The Great Northern Conspiracy REALISTICALLY/and GRRM comments?

[Borsabil]

Oh and one other thing, I'm pre supposing that a KG member would have told Ned about the baby and where his sister was after Rhaegar was dead and the throne had been overthrown. As a Kings Guard his sworn duty is to protect the crown, which comes way way before any loyalty he might feel to his sworn brothers. I can well imagine a scenario where even an honorable KG member like Dayne or Selmy would have justified it on the grounds that a) Ned was known to be an honorable man who would never countenance the murder of children (his reaction to the slaughter at KL proved that) and B) given this he was the best and maybe only hope of saving the life of the heir, being his kin besides, telling him about it and coming to an arrangement would seem a pretty plausible scenario.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

So what you're saying is that Mace Tyrell is in on the R+L=J thing? Why do I say that? Because it's clear to a blind man that Ned was well aware that his sister had a Targ baby inside her when he set off for the ToJ. A Lord Paramount traipsing off to face the most baddest of badass knights with a few men including a midget frog eater? Clearly he wanted to keep what he found under wraps and took as few men with him as possible so as Robert wouldn't find out, otherwise why not take an army? We don't know exactly what happened when Ned fought the KG, only that only he and Reed left the ToJ, presumably with Jon. I'm not 100% wedded to the idea that one of the KG was in on it, but he got the info from somewhere, and not just where his sister was but what would be found when he got there. I think that's going to be really important to Jon's character arc, as presumably more than Reed are in on the secret.

First off, don't put words into my mouth. And more importantly, don't say what is clear and what is not, as you did not write the books.

Secondly, what I am saying is exactly what I said. Ned was likely tipped off by someone in the Tyrell retinue. I don't think I mentioned Mace Tyrell specifically. It could have been a number of people. When Rhaegar set off for King's Landing, I doubt he was alone on his travels. We know the three KG were with him, but it can be assumed that others were as well.

Richard Lonmouth and Myles Mooten were squires of Rhaegar, who remainded close personal friends after he knighted them. They may have been with Rhaegar on his way back to KL and let it slip to others where they had been.

Lastly, your KG theory is pretty ludicrous and stinks to the high heavens. The theory runs counter to everything we know about the KG in general and about this KG in particular. The war was finished when Ned headed out for the TOJ. Storm's End the Tyrells were the only real obstacle remaining.

A search party of seven close companions is not unreal. Additionally, go back to Ned's dream. He said we were seven against three. He was more than confident of the odds he faced at the time.

[Borsabil]

First off, don't put words into my mouth. And more importantly, don't say what is clear and what is not, as you did not write the books.

Secondly, what I am saying is exactly what I said. Ned was likely tipped off by someone in the Tyrell retinue. I don't think I mentioned Mace Tyrell specifically. It could have been a number of people. When Rhaegar set off for King's Landing, I doubt he was alone on his travels. We know the three KG were with him, but it can be assumed that others were as well.

Richard Lonmouth and Myles Mooten were squires of Rhaegar, who remainded close personal friends after he knighted them. They may have been with Rhaegar on his way back to KL and let it slip to others where they had been.

Lastly, your KG theory is pretty ludicrous and stinks to the high heavens.

Jeez dude why do you have to act like a rude dick every time someone disagrees with you? Weird.

Anyway like I said, you're theorizing that Rhaegar told the Tyrells, or Tyrell men if you will, that he'd knocked up the Stark girl and where she was. That these Tyrell men wouldn't have told their sworn Lord about it after the war was done but did tell Ned who'd been their sworn enemy until 5 minutes previously? And with all these rumors flying around no one has subsequently suspected that Jon is a Targ? I think that SOMEONE told Ned about the pregnancy as his action to only take a small retinue with him when he went to the ToJ doesn't make sense otherwise. I also think that very few knew about the pregnancy as the rumor has never surfaced subsequently. I think Rhaegar only told those who needed to know, I.e. The KG protecting the heir and maybe a few servants sent to look after L and the future J. What we definitely know is that this has been a very tightly held secret and the idea that the Tyrell host were gossiping about it at Stormsend makes no sense.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Jeez dude why do you have to act like a rude dick every time someone disagrees with you? Weird.

Anyway like I said, you're theorizing that Rhaegar told the Tyrells, or Tyrell men if you will, that he'd knocked up the Stark girl and where she was. That these Tyrell men wouldn't have told their sworn Lord about it after the war was done but did tell Ned who'd been their sworn enemy until 5 minutes previously? And with all these rumors flying around no one has subsequently suspected that Jon is a Targ? I think that SOMEONE told Ned about the pregnancy as his action to only take a small retinue with him when he went to the ToJ doesn't make sense otherwise. I also think that very few knew about the pregnancy as the rumor has never surfaced subsequently. I think Rhaegar only told those who needed to know, I.e. The KG protecting the heir and maybe a few servants sent to look after L and the future J. What we definitely know is that this has been a very tightly held secret and the idea that the Tyrell host were gossiping about it at Stormsend makes no sense.

I don't care about disagreement. I welcome it, as that is what discussion is all about. I do however take offense to or anyone else twisting my words and telling me what I think. I think that is pretty rude and dick like. Additionally, telling me what a blind man can see when you don't how it happened for a certainty is also pretty dick like. I will leave it there, as I don't want to start a war.

Never said Rhaegar told anyone about Lyanna. He or his retainers may have let it slip that they had either come from Dorne or the TOJ. Either way, it would not be hard to surmise that Rhaegar had come from Dorne. He was riding in from the south.

[Borsabil]

I don't care about disagreement. I welcome it, as that is what discussion is all about. I do however take offense to or anyone else twisting my words and telling me what I think. I think that is pretty rude and dick like. Additionally, telling me what a blind man can see when you don't how it happened for a certainty is also pretty dick like. I will leave it there, as I don't want to start a war.

Never said Rhaegar told anyone about Lyanna. He or his retainers may have let it slip that they had either come from Dorne or the TOJ. Either way, it would not be hard to surmise that Rhaegar had come from Dorne. He was riding in from the south.

I wasn't being rude at all, but anyway.

So you're saying Ned didn't know about the pregnancy before he left for the ToJ? That he wasn't told exactly where his sister was but that some of the Tyrell men had a rough idea where Rhaegar had come from and let Ned in on it because??? And Ned got lucky and found her. I don't want to put words into your mouth I'm asking. If he didn't know about the pregnancy then why did he only take seven men with him, including a midget frog eater? The only plausible explanation I can come up with is that he wanted as few people to know about what he'd find there as possible. From what we can discern from his PoV he sure didn't seem surprised to find the KG there when he rocked up. So he took a tiny force with him when he knew he'd be battling Ser Arthur friggin Dayne, the baddest of badasses ever to hold a sword. He barely escaped with his life, so why didn't he take twenty or fifty or a hundred men with him? I think my theory stands up pretty well actually and yes it's supposition but it's also logical.

Yes I get we can't know what GRRM has planned, and no one is saying that x, y or z are definites it's just a bit of fun spitballing theories.

[Baelor Swyft]

I just hope that if it turns out to be false, fans who have invested a lot into the GNC don't lash out against the book because it didn't go that way.

Me personally, I want to believe in the GNC but I think aspects of it are a bit fanciful, like pregnant Jeyne, and that George doesn't like to be so affirmative in his plot decisions. Manderly will definitely betray the Freys/Lannisters but I don't think that Jon has been crowned King or that there is currently any plan for that to happen from anyone other than perhaps Howland Reed.

ETA not that pregnant Jeyne is an aspect of the GNC, but that they're both theories with an obvious appeal to fans but that they wrap things up too neatly and traditionally for George to go for.

[Borsabil]

I just hope that if it turns out to be false, fans who have invested a lot into the GNC don't lash out against the book because it didn't go that way.

Me personally, I want to believe in the GNC but I think aspects of it are a bit fanciful, like pregnant Jeyne, and that George doesn't like to be so affirmative in his plot decisions. Manderly will definitely betray the Freys/Lannisters but I don't think that Jon has been crowned King or that there is currently any plan for that to happen from anyone other than perhaps Howland Reed.

ETA not that pregnant Jeyne is an aspect of the GNC, but that they're both theories with an obvious appeal to fans but that they wrap things up too neatly and traditionally for George to go for.

That's fair comment. We're going on pretty scant information, and all we can do is construct logical suppositions and put them out there for critique. And anyway it should be treated for what it is, a bit of fun by fans of the books.

Looking at the GNC in general we can take the words of Donald Rumsfield to mind.

"........as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know."

Or to put it another way

"The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, or vice versa."

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I wasn't being rude at all, but anyway.

So you're saying Ned didn't know about the pregnancy before he left for the ToJ? That he wasn't told exactly where his sister was but that some of the Tyrell men had a rough idea where Rhaegar had come from and let Ned in on it because??? And Ned got lucky and found her. I don't want to put words into your mouth I'm asking. If he didn't know about the pregnancy then why did he only take seven men with him, including a midget frog eater? The only plausible explanation I can come up with is that he wanted as few people to know about what he'd find there as possible. From what we can discern from his PoV he sure didn't seem surprised to find the KG there when he rocked up. So he took a tiny force with him when he knew he'd be battling Ser Arthur friggin Dayne, the baddest of badasses ever to hold a sword. He barely escaped with his life, so why didn't he take twenty or fifty or a hundred men with him? I think my theory stands up pretty well actually and yes it's supposition but it's also logical.

Yes I get we can't know what GRRM has planned, and no one is saying that x, y or z are definites it's just a bit of fun spitballing theories.

The war was officially over once the Tyrell host dipped their banners. Ned's northmen started to head back home. Ned, having been tipped off to where his sister might be, took a small contingent of his most loyal retainers to search for Lyanna. Lets say he knew three KG were missing and likely guarding Lyanna. Even with a midget like Howland Reed, that was still two good men per one KG. Ned felt pretty good about the odds. Additionally, Ned might have hoped it would not come to swords. He did not know his sister was pregnant and dying.

Go back to Ned's dream and the dialogue that took place. He let them know that Aerys was dead, Rhaegar was, the Tyrells had yielded, and the queen had fled with Viserys and Dany. He was hoping to avoid more bloodshed. He made note that the numbers were in his favor, meaning that he figured he and his companions were in good shape should it come to swords.

[Borsabil]

If Ned did feel like that then clearly he was an idiot, he came close to dying when he took on Arthur Dayne and co with only seven men.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

If Ned did feel like that then clearly he was an idiot, he came close to dying when he took on Arthur Dayne and co with only seven men.

I wouldn't call him an idiot, but I would have simply taken the KG out from horseback with bows and crossbows. GRRM pretty much said Ser Arthur was all but invincible with Dawn in his hand. I always assumed Howland Reed took a blow for Ned, giving him the split second he needed to mortally wound Dayne. I think that is why Lord Howland has never left Greywater Watch/the Neck since the war. He took a terrible wound from Ser Arthur Dayne to save his friends life.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I wouldn't call him an idiot, but I would have simply taken the KG out from horseback with bows and crossbows. GRRM pretty much said Ser Arthur was all but invincible with Dawn in his hand. I always assumed Howland Reed took a blow for Ned, giving him the split second he needed to mortally wound Dayne. I think that is why Lord Howland has never left Greywater Watch/the Neck since the war. He took a terrible wound from Ser Arthur Dayne to save his friends life.

I wouldn't call him an idiot, but I would have simply taken the KG out from horseback with bows and crossbows. GRRM pretty much said Ser Arthur was all but invincible with Dawn in his hand. I always assumed Howland Reed took a blow for Ned, giving him the split second he needed to mortally wound Dayne. I think that is why Lord Howland has never left Greywater Watch/the Neck since the war. He took a terrible wound from Ser Arthur Dayne to save his friends life.

I found a really good theory that Ned was fighting Arthur one on one after everyone except him Arthur and Howland was dead. Ned was losing the fight, so the theory goes that Howland shot Arthur with a poisoned dart, which hindered him enough for Ned to finish him off.

[Borsabil]

I wouldn't call him an idiot, but I would have simply taken the KG out from horseback with bows and crossbows. GRRM pretty much said Ser Arthur was all but invincible with Dawn in his hand. I always assumed Howland Reed took a blow for Ned, giving him the split second he needed to mortally wound Dayne. I think that is why Lord Howland has never left Greywater Watch/the Neck since the war. He took a terrible wound from Ser Arthur Dayne to save his friends life.

I'm not sure if it would have been that simple, they could have taken cover in the tower. I think speculating about how Ned managed to defeat Ser Arthur is OK, it could have been what you suggest but it does raise the issue of how Ned would have managed to nurse Reed back to health etc. It could have been as simple as that they got lucky, Dayne tripped over some loose stones, shit happens. there's no evidence either way.

So why did Ned rock up to the ToJ undermanned? Because he thought, wrongly, that he had enough back up to take out the KG there? If he didn't think he'd encounter the three KG then taking so few men is even crazier, for all he knew there could have been hundreds of pissed off Dornishmen looking for traitor blood. Or was it because he needed to keep things on the down low, that only taking a few trusted banner men was necessary even if it risked taking on Arthur Dayne and co without the needed manpower. Of course we're guessing, we don't know what exactly Ned was told about his sister before he went looking for her, but I'm pretty sure that Ned knew he'd encounter the three KG when he found her, and given that wouldn't he at the very least have wondered what the hell 3 KG, including the commander and the greatest Knight who ever lived, were doing guarding Lyanna?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I found a really good theory that Ned was fighting Arthur one on one after everyone except him Arthur and Howland was dead. Ned was losing the fight, so the theory goes that Howland shot Arthur with a poisoned dart, which hindered him enough for Ned to finish him off.

I've heard this theory, but think it is too dishonorable for Ned.

[Borsabil]

I found a really good theory that Ned was fighting Arthur one on one after everyone except him Arthur and Howland was dead. Ned was losing the fight, so the theory goes that Howland shot Arthur with a poisoned dart, which hindered him enough for Ned to finish him off.

Yeah you can come up with a hundred scenarios, we don't know. What we do know is that Ned came within a hairsbreadth of having his ass kicked, but we have no idea how he managed to over come Dayne, if that's what in fact happened.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I'm not sure if it would have been that simple, they could have taken cover in the tower. I think speculating about how Ned managed to defeat Ser Arthur is OK, it could have been what you suggest but it does raise the issue of how Ned would have managed to nurse Reed back to health etc. It could have been as simple as that they got lucky, Dayne tripped over some loose stones, shit happens. there's no evidence either way.

So why did Ned rock up to the ToJ undermanned? Because he thought, wrongly, that he had enough back up to take out the KG there? If he didn't think he'd encounter the three KG then taking so few men is even crazier, for all he knew there could have been hundreds of pissed off Dornishmen looking for traitor blood. Or was it because he needed to keep things on the down low, that only taking a few trusted banner men was necessary even if it risked taking on Arthur Dayne and co without the needed manpower. Of course we're guessing, we don't know what exactly Ned was told about his sister before he went looking for her, but I'm pretty sure that Ned knew he'd encounter the three KG when he found her, and given that wouldn't he at the very least have wondered what the hell 3 KG, including the commander and the greatest Knight who ever lived, were doing guarding Lyanna?

Maybe because he knew his sister was there, so he took only the people he could trust?

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I've heard this theory, but think it is too dishonorable for Ned.

For Ned, yes. For Howland to do it to save Ned's life, no.

[aryagonnakill]

Didn't Howland appear in Ned's dream when Lyanna died? I am pretty sure he pulled Ned away right? he couldn't have been wounded too badly.

[Borsabil]

Didn't Howland appear in Ned's dream when Lyanna died? I am pretty sure he pulled Ned away right? he couldn't have been wounded too badly.

Yeah and that too well spotted.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Didn't Howland appear in Ned's dream when Lyanna died? I am pretty sure he pulled Ned away right? he couldn't have been wounded too badly.

There are several ways of pulling someone away, not all require force. And being such a small man, it is likely meant that he tugged on Ned's shirt or put a hand on his shoulder.

[Steve Moss II]

Isn't it fairly obvious how Ned knew where Lyanna was?

Rhaegar and Lyanna are together at the ToJ.

Rhaegar returns to KL.

Rhaegar leads army and is killed.

Lannisters take KL.

Ned arrives at KL shortly thereafter.

Ned and Robert quarrel about treatment of Targaryen children.

Ned lifts siege of Storm's End.

Ned goes to ToJ.

I believe Ned found out Lyanna's location while at KL, where Rhaegar had been just before the battle resulting in his death. Going to Storm's End first was simple military necessity.