Stannis wrote the Pink Letter. (Updated)

[bemused]

I'm pretty sure that GRRM confirmed , not long after the release of the Theon chapter , that it takes place before Jon's last chapter in Dance.

I don't buy the blood sacrifice business, myself. Oh , I don't think there's any doubt that the first men practiced it , but there's a lot of doubt in my mind that the CoTF ever did , as a general rule. I don't buy into the Jojen paste theory , and I'm not sure that Bran's , "No, dont.." when he "witnesses" the sacrifice is incompatible with CoTF sentiment... I don't think the idea of blood sacrifice fits well with a belief system that views death as merely another part of creation's cycle , and whose idea of "gods" doesn't separate one from another , or name any of the multiple aspects. ( It may be that if they ever did - *ahem ... hammer* - it may have led to the current magical imbalance. ) ...If , e.g., we were talking about the Seven.. what might be pleasing to the warrior could be mightily offensive to the maiden or the mother... So I can't really see the old gods, collectively, finding blood sacrifice particularly edifying.

This makes me doubt that what Bran/Bloodraven , are clamoring for through the ravens is a sacrifice . I think it's more just that they want him taken before the tree.

I think the leaders of the Northerners in Stannis' army , at least ,have a much clearer idea of what Theon's culpability actually is , and of "Arya's" stand-in status , than they let on ( because of GNC involvement )... We've yet to hear their requests in the matter of Theon. We don't have a POV from any of them. We know what Stannis assumes they want.

Though Asha asks for Theon to be executed at the tree , she's trying to give Theon a quicker , less painful death. We don't know if this is her own idea or if she's had some guidance or suggestions from others . And if she has had some guidance , we don't know if it stems from a desire for Theon to be killed ,or a belief that Stannis will kill him , one way or another .

...... I'm thinking of Ned's philosophy of looking into a condemned man's eyes and hearing his last words..and I'm thinking of how ,when Jaqen swore by the gods to Arya in the godswood in Harrenhall, he placed his hand in the mouth of the weirwood to do it.....

Apart from Jaqen , we haven't yet seen an example of letting a man be judged by the old gods, or being asked or compelled to explain himself, or swear to his veracity before a weirwood .. we don't know what form ,or ritual would be required in the practice of the religion of the old gods...But I'm sure the Northern clansmen probably have a pretty good idea.

So I'm really looking forward to future developments. Right now , I'd be willing to bet in favour of Theon's chances of survival ( at any odds ;) ) , and that perhaps through Theon , the ravens , or both , Bran/Bloodraven will achieve more fluent , coherent communication than they've managed so far.

3-eyed monkey.. I'm going to try to locate my old posts ( might save me time and typing ) , or I'll retrace my steps. It might take some time... :)

[Frey family reunion]

I've only taken a casual interest in this thread because for some reason the author of the pink letter (and most Bolton related matters) does not resonate strongly for me. But I do have some questions and observations:

1) As for Stannis' knowledge of Ramsay's writing, it is strongly alluded earlier in ADWD that Stannis had been personally reading all of the correspondence with the other Northern lords, and I believe that included the Boltons.

2) Why is it out of the question that Melisandre would have conferred with Stannis about her plans to glamor Mance and send him to Winterfell? There may be a reason, I'm just having a hard time remembering the timelines as to the events that preceded Stannis' leaving the Wall for Winterfell.

3) While I agree with Mladen's theory that Stannis and Theon are probably about to be sacrificed to the Weirwoods, I don't necessarily think this has to do with Jon's resurrection, so I'm not sure how strong that evidence is against the OP's timeline.

4) I think the OP's strongest piece of evidence is Stannis warning to Justin Massey about hearing that he is dead.

5) I think the biggest problem is the time it would take Jon to get to Winterfell. I can't imagine that he could get there in enough time to help Stannis out considering the conditions they were in.

[three-eyed monkey]

5) I think the biggest problem is the time it would take Jon to get to Winterfell. I can't imagine that he could get there in enough time to help Stannis out considering the conditions they were in.

This is a very good question. I'm unsure about the travel time myself. Can't remember how long it took Jon and Tyrion to travel from Winterfell to Castle Black on the kingsroad in AGoT, and things would be slower in the conditions. I think Jon even mentions that the road is impassable in ADwD, but of course Stannis would not know that. In the King's Prize chapter we learn that it is 300 miles as the raven flies from Deepwood to Winterfell. Judging by the map there must be 600-700 miles of kingsroad between Winterfell and Castle Black. Mongol cavalry could cover 100 mi a day switching horses, Roman mounted infantry 60 mi a day in good conditions. The best Jon could hope to average in the conditions is probably 40mi a day, if the road is impassable then obviously he'd average 0. It would probably be a 20+ day journey. Not really the sort of time Stannis has to spare, as his army is not in a good condition to mount a siege. So gotta say you are right, this is the biggest problem. Well thought. All I can say is that Stannis, if he did write the letter, would have to allow that Jon might not march at all, in which case the travel-time wouldn't matter anyway, but what has he got to lose. (Maybe he is planning a siege and hoping Davos will turn up with some onions and salted cod?)

On the subject of travel, I found it strange that the Braavosi banker left Castle Black, went to Deepwood Motte, paid the Ironborn prisoners ransom to use them as guides, and then went to Winterfell, picked up Theon and Arya from crowfood Umber, and finally found their way back to Stannis camp, all before Stannis even got to Winerfell and despite Stannis decent lead. Stannis was preparing to march from Deepwood Motte according to the letter he sent Jon in Jon VII, while the banker only arrived at Castle Black with Queen Selyse and Shireen in Jon IX.

[Mladen]

@ Mladen. In my opinion, your blood sacrifice theory is daring, and I like that, but certainly not conclusive. If it turns out to be true I'll be the first to credit it with one of the best catches I've seen since coming to this forum.

The thing is we have been foreshadowed that Jon will be indeed revived in some CotF/First Men ritual. We first know that Melisandre saw Jon` face in flames, then Ghost`s and then his again. Also, we have foreshadowing regarding ice cages in the Wall where Jon`s body could be kept. And we have Mormont`s raven that has been quite useful in giving us hints of some events. You`ll find a lot of them in Jon Snow reread thread. Plus, we know Jon won`t be resurrected by Melisandre, like Beric or Catelyn. Then principle `only life can pay for life` (you have Lady/Bran situation). There are tons of proofs and foreshadowing that indicates that Jon would be resurrected by blood sacrifice, and not by some R`hllorian magic performed by Melisandre.

Now, I'll agree that that seems quite likely (when put on top of a tower of assumptions), but as to assigning the motive when we don't even know the timescale... that's a stretch. Especially when your supporting evidence doesn't actually appear to exist.

It could be a completely different reason and there's nothing in the quoted text to support anything specific.

Not that I entirely disagree (although I still think and hope Jon is dead for keeps), mind.

What supporting evidence and what bunch of asumptions? We do know basic timeline of this chapter. It basically happened simultaniously with Jon`s chapter. We also have Kevan`s and Dany`s chapters. GRRM is completely ambiguous with these things. Also, as I said, blood sacrifice is something that is heavily foreshadowed in Jon`s, Melisandre`s DWD POV chapters. As for JOn being dead for goods, I don`t think so. His story hasn`t ended, and even GRRM doesn`t think he is staying dead, which he almost spoilered in some of his interviews.

In the quoted text is showed many things. We already know connection of BR and ravens, even his origin is connected with ravens, his mother was Blackwood, so it`s normal to believe that just like Starks could warg direwolves, he can warg ravens. Also, he is 3EC, so I think that`s more than enough proof that he was talking through those ravens as much as he did speak many times from Mormont`s raven.

[three-eyed monkey]

The thing is we have been foreshadowed that Jon will be indeed revived in some CotF/First Men ritual. We first know that Melisandre saw Jon` face in flames, then Ghost`s and then his again. Also, we have foreshadowing regarding ice cages in the Wall where Jon`s body could be kept. And we have Mormont`s raven that has been quite useful in giving us hints of some events. You`ll find a lot of them in Jon Snow reread thread. Plus, we know Jon won`t be resurrected by Melisandre, like Beric or Catelyn. Then principle `only life can pay for life` (you have Lady/Bran situation). There are tons of proofs and foreshadowing that indicates that Jon would be resurrected by blood sacrifice, and not by some R`hllorian magic performed by Melisandre.

I'm favourable towards the idea of a blood sacrifice to the Old God's being connected to Jon's resurrection, and I agree that Bran or Bloodraven are warging the ravens, but I can't see how it ties the timelines together in canon fashion. Theon has not been sacrificed yet and Jon has not been resurrected yet, nor can we be 100% certain either or both will happen, likely as they seem. Jon's body might be stuffed in an ice cell while he roams around in Ghost, but for how long? We don't know. Stannis might behead Theon straight after the chapter from winds, or he might wait two days, time enough for a raven to carry the letter to Castle Black, and make the sacrifice before battle is joined with the Freys. Theon might even be granted a stay of execution and his arc could yet extend in the Asha/kingsmoot/Iron Isles direction.

[Mladen]

I'm favourable towards the idea of a blood sacrifice to the Old God's being connected to Jon's resurrection, and I agree that Bran or Bloodraven are warging the ravens, but I can't see how it ties the timelines together in canon fashion. Theon has not been sacrificed yet and Jon has not been resurrected yet, nor can we be 100% certain either or both will happen, likely as they seem. Jon's body might be stuffed in an ice cell while he roams around in Ghost, but for how long? We don't know. Stannis might behead Theon straight after the chapter from winds, or he might wait two days, time enough for a raven to carry the letter to Castle Black, and make the sacrifice before battle is joined with the Freys. Theon might even be granted a stay of execution and his arc could yet extend in the Asha/kingsmoot/Iron Isles direction.

Yes, you are right about that. But, sacrifice and resurrection will happen at the same time. And yes, at this moment we are speaking, Jon is most likely stuffed in ice cages, and is warging Ghost, which means that Jon has already received a letter. And that is what excludes Stannis as the author of the letter.

If the ravens are so exilirated, and are so `into` Stannis beheading Theon in front of Heart tree, it can mean only one thing. Jon is already dead, and ravens are signalizing that Stannis should do that so Jon could be safe. If it happened before Jon`s stabbing, why would they insist on `tree` and `Theon` , and we know Bran said `Theon` when he saw him through the eyes of Heart tree.

[Tenshi]

Yes, you are right about that. But, sacrifice and resurrection will happen at the same time. And yes, at this moment we are speaking, Jon is most likely stuffed in ice cages, and is warging Ghost, which means that Jon has already received a letter. And that is what excludes Stannis as the author of the letter.

If the ravens are so exilirated, and are so `into` Stannis beheading Theon in front of Heart tree, it can mean only one thing. Jon is already dead, and ravens are signalizing that Stannis should do that so Jon could be safe. If it happened before Jon`s stabbing, why would they insist on `tree` and `Theon` , and we know Bran said `Theon` when he saw him through the eyes of Heart tree.

Interesting point... however, to think about it....this seems to stand either way, doesn't it? Whichever way we look at it - barring visions which'd mess up any timeline argument - nobody could have sent the message before Theon's escape, since that information is required. As Theon's chapter would take place only days after that (basically, travel time, 3 days?), and news would have to travel 600(?) miles or so, how could Jon's chapter precede Theon's?

Any errors in that argument?

[three-eyed monkey]

I see your point, Mladen, and it's a good one. But can Bloodraven glimpse the future? Maybe the Old God's want payment up front? Take the Corn King myth, the sacrifice is made for a good harvest to come next year.

[JonathanTheBold]

It was sealed with a smear of wax. There is no mention of the Bolton seal, on either of the letters Jon recieved or the one sent to Deepwood Motte. They were sealed with a button of hard wax. Can you give a citation where the Bolton Seal is mentioned as having been pressed into the button of wax, because if you can I missed it.

And don't the Boltons distinguish their letters by the punk wax that only they use which would make a flayed man stamp superfluous

[Mladen]

Interesting point... however, to think about it....this seems to stand either way, doesn't it? Whichever way we look at it - barring visions which'd mess up any timeline argument - nobody could have sent the message before Theon's escape, since that information is required. As Theon's chapter would take place only days after that (basically, travel time, 3 days?), and news would have to travel 600(?) miles or so, how could Jon's chapter precede Theon's?

Any errors in that argument?

Yes, message is sent after Theon`s escape, and most likely a day or two after it. I don`t know how much ravens need to travel from Winterfell to Castle Black, but we know there is a long journey. And it would take 10-15 days most likely. Which means that sending a letter excludes Stannis. Jon`s chapter most likely happened at the same time with Theon`s. We don`t know exactly which chapters happened before Theon`s POV in aWOW. But we know Theon`s escape happened 15 days before Jon`s chapter, so it all fits that someone from Winterfell sent a letter.

I see your point, Mladen, and it's a good one. But can Bloodraven glimpse the future? Maybe the Old God's want payment up front? Take the Corn King myth, the sacrifice is made for a good harvest to come next year.

Well, he can, but we have Lady`s death and Bran`s revival happening in short period of time, almost simultainously, and many believe that she died so Bran could live. Also, BR`s future visions come from tree, and there is no Weirwood in CB where Jon`s stabbed.

[Tenshi]

Yes, message is sent after Theon`s escape, and most likely a day or two after it. I don`t know how much ravens need to travel from Winterfell to Castle Black, but we know there is a long journey. And it would take 10-15 days most likely. Which means that sending a letter excludes Stannis. Jon`s chapter most likely happened at the same time with Theon`s. We don`t know exactly which chapters happened before Theon`s POV in aWOW. But we know Theon`s escape happened 15 days before Jon`s chapter, so it all fits that someone from Winterfell sent a letter.

My apologies if I missed it, but where does that time frame come from? And seeing as Theon must've gone to Stannis as fast as possible and then some, on a 3 day distance with men who know winter... would those few days pose a serious problem?

[Mladen]

My apologies if I missed it, but where does that time frame come from? And seeing as Theon must've gone to Stannis as fast as possible and then some, on a 3 day distance with men who know winter... would those few days pose a serious problem?

There are some members that created official timeline. It`s immensly detailed, and the difference between Theon`s escape and Jon`s stabbing is 15 days. Let we say Theon`s journey lasts for couple of days 2,3. Then comes interrogation and creating a letter - another 1,2. And if raven needs 5 days to travel from Deepwood Motte, he would need 15 to travel from Winterfell and its surrounding to Castle Black. Which means that letter was sent immediately after Theon`s escape.

[Frey family reunion]

I see your point, Mladen, and it's a good one. But can Bloodraven glimpse the future? Maybe the Old God's want payment up front? Take the Corn King myth, the sacrifice is made for a good harvest to come next year.

Or perhaps your assumption that the "ravens" interest in sacrificing Stannis and Theon to the tree is linked to Jon's resurrection is false.

[Tenshi]

There are some members that created official timeline. It`s immensly detailed, and the difference between Theon`s escape and Jon`s stabbing is 15 days. Let we say Theon`s journey lasts for couple of days 2,3. Then comes interrogation and creating a letter - another 1,2. And if raven needs 5 days to travel from Deepwood Motte, he would need 15 to travel from Winterfell and its surrounding to Castle Black. Which means that letter was sent immediately after Theon`s escape.

Assuming I see the same time-line, your objection appears a circular argument: the whole reason there are 15 days, is a guess of how long the raven would take (note, some guesswork will be involved, so a day or two would already be thin ice). Indeed, it assumes the raven is sent after the Battle in the Snow (which is the logical conclusion if we'd think the letter is genuine, see below). 7 days "battle", 8 days raven flight. Theon's chapter is about 4 days prior to the battle, 11 days prior to the assassination, so I think my argument then stands.

Mind you, the letter makes clear that fArya and Theon are not among Stannis' army. Stannis would know that before the battle, obviously; anyone at Winterfell could only know that afterwards. So the issue is inverse.

[Mladen]

Assuming I see the same time-line, your objection appears a circular argument: the whole reason there are 15 days, is a guess of how long the raven would take (note, some guesswork will be involved, so a day or two would already be thin ice). Indeed, it assumes the raven is sent after the Battle in the Snow (which is the logical conclusion if we'd think the letter is genuine, see below). 7 days "battle", 8 days raven flight. Theon's chapter is about 4 days prior to the battle, 11 days prior to the assassination, so I think my argument then stands.

Mind you, the letter makes clear that fArya and Theon are not among Stannis' army. Stannis would know that before the battle, obviously; anyone at Winterfell could only know that afterwards. So the issue is inverse.

The thing would go like this:

Day 1: Theon`s escape

Day 3,4: Theon comes into Stannis encampent

Day 5,6: Interrogation, and for the sake of argument, Stannis sends a letter

Day 15: Jon gets the letter and later is stabbed.

So, we have 10 days for raven to bring Stannis` letter to the Wall. It`s almost impossible(given the distance between Wall and Winterfell). Since we don`t know exacty how much time Theon spent as Stannis` captor, we can`t for certainty say that Theon`s POV from WOW happened before Jon`s last POV in ADWD.

[Tenshi]

The thing would go like this:

Day 1: Theon`s escape

Day 3,4: Theon comes into Stannis encampent

Day 5,6: Interrogation, and for the sake of argument, Stannis sends a letter

Day 15: Jon gets the letter and later is stabbed.

So, we have 10 days for raven to bring Stannis` letter to the Wall. It`s almost impossible(given the distance between Wall and Winterfell). Since we don`t know exacty how much time Theon spent as Stannis` captor, we can`t for certainty say that Theon`s POV from WOW happened before Jon`s last POV in ADWD.

Read my post again, you missed both major issues:

1) As far as I see in the time-line, the 15 days is a guess based on when the raven was sent (day 7/8) and how long it'd fly (~8 days) in the first place. If you then go comparing it and believe the raven flew 15 days, you're making a rather serious error.

2) Winterfell would assume fArya/Theon are with Stannis. Only after the battle could they know that fArya went towards the wall. Stannis would know before the battle, so the time table argument is worse with a Winterfell origin hypothesis. To use days: Stannis could at earliest have sent it at day 4. Winterfell, at earliest, at day 8.

[Mladen]

Read my post again, you missed both major issues:

1) As far as I see in the time-line, the 15 days is a guess based on when the raven was sent (day 7/8) and how long it'd fly (~8 days) in the first place. If you then go comparing it and believe the raven flew 15 days, you're making a rather serious error.

2) Winterfell would assume fArya/Theon are with Stannis. Only after the battle could they know that fArya went towards the wall. Stannis would know before the battle, so the time table argument is worse with a Winterfell origin hypothesis. To use days: Stannis could at earliest have sent it at day 4. Winterfell, at earliest, at day 8.

The timeline is based on when Theon got away from the books, not on battle. There is a clear difference that Theon got away 15 days before Jon is stabbed. And raven would need much more than 8 days to get to CB from Winterfell

[Tenshi]

Apparently you use a different time-line than I found, then. No surprise there'd be some differences.

As I've given you the objections twice and I see no further answer forthcoming to reply to, I'll have to agree to disagree :).

[Syphon the Sanitator]

I don't believe this for even a second.

Even if this came from Stannis' side, it was not done by him and not under his instructions.

[three-eyed monkey]

Or perhaps your assumption that the "ravens" interest in sacrificing Stannis and Theon to the tree is linked to Jon's resurrection is false.

I said I'm favourable towards the idea, but I never said I assumed it would happen. I'm simply examining the timeline in the event of Mladen being right about that part as i can't prove he's not right about it, no more than he can prove he is at this stage.