The Great Northern Conspiracy REALISTICALLY/and GRRM comments?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

How can the fact that Jon Snow has sworn an oath to the Night's Watch - and the fact that he has been refused to be named Lord Stark of Winterfell by Stannis Baratheon - be ignored by both Jon and the Lords of the North. They cannot make him their king. Nor can they make him King of Westeros. And Howland Reed, the guy who should know about Jon's heritage, is the very guy Galbart Glover and Maege Mormont are most likely with right now, so he will take precautions to prevent them from naming Jon King in the North.

Robb can legitimize bastards as king, but he cannot possible unmake an oath Jon swore in front of an heart tree. Bran can do something like that, but not Robb. But Bran and Bloodraven most certainly don't want to make anyone King in the North.

The King's Guard were also suppose to server for life, but Cersei and Joffery changed the rule. Rules are changed and broken all the time. It happens. Send 100 men in Jon's place, and Jon will be relieved of his vows.

Not really a problem.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

And who is going to want to make a fire wight or a zombie, or another undead guy king? If this leads to the NW rejecting him - and only that could reasonably lead to Jon giving up his post as LC, he has way too much invested in all that - how on earth is the North or Westeros going to accept him.

Whoever succeeds Jon as Lord Commander - he will be an idiot who is going to ruin everything Jon worked for. If Jon returns soon, he'll take his post back. If he is out of the picture for too long, the Others will arrive, and the NW might be force to leave/flee the Wall entirely.

That way, it could also be 'disbanded'. But that would hardly be the time to press any claims, would it?

Jon will not be a wight or undead. At worst, he will be what Beric Dondarrion was after his first death. However, since he can warg, he will likely enter ghost while Melisandre heals his wounds and body, thereby preserving his entire consciousness.

Jon will awaken and put things to rights at the Wall.

[Lord Varys]

Not if you commit to the old gods. That's supposed to be a serious commitment. Do you people forget Lord Ryswell and his son? Do you forget Ned's attitude towards deserters? I'm quite sure Jon himself has no intention to leave the Night's Watch, nor is he going to want to steal Bran and Rickon's claim. And I'm quite sure Bran will speak to him should his spirit end up in Ghost's body.

He'll learn soon that his brothers are alive.

[Lady Pounce of Whiskerrun]

Ah...but the will was created on the premise of Robb's brothers being dead. Jon would likely assume the title to keep the North away from a Lannister or other southern pretender, but he would certainly yield power to Rickon or Sansa should she be free of Lannister influence.

The will is one piece of the puzzle. Jon must also choose to accept the position,

Just to clarify...Robb did believe Bran and Rickon were dead when he wrote the will. However, he knew his sister was alive but deliberately wanted to pass over her. At a high level, the will is saying (I/we imagine), "no trueborn sibling will inherit my kingdom, I name Jon Snow, now Jon Stark, my sole heir."

If Rickon shows up, does the will still stand? I doubt it includes a "...unless it should happen that Bran or Rickon is found alive" clause. So it would depend on Jon (if he's alive, if he renounces the rights bestowed on him in Robb's will, etc.).

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Not if you commit to the old gods. That's supposed to be a serious commitment. Do you people forget Lord Ryswell and his son? Do you forget Ned's attitude towards deserters? I'm quite sure Jon himself has no intention to leave the Night's Watch, nor is he going to want to steal Bran and Rickon's claim. And I'm quite sure Bran will speak to him should his spirit end up in Ghost's body.

He'll learn soon that his brothers are alive.

Still not seeing your point. King's Guard swear to the Seven that they will guard the king until death. This was a rule that was made up and it is a rule that can be changed. The same goes for the Night's Watch. Deserters are killed due to the king's laws. The king's laws can be changed.

Mance Rayder and others have deserted. I don't see the Old Gods rising up and striking them down.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Just to clarify...Robb did believe Bran and Rickon were dead when he wrote the will. However, he knew his sister was alive but deliberately wanted to pass over her. At a high level, the will is saying (I/we imagine), "no trueborn sibling will inherit my kingdom, I name Jon Snow, now Jon Stark, my sole heir."

If Rickon shows up, does the will still stand? I doubt it includes a "...unless it should happen that Bran or Rickon is found alive" clause. So it would depend on Jon (if he's alive, if he renounces the rights bestowed on him in Robb's will, etc.).

I'm not sure how your point differs from my point. Robb wanted to pass Sansa over only because of her marriage to Tyrion. He also believed Arya was dead. Jon was all that was left to him.

[Lady Pounce of Whiskerrun]

I'm not sure how your point differs from my point. Robb wanted to pass Sansa over only because of her marriage to Tyrion. He also believed Arya was dead. Jon was all that was left to him.

Right--all I meant to clarify was that, to your point, while Jon may decline being named Robb's heir, the will itself was likely not drafted in a way that leaves any ambiguity as to Robb's wishes. So, I think it's possible that if Jon 1) lives and 2) accepts Robb's decree, then even if Rickon shows up, he (Rickon) wouldn't inherit.

Sorry for any confusion! Just wanted to make sure that my original intent was clear, not argue.

[Steve Moss II]

I also think Robb's Will had no opt-out provisions. Robb was a tactical genius. He knew that his enemies intended to use Sansa's Lannister children to take over the North. He would have placed Jon ahead of his true born siblings, just so there was no doubt that Jon's claim trumped Sansa's (Ned and Catelyn's second child).

[Indigocell]

I think it's a good theory, I had some suspicions about it during my read-through. There's usually a conspiracy going on somewhere, so it's totally plausible.

Realistically, if I were GRRM I would probably avoid fan theories and decline to comment on any of them for fear of revealing too much.

[qixoticneurotic]

The King's Guard were also suppose to server for life, but Cersei and Joffery changed the rule. Rules are changed and broken all the time. It happens. Send 100 men in Jon's place, and Jon will be relieved of his vows.

Not really a problem.

or you could send them all. my theory is that with jons efforts to establish lords in the gift we are seeing the foundations for the republic of the first men. the wildlings choose the nobles and the nobles choose the lord commander. what does being king mean? hes in charge. the lord commander is effectively the king over the gift so if the north wanst jon for their king then all they need do to have jon be in charge of them is present themselves to the nights watch. what duties they would normally pay to the crown they would instead give to the watch. nothing else need really change. bran inherits winterfell rickon gets the dreadfort all lands north of the twins are given to the watch. queen alysanne did it and so could stannis. stannis' gift. boom jon is effectively king in the north and never leaves the watch. or you could frame it that in shame for thier rebellion against their rightful king the lords of the north have simultaneously taken the black and willed their lands to the watch. an appeal that would simultaneously appeal to stannis sense of justice and removed themselves from any obligation they might have of following him south to stake his claim.

[TheNorth's1stKnight]

if jon is crowned king in the north i don't see him abandoning stannis since he helped save the night's watch.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

if jon is crowned king in the north i don't see him abandoning stannis since he helped save the night's watch.

Abandoning Stannis, no. Refusing to waste men to support his claim, yes.

[Petyr Patter]

if jon is crowned king in the north i don't see him abandoning stannis since he helped save the night's watch.

Stannis is a devout "unionist." He sees Westeros as one nation, despite the "7 kingdom nomenclature." Any who would break up the nation is a "secesh" (to use the American Civil War terminology), or a traitor secessionist.

So, if Jon (or anyone) accepts "King in the North," it will have to be over Stannis's dead body. Which, may or may not happen. Plus, there is the fact that both Manderly and the Glovers owe Stannis big, and the Karstarks are kind of stuck with him now.

[Jon Blackfyre]

Stannis is a devout "unionist." He sees Westeros as one nation, despite the "7 kingdom nomenclature." Any who would break up the nation is a "secesh" (to use the American Civil War terminology), or a traitor secessionist.

So, if Jon (or anyone) accepts "King in the North," it will have to be over Stannis's dead body. Which, may or may not happen. Plus, there is the fact that both Manderly and the Glovers owe Stannis big, and the Karstarks are kind of stuck with him now.

In that train of thought, what are the chances Stannis would back Jon as the true king if it was satisfactorily revealed that R+L=J is true? For as strict to the law as he is it would be mighty hypocritical for him to still claim to be the King if Jon had a better claim.

Then again, Robert started a new "dynasty" when he successfully rebelled so chances are Stannis would be of the mind that the Targaryen's no longer have claim unless they can take it from him first.

[Black Wolf Smith]

The King's Guard were also suppose to server for life, but Cersei and Joffery changed the rule. Rules are changed and broken all the time. It happens. Send 100 men in Jon's place, and Jon will be relieved of his vows.

I think the rule got changed when the MK guards started protecting Robert. As for the rules of the NW changing, after being attacked by his "friends" if the North can find men to stand his watch, both the higher NW officers, and likely Jon himself, will agree, and he will be set free.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I think the rule got changed when the MK guards started protecting Robert. As for the rules of the NW changing, after being attacked by his "friends" if the North can find men to stand his watch, both the higher NW officers, and likely Jon himself, will agree, and he will be set free.

The only surviving members of Aerys' KG were Ser Barristan and of course Jaime. Robert pardoned them both. Ser Barristan as always fought like and demon and was near death on the Trident, Aerys was dead so he accepted Robert's Pardon. And we know what Jamie did and why he did it.

The rule did not change until Cersei and Joffery dismissed Ser Barristan in favor of the hound.

[Lord Varys]

Jon Snow will never accept to be King in the North. Not with the Others coming. How is that going to help him? He just got assassinated because he made a deal with the wildlings. He thinks he and the Night's Watch protect the realms of men. Why the hell would he think that this does not extent to the southern kingdoms?! Especially when it's evident that they would need men and support from down there in the coming war?

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Jon Snow will never accept to be King in the North. Not with the Others coming. How is that going to help him? He just got assassinated because he made a deal with the wildlings. He thinks he and the Night's Watch protect the realms of men. Why the hell would he think that this does not extent to the southern kingdoms?! Especially when it's evident that they would need men and support from down there in the coming war?

So here's what you can do. You can make Jon Warden of the North and Lord of Winterfell, directly passing up Rickon and Sansa. You can make Rickon warden of the North in the face of the Others. Or you could have a unified north, fighting against the Others in a more effective manner. If and when Jon is crowned, he can make Rickon lord of Winterfell. He knows that if the north falls, everywhere else is screwed. Absolutely screwed. If he does not act, more and more wights can be resurrected. With Aegon fighting for the Iron Throne and the Lannisters having no men to spare, and Dany not even at Westeros, why should he expect any help from the south? The Night's Watch does protect the rest of the realm, but th Others aren't going to be getting to the south unless they defeat the north.

[TheNorth's1stKnight]

i doubt jon snow will be the new king of the north and then just abandon stannis after he saved the nights watch and the north from a wildling invasion

[Ludd]

Whatever happens there will be a battle between forces allied to Jon and forces allied to Cat. Thuis has been foreshadowed since Ned Chapters in Book 1.

I am assuming Jon/Stannis versus Sansa/LF/Cat/BF/Jeyne. The Manderly connection with Rickon may be the way out of the impasse