Stannis wrote the Pink Letter. (Updated)

[three-eyed monkey]

@ mrlukeduke. Thanks for the input. I didn't twig the AAR connection. Very interesting indeed...

@ Barristan the Boss. The question of Stannis' character is a good one, and no doubt one we could debate until Winds comes out. IMHO it's not all as black and white with him as many readers imagine. He is single-minded in his quest for the IT and in his belief that it is righfully his, without question, but given the choice between freezing to death outside the walls of Winterfell or seeing justice done (ie. his ass on the Iron Throne) even if it is by way of subterfuge, can we be certain that Stannis, the guy who had his brother killed because he was in the way, would choose to freeze?

The biggest problem I see, as pointed out earlier in the thread, is the distance between WF and CB. It might take two days for the raven to get to CB. If Jon left straight away it would take him six or seven days hard ride to get to WF in good conditions. In a blizzard it might take him twenty. Even if Stannis defeats the Freys, whch I'm certain he will, his army is not in good condition to lay seige for long. That said, he's been there before at Storm's End so who knows what he's planning? I must admit, I'm also a big fan of the theory about Stannis using Karstark ravens to inform Winterfell he has been defeated and then getting through the gates disguised as returning Freys. But whatever he's planning, I just know it's going to be awesome.

[bemused]

I've laid out the case for Stannis so often on this and other threads, I can't always remember where I said what.

But I think the best explanation for the 7 days of battle has to do with how long ago the battle would have taken place and how long Ramsay has been on his way. To me, it's a warning to Jon about what is coming... and I think Jon at least suspects this , since he thinks of going to Mel to see if she can locate Ramsay. He's obviously thinking there's a good chance Ramsay is not at WF.

This would probably mean ... that Stannis believes Theon that Ramsay will be coming, knows at least the range of time to allow for the battle , and can figure roughly how long it would take a raven to reach CB . It would mean the letter was sent before the battle ,but after the trip to the tree. Whatever happens at the battle, Ramsay will be on his way, trying to recover "Arya" ( and possibly Theon). I think Stannis has everything he needs to author and send the letter without any help from inside WF.

But though I bet on him to win the battle ,I don't think he will take WF.. I'm betting the GNC will take WF from inside first..after which they'd probably ally with Stannis , alright , but he wouldn't have the right to bestow WF on anyone, or to command who is to do what as far as the North is concerned.

[three-eyed monkey]

Nice to have you back again, bemused. I agree, Stannis will win the battle but the GNC will win Winterfell. I'm not so sure they'll want to ally with him though, not with his weirwood burning bitch in tow. I think the GNC want the North to be independent under the new KitN, be that Rickon or Jon, and as Stannis would not treat with Robb I can't see him suffering what he will see as another pretender. Love Stannis, but I'm not too confident that he'll survive the next book. Hope I'm wrong about that.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Stannis is an intelligent man, and a solid military tactician. So is Roose Bolton, and Stannis knows it. Looking at the situation from Stannis's viewpoint, why would he ever hunker down in the village and wait for Roose to attack him? Stannis should be expecting Roose to sit inside Winterfell and wait for Stannis to attack. Stannis is losing men to attrition at a much greater rate than he can expect Roose to. Stannis has no spies inside Winterfell. He should have no clue about the dissension among Roose's men. The arrival of Theon, with inside information, is purely fortuitous- Stannis couldn't expect it. Stannis is losing, and is losing worse the longer he waits. Why is Stannis still waiting?

Whenever Stannis starts acting illogically, it's usually because he has been influenced by a vision. I think he saw in the flames that he would be attacked at the village, and be victorious. He's got Targ blood. He's had two visions in the past. His limited ability should be getting a bit stronger as magic returns. This could also affect his knowledge of events pertaining to the Pink Letter- i.e., his knowledge that Abel is Mance.

[bemused]

He had to stop somewhere and the little village offered at least some shelter. Then he was trapped there by weather. He knows a siege of WF would be fruitless ,since his army is already starving. He has to wait until they come to him. His original plan went out the window as soon as the weather turned against him and he couldn't reach Roose before he got WF locked down.

But as soon as Tycho's party arrives and the letter from Jon, etc. The Karstarks are exposed and he immediately formulates a new plan.. Yes, Theon and Jeyne's arrival are fortuitous , but he still could have formulated much the same battle plan without them.. Jon's warning about the Karstarks was the catalyst.

[King of the Bastards]

he could'nt even say, he loved his brother in the first letter, that the maester writes for him in ACOK, because it wasn't true. how would he have managed to write a whole letter full of lies?

[three-eyed monkey]

Outside Storm's End Stannis gave Renly until dawn to pledge his allegiance, and then had him killed that night. So he does lie. Stannis told Davos that he would sacrifice one child [Edric Storm] to the flames to save millions from the dark. If he would go that far then I'm sure he would lie to save millions from the dark. Stannis told Jon that what Ned called honour was stubborn folly and Lord Eddard learned that the hard way. Like all GRRM's best characters, Stannis is not simply black and white.

[mrlukeduke]

I just realised something, minor perhaps, but potentially something new to add to the "whoddunit" discussions. Since at the moment I'm slightly more interested in the "Stannis dunnit" solutions, I'll post here.

Some if not a great many of the Wildlings are accomplished climbers, no? I'm talking large mountains and... certain walls. With spiked shoes, grappling hooks and the likes. Winterfell has large walls. (Bran even knows them inside-out! Hmm).

Then who better to take Winterfell (for Stannis?) in winter, amidst heavy snows, than those who have already climbed a great Wall of Ice? And a wall supposedly designed specifically to keep Wildlings out of the North, no less!

Ah, the noble Stark family, guardians of the North, having their ancestral home taken from them by northern treachery only to be restored to them by the very people who they, the Starks – and most all other northern families presumably – were fighting against for hundreds of years! Poetic justice?!

[Tinfoil]

Side note/intrigue: "Mance Rayder" can be construed literally as a "raider" of "manses".

[/Tinfoil]

[Lord Joker Of FunLand]

So, the fact that Stannis thinks Mance is dead, and Theon hasn`t told him yet about it(even about in AWOW chapter) isn`t enough? The fact OP doesn`t know origin of pink wax, and doesn`t know whether it`s from Asha`s letter, Tybald, or Theon is ridiculuous. It`s like shooting blind and trying to hit the target. The fact that we still don`t know how much before Jon`s stabbing happened Theon`s chapter from AWOW.

Why do you assume Stannis thinks Mance is dead? Didn't Stannis say he spoke to Mance for days (or was it hours?), yet you're telling us that he wouldn't know that it wasn't Mance when he was talking before being "burned"? And that Melissandre didn't tell Stannis before or after?

I highly doubt Melissandre would commit high treason by lying to Stannis and keeping Mance alive.

As for the theory, a good one, i'm not sold on it but it makes some good points.

[Thrice Drowned Veteran]

I lean towards the camp of Stannis wrote the letter. The evidence is too overwhelming.

Problems with Ramsay actually being the author are numerous:

1) Didn't Theon kill all of Winterfell's ravens?

2) Why would Ramsay write it and not Roose? Roose is the "Warden of the North," and nobody speaks for Roose, not even Ramsay.

3) Ramsay always sends letters with slivers of skin.

4) No stamp.

5) There's too much information in the letter for Ramsay to know ... or care about.

6) The wording is almost too Ramsay like. Ramsay is crazy, but the letter is over the top.

[Ser Few of the Fingers]

IIRC Theon did not kill the ravens at WF. They did that on the TV show, but in the books he doesn't do that (otherwise, how would Cat and Robb come to think that Bran and Rickon are dead?). Also, Ramsay fancies himself Lord of WF, so that would be a reason for him to write it instead of Roose.

[mrlukeduke]

Why do you assume Stannis thinks Mance is dead? Didn't Stannis say he spoke to Mance for days (or was it hours?), yet you're telling us that he wouldn't know that it wasn't Mance when he was talking before being "burned"? And that Melissandre didn't tell Stannis before or after?

It matters not if Stannis is the author. He's not sending it to give Jon factual details of events at Winterfell, he's sending it to get Jon to march.

I highly doubt Melissandre would commit high treason by lying to Stannis and keeping Mance alive.

Correct. Stannis likely knew what Melisandre was up to with the burning of Rattleshirt. He knew it wasn't Mance. He wants Mance, he knows Jon wants Mance. As an analogy, he also wants his "magic" sword, no? But in the letter, he wrote that his sword was gone as well. It's all a ruse.

Thus if Stannis knew of all the events at the Wall that happened before he left (which surely he did, I can't see how he'd be kept in the dark by Mel) then the letter makes perfect sense. He knows Mance is in WF (but not if he's been captured or not), and that he's with the six spearwives. He knows Ramsay's scrawled hand via letters taken from Deepwood. He has Theon ("Reek") who knows Ramsay's mind intimately. He has the ravens and pink wax. Stannis needs Jon to break his vows and take Winterfell so he can unite the North. And he needs the Queen's Men and Wildlings too, so he adds in insults aimed at them.

[three-eyed monkey]

Theon notes that master Luwin's ravens are gathered on the Weirwood tree in WF. The Boltons probably brought their own ravens with them. I'm doubtful that Mance could access either once his cover is blown despite being a wily old fox. He may have evaded capture and be hiding somewhere in WF, but accessing a raven that he knows is trained for CB? Not impossible but a stretch in my opinion.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Back to the OP:

2. Stannis has ravens trained for Castle Black. He has already sent Jon a letter since leaving the wall, and it only makes sense that he maintains a means of communication with Mel and the garrison he left behind.

Are we sure about this? Stannis sent the message to Castle Black while he was at Deepwood Motte, probably using DM's maester and raven. He didn't leave many men behind at the Wall he would need to communicate with, just bodyguards for Mel and Selyse, some injured troops he lent to Jon, and whoever is at the Nightfort. Pylos handled the ravens at Dragonstone, and he stayed behind.

We don't see a maester or any ravens anywhere around Stannis after he leaves Deepwood until Karstark and the Dreadfort maester show up, and the three ravens he brought were trained for Winterfell.

Granted, our info comes through Asha's POV, so perhaps she didn't see something. Stannis wouldn't really need a true maester just to handle some ravens, and he could have taken a couple birds from Deepwood, but we don't see them.

GRRM wants to keep us guessing about this until the next book comes out, and he's in a perfect position to withhold just enough info to keep us from solving the mystery.

[three-eyed monkey]

^ True, Stannis' ravens are not mentioned. There is an assumption here, I admit, but I think it's a reasonable one. Stannis is a seasoned soldier and would know the importance of maintaining lines of communication, like the Old Bear did when he led the NW north of the wall, despite not bringing a maester. Also, this comes from Jon's pov when he receives the first letter from Ramsay, which happened before Stannis took Deepwood Motte:

"Lord Snow?" a soft voice said.

He turned to find Clydas standing beneath the broken archway, a parchment in his hand. "From Stannis?" Jon had been hoping for some word from the king. ...

If Stannis had no ravens then it's odd that he is the first sender that comes to mind for Jon when Clydas brings him the letter.

[Queen Of Ashes]

Congratulations, I am very convinced :)

[Mladen]

Why do you assume Stannis thinks Mance is dead? Didn't Stannis say he spoke to Mance for days (or was it hours?), yet you're telling us that he wouldn't know that it wasn't Mance when he was talking before being "burned"? And that Melissandre didn't tell Stannis before or after?

I highly doubt Melissandre would commit high treason by lying to Stannis and keeping Mance alive.

Because he trusts Melisandre and he 'saw' Mance burning. He talked to Mance for hours, and that's not enough to differentiate people. It's not like he knew him that good. Also, Melisandre serves her God and her own interests. She is much more free of Stannis' will than he is of hers. All in all, Stannis thinks Mance is dead, and I am not convinced that he had learnt otherwise. It`s not like Mance has any special looks that makes such strong impression...

[three-eyed monkey]

Because he trusts Melisandre and he 'saw' Mance burning. He talked to Mance for hours, and that's not enough to differentiate people. It's not like he knew him that good. Also, Melisandre serves her God and her own interests. She is much more free of Stannis' will than he is of hers. All in all, Stannis thinks Mance is dead, and I am not convinced that he had learnt otherwise. It`s not like Mance has any special looks that makes such strong impression...

I respect your opinion on that, Mladen. It is widely held that Stannis knew nothing of the Rattleshirt switch, but it is not canon. It has been heavily inferred, (about as heavily inferred as Jon being Ned's bastard) but never confirmed. The truth is we don't know for certain who planned the switch.

Mance tells Jon he was unsure about the glamour at first but decided to leave Mel try because it was that or let Stannis roast him. The inference here is that Mel planned the switch without Stannis' knowledge, but the fact is that could have been the option Stannis gave him - let Mel put a glamour on you and switch you with Rattleshirt or else it's you that burns.

And who has more to gain by saving Mance, Mel or Stannis? Mel might have some plan for him beyond saving 'Arya' that is yet to be revealed. But Stannis admitted to Jon that Mance knows much about the true enemy. That's a pretty valuable resource for any soldier to hold, especially a considered commander like Stannis. I don't believe he's stupid enough to burn such a resource.

And then there's the point Bemused made about the possibility that Mance told Stannis, during their hours of talk, about the time he infiltrated Winterfell disguised as a singer. I certainly wouldn't find that to be out of character with Mance if it turned out to be true. That story would go a long way towards helping Stannis to puzzle out Abel's true identity, even if he didn't know about the switch.

So, what Stannis knew of Mance is not a closed book by an means in my opinion.

[bemused]

If I can jump in, here, Stannis strongly implies to Jon that the reason he feels he has to kill Mance is that the NW will demand it. Mance is a deserter. Why doesn't Stannis simply hand him over to Jon then ? He knows Jon would have to execute Mance. He says laws should have some teeth ( words to that effect ). It's the NW he was trying to impress / mollify by adhering to law.If anything , law is an affront to the wildlings.

I can see no reason Mance would not mention his Abel persona. It seems to have been well known among the wildlings. Why hide it ? If Stannis spoke to him for hours , surely part of what he wanted to know was who was Mance and how did he get to where he was.. Mance tells Mel only a fool would trust Rattleshirt..he wouldn't, himself. ...Don't you think he would have said the same to Stannis, if Stannis was asking ( as he asked Jon , and probably others ) if any of the wildlings had honour , or could be trusted ?..There are plenty of other hints but just skip to this....

Stannis knows Lightbringer is a fake. Early on,he tells Davos it's pretty, but proved no more useful on the field than any other sword. (ACoK, I think ) He doesn't hesitate to lay it down on top of a map while talking to Jon... No heat...The sword has a ruby in the pommel. It quite probable that Mel controls it by that means ( as with Mance's ruby). Even though Jon doesn't catch on during the exchange when Stannis gives Rattleshirt over to him, surely Stannis would..

M/R : "Do you like my ruby , Snow ? A token o' love from lady red." ... and Mel..." The ruby at her throat throbbed slowly, and Jon saw that the smaller stone on Rattleshirt's wrist was brightening and darkening as well. " So long as he wears the gem he is bound to me, blood and soul, " the red priestess said ".... .. M/R :..." I'll range for you , bastard," Rattleshirt declared ," I'll give you sage counsel or sing you pretty songs , as you prefer. I'll even fight for you . Just don't ask me to wear your cloak. "

Jon can be fooled , never having seen a glamour , and having seen "Mance" burned. We can be fooled at first reading - a lot of story has gone by since we read Jon's meeting with Mance ... Mance's playing music, and singer's disguise ... the famous story of his cloak... But Stannis had been interviewing Mance very recently, and I can't believe Stannis wouldn't have wanted to know Mance's history and what makes him tick.

I think Stannis and Mel planned the switch together , but even if they didn't ... I can't believe Stannis wouldn't pick up on those very broad hints.

[mrlukeduke]

Exactly, I find it very hard to believe that Stannis didn't have full or at least substantial knowledge of events at the Wall before he left, given that he knows all about Melisandre's other "tricks", not to mention His Grace having a curiously long conversation with Mance, mano a mano. Stannis doesn't beat around the bush with idle banter.

I suppose that Stannis gave Mance the choice: do as my red witch wants, or burn. That way he spares Jon a tough decision, keeps Mance for important strategic reasons (he might need to bind the Wildlings to his or Jon's will later), gets rid of the treacherous Rattleshirt, and all the while still appeases his wily sorceress in a cunning new plot to overthrow the Boltons at Winterfell.

The Wildlings are famously adept wall climbers after all. A useful people to have around, especially when you have a dwindling southron army. Winterfell's walls shouldn't prove too much of a task for six or six hundred armed with snow shoes, ropes and grappling hooks. Meanwhile, Mance runs amock causing havoc and confusion inside.