The Great Northern Conspiracy REALISTICALLY/and GRRM comments?

[Ser Davos' finger bones]

I like the GNC mainly because if true it would propel the plot forward quickly, with a number of important reveals and plans having taken place off the page. The narrative could use a GNC (IMHO). Feast and Dance seemed to have been mostly setup, which is fine. I'm sure George had the ending in mind when he wrote the beginning. However, to make the ending convincing to readers every character has to get into the right position, have a good reason for being there and a good reason to do what they need to do to make the ending happen. What worries me and makes me believe that the GNC might not be a thing or that it might not be nearly as vast as speculated is that GRRM himself said of the length of the upcoming Winds of Winter: "Three years from [2011] when I'm sitting on 1,800 pages of manuscript with no end in sight, who the hell knows". Meaning he thinks he has a lot of explaining to do still.

Another thing that I like about the GNC is that I think it is plausible that the north plans to install Jon as King in the North. Why? Everybody and their dog knows where Jon is. All five books while the rest of the Starks are scattered like leaves in the wind, there is Jon at the wall (or thereabouts). So if there is a plan regarding Jon I buy that no one would tell him until the last possible second. It's a safe bet he's not going anywhere (or it was a safe bet until the Bowen Marsh incident).

Yet another thing I like about the GNC is that GRRM didn't overtly describe it, meaning, IMHO, it's more likely to come true than some plan that a character hatches in the open. We've seen many times that character X has big important plans to do Y and then doesn't even come close: Yoren returning Arya to Winterfell, Daenerys giving birth to the Stallion Who Mounts the World, Jaime and his promise to Cat.

Personally I would love it if the GNC were true. I would love it if just 50% of the GNC were true. Reading this kind of well-thought-out speculation is sometimes more fun than reading the books. Hope is still alive!

[Macho Hand of the King]

I like the GNC mainly because if true it would propel the plot forward quickly, with a number of important reveals and plans having taken place off the page. The narrative could use a GNC (IMHO). Feast and Dance seemed to have been mostly setup, which is fine. I'm sure George had the ending in mind when he wrote the beginning. However, to make the ending convincing to readers every character has to get into the right position, have a good reason for being there and a good reason to do what they need to do to make the ending happen. What worries me and makes me believe that the GNC might not be a thing or that it might not be nearly as vast as speculated is that GRRM himself said of the length of the upcoming Winds of Winter: "Three years from [2011] when I'm sitting on 1,800 pages of manuscript with no end in sight, who the hell knows". Meaning he thinks he has a lot of explaining to do still.

Another thing that I like about the GNC is that I think it is plausible that the north plans to install Jon as King in the North. Why? Everybody and their dog knows where Jon is. All five books while the rest of the Starks are scattered like leaves in the wind, there is Jon at the wall (or thereabouts). So if there is a plan regarding Jon I buy that no one would tell him until the last possible second. It's a safe bet he's not going anywhere (or it was a safe bet until the Bowen Marsh incident).

Yet another thing I like about the GNC is that GRRM didn't overtly describe it, meaning, IMHO, it's more likely to come true than some plan that a character hatches in the open. We've seen many times that character X has big important plans to do Y and then doesn't even come close: Yoren returning Arya to Winterfell, Daenerys giving birth to the Stallion Who Mounts the World, Jaime and his promise to Cat.

Personally I would love it if the GNC were true. I would love it if just 50% of the GNC were true. Reading this kind of well-thought-out speculation is sometimes more fun than reading the books. Hope is still alive!

I just wanted to say how much I liked this post. I agree 100% and just wanted to give this a "thumbs up".

[Black Wolf Smith]

I don't think there is 1 big one, I think there are 3 or 4 smaller ones, that have some of the same ideas, but each also trying to put the leaders in better positions of power. I think that the Manderlys have their plan, the Umbers have theirs, Mormants have theirs, and quite possibly lady Dustin has her own plan.

[Urien the Ragged]

Rickon is just a way to play Davos and get him out of the view for some time. He can't just let Davos go back to Stannis. If it becomes known that Davos is alive, then Manderly is openly revealed as a traitor and he can't afford that just now. So he sends Davos to "retrieve the Stark boy from Skagos". It is never said in the Manderly/Davos conversation that it is Rickon and Davos (who probably has no idea, that Bran is a cripple) might be thinking he is going for Bran which would corespond with Manderly wanting his "liege lord" returned. So while Davos is out of the picture in wilderness with a meaningless task (in the grand scheme of things, of course getting the boy to safety is not meaningless), Manderly can play his game further.

Of course I am not saying that it really is that way and there might even be different factions in GNC in terms of who wants who to sit in Winterfell, but it seems to me from the text, that Rickon is a decoy.

I really don't think that Rickon is a decoy, he's obviously going to be a big part of Manderly's plan. Does sending Davos for him keep him out of the way? Sure, but he could just sit on him, so to speak, until the time is prudent. Bringing a Stark and his direwolf back to Westeros is going to be a huge symbolic victory that will inspire the North like nothing else. As once Robb Stark and Grey Wind walked the battlements at Winterfell, so will too Rickon and Shaggy. The Northmen will flock to their cause, the BWB will come running, Stannis will know it necessary to secure their allegiance, and a GNC will be largely unnecessary.

[drayrock]

Jon is the hero of northern democracy. lord commander, king beyond the wall, king of the north. chosen as such by other people each time. even if he is dead the martyr myth of the king who went to the wall to defend the realm is one hell of a story

Straight up I always compare him to faramir in LOR. Very much in touch with the people. A great essay comparing Boromir and faramir with Robb and Jon needs to be written

[Steve Moss II]

The lords in on the GNC need as many Stark heirs as possible. The Lannisters, Freys and Boltons have no honor and will stoop to the lowest depths to survive. One Stark heir means the North is one assassination attempt away from chaos again. An heir and a spare, on the other hand, gives some hope of continuity, even if there is a disaster.

[drayrock]

It makes no matter whose legal heir Jon may be, he took an oath when he joined the Night's Watch. I don't see him pursuing a crown or the Iron Throne while he still wears the black. Nor can I see any Northern noble house backing him if he turns out to be a turncloak. If GRRM wanted Jon to become a political power beyond the Night's Watch he would have skipped his assassination by the hands of Bowen Marsh and allowed him to march south to Winterfell at the head of an army.

By the time Jon recovers or is resurrected the political situation will have changed dramatically, I think. His heritage won't matter in the political field until the very end. His Targaryen blood may become important in the coming battle against the Others, but not as a political factor.

I completely agree. But the point is if they are ready to make him there king then they have faith in him. If they have faith in him maybe finally a portion of the God damn seven kingdoms will recognize the fact we ve known since the fucking prologue of got...the others have returned! I think if anything the GNC is a vehicle not for the king in the north and politics but a vehicle for major houses to finally listen to the nights watches pleas through their would be, respected king-Jon snow. Finally the real threat will be recognized and it will coincide with Danny's eventual landing in casterly rock

[drayrock]

I never thought Jon's patronage and to a lesser extent this supposed conspiracy is a means of putting Jon on the iron throne. I think these things will be used in a way to help Jon unite the North against the others with most likely the eventual help from Danny when things get very dire. Maybe as the North unites around Jon the Boltons espace Winterfell and Ramsay becomes Night's King--Jon's ultimate nemesis. Jon will most likely die in the end and Danny will sit the iron throne. I would love an ending like this and don't think it's a copout at all.

And my pipe dream wish of Arya becoming a member of the queens-guard will be my happy ending.

Didn't see this before I made my last post but TTTHISSSSSSS

[drayrock]

Also because, even if Manderly prefers a legitimised Jon to become the new King in the North (which is a very sensible opinion), Rickon is still extremely valuable: the Stark line is almost extinct at this point and if something were to happen to Jon (like, ahem, potentially dying in battle in the North's continued struggle for independence, perhaps?), then Rickon is about the only hope they have left for a Stark figure to unite the North, even if he's only a child. Sending Davos away to retrieve Rickon is the perfect way to deflect attention away from Jon, get Davos out of the picture for the time being while still making it possible to join forces with Stannis to overthrow the Boltons, while simultaneously getting another another Stark back.

Although it might feel like an overly elaborate plot, I must say that, the more I think about it, the more the Grand Northern Conspiracy is growing on me. It connects so many random dots, big and small, and explains so much about the exact intentions of the Northern bannerman that it almost seems impossible not to be true at this point.

I also feel like people are underestimating just how ruthless the North can be if necessary: everyone keeps harping on about the North's honour, while ignoring Kings in the North like Brandon Ice-Eyes (who hung slavers' entrails from a Weirwood tree), the fact that we've received hints that the North made human sacrifices to the Old Gods in the past (of course, it's totally wrong if Melisandre burns people to death for the Lord of Light, but cool if our loveable Northmen slit a guy's throat) or Wyman Manderly baking Freys into a pie and fucking eating them. The North is not necessarily honourable: it is a cold and harsh place and can be just as merciless as the South if they feel slighted. Right now, the North has a tremendous score to settle with the Lannisters and, the worse it gets, the more determined the Northmen themselves become (just like how the Brotherhood without Banners gradually devolved into a bunch of vigilantes).

If you keep that in mind, it seems likely that the Northern bannerman could give two shits about the Night's Watch (weakened, made up of criminals and ineffective) or Jon's personal sense of honour: they want vengeance, they want a Stark back in Winterfell and after everything they've suffered from southern politics lately, they want to free themselves forever from the whims of the Iron Throne. It's the dragons they bowed to and it would take another dragon to subjugate them again. And even if the Others should emerge soon, many will still consider Jon far more useful as a king, uniting the North, than Lord Commander of less than a thousand crows.

Does that mean that the North is truly willing to stab Stannis in the back after everything he's just done for them? No, I don't think so. I believe that, if they're rid of the Boltons and have a King in the North again, the North is more than willing to support Stannis in his bid for the Iron Throne: they'll have a King in the South that is beholden to the Northern cause and they'll get to kill more Lannisters and Freys together. But they will not kneel before Stannis or accept his Red God... And should they decide on this course, then Stannis will be powerless to do anything about it... And I really fear that, rather than taking the sensible option and accept Northern independence in exchange for their aid, Stannis will consider them traitours. I fear Stannis will break before he bends and a Northern secession may be what breaks him.

This. I've always quoted that line as foreshadowing to Stanis's demise

[drayrock]

I think the presence of Rickon will actually make Jon a bit more willing to accept the crown that the North intends to offer him: if Jon becomes King in the North, but declares Rickon his heir, he will honour both Robb's wishes and that of his bannermen without cheating Rickon of his inheritance. Rickon can continue the Stark line, but Jon will take command for the time being like everyone wants. Any children that Jon may have won't feel slighted with this arrangement, because I suspect Jon will marry Val to unite the North with the Wildlings and the Wildlings value strength over inheritance laws: if they want the crown, then Jon's half-Wildling children will have to earn it, even in the eyes of the Free Folk themselves. And, should Rickon for some reason prove himself to be an incapable ruler, then the North has Jon's children with Val to turn to. It's the ideal arrangement for everyone involved - except from Stannis' perspective, who believes he has the right to Seven Kingdoms, not six.

And yes, that is exactly my point: no matter what Stannis does, he simply lacks the forces to do anything but accept the North's terms, which he'll undoubtedly loathe. I fear that Stannis, in his desperation, will try something reckless, like trying to kill Jon, and essentially self-destructing. Fittingly, Melisandre will be his last hope: once she realises that Jon is Azor Ahai, Stannis' betrayal is complete.

EDIT: Also, I nearly forgot to mention that there are real world parallels with the Grand Northern Conspiracy too, which have further convinced me that this is what GRRM was inspired by and is indeed the route he is taking with Jon: there are quite a few similarities between the North and Scotland and (having watched a documentary on Scottish history recently) I realised that the Grand Northern Conspiracy definitely resembles a great plot by the bishops of Scotland to crown Robert the Bruce their new king (after the death of freedom-fighter William Wallace and the ineptitude of their previous ruler John Balliol). This plot required the bishops and other lords to move in enormous secrecy before they could declare their true intentions and continue their battle for an independent Scotland. Given that the Black Dinner (another episode from Scottish history) formed the direct inspiration for the Red Wedding, the Grand Northern Conspiracy suddenly seems even more plausible...

That bit o history makes this all the more intriguing. Good point

[HannibalStark]

That is a good thread. I tend to lean towards the "Jon's not done" perspective, though. (I freely admit GRRM could totally hammer us with Jon's death, I just think it will be later on). I also had a thought rewatching some season 3 episodes "What if all of Ned Stark's children wind up dead as a result of him protecting the identity of Jon?" That would qualify as "bittersweet" for an ending. Bran likely remains in the cave, but his existence becomes something else and he's really "dead" as a son of Stark at that point.

Who is going to kill Sansa and Arya? Why? If they cam even find them even anyway?

[mbuehner]

1.Jon is slightly younger than Aegon

2.Point one is irrelevant because Jon is a bastard and bastards have no inheritance rights unless theyre naturalized

3.All of this is completely irrelevant because The North rebelled against the Targaryens 20 years ago, and since rebelled against a Baratheon/Lannister and took up their own king. They have no deep seated yearning to bow to a Targaryen.

4.Just declaring that Howland Reed witnessed something is not going to convince anybody of anything. Granted- there are Targaryens popping up all over the world all the sudden, but they have SOME evidence to support their claims beyond one cranogman.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

1.Jon is slightly younger than Aegon

2.Point one is irrelevant because Jon is a bastard and bastards have no inheritance rights unless theyre naturalized

3.All of this is completely irrelevant because The North rebelled against the Targaryens 20 years ago, and since rebelled against a Baratheon/Lannister and took up their own king. They have no deep seated yearning to bow to a Targaryen.

4.Just declaring that Howland Reed witnessed something is not going to convince anybody of anything. Granted- there are Targaryens popping up all over the world all the sudden, but they have SOME evidence to support their claims beyond one cranogman.

1. So?

2. Robb's will legitimised Jon

3. He is just as much a Stark as he is a Targaryen, and the North cannot afford to be too picky.

4. Howland Reed will be just one of the many factors, including Robb's will, potentially Azor Ahai, the Others coming without a Northern king to fight them, Rickon and his trust in Jon, etc.

[Bayard]

the biggest thing to me that screams that there is no GNC is the fact that Rickon appears to be a significant part of Manderly's plan. If the Northern houses still secretly loyal to the Starks were aware of Robb's will, why would Rickon be so important? Nope, the only reason Manderly wants Rickon is because he wants influence, and Rickon trumps both Sansa and "Arya". Manderly actually has the drop on even Littlefinger, who believes Bran and Rickon to be dead, in this regard.

If this bothers you so much, simply take out Manderly from the conspiracy. Even from Apple's first post, he was just optional. He might know, or he might not. And if he does, he might have been told very recently. Remember that for a long time, he was believed to be working with the Lannisters and Freys, at least from an outside view. The GNC is based on Maege Mormont, Howland Reed and Galbart Glover. They have the will, they were safe in the Neck, and especially have been missing for a long time. All the others, are possible, some might be connected, some might not be. The list is very long: Manderly, Umbers, lady Stoneheart, Jason Mallister, other river lords, Lady Dustin... there are hints for all of them. I do think they are all actively working to destroy the Bolton - Frey alliance, some like Manderly are trying to bring back the Starks. The only question is how well they are connected. But the most important are the 3 I mentioned above, they are at the center of the conspiracy, and we have no idea what they've been doing the last year.

[mbuehner]

1. So?

2. Robb's will legitimised Jon

3. He is just as much a Stark as he is a Targaryen, and the North cannot afford to be too picky.

4. Howland Reed will be just one of the many factors, including Robb's will, potentially Azor Ahai, the Others coming without a Northern king to fight them, Rickon and his trust in Jon, etc.

None of that indicates how Targaryen blood affects Jons claim one way or another.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

None of that indicates how Targaryen blood affects Jons claim one way or another.

He is Rhaegar's heir, especially if Aegon is a fake.

[vivatforx]

1. So?

2. Robb's will legitimised Jon

3. He is just as much a Stark as he is a Targaryen, and the North cannot afford to be too picky.

4. Howland Reed will be just one of the many factors, including Robb's will, potentially Azor Ahai, the Others coming without a Northern king to fight them, Rickon and his trust in Jon, etc.

Dude, can't you make this point over on the GNC thread. We know your arguments already. This place is for people who don't buy it.

[ItRhymesWithChic]

As far as I understand it, Jon is Robb's heir because he was legitimized, which would put him next in line over Bran/Rickon.

If R+L=J and that becomes common knowledge in Westeros, Jon is no longer next in line to be Robb's heir, due to Lyanna being Ned's younger sister. (This assumes that Bran/Rickon are known to be alive, which Manderly obviously does).

Sadly Jon can't be Lord Commander King of the North and the Iron Throne and and and and everything :(

[Boromir_Stark]

Why would Howland Reed see Jon Targaryen as the "King of the Realm"?

Reed fought on the Baratheon side in the rebellion, so wouldn't he support Stannis (assuming he knows about Tommen and Myrcella's illegitimacy)?

[Bob the Fiddler]

I've read this whole damn post and the all the "Grand Northern Conspiracy ("GNC")" parts offered by Yeade's Bookmark. The latest is here: http://zincpiccalilli.tumblr.com/post/55137389519

I'm pretty much totally on board with this theory, but like most readers, I'm waiting for GRRM to stick it in our keesters, as is his wont.

Should the GNC occur it will inevitably put Stannis at odds with Jon and his northern supporters. This conflict maybe forshadowed early in TWOW when we get back to the Wall.

When we leave the Wall at the end of ADWD, Bowen Marsh is attempting to assassinate Jon and Wun Wun, the giant, is massacring a Queensmen knight who decided to play rough with him. IIRC, wildings currently outnumber both NW men and Queensmen. They have also professed a strong loyalty to Jon after he read the Bastard (Pink) letter. I would not be surprised if Tormund and the Wildlings open up a can on NW plotters and the Queensmen a like. This may occur without a POV as Jon is in a coma recovering from his wounds, or dead (yet to resurrected - no way he's dead for good). Anyway, this may foreshadow a later point where Jon, representing the North and the wildlings, is put into direct conflict with Stannis, who represent the Queensmen/the South/Non-Northerners.

That being said, I think Brienne is going to kill Stannis somehow. See ACOK Chpt. 33 Catelyn IV. When Catelyn tells her that Stannis is responsible for Renly's death Brienne swears that she will kill him three times.