the right place when the War for Dawn begins

[...]

So if we assume neither Varys nor Illyrio care all that much about ancient prophecies and more about the future of their house or a lasting peace in Westeros, it would make no sense at all to give Dany the eggs and not to Aegon.

I don't see it as a given at all that in the Blackfyre scenario, Illyrio and Varys disregard the AA prophecy. If they are typical Blackfyre loyalists for whatever reason, they believe that the "real" continuation of the royal Targaryen line should have been the Blackfyre line - they don't consider Blackfyres inferior to Targs at all. So why should they be so sure that AA would be born a Targ, rather than a Blackfyre?

But in any case, I can understand the rest of your thoughts: Illyrio giving Dany dragon eggs is a bit surprising, whether he's a Blackfyre supporter or not.

[Bastard of Godsgrace]

The problem I have with that undying prophecy is it is unclear if it is "truthful". It is likely that this line will never come to pass:

"A tall lord with copper skin and silver-gold hair stood beneath the banner of a fiery stallion, a burning city behind him."

So how do we know that there will ever be a cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd? Perhaps this is the future she will never have in Meereen?

Vision of tall lord symbolizes Rhaego, since three first visions show us three people who had to die so Dany could become a heir to the throne - Rhaegar, Viserys and Rhaego (daughter of death). The visions themselves are symbolic and don't have to show something what really happened. The second group of visions (slayer of lies) most likely represent three false kings (or false dragons). Two of them seem to be Stannis and Aegon, identity of the third we still don't know. We probably won't see actual mummers dragon or stone beast, they are simply symbols of Aegon being called Mummers Dragon, and whatever the third pretendent will be (someone suffering from greyscale seems a possibility).

[Wouter]

I basically agree with you that "Why did Illyrio give the eggs to Dany and not Aegon" is a serious problem even if he didn't think they'd hatch, considering the value and symbolic import of the eggs. Unfortunately I suspect the answer is just that GRRM hadn't plotted out Aegon so early.

I don't think so; Illyrio's attitude towards Viserys made no sense right from the start, if we suppose he was a genuine Viserys supporter who really wanted him to become king. Dany even notices Illyrio's hidden disdain for Viserys, at one point. In the same chapter where she gets the eggs.

IMO, Dany's explanation is the correct one: he could afford to be generous. Another explanation I've heard mentioned here, is that Illyrio added the eggs to make Dany stand out in Drogo's eyes. With the eggs, Dany didn't look like a beggar princess; she was a proper Targaryen, dragon princess now. That would make it more likely that Drogo would be pleased indeed.

[hesitantreader]

Vision of tall lord symbolizes Rhaego, since three first visions show us three people who had to die so Dany could become a heir to the throne - Rhaegar, Viserys and Rhaego (daughter of death). The visions themselves are symbolic and don't have to show something what really happened. The second group of visions (slayer of lies) most likely represent three false kings (or false dragons). Two of them seem to be Stannis and Aegon, identity of the third we still don't know. We probably won't see actual mummers dragon or stone beast, they are simply symbols of Aegon being called Mummers Dragon, and whatever the third pretendent will be (someone suffering from greyscale seems a possibility).

It is a nice thought and it may be that this is the symbolism that is intended, but all of Rhaego's family and heirs need to have died for her to be the heir as well. If the intention is to show the legitimate line of succession it should have been Aerys and not Rhaego in the vision.

[jon rr stark]

There are problems with the blackfrye theory. But since I think one of the reasons for this theory is that no one can figure out what Varys and Illyrio real motivation is. If they are blackfyre why are they apparently trying to put two different Trags on the Throne. There doesnt appear to be a theory for these two that doesnt have holes in it.

[jon rr stark]

I don't think so; Illyrio's attitude towards Viserys made no sense right from the start, if we suppose he was a genuine Viserys supporter who really wanted him to become king. Dany even notices Illyrio's hidden disdain for Viserys, at one point. In the same chapter where she gets the eggs.

IMO, Dany's explanation is the correct one: he could afford to be generous. Another explanation I've heard mentioned here, is that Illyrio added the eggs to make Dany stand out in Drogo's eyes. With the eggs, Dany didn't look like a beggar princess; she was a proper Targaryen, dragon princess now. That would make it more likely that Drogo would be pleased indeed.

For someone as rich as Illyrio dragon eggs can be got. There are enough around, these ones could have come from Asshai where Bran saw dragons in his weirwood dreams. Was Aegon the real plan with Dany getting an army which could be used for him later. She wasn't significant until she hatched her dragons which changed the whole game. Since Aegon is before her in the Trag line of succession wouldn't she have given him her support when revealed. Viserys would also be behind him so he didnt matter realy. However the real question are they Trag, Blackfyre, supporteds or have they got another plan. Or do they just like the game as super rich men doing it for entertainment

[hesitantreader]

There are problems with the blackfrye theory. But since I think one of the reasons for this theory is that no one can figure out what Varys and Illyrio real motivation is. If they are blackfyre why are they apparently trying to put two different Trags on the Throne. There doesnt appear to be a theory for these two that doesnt have holes in it.

Anther part of the mystery is why does Ser Barristan the Bold go to Illyrio after he leaves KL in order to find Dany, is it possible that he knows of some connection between Illyrio and Aerys (ie knows he can trust him)?

[Yakman]

Anther part of the mystery is why does Ser Barristan the Bold go to Illyrio after he leaves KL in order to find Dany, is it possible that he knows of some connection between Illyrio and Aerys (ie knows he can trust him)?

Varys talked to him after he was expelled from the King's Guard.

Varys was the one who put the idea into Joffrey's head (read Tyrion's first chapter in ACoK) to get rid of Barristan. Varys knew that Barristan would not take that lightly and intercepted him - note that Barristan left through the Mud Gate, towards the docks, before he vanished. Varys had the whole thing planned out.

[Lord Varys]

I should have differentiated better in the original post. There are, as I see it, five different scenarios, and they all have problems of their own. But first I have to explain why I consider the Azor Ahai prophecy thing an real issue here. I think, if this prophecy fits into their plan, it would have been heavily influenced by what the Targaryens from Jaehaerys II and Aemon onwards until to Aerys and Rhaegar believed, since Varys would have been in the best position to overhear all the talk about this particular topic.

As to the eggs, I'm all but convinced that Illyrio's eggs are Targaryen dragon eggs - maybe the last ones they had left after Summerhall - smuggled out of KL by Varys and delivered to Illyrio, who gave them 'back' to Daenerys.

And the value three real dragon eggs cannot be discarded easily. If Jorah believes, a man like Viserys could use those eggs to buy an army, they have to be worth a fortune. They might not be worth more than Illyrio owns, but I guess all three eggs could make up 2/3 of his fortune. He would never spend this much money just to make Dany look more attractive. No way. No way at all.

And I'm quite convinced that, if Varys gives a damn about this prophecy, Aegon has to be genuine. We already know that Rhaegar ended up believing that his son Aegon - not he himself - was supposed to be the golden child destined to save Westeros. If Varys needs a reason to save Aegon from death, this is the reason possible. Saving the savior and shaping him into your tool, would have been a good move.

Aegon can only be fake in this scenario, I think, if the real Aegon died of the same disease that killed Serra. Varys and Illyrio would have to adjust their plans afterwards.

And then it is obviously completely weird that Illyrio would give the dragon eggs to Daenerys instead of Aegon...

But back to the scenarios:

1. Aegon is genuine. Varys and Illyrio are (for whatever reason) true Targaryen loyalists. They think Aegon is Azor Ahai. It makes no sense that they would give the eggs to Daenerys.

2. Aegon is fake (he was saved by Varys, but died of the Grey Plague just as Serra did). Varys and Illyrio are (for whatever reason) true Targaryen loyalists. They think Aegon was Azor Ahai, but hope they are wrong. They are adjust their plan, use Illyrio's son as fake Aegon to come up with a consort for Daenerys and bet on her. It makes somewhat sense that they would give the eggs to Daenerys.

3. Aegon is not genuine. Varys and Illyrio are (for whatever reason) true Blackfyre loyalists. They think Aegon might be Azor Ahai. It makes no sense that they would believe this, considering the prophecy talk going on over there in KL which was overheard by Varys. And it makes no sense whatsoever that they would give the eggs to Daenerys.

4. Aegon is genuine or not. But Illyrio and Varys believe in the Azor Ahai thing and believe or think Daenerys might be One. Then it makes sense to give the eggs to her, but it makes little sense that they would marry her to Drogo instead of pampering her at Pentos and save her for Aegon. The only explanation why they would send her into the unknown would be that if they thought her potential of becoming Azor Ahai needed her to live on her own in the wilderness.

5. Aegon is not genuine. Varys and Illyrio have a plan no one really understands completely at this point but the goal is to create a lasting peace in Westeros 'for the children'. They do not believe of care about the Azor Ahai prophecy. Aegon is not of noble birth but merely Illyrio's son by a commoner with valyrian looks. It would still make no sense for them to give the eggs to Daenerys instead of Aegon as they would not believe that Dany could/would hatch them. So why the heck don't give them to the fake Targaryen pretender. Aegon cannot have enough trinkets to lend credibility to his claim in this scenario.

As to Illyrio having to be a Blackfyre in the Blackfyre scenario:

I doubt that Serra alone would be enough. Only if Illyrio is a Blackfyre, too, would it make sense for Illyrio to sacrifice his one son for this grand scheme. He has to give him up, make 'the lad' believe he is somebody else, and cannot know things will go as they are planned.

I guess Varys and Serra could work as well, but then Illyrio must have been a rather decent and loyal guy to go along with that. He would lose his son and can only expect more or less speculative gain in the not-so-near-future.