Is it obscene how bad things are for Danys prospects of retaking the Throne?

[total1402]

Her father was insane and made sure that nobody from House Stark, Beratheon, Lannister, Arryn and Tully would ever want her on the throne. Tyrell puts itself with the Lannisters leaving only Martell who are gonna be pissed when they find out that Quentyn is dead by dragonfire.

In secret those few Targ loyalists were gathered around Aegon like JC n Varys.

The Targ fleet on Dragonstone was wiped out by a storm forcing them off a viable base in Westeros.

Darry died and prevented the formation of a court in exile. They thus become beggars earning contempt from the Westerosi lords.

She get Khal Drogo on side but then he dies and she back to being a beggar.

She then gets 3 useless dragons that are too young to do anything. Nobody in all the world wants to cut a deal that doesn’t involve her handing one of them over; in other words an impossible demand. This is despite the fact that seizing Westeros (very possible with 3 dragons given their established ability) would be a lucrative venture. It also earns her a bunch of fearsome enemies which despise dragons. They include: the Maesters, the Braavosi who hate dragons despite being escaped slaves that might have made then like her later actions, the Faceless Men who also hate dragons coz, you know, Euron later King of the Iron Islands who sends a whole fleet to steal her dragons and of course the Warlocks of Qarth.

Her dragons, when they do grow, are uncontrollable and cause her trouble in Mereen to the point where she locks them up. She can’t use them in battle and one of them actually kills a potential ally in Quentyn.

In fact overall the dragons have been more trouble than they are worth until this point. It might be different with Drogon. But I feel Martin has set up the dragons to be stolen or removed early on. She might get them back but she won’t have that advantage Aegon enjoyed.

YG or new Aegon has also hovered up all potential Targ loyalists and sadly Dany is being plagued by visions of false Dragons; meaning they’ll come to blows. So anybody who might have backed the Targs won’t back her. Its also likely that Aegon and Doran; thinking shes dead might decide to marry Arriane to Aegon. This unfortunate turn of events will be the straw which along with Aegon not aiding her and Tyrions word will convince her that Aegon is a Blackfyre.

She gets the Unsullied. Great. Then every, single, other power in the East declares war on her and deploys such numbers of troops and ships that her free companies desert her and she is trapped in Mereen. They are also no use against the Sons of the Harpy or disease which has just happened to have broken out at the right moment.

Her “army” of slaves, are little more than a rabble who are more of a liability than anything useful. Eating her supplies, attacking people who’ve helped her and again; talk of revolt in Volantis only convinces the other cities she doesn’t want to attack that they must crush Daenerys.

Mereen is the single worst city to conquer. The land is barren and can’t produce wealth. Its entire economy was based on slaving and pit-fighting; they have nothing else to trade. Both barbaric and sick customs. In order to placate these people Dany tries and fails to do so. Ghiscari have an ancient enmity towards Valyrians and Dragons. They hate that she is going to impoverish them by ending slavery since the city has no other source of revenue; again making it the worst city in the world to conquer if you want to free slaves. Any hopes she had at peace or reconciliation anyway are dashed because the Yunkai want revenge and the last lord that wanted peace is killed by the Red Flux.

However, this experience of failing to use peaceful means has convinced her that she can only be a violent conqueror and use force to get what she wants n make the world better. Other characters like Jon in ADWD succeed in peaceful means, reconciling different cultures and bringing them in. However Jon had a much easier culture of “noble Savages” to work with who were just freedom loving folk that wanted to escape the Others. Aside from a few bigoted conspirators he achieves what Dany could not and became a better person for it. Dany was given an impossible situation and an impossible culture which is meant to be repulsive; yet shes expected to reconcile it with her escaped slaves. The result of this is that Dany could well end up becoming a butcher Queen in order to break the Essosi and will fill Westerosi with horror at the prospect of her return.

This will be made worse when we consider the potential allies she has been or might acquire on her travels (if they survive which is by no means certain). Jorah Mormont who broke the Kings Laws. Tyrion the Dwarf, who murdered his own father and good King Joffrey. Victarion, the butcher of Lannisport and notorious Ironborn pirate Lord. Moqorro, a fire priest who preaches shes a messiah. This will only make the Church hate her, think she practices Dark Magic and will be taken as a sign of megalomania/madness even if she doesn’t adopt Rhollor worship. Then you have the Unsullied; evil eunuchs. Dothraki, vile pillaging marauders. Everyone will think that shes the Mad Kings Daughter and has come to reap vengeance on them. Regardless of her actual motives towards what she’ll do which have been left deliberately vague by Martin during the series. Quentyn could have been a good help and she would have married him. But he HAD to arrive at the worst possible moment. Not when Dany was in Qarth. Not before she was in Astapor. He arrives when she is promised to another and dug into Mereen.

Then we have the issues about her separation from Westeros. In terms of scale Westeros is Europe and shes in India for most of the series. An ocean bigger than the Atlantic makes sea travel almost impossible if you want to move a big army. Vic lost a third of his ships and Aegon had his own scattered on the Storm Coast and Stepstones. Well then theres land? No. Theres a demon infested wasteland that blocks the way and makes a March suicidal. Literally, she has to march her armies through the Chaos Wastes if this were Warhammer in order to get to Westeros. Even if she were to get to the Free Cities she then has the issue of getting boats. Nobody will just give her them since she needs hundreds in order to bring a big enough army across so she’ll have to fight even more enemies. Even then, she’d probably never get the quantity or quality of ships to pull it off. Whats worst about this geographical WTF distance is that it means she can’t base her campaign on events in Westeros. Hence, she misses the opportunity to go to Westeros during Cersei’s rule when she might have been able to get people/Lords on side. Instead Aegon took the glory.

Oh and to cap it all off. Westeros might have an extreme version of Salic Law so that no woman may inherit ever unless you argue that shes the only Targ in existence.

What I’am trying to say is that Martin really is stretching how much of an uphill battle it can possibly be for one person to retake a throne (a fething Warpstorm!). We’re supposed to believe that a situation has developed where she will be opposed by everybody in Westeros, that all her allies will literally be “the scum of the earth” and that all of her “plot gifts” have been more trouble than they were worth; that even moving to Westeros is nigh impossible due to geography. Some people say that its not believable that she could have had it that good; but I can’t for the life of me understand how such a set of circumstance or context could be that against a female Targ regaining the Iron Throne. Its like Danys the character with a great future and always will be since things always take a disastrous turn for the worse.

[Rhaegar Targaryen's Ghost]

I think at this point she needs to put her faith in the Ironborn helping her reclaim the throne. there is a small chance of the martells, but i think greyjoy will be the key. and seeing as Euron comes across as the most despised, godless man in the seven kingdoms, i think Dany's future looks a little sketchy. I think it would be in her best interest to stay in essos and rule. Maybe Aegon will control westeros, she can control essos, and together they can bring peace to both places.

[Kanon]

Just like how little chances the Lannisters had on Blackwater, or how little chances the NW had to defeat the wildlings... Hmm i see a pattern here.

[Ser Lepus]

Well, she wants to end slavery in Slaver's Bay and conquer the Seven Kingdoms. End slavery in a society whose economy and culture is entirely based on it and conquer a continent are kind of difficult things to do, so it's natural she finds many obstacles; if I tried to conquer a continent and change the economy and society of another continent, I would find obstacles too, wouldn't I?. If she had chosen humbler goals for herself, she would have it easier.

Dany has had great strokes of luck and received tools of great power that more than compensate for her defeats. If she just hatched dragons, stole the Unsullied army, forced the dothraki and ironborn to bend the knee and conquered the world without suffering setbacks, it would stretch too much our suspension of disbelief.

[Saci Targaryen]

She has Dragons dude... DRAGONS.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

I don't see how and why Dany could get the throne.

1. She has lost it. End of the story. Why should any lord stand by her side?

2. If YG=Aegon, he gets the Trone. If R+L=J (and YG isn't Aegon) he gets the Throne.

[E-Ro]

I dont understand, do you just want her to walk into westeros and everyone bends the knee to her? Not sure what your point is, yes conquering westeros is hard, why would that be different for dany?

[Brony Stark]

She has Dragons dude... DRAGONS.

Baby dragons... compared to the 100 year old (or older) Balerion the Black Dread.

ETA.

OP: You've just about covered every reason Dany won't sit on the Iron Throne. Thank you.

Ironborn are useless fighters on land.

If she brings her freemen (they might follow her) she'll be bringing a huge amount of new religions in. If the faith hated R'hllor wait till they meet the Unsullied's goddess, the Ghis dieties, Dothraki star gods, the Lambmen's Great Shepard.

Dothraki won't stop murpillaping.

[Third World King]

Just like how little chances the Lannisters had on Blackwater, or how little chances the NW had to defeat the wildlings... Hmm i see a pattern here.

I like it.

OP just convinced me that Daenerys Stormborn of House Targaryen will be Queen in Westeros. Eye of the tiger style!

[Lana]

I don't see how and why Dany could get the throne.

1. She has lost it. End of the story. Why should any lord stand by her side?

2. If YG=Aegon, he gets the Trone. If R+L=J (and YG isn't Aegon) he gets the Throne.

1. Dragons, good intentions, and undisputed Targaryen legitimacy.

2. YG and Jon's legitimacy may never be proven. All of them, including Dany, have a fair chance of kicking the bucket too.

As for the OP, Dany's enemies thus far have been comically bad villains. I have not doubted she would triumph over them. For the sake of a good story, I'm glad that she'll have to face some challenges in Westeros that requires more than blood and fire to overcome.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

1. Dragons, good intentions, and undisputed Targaryen legitimacy.

2. YG and Jon's legitimacy may never be proven. All of them, including Dany, have a fair chance of kicking the bucket too.

Baby Dragons,she is insane, lost the throne lost the claim.

Why should people believe that she is a Targ and not a Velaryon or Blackfyre?

[total1402]

I dont understand, do you just want her to walk into westeros and everyone bends the knee to her? Not sure what your point is, yes conquering westeros is hard, why would that be different for dany?

Theres difficult. Then theres putting a warpstorm in the way. Theres, a few powers like the Yunkai resisting her. Then theres a continent at war. This is like if she invaded the Holy Lands as a Crusader and you had Muslim States as far afield as North Africa, Pakistan and Central Asia coming to stop her with all their strength. Historically did not happen; none of the distant Muslim powers gave a shit to go to war. Theres, her family did some bad things which she needs to overcome and nobody in the verse would ever want her on the throne and throwing situations which only make that opinion worse. So she won't have any allies in Westeros. Theres a bit of fear about her dragons. Then theres having several major magical and poltical power blocs who are inherently opposed to Dragons due to canon; including one like Braavos that would have been interested in helping her vs slavers.

Martin made a context that is SO unfavourable that it almost beggars belief (a bloody warpstrom). I mean, rulers have returned with nothing in terms of military force and on the back of humiliating military defeat; to the great aclaim of their own people. A good example of this would be Napoleon who returned from Elba with 2000 soldiers and all of France swept him back into power. The army refused to fire on him, the Marshalls defected from the Bourbon monarchy which was seen as a puppet government. Martin went above and beyond mere realistic difficulty in terms of putting across the obstacles Dany had to overcome and the problems with her supposed "gifts" like the Dragons n Unsullied.

[total1402]

1. Dragons, good intentions, and undisputed Targaryen legitimacy.

2. YG and Jon's legitimacy may never be proven. All of them, including Dany, have a fair chance of kicking the bucket too.

As for the OP, Dany's enemies thus far have been comically bad villains. I have not doubted she would triumph over them. For the sake of a good story, I'm glad that she'll have to face some challenges in Westeros that requires more than blood and fire to overcome.

1-As Kevin n Pycelle conversation showed people aren't that scared of Dragons. Nobody will believe her good intentions and the situation in Essos/her own company will convince many of this. Nobody cares about legitimacy "Power rests where people believe it does".

Shes enemies with EVERYBODY. Including some dangerous ones like the Maesters, FM, Warlocks and every Knight/Lord in Westeros. Much of which isn't because of anything shes done but because she is a female Targ with dragons and those people hate all of those things.

[E-Ro]

Theres difficult. Then theres putting a warpstorm in the way. Theres, a few powers like the Yunkai resisting her. Then theres a continent at war. This is like if she invaded the Holy Lands as a Crusader and you had Muslim States as far afield as North Africa, Pakistan and Central Asia coming to stop her with all their strength. Historically did not happen; none of the distant Muslim powers gave a shit to go to war. Theres, her family did some bad things which she needs to overcome and nobody in the verse would ever want her on the throne and throwing situations which only make that opinion worse. So she won't have any allies in Westeros. Theres a bit of fear about her dragons. Then theres having several major magical and poltical power blocs who are inherently opposed to Dragons due to canon; including one like Braavos that would have been interested in helping her vs slavers.

Martin made a context that is SO unfavourable that it almost beggars belief (a bloody warpstrom). I mean, rulers have returned with nothing in terms of military force and on the back of humiliating military defeat; to the great aclaim of their own people. A good example of this would be Napoleon who returned from Elba with 2000 soldiers and all of France swept him back into power. The army refused to fire on him, the Marshalls defected from the Bourbon monarchy which was seen as a puppet government. Martin went above and beyond mere realistic difficulty in terms of putting across the obstacles Dany had to overcome and the problems with her supposed "gifts" like the Dragons n Unsullied.

I dont think the napolean analogy works here. No one in westeros knows dany, and they all hated her father. Is it so hard to belive that few would want to ally with her? And all slavers bay going against her is not so unbelivable becaus they fear her and she has shown to be a pain in the ass. They want her dead, and quick.

[total1402]

I dont think the napolean analogy works here. No one in westeros knows dany, and they all hated her father. Is it so hard to belive that few would want to ally with her? And all slavers bay going against her is not so unbelivable becaus they fear her and she has shown to be a pain in the ass. They want her dead, and quick.

Yes but thats the thing. You're saying it should be difficult/nigh impossible. But Martin has made a load of things (a bloody warpstorm) and made a mercilessly unforgiving context that makes Dany returning to Westeros impossible and so that everyone will hate her even if she does. Napoleon is an example of a successful restoration helped by people wanting their Emperor back (before Waterloo obviously which was a "close run thing"). I mean the man allegedly stood in front of several thousand muskets trained on him and asked if they wanted to shoot their Emperor. Instead they joined him with open arms. So real life does turn up things like glorious returns. Life isn't a Song but people have an aweful habit of thinking they're in one and sometimes do impulsive things like taking on the Coalition which just hammered France.

Being afraid of someone entails a degree of apprehension or a belief that you might actually lose. The Sons of the Harepy have actually behaved in a way which suggests they're totally unafraid of her and so determined to remove her that they'll risk their families lives. The same might be said about the Yunkai wanting to take on the Unsullied or her dragons. Granted events conspire to neutralise both these factors but the Yunkish aren't aware of this; nor are the Ghiscari. Their persistence after being crushed makes little sense and only works out so well due to events inside Mereen.

I suppose Martin has kept back from giving a sense of what Westeros will think about Dany. We might find out next book but IMO Aegon will dominate thoughts of Targs so we probs won't. But my gut feeling is that the Westerosi will make a moral stand against Dany and condemn her as evil.

[The Mother of The Others]

Maybe the writer felt that having dragons was so much of an advantage for Dany that it was going to be a cakewalk for her..... unless he added in all of this super-daunting adversity for her to overcome.

So now her "Difficulty Level" has been adjusted so that her chances are about the same as for a "normal conquerer without dragons."

[LordBloodraven]

Dany has to make her mind on what she wants, first. She feels she has to go to Westeros more as a duty toward her family than anything else. It's pretty clear that she has a flawed view of Westeros and has refused to be told hard truths by Barristan Selmy.

Right now, she's more concerned about the fates of the slaves and remodeling Ghiscari culture and society than the Iron throne and Westeros. It's people like Viserys, Illyrio, Jorah Mormont, Barristan Selmy, Quentyn Martell, who are pushing her to go to Westeros. Dany seems to have other priorities.

[total1402]

Dany has to make her mind on what she wants, first. She feels she has to go to Westeros more as a duty toward her family than anything else. It's pretty clear that she has a flawed view of Westeros and has refused to be told hard truths by Barristan Selmy.

Right now, she's more concerned about the fates of the slaves and remodeling Ghiscari culture and society than the Iron throne and Westeros. It's people like Viserys, Illyrio, Jorah Mormont, Barristan Selmy, Quentyn Martell, who are pushing her to go to Westeros. Dany seems to have other priorities.

Shes not trying to do two things at once. Its not a two fronts thing. Personally I think she'll find the imperative once somebody tells her how bad things are in Westeros due to the War. I don't know. If Arya were to somehow meet her and tell her about the Riverlands, the Red Wedding and the scale of the slaughter. In Danys eyes this would be because nobody agrees on the legitimate King and the squabbling of over-mighty subjects. Tyrion could also figure how to get her to do this. So she'd then have a much greater incentive to go to Westeros. But at the minute she doesn't see the need to hurry and is only dimply aware of events in Westeros.Therefore she has focused on Essos. But shes floundering in Essos and not doing any better for focusing there. In fact, at least in Westeros she doesn't have to overcome geographical problems and has the love of the freed slaves. She won't have the love of anybody in Westeros and its a much greater problem than Essos. Hence, I don't get how focusing on Westeros would help her cause.

[LordBloodraven]

Shes not trying to do two things at once. Its not a two fronts thing. Personally I think she'll find the imperative once somebody tells her how bad things are in Westeros due to the War. I don't know. If Arya were to somehow meet her and tell her about the Riverlands, the Red Wedding and the scale of the slaughter. In Danys eyes this would be because nobody agrees on the legitimate King and the squabbling of over-mighty subjects. Tyrion could also figure how to get her to do this. So she'd then have a much greater incentive to go to Westeros. But at the minute she doesn't see the need to hurry and is only dimply aware of events in Westeros.Therefore she has focused on Essos. But shes floundering in Essos and not doing any better for focusing there. In fact, at least in Westeros she doesn't have to overcome geographical problems and has the love of the freed slaves. She won't have the love of anybody in Westeros and its a much greater problem than Essos. Hence, I don't get how focusing on Westeros would help her cause.

So she should go back to Westeros because people are telling her how things are bad, back at home? Talk about entitlement and messiah complex. The point is that if she wanted to go to Westeros, she should have gone after she had the Unsullied or just after Qarth. Conquering Meereen and learning how to rule there was a bad idea. She could learn in Westeros, surrounded by devoted and competent advisers. One can never become the perfect leader so I think, learning to rule a realm in Meereen wasn't bright. And it ended catastrophously since we have an epidemia, a besieged city and a missing leader right now. She'll come back but what she'll do then? Leave for Westeros, given Meeren's bad state? What will happen to those that call her Mhysa? Is she to let them there, or bring them to Westeros? Those guys do not even speak english so I think it will create more demographic tension/civil war than peace and prosperity. Westeros has been ravaged by the War of the 5 Kings and staples must be rare. I don't see the poor northerner or riverlander sharing bread with the Ghiscari/Dothraki that doesn't even speak his tongue. I think she'll stay there for a while, perhaps forever. She just cannot pack her bag and go

[BannermanOfDorne]

Maybe the writer felt that having dragons was so much of an advantage for Dany that it was going to be a cakewalk for her..... unless he added in all of this super-daunting adversity for her to overcome.

So now her "Difficulty Level" has been adjusted so that her chances are about the same as for a "normal conquerer without dragons."

Haha, yeah I do agree with that.

She's had some major setbacks but those dragons are still a huge plus.