Stannis wrote the Pink Letter. (Updated)

[SeanF]

The Pink Letter is definitely mysterious, but I'm not convinced that Stannis is the author, for the reasons that Lummel gives.

Yet, I have my doubts it was written by Ramsay either, although clearly, it's been written by someone who is familiar with Ramsay and his behaviour. The tone doesn't sound like that of someone who's just won a battle, but rather someone who's lost a battle, or is in trouble in some way. It's angry and petulant, rather than gloating and triumphant.

It seems designed to provoke a defiant reaction from Jon, rather than to cow him. Clearly, there was no chance of him handing over Val, Mance's son, Selyse, Shireen, and Melisandre (I'm not sure how you'd go about handing over a powerful sorceress against her will, anyway). I think the person who wrote it expected Jon to react in exactly the way that he did.

The comment about seven days' battle can't be right; the forces aren't large enough. In the light of the spoiler chapter, it's very hard to see Ramsay winning, given that Karstark's treachery has now been exposed. If Ramsay had won, then it's probable that "Arya" and Theon would have been recaptured, although possibly Stannis may have had Theon executed before the battle.

The comment about Stannis' "red whore" is curious. How many people would know that Stannis and Melisandre were lovers? Certainly not Ramsay, and probably not Mance Rayder either.

[three-eyed monkey]

The Pink Letter is definitely mysterious, but I'm not convinced that Stannis is the author, for the reasons that Lummel gives.

Yet, I have my doubts it was written by Ramsay either, although clearly, it's been written by someone who is familiar with Ramsay and his behaviour. The tone doesn't sound like that of someone who's just won a battle, but rather someone who's lost a battle, or is in trouble in some way. It's angry and petulant, rather than gloating and triumphant.

It seems designed to provoke a defiant reaction from Jon, rather than to cow him. Clearly, there was no chance of him handing over Val, Mance's son, Selyse, Shireen, and Melisandre (I'm not sure how you'd go about handing over a powerful sorceress against her will, anyway). I think the person who wrote it expected Jon to react in exactly the way that he did.

The comment about seven days' battle can't be right; the forces aren't large enough. In the light of the spoiler chapter, it's very hard to see Ramsay winning, given that Karstark's treachery has now been exposed. If Ramsay had won, then it's probable that "Arya" and Theon would have been recaptured, although possibly Stannis may have had Theon executed before the battle.

The comment about Stannis' "red whore" is curious. How many people would know that Stannis and Melisandre were lovers? Certainly not Ramsay, and probably not Mance Rayder either.

Mel has been described as Stannis' red whore a few times in the books, even as early as AGoT if I remember, by Kevan Lannister in Tywin's pavillion before the the fighting kicked off in the Riverlands. I'll have to dig for the quote, sorry. (Damned old-fashioned paper books.)

But it is a curious comment, you're right. "I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore." I have a theory on this line too but didn't put it in the op because it's thin, very thin, so be warned. I think this is a sort of code for Mel, a hidden message in the letter that only she would understand. It occured to me when reading Mel tell Jon about the glamour she used to disguise Mance. "The bones help," said Melisandre. "The bones remember. The strongest glamours are built of such things. A dead man's boots, a hank of hair, a bag of fingerbones." So what is Stannis' magic sword glamour built on? It could be Azor Ahai's boots for all I know, but my point is if someone took the sword from Stannis' dead hand would the glamour work? If Ramsay had it, would it be a magic sword, or would it just be a sword. Stannis might be telling Mel that he is not dead, not at the time of writing the letter at least.

And I agree, the letter is not written by Ramsay. If it was I would expect it to be sealed with a button of hard wax, appended with the signatures of Lady Dunstin, Lady Cerwyn, the four Ryswells, and the mark of Whorsebane Umber, and possibly even contain some flayed skin, Mance's most like. Nor do I think Ramsay would let it be known to that his bride has escaped him, not under the shrewd cold eyes of Roose. I believe the Bolton's would be foolish to antagonise Jon. Roose knows his alliance is not trustworthy and does not want to compete with the son of Eddard Stark for their loyalty. In my opinion that's why, when Ramsay sends a letter to Deepwood Motte conveying the fall of Moat Cailin and the upcoming wedding at Winterfell, he styles himself Lord of Winterfell. When he sends the same letter to Castle Black, he merely signs it Lord of Hornwood.

[Mladen]

Asha let the maester in Deepwood Motte take the letter to Lady Glover, that much is confirmed in the text: Asha shoved the letter into the maester's hands. "Here. Let her (Sybelle Glover) find some solace here if she can. You have my leave to go."

So when Stannis takes the castle the letter is with Lady Glover. We also know that Stannis saw the letter because when he writes to Jon from Deepwood Motte he mentions, "And word has come to us the Roose Bolton moves toward Winterfell with all his power, there to wed his bastard to your half-sister."

And that would be proof? The fact he saw the letter? I mean, you do understand that nothing fits into this. It`s farfetched as you can have. You can`t explain how Stannis would know about Theon`s nickname, or Mance, you can`t explain whether there was a seal or not, not to mention that Stannis would leave his family unprotected in case of an attack... Too many things this theory obviously missed...

[SeanF]

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And I agree, the letter is not written by Ramsay. If it was I would expect it to be sealed with a button of hard wax, appended with the signatures of Lady Dunstin, Lady Cerwyn, the four Ryswells, and the mark of Whorsebane Umber, and possibly even contain some flayed skin, Mance's most like. Nor do I think Ramsay would let it be known to that his bride has escaped him, not under the shrewd cold eyes of Roose. I believe the Bolton's would be foolish to antagonise Jon. Roose knows his alliance is not trustworthy and does not want to compete with the son of Eddard Stark for their loyalty. In my opinion that's why, when Ramsay sends a letter to Deepwood Motte conveying the fall of Moat Cailin and the upcoming wedding at Winterfell, he styles himself Lord of Winterfell. When he sends the same letter to Castle Black, he merely signs it Lord of Hornwood.

It may have been written by Ramsay, but a Ramsay who is either telling a lot of lies, or who is seriously misinformed about what's going on,

[Leto]

And that would be proof? The fact he saw the letter? I mean, you do understand that nothing fits into this. It`s farfetched as you can have. You can`t explain how Stannis would know about Theon`s nickname, or Mance, you can`t explain whether there was a seal or not, not to mention that Stannis would leave his family unprotected in case of an attack... Too many things this theory obviously missed...

Theon told Stannis his nickname new name, and most likely about Mance and the spearwives since he had their help escaping. The letter was sealed with a smudge of pink wax, doesn't sound like there was a flayed man in the smudge.

[Mladen]

Theon told Stannis his nickname new name, and most likely about Mance and the spearwives since he had their help escaping. The letter was sealed with a smudge of pink wax, doesn't sound like there was a flayed man in the smudge.

Yes, but for the letter to arrive to the Wall at the time, it needed to be sent somewhere immediately after Theon`s escape, and before his chapter in AWOW. Timeline and omitted informations we don`t know Stannis knows doesn`t fit.

[three-eyed monkey]

And that would be proof? The fact he saw the letter? I mean, you do understand that nothing fits into this. It`s farfetched as you can have. You can`t explain how Stannis would know about Theon`s nickname, or Mance, you can`t explain whether there was a seal or not, not to mention that Stannis would leave his family unprotected in case of an attack... Too many things this theory obviously missed...

You said we don't know where the letter went. I explained that we do. Asha gave it to the Maester and allowed him bring it to Lady Glover. I think it very likely she would share the news with her liberator, and in fact Stannis writes to Jon to tell him as much. It might have been a verbal telling, so perhaps Stannis did not see the letter, but it is very plausible that he did.

Theon tells Stannis "He wants his Reek." All Stannis need ask is who is Reek. Stannis strikes me as the type of commander that would want to know all he can about his enemy and I don't think he hung Theon in chains just for some small talk, not when he has come straight from the enemy camp, do you?

I already explained how Stannis might figure out that Abel and the washerwomen were Mance and six wildlings, twice.

As for the seal, we can only go with the text. And the letter was sealed with a smear of hard pink wax. You are the one who came up with the Bolton stamp. There is no mention of it in the book. So maybe you're the one that's missing too many things, or adding them in this case.

And Stannis best way to defend his familly is to win the coming battle and take Winterfell in my opinion, but clearly we differ in opinion. But there's nothing wrong with that.

[Leto]

Yes, but for the letter to arrive to the Wall at the time, it needed to be sent somewhere immediately after Theon`s escape, and before his chapter in AWOW. Timeline and omitted informations we don`t know Stannis knows doesn`t fit.

Yes, so if Stannis sent it he would have sent it in that window. What is it that doesn't add up? We don't know the timeline for the theon chapter.

[three-eyed monkey]

Yes, but for the letter to arrive to the Wall at the time, it needed to be sent somewhere immediately after Theon`s escape, and before his chapter in AWOW. Timeline and omitted informations we don`t know Stannis knows doesn`t fit.

GRRM says even though Theons chapter will be at the start of Winds, the events within take place before the end of dance.

http://grrm.livejour...com/257002.html

EDIT: thanks to Slayer of Lies for the link.

[SeanF]

Even if Theon and "Arya" had got away before the battle, there's no way that they could be more than a few miles away. They wouldn't be close to the Wall, which is hundreds of miles from Winterfell.

[Mladen]

You said we don't know where the letter went. I explained that we do. Asha gave it to the Maester and allowed him bring it to Lady Glover. I think it very likely she would share the news with her liberator, and in fact Stannis writes to Jon to tell him as much. It might have been a verbal telling, so perhaps Stannis did not see the letter, but it is very plausible that he did.

Theon tells Stannis "He wants his Reek." All Stannis need ask is who is Reek. Stannis strikes me as the type of commander that would want to know all he can about his enemy and I don't think he hung Theon in chains just for some small talk, not when he has come straight from the enemy camp, do you?

I already explained how Stannis might figure out that Abel and the washerwomen were Mance and six wildlings, twice.

As for the seal, we can only go with the text. And the letter was sealed with a smear of hard pink wax. You are the one who came up with the Bolton stamp. There is no mention of it in the book. So maybe you're the one that's missing too many things, or adding them in this case.

And Stannis best way to defend his familly is to win the coming battle and take Winterfell in my opinion, but clearly we differ in opinion. But there's nothing wrong with that.

No, the problem is that you invented the scenario that isn`t working by any logic. Ok, Lady Glover showed him letter, and then, by you, he carried the letter all the way to Winterfell (in which time letter was never mentioned) and then he sent it to Jon. This isn`t possible in any situation. Either there is a premeditation from Stannis that lasted all the way, which would also be more stupid if he didn`t sent the letter from Deepwood Motte, or basically you have to admit that there is no way Stannis would know he would need a letter for a stamp.

GRRM says even though Theons chapter will be at the start of Winds, the events within take place before the end of dance.

http://grrm.livejour...com/257002.html

EDIT: thanks to Slayer of Lies for the link.

I know that. But, it`s unlikely that Theon chapter occured before the letter was sent.

[three-eyed monkey]

No, the problem is that you invented the scenario that isn`t working by any logic. Ok, Lady Glover showed him letter, and then, by you, he carried the letter all the way to Winterfell (in which time letter was never mentioned) and then he sent it to Jon. This isn`t possible in any situation. Either there is a premeditation from Stannis that lasted all the way, which would also be more stupid if he didn`t sent the letter from Deepwood Motte, or basically you have to admit that there is no way Stannis would know he would need a letter for a stamp.

I know that. But, it`s unlikely that Theon chapter occured before the letter was sent.

I'm saying Stannis has the letter Ramsay sent to Deepwood Motte in his possesion, yes. I'm saying the broken seal is the source of the smear of wax the pink letter is sealed with. I don't believe he formulated the pink letter until after his meeting with Theon. To make it look authentic he needed pink sealing wax, not something that is readily available in a blizzard in the Wolfswood, so he uses the old seal from the real Ramsay letter. It is speculation, sure, but it does not lack in logic.

Why is it unlikely that the Theon chapter occured before the letter was sent when GRRM says it occured before some of the events at the end of Dance, i.e. Jon getting the letter.

[rejndjer]

stannis did not write the letter, because mance did it.

seriously, stannis would use subterfuge to get an army of wildlings? yea rite that would win him allegiance of northeners.

[Inquisitor Glokta]

No, the problem is that you invented the scenario that isn`t working by any logic. Ok, Lady Glover showed him letter, and then, by you, he carried the letter all the way to Winterfell (in which time letter was never mentioned) and then he sent it to Jon. This isn`t possible in any situation. Either there is a premeditation from Stannis that lasted all the way, which would also be more stupid if he didn`t sent the letter from Deepwood Motte, or basically you have to admit that there is no way Stannis would know he would need a letter for a stamp.

The letter from Deepwood is not necessary at all, Theon could have provided all the necessary information and as to the wax: Stannis could have gotten the pink wax through another source, mentioned explicitly in the Theon sample. Since the thread is not in the WOW section, i will not go into further detail here.

I know that. But, it`s unlikely that Theon chapter occured before the letter was sent.

"The chronology, as usual, is tricky. This chapter will be found eventually at the beginning of WINDS, but as you will be able to tell from context, it actually takes place before some of the chapters at the end of DANCE" - Quote GRRM

Jons last chapter in ADWD is the 3. to last (not counting epilogue), so it is very likely that the Theon sample takes place before the last Jon chapter.

[Mladen]

I'm saying Stannis has the letter Ramsay sent to Deepwood Motte in his possesion, yes. I'm saying the broken seal is the source of the smear of wax the pink letter is sealed with. I don't believe he formulated the pink letter until after his meeting with Theon. To make it look authentic he needed pink sealing wax, not something that is readily available in a blizzard in the Wolfswood, so he uses the old seal from the real Ramsay letter. It is speculation, sure, but it does not lack in logic.

Why is it unlikely that the Theon chapter occured before the letter was sent when GRRM says it occured before some of the events at the end of Dance, i.e. Jon getting the letter.

The point is that content of the letter is what clearly indicates Stannis isn`t the author. Not mentioning the Reek, you have still problem with Mance. Also, we have no mention of Asha`s letter anywhere near Stannis. We know Stannis knows the content but nothing more, we even know Theon Stannis doesn`t know Abel`s true identity. And, finally, we have timeline. Stannis had to send a letter after Theon`s escape and confession, if he indeed managed to say him everything about Reek, Mance etc. And although, Theon`s chapter happened before Jon`s stabbing, we don`t know whether two events happened simultaniously, or is there a difference of couple of days. Then the ravens Stannis have are all trained for Winterfell, not Castle Black. As much as you try, it`s simply not working.

[Barty]

No, the problem is that you invented the scenario that isn`t working by any logic. Ok, Lady Glover showed him letter, and then, by you, he carried the letter all the way to Winterfell (in which time letter was never mentioned) and then he sent it to Jon. This isn`t possible in any situation. Either there is a premeditation from Stannis that lasted all the way, which would also be more stupid if he didn`t sent the letter from Deepwood Motte, or basically you have to admit that there is no way Stannis would know he would need a letter for a stamp.

I know that. But, it`s unlikely that Theon chapter occured before the letter was sent.

The letter doesn't matter any more - Stannis has the maester of the DreadFort who will almost certainly have the pink wax with him since the maesters are the ones who write all the letters anyways.

[three-eyed monkey]

stannis did not write the letter, because mance did it.

seriously, stannis would use subterfuge to get an army of wildlings? yea rite that would win him allegiance of northeners.

I agree that Mance is a strong candidate but I would have a few questions about him sending the letter. I don't know the answer to these questions so maybe someone could help me out here.

1. Can Mance write?

2. Considering that the game was up for the spearwives and by extention Abel too when Theon made his escape, could Mance have had time to write a letter with the whole castle most likely searching for him?

3. Could Mance get a raven and know which one was trained for Castle Black?

4. Could Mance have gained access to pink sealing wax?

These are the main reasons Mance falls down for me. If I was certain that he could do all of the above then I'd say yeah, a candidate for sure.

As for the wildlings, they are already being settled on the Gift and this is an army of wildlings led by the son of Eddard Stark. It's Jon that Stannis wants to come to Winterfell most of all, because he believes the northern lords will rally to Jon, as explained in the quote in the OP.

[Tenshi]

1) It might be good to put a spoiler tag on this thread. The WoW sample provides much info for the argument, after all.

Well structured argument, highly convincing. The writing style of the letter does seem to suit Stannis, and some pieces of info very few people would know.

As for Mance: two explanations. Either Stannis knew it was rattleshirt all along. He's not particularly religious, the show would mean little to him. Alternatively:

Given what he could have learned from Theon, Stannis should be able to solve that one. Might even be serious on the "you lied" line, then ;)

The only remaining question is, what is the motive? It seems very unlikely to me that Stannis wants Jon's forces for Winterfell; Bolton's forces are already on the way, and Stannis needs to gain the castle fast before he loses to the cold. I'm not sure how long it'd be to travel from castle black to Winterfell, but presumably far too long, even in good circumstances.

More so, while the letter ensures Jon must go south (he can't accept, and he can't refuse since Bolton supposedly will come for him), the rational course of action would be for Jon to come south alone (or with his own men, but not the Watch), just providing enough delay for Shireen/Selyse/Mel/Arya to get to Eastwatch, In other words, it's questionable how many troops he'd get for it. Thus one'd presume this is purely about Jon. Still, why? If he can arrive during the siege, he may know any secret ways in, weaknesses and so on. Having a Stark on his side would help... though Jon wouldn't like the deceit, which'd be hard to hide at that point.

Also, "tell his red whore" needs some explaining. Presumably Mel would see through it; she knows Stannis well enough to recognize his words, and would likely have foreseen such a "calamity". She'd need to know not to tell this to Jon... so I'd reckon Mel would have had to know upfront what to do. Which'd suit her foreknowledge of the letter.

[Inquisitor Glokta]

On the reasoning, of why he wrote the letter as a fake. Stannis didn't know if the raven might be intercepted by some of Rosse' men on it's way to the wall, in which case it would tell Roose that Ramsay won the battle.

Remember who is with Jeyne, the Iron Banker and Massey, both men of great import to Stannis. If he wouldn't get Jon marching for WF, maybe he could get him to send scouts south, who would pickup the party Stannis sent to the Wall.

Best case, he gets Jon (a son of Ned Stark) to march for WF. If Stannis sent the letter shortly before or after the battle i guess Jon would arrie a few days after Stannis. With the 'last' son of Ned Stark besides him and fArya gone from WF, Boltons claim becomes very weak. All it would need, would be a few Stark loyal guardsmen opening a smaller gate.

[WildBlood]

OP makes sense... Maybe Stannis did want Jon to get stabbed (or something similar) in hopes he would leave his vows behind, knowing that Mel would be there to bring him back, and send him on his way...