The Great Northern Conspiracy REALISTICALLY/and GRRM comments?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Isn't it fairly obvious how Ned knew where Lyanna was?

Rhaegar and Lyanna are together at the ToJ.

Rhaegar returns to KL.

Rhaegar leads army and is killed.

Lannisters take KL.

Ned arrives at KL shortly thereafter.

Ned and Robert quarrel about treatment of Targaryen children.

Ned lifts siege of Storm's End.

Ned goes to ToJ.

I believe Ned found out Lyanna's location while at KL, where Rhaegar had been just before the battle resulting in his death. Going to Storm's End first was simple military necessity.

Not that simple. Rhaegar would not just give out the location of Lyanna and his son. I'm sure he said he was in the South, but I doubt he told Aerys or anyone else his exact location.

Ned left KL for the specific purpose of finishing the war in the South. Finding Lyanna was still an objective certainly, but he had no idea where she was.

[SerWalterPuffsAlot]

Maybe a little bird got the info to Ned... does it matter in the scheme of things how he found out? just trying to see exactly where u guys are going with out reading 15 pages of forum to figure it out

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Maybe a little bird got the info to Ned... does it matter in the scheme of things how he found out? just trying to see exactly where u guys are going with out reading 15 pages of forum to figure it out

You are right that this discussion is taking too long and going off course. But to make a long story short, the question is how exactly did Ned locate his sister at the Tower of Joy.

Rhaegar had been missing for quite some time. Robert's Rebellion was allowed to fester out of control during his absence. Three of the strongest knights of the King's Guard, including the arguably the greatest warrior in Westerosi history in Arthur Dayne, were missing from the battle. Additionally, Westeros is a huge continent. How was Ned able to finally pinpoint the TOJ?

Another question is why would Ned battle three strong warriors with only seven men.

[Borsabil]

Maybe a little bird got the info to Ned... does it matter in the scheme of things how he found out? just trying to see exactly where u guys are going with out reading 15 pages of forum to figure it out

If it doesn't matter why hasn't GRRM explained to the reader how Ned found out? When Ned's having his flashback he doesn't think about who told him where he could find his sister, or how he found her, or really anything regarding the event leading up the fight at the ToJ. Whoever told him MAY (I stress the word) also know about R + L = J, which I think would be a pretty bloody important development for the story. Who told him? Why did he/she/they tell him? Why have they kept it secret all these years. It might be that Ned simply heard a rumor that his sister was somewhere south and he merely got lucky in finding her. It might be he only took 7 men because he was in a hurry, and speed was of the essence (which begs the question of why he was in such a hurry), or perhaps there is something more. My pet theory is that he did a deal with one of the KG, protect the heir from Robert in return for the location of his sister, makes sense to me, but proof of anything regarding this in the text is nil.

[Stannis the Menace]

Another question is why would Ned battle three strong warriors with only seven men.

7 Men on horses moves much swifter than an entire army. Im sure Ned thought time was of the essence

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

7 Men on horses moves much swifter than an entire army. Im sure Ned thought time was of the essence

I agree completely. Additionally, Ned likely was hoping to avoid further bloodshed since the war was all but over. Ned also likely wanted the men he trusted the most for the rescue mission.

I was just reiterating the importance of the discussion that was taking place to a previous poster.

[Borsabil]

7 Men on horses moves much swifter than an entire army. Im sure Ned thought time was of the essence

Why is that? Do you think Ned thought his sisters life was in danger? From who?

[Joe Pine]

7 Men on horses moves much swifter than an entire army. Im sure Ned thought time was of the essence

Can I say maybe/maybe not.

In terms of getting to the Tower of Joy quickly, yeah, northern riders, experienced fighters in Roberts Rebellion, travelling light, swords, food, the minimum of stuff needed to get there.

But they knew they'd be likely to find the so far unaccounted for members of the Kingsguard. Serious swordsmen, likely to be well armed, well armoured and with a defensible tower.

For me, Ned doesn't want to fight this, there and then, the 7-3 advantage when up against the best knights isn't going to be overwhelming enough, he's there to talk to parley to try and say 'fair enough, you served your oath', I'm a brother doing his family duty.. That sort of thing.

A group of 20 horsemen could travel light and as fast as seven in my guess. 30 maybe, tipping point is 40 to 50 I suppose. If Ned knew there was going to be a fight, he'd want force of arms, he'd want an advantage or a reserve to through in if things are going badly.

By the conclusion of Robert's Rebellion, Ned is an experienced war leader, he's not the best sword in Westeros, he's still a good sword, young enough and he's presumably carrying a Valryian blade, but he's an idea of what he's up against, the risk involved.

I'm not convinced Howland Reed has a 'yoda' moment, but does he distract Dayne?

There's a pile of gaps to fill in that backstory.

[Ser Skwisgaar]

By the conclusion of Robert's Rebellion, Ned is an experienced war leader, he's not the best sword in Westeros, he's still a good sword, young enough and he's presumably carrying a Valryian blade, but he's an idea of what he's up against, the risk involved.

Yeah, that's the Ned we all know and love - the guy who always is totally aware of the risks involved. :smoking:

[QueenOfWhiteWalkers]

What is the Northern Conspiracy Theory? This is the first I've heard of this.

[Petyr Patter]

What is the Northern Conspiracy Theory? This is the first I've heard of this.

It is about a half a dozen things, but the major bullet points are...

• Numerous Northern Lords are working together in secret. Hence, Great, Northern, and Conspiracy.
  
• After this, it gets hazy, but...
  
• The ultimate goal is to restore the King in the North, as a Stark.
  
• Stannis, Bolton, and Frey are being played against each other until such a time when striking is most convient.
  
• Most commonly, Robb's will is the inspiration for the conspiracy, with a plan to crown Jon Snow King in the North.
  

[QueenOfWhiteWalkers]

It is about a half a dozen things, but the major bullet points are...

• Numerous Northern Lords are working together in secret. Hence, Great, Northern, and Conspiracy.
  
• After this, it gets hazy, but...
  
• The ultimate goal is to restore the King in the North, as a Stark.
  
• Stannis, Bolton, and Frey are being played against each other until such a time when striking is most convient.
  
• Most commonly, Robb's will is the inspiration for the conspiracy, with a plan to crown Jon Snow King in the North.
  

How can Jon be King of the North, if he is half Targ? Rickon

[Black Wolf Smith]

How can Jon be King of the North, if he is half Targ? Rickon

The belief that Robb named him Legit, heir, and provided a proposal to get him out of the NW in his will. We know that Cat didn't want him to, but at that point he didn't care much of her opinion. Robb thought both of his brothers were dead, and did not want the Lannisters to take control of WF and the North by marring Sansa. The half Targ isn't know by anyone, so that doesn't come into this. Rickon and Bran might, depending on what the will actually says.

[Borsabil]

Can I say maybe/maybe not.

In terms of getting to the Tower of Joy quickly, yeah, northern riders, experienced fighters in Roberts Rebellion, travelling light, swords, food, the minimum of stuff needed to get there.

But they knew they'd be likely to find the so far unaccounted for members of the Kingsguard. Serious swordsmen, likely to be well armed, well armoured and with a defensible tower.

For me, Ned doesn't want to fight this, there and then, the 7-3 advantage when up against the best knights isn't going to be overwhelming enough, he's there to talk to parley to try and say 'fair enough, you served your oath', I'm a brother doing his family duty.. That sort of thing.

A group of 20 horsemen could travel light and as fast as seven in my guess. 30 maybe, tipping point is 40 to 50 I suppose. If Ned knew there was going to be a fight, he'd want force of arms, he'd want an advantage or a reserve to through in if things are going badly.

By the conclusion of Robert's Rebellion, Ned is an experienced war leader, he's not the best sword in Westeros, he's still a good sword, young enough and he's presumably carrying a Valryian blade, but he's an idea of what he's up against, the risk involved.

I'm not convinced Howland Reed has a 'yoda' moment, but does he distract Dayne?

There's a pile of gaps to fill in that backstory.

1) Again why would Ned be in a hurry? His sister had been missing for over a year, the war was over and he was on the winning side. Why was he in such a rush?? Did he think Lyanna was in danger, from who?

2) How did Ned know that there were 3 KG guarding Lyanna? If he knew that why was he in such a rush to get to her, these were honorable men, he surely wouldn't have though they'd be a danger to her?

So if Ned thought his sister was in danger I reckon it could only be because he knew she was knocked up by Rhaegar, and wanted to get to her before word leaked out that she'd given birth.

If he knew she was pregant it suggests some one very close to Rhaegar told him.

Ned did parley with the KG when he got to the ToJ, he did not expect to fight them or hoped they'd see sense? Ned was not stupid, he must have had reason to hope/expect no fight.

[SerWalterPuffsAlot]

I would def like to know how he found out where his sis and the whole story behind that and the insuing fight, but i could see GRRM telling us about the fight and lil Howland Reed info and completley leave the "how" they got there part out without effecting the story at all. But do u guys and girls have any ideas on a person that could of let Ned know and how it would effect the story? i'd love some theories( not like we have anything else to read)

[The Giver]

Is it possible that Lyanna found out that Rhaegar was dead (and that the war was over), and sent a raven to let Ned know where she was?

After all, what was she planning on doing now that Robert had won and she was going to have Rhaegar's baby? When Ned does get to her, she wants him to protect her child, so maybe she was already thinking about that option before he even got there.

[bogdevil]

Is it possible that Lyanna found out that Rhaegar was dead (and that the war was over), and sent a raven to let Ned know where she was?

After all, what was she planning on doing now that Robert had won and she was going to have Rhaegar's baby? When Ned does get to her, she wants him to protect her child, so maybe she was already thinking about that option before he even got there.

if that were the case, i do not think that the KG would have fought Ned. Given Ned's reputation it seems odd that the KG would even entertain the thought that Ned would harm his own nephew, especially after Ned protested so much over the murder of the other Targaryen children.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Is it possible that Lyanna found out that Rhaegar was dead (and that the war was over), and sent a raven to let Ned know where she was?

After all, what was she planning on doing now that Robert had won and she was going to have Rhaegar's baby? When Ned does get to her, she wants him to protect her child, so maybe she was already thinking about that option before he even got there.

As far as we know, only Ned and Howland Reed were the only ones left alive to know the truth of what happened at the ToJ. So, I'm assuming Rhaegar kept things so secret that he allowed no maester or birth maid to be present. Additionally, the KG would not have let any ravens fly from the Tower.

[Borsabil]

As far as we know, only Ned and Howland Reed were the only ones left alive to know the truth of what happened at the ToJ. So, I'm assuming Rhaegar kept things so secret that he allowed no maester or birth maid to be present. Additionally, the KG would not have let any ravens fly from the Tower.

I'd be amazed if Rhaegar didn't at least provide for a midwife, in fact I'm sure he'd have left provision for servants and a Maester. Why would Rhaegar want to keep things so secret? Did he expect to die when he rode north? Anyway the idea he wouldn't have provided for the birth of his own son, who he thinks is the PtwP because he might lose a war, is well ....silly.

By the time Ned got there Lyanna had already given birth, perhaps days before. She was in a bed of blood, postpartum hemorrhage, which means that any measter/midwife would still be there tending to her. I'm thinking more than Howland Reed know about R + L = J. Ned didn't mention anyone else in his flashback, but I don't think that proves much as it was written to reveal only fragments of memory, with the bits GRRM didn't want the reader to know left out I.e the identity of the baby (obviously) and what went down during and after the fight at ToJ.

I would def like to know how he found out where his sis and the whole story behind that and the insuing fight, but i could see GRRM telling us about the fight and lil Howland Reed info and completley leave the "how" they got there part out without effecting the story at all. But do u guys and girls have any ideas on a person that could of let Ned know and how it would effect the story? i'd love some theories( not like we have anything else to read)

We assume Howland Reed is the only one who knows Jon's true identity because Ned thought about him when he flashed back to seeing his sister before she died. We don't know for sure who else was there. We don't know what Ned told the Daynes when he took Dawn back to Starfall. I guess something along the lines of 'hey guys, sorry to tell you but Arthurs dead, I killed him as he wouldn't give me Lyanna back. Where's she? Oh she's dead as well. What's that? Well I don't want to talk about how she died but anyway I brought back Dawn oh and I took my new bastard with me for the visit, anyone got spare milk?' I think more than Reed know about Jon's identity, which will be very important when GRRM is deciding how to reveal. In other words it's highly likely we'll get a more detailed explanation of what happened at theToJ.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I'd be amazed if Rhaegar didn't at least provide for a midwife, in fact I'm sure he'd have left provision for servants and a Maester. Why would Rhaegar want to keep things so secret? Did he expect to die when he rode north? Anyway the idea he wouldn't have provided for the birth of his own son, who he thinks is the PtwP because he might lose a war, is well ....silly.

By the time Ned got there Lyanna had already given birth, perhaps days before. She was in a bed of blood, postpartum hemorrhage, which means that any measter/midwife would still be there tending to her. I'm thinking more than Howland Reed know about R + L = J. Ned didn't mention anyone else in his flashback, but I don't think that proves much as it was written to reveal only fragments of memory, with the bits GRRM didn't want the reader to know left out I.e the identity of the baby (obviously) and what went down during and after the fight at ToJ.

Silly? Once again, you write as if you know the story, which you do not. Why keep it so secret? Oh....let me see...the prince of the realm has eloped with the betrothed daughter of one the greatest lords in all of the realm, shaming his wife, her family and all of Dorne. Not mention backstabbing his cousin, whom was also one of the greatest lords in all the realm. Time and secrecy were of the essence.

The lack of a midwife may also explain Lyanna's death to some degree. Ser Arthur Dayne or Oswell Whent seeing to the birth and not being familiar with the proper procedures of the day could have aided in her demise. By the time Ned reached her, it is likely she had just given birth within a few hours of his arrival. All of the blood being the result of a harried and rushed pregnancy. If Lyanna was being tended by servants and a midwife its highly unlikely they would have left her lying in a bed soaked with her own blood. And I don't see Ned Stark silencing small folk.

But the very idea of all of this is just silly. You obviously know the story. GRRM leaving Ned and Howland Reed as the lone survivors is just an accident.