Stannis wrote the Pink Letter. (Updated)

[Joyful Union]

He may not have "come up with it".Just as he didn't come up with the shadow baby idea.As we've seen, he's not oblivious to guidance.

But who amongst his advisors is that devious and clever?

[Red Rain]

Stannis' Honour always seems to hide itself when it comes to his throne as seen with renly as long as stannis can justify it to himself it will be done this man is not Eddard Starkand thank god for that so I do not put it past him I must say I prefer this explanation at the moment

[Rooseman]

ETA: Wait a second, the letter is written in ink? Didn't Stannis had to sign with Tycho in blood because the ink was frozen? This is probably easily resolved by having a little fire to melt the ink, but then why signing in blood in the first place?

Because Stannis said "Fuck it, this is quicker" and he also thought it would please the bankers.

[Ser Few of the Fingers]

Stannis' Honour always seems to hide itself when it comes to his throne as seen with renly as long as stannis can justify it to himself it will be done this man is not Eddard Starkand thank god for that so I do not put it past him I must say I prefer this explanation at the moment

Exactly! What makes this character so special, and the reason it has so many followers and haters, is that he is a very decided man, not his stark distinction between right and wrong. He is very sure of his own motives and actions, and it is very difficult to convince him of doing something other than what he thinks is right, but if properly convinced, he goes all-in and prepared to cope with the consequences, like with the Edric affair.

[three-eyed monkey]

In addition to what I said in an earlier post, regarding Stannis motivation:

Not only Stannis covers his ass with this move in case that he loses at WF before reinforcements from Jon, but he also achieves having Jon betray his oath to the Night's Watch, effectively putting Jon in need of a Kings pardon and/or legitimation as a Stark to avoid the NW execution, thus having a loyal Stark to rule the North.

ETA: Wait a second, the letter is written in ink? Didn't Stannis had to sign with Tycho in blood because the ink was frozen? This is probably easily resolved by having a little fire to melt the ink, but then why signing in blood in the first place?

Good points on motive, Octavio.

Regarding the bolded. The banker noticed Stannis' ink was frozen and suggested a little heat might do the trick but Sannis tells him he has a faster way and proceeds to cut his thumb and sign the IB contract in blood. But Stannis does have the facility to use ink if he's willing to wait for it to thaw over a candle.

[Stannis' shadow babies]

I like this theory, I don't think it's far fetched or incongruous to Stannis' actions since he's willing to use any means to reach his ends **points at username** . However, I'm more inclined to believe Mance was the author.

By the way, funny how never contemplated Stannis not knowing about Mance's glamour until I started visiting and reading the forum. I just assumed he was in knowledge, never considered plausible that Mel would hide something from her beloved AA reborn. I guess a re-read is in order ;)

[three-eyed monkey]

I like this theory, I don't think it's far fetched or incongruous to Stannis' actions since he's willing to use any means to reach his ends **points at username** . However, I'm more inclined to believe Mance was the author.

By the way, funny how never contemplated Stannis not knowing about Mance's glamour until I started visiting and reading the forum. I just assumed he was in knowledge, never considered plausible that Mel would hide something from her beloved AA reborn. I guess a re-read is in order ;)

Your first instinct may be right, SSB. I too assumed he was in on the switch the first time I read it, for the very same reason you give. I can see it both ways since coming to the forum, but I still think Stannis is too smart a soldier to burn such a valuable resource. Art of War, 101. Know your enemy, and Stannis admits to Jon that Mance knows much of their common enemy.

[Rooseman]

Good points on motive, Octavio.

They are good points. But I'm really having difficulties imagining that Stannis would trick somebody into breaking his vow, so that he could hold that fact against him. Sending a fake letter to his enemies, sure, but this would be very hypocritical. And say about Stannis what you want, but he always stands by what he thinks is right, even if what that is changes over time. And if he thinks that Jon should forsake his vows and become the lord of Winterfell instead, I don't believe that he'd plan on using this as leverage at the same time.

[three-eyed monkey]

They are good points. But I'm really having difficulties imagining that Stannis would trick somebody into breaking his vow, so that he could hold that fact against him. Sending a fake letter to his enemies, sure, but this would be very hypocritical. And say about Stannis what you want, but he always stands by what he thinks is right, even if what that is changes over time. And if he thinks that Jon should forsake his vows and become the lord of Winterfell instead, I don't believe that he'd plan on using this as leverage at the same time.

Yeah, you're right there, Rooseman. I think Stannis would trick Jon into coming to WF if he thought it might the northern lords over to his side, but not blackmail Jon afterwards. A true king pays his debts, he said of Jon's letter about the Karstarks.

[Albertine]

And say about Stannis what you want, but he always stands by what he thinks is right, even if what that is changes over time.

You mean changes when UNDER PRESSURE. Which is very different and not so admirable.

[DaveRoid]

He tried to tell her all of it, about Reek and the Dreadfort and Kyra and the keys, how Lord Ramsay never took anything but skin unless you begged for it. He told her how he'd saved the girl, leaping from the castle wall into the snow. "We flew. Let Abel make a song of that, we flew." Then he had to say who Abel was, and talk about the washerwomen who weren't truly washerwomen. By then Theon knew how strange and incoherent all this sounded, yet somehow the words would not stop. He was cold and sick and tired... and weak, so weak, so very weak.

So there's that from Theon's TWoW chapter.

Very good. I am very sure there was another similar hint in the dance as well. Will check this evening or mayhaps tomorrow.

Theon knows who abel is and told Asha about him.

... If Abel's scheme went awry, Ramsay would make their dying long and hard. He will flay me from head to heel this time, and no amount of begging will end the anguish. No pain Theon had ever known came close to the agony that Skinner could evoke with a little flensing blade. Abel would learn that lesson soon enough. And for what? Jeyne, her name is Jeyne, and her eyes are the wrong color. A mummer playing a part. Lord Bolton knows, and Ramsay too, but the rest are blind, even this bloody bard with his sly smiles. The jape is on you, Abel, and your murdering whores. You'll die for the wrong girl.

He had come this close to telling them the truth when Rowan had delivered him to Abel in the ruins of the Burned Tower, but at the last instant he had held his tongue. The singer seemed intent in making off with the daughter of Eddard Stark.If he knew that Lord Ramsay's bride was but a steward's whelp, well...

it was something else, between a confrontation of theon with Abel. Will look for it later.

[redriver]

But who amongst his advisors is that devious and clever?

Mance,I would say.After Stannis takes Winterfell.

[Inquisitor Glokta]

Just to be clear are we talking about an African raven or a European one? Sorry couldn't resist.

Well, i mean... there are a lot of possibilities. I just can say which raven GRRM had in mind.

It could be Corvus macrorhynchos from Asia, or Corvus brachyrhynchos from north America.

Corvus brachyrhynchos, which lives in Europe is also a possibility and even Corvus ruficollis can't be ruled out completely.

And I'm just naming a few...

Now, i couldn't resist. ;)

[mrlukeduke]

This is a fantastic OP, nicely written three-eyed monkey.

It solves almost all of the problems with the logistics of the letter and provides logical explanations for the motives of its author. It totally fits with Stannis' mode of operation (after all, he's used Shadow Babies, even to murder his own kin!). Stannis is ruthless and will do anything required to gain the throne.

This thread may have swayed me from thinking it's Ramsay, since I actually forgot Stannis most likely has the letter from Lady Glover already; this is a huge catch. So he has the letter, wax, he has all the info he needs about Ramsay from Theon (who knows Ramsay better than his Reek, anyway, save perhaps Roose?) – probably extracted via torture if not voluntarily (Theon is in total agony in that chapter); Stannis has the ingenuity, he has the ravens, he has the intel (I reckon Mel and Stannis were in on the entire thing with Mance, period; in fact, I find it hard to believe that Stannis would not be in on all the events at the Wall, save for Jon's assassination), and he obviously has the iron balls to pull it off.

It fits the text regarding his ruse to fake his own death. Note to the OP: my own thoughts on this are to do with the Azor Ahai prophecy; think about it, AA is "born again" and Stannis is trying to pull off the fraud that he's AA after all, so it fits that as well – so he and Mel might even have planned this in some way, or else it simply gives him yet more motive and he's just improvising.

He definitely has the logistics, with Mel entrapping Mance already with the ruby. He had literally hours of conversation with Mance (hmmm!) and importantly agreed with Jon that Mance was crucial. He may even have info from those working just outside of Winterfell (i.e. the snow traps that killed Freys – maybe even Manderly is in on some of it?), and he totally gets the psychology of those at the Wall (Wildlings, Queen's Men, Crows). Stannis is a master tactician, almost without equal.

Yet he absolutely needs Jon for Winterfell and to unite the fragmented northmen (at least until Rickon arrives) – in fact he needs a fresh army period, and since he's been at the Wall and knows it intimately and is desperate, well then who else better to unite those at the Wall to a single angry army/mob in uprising against the Boltons and Karstarks (etc) than Stannis, via Jon / the Night's Watch?

Who else but Stannisheimer Von Mannis!

Brilliant OP, once again.

[Jabronius Maximus]

Great OP! I just have one hangup about the whole thing though...

I haven't gone through the entire thread, but I think that quote about honour that Stannis says to Jon just doesn't justify the level of guile necessary to pull off this stunt. It is just way out of Stannis' character - he has shown to be flexible, but this is Baelish-level genius that I'm sure Stannis doesn't have - unless Mel is involved. She could be using a glamour (specifically, the pink wax) to make the letter appear authentic, or who knows, the glamour might change the contents to enhance the authenticity. But Stannis doing it alone - no way. Without Mel's act of guile in ACOK, he surely would've lost to Renly's army. So maybe there's the precedent.

Logistically this theory mostly works, but I can't bring myself to believe Stan is capable of this on his own. With help from Mel, it's more than possible, but unlikely because he's been gone from the Wall for a while. We also don't really have any indication of the sort in Mel's chapter, unless you consider her repeated warnings to Jon about him being surrounded by knives. Even then that's a stretch.

There's a thread in the TWOW forum (with spoilers from the latest Theon I chapter) that lists Asha as a candidate for authorship, and the case is stronger than that made for Stannis. There was also an essay by Bran Vras (can't find it now) that pretty much convinced me it was Mance who wrote the letter (not alone, but maybe conspiring with Roose or getting info from Theon).

[aFeastForDragons]

Brilliant! This theory makes so much sense.

[mrlukeduke]

Great OP! I just have one hangup about the whole thing though...

I haven't gone through the entire thread, but I think that quote about honour that Stannis says to Jon just doesn't justify the level of guile necessary to pull off this stunt.

But dude, as I just said before you posted (you may not have seen mine therefore), Stannis used frickin' SHADOW BABIES man! It is totally within his character IMO. In fact, I personally think many people have a very distorted view of Stannis' psychology and capability on the battlefield. He is ruthless in war and will do whatever it takes: murder, torture, sorcery, politics, deception, kinslaying, brute force, enlisting pirates (Davos) and sellswords from Essos... etc etc etc; he's basically completely single-minded in his determination for victory.

But, maybe you're right. I'm just sayin'. Having said this though, my remaining issue personally for Stannis as the author of the Pink Letter is really now only the "seven days of battle" problem.

Is it conceivable, I wonder, that Stannis wrote this part in to give a sense of extreme urgency for Jon/NW? Because after all, Jon would have no idea about time scales surely; so in a sense, that actually finally explains the inconsistency in the dates/timing? :0

Perhaps not, but there must be something to the time scale supplied. Also Stannis might want to test the loyalty of his forces and allies at the Wall (he does this time and time again throughout the books).

I'm just throwing it out there but if Stannis wanted Jon to act fast and distract Ramsay (so he couldn't join up with Frey/Manderly), well, it'd be a hell of a strong reason to add in something about the length of time in battle, to convince Jon that perhaps he has engaged (and lost to) Ramsay's/Roose's forces much earlier than we as the reader, actually know he did.

And, Stannis might be concerned about the ravens reaching Winterfell on time, given that he's sending them out not from an unknown location in the middle of a snowstorm). Ravens might get a bit confused. So he adds on a few days.

[Jabronius Maximus]

But dude, as I just said before you posted, Stannis used frickin' SHADOW BABIES man! It is totally within his character. I personally think people have a distorted view of Stannis' psychology. He is ruthless and will do whatever it takes: murder, torture, sorcery, politics, deception, brute force; he's completely single-minded in his determinaiton.

But this is the very reason I don't believe he did it on his own. Mel must have had a leading hand in this, whether by glamouring the letter or changing its contents outright. Now that I think of it,

Theon and Asha are right there with Stan in the TWOW chapter. So maybe they spearheaded the effort with Stannis as the supervisor, and it began just after the excerpt ended. They have the first Bolton letter, the seal, and the necessary intel to compose it. The situation was getting dire, with the Karstark betrayal fresh in Stan's camp, the army getting snowed in and whatnot. With desperation seeping in (although Stan the Man would never show it), it wouldn't surprise me at all for him to agree to it, but come up with and execute the whole damn plan himself? No way.

Edit: God damn, I wish my 1000th post was something more insightful or funny. Oh well lol, here's a joke :dunno:

Why did Joffrey cross the road? Because his dick was stuck in the chicken

[mrlukeduke]

But that's where we're agreeing; he plotted much of this from the beginning. I'm convinced he knew about Melisandre's use of Mance. I mean Stannis had hours-long private conversations with Mance Rayder, so he must have been up to something. I think he basically has an agent in/around Winterfell, or at least someone ready to pull strings when needed (e.g. when Stannis encroaches on Winterfell's gates).

Maybe Mance is giving signals to Wyman or the Norreys or wheoever's outside the wall making traps in the snow (hence why they targeted Freys and not Manderlys).

[mrlukeduke]

Basically there's no way that Stannis wasn't in on what happened with Rattleshirt. It's ridiculous to think Melisandre is basically going behind His Grace's back 24/7 in her own R'hllor plots.

No, Stannis planned to get back Winterfell from the Wall. The letter may or may not have been part of it, or possibly an improvisation. But either way he had the info, and he got more and more info from Theon/Reek, Karstark traitors, possibly informants/spies in Winterfell itself, etc.