The Great Northern Conspiracy REALISTICALLY/and GRRM comments?

[The_Mummer's_Dragon]

I disagree, we have had no POV's from any of the GNC members and the Davos scene, as well as the Frey/Manderly set to, AND even Lady Dustin, who went to the crypts to verify what the mute communicated, clearly point to multiple northern houses looking to set things right in the North. I don't think its as wildly convoluted or in danger of being noted by anyone but those involved its only the major players who seem to know.

I think the GNC really boils down to, lets get our people, lets get a Stark, and then we can eliminate every Bolton, then extinguish the Frey bloodline down to the last and get a northern line in the Twins...

After declaring her hate for the Starks to Theon it would be odd to see her helping the conspirators. But she does get along with the Boltons so she 's probably working for them. This would mean that Roose Bolton know the Stark boys are alive

[Nic.]

If every thing that is happening with Bran stays how it is he would be presumed dead and his claims would pass down the line to Rickon.

how would he be presumed dead when Rickon and Osha know he's alive?

[KingWinter]

how would he be presumed dead when Rickon and Osha know he's alive?

How do they know he is alive? They have been separated for quite some time now and if there continues to be no sign of him he will most certainly be presumed dead. The Manderlys are already planning on putting Rickon on the seat of Winterfell.

[IrishTrajan]

I don't believe that there is a unilateral agreement by the lords of the North to join in this conspiracy. I do believe they are grudgingly servants of Roose Bolton, and will revolt given a chance, but not that they are all planning a massive overthrow .__.

I do believe that the BWB will free the Northern/Riverlander prisoners from the Twins when the Frey's send them south to KL, or Baelish may attempt to free them like he did to Sansa (since he wants to claim the North in her name, what better way to do so than free the prominent Lords and reveal her identity to them?). Baelish is nothing, if not clever.

The Northern Lords will follow Bolton (since Barrowton and Dreadfort held most of their strength in reserve when the Northmen went south) until Jon Snow is proclaimed King (He could be freed from vows if he dies and is brought back by Melisandre/Fire Kiss) or Baelish reveals Sansa (with the Vale and Riverlands in his clutches, he could be a real power in the Northern half of Westeros. Reach and Crownlands will be tied up trying to subdue the Golden Company [possibly Dorne, too]. The Westerlands is exhausted after the war against the Riverlands and North). Then the Lords of the North will try and remove Stannis and the Bolton's simultaneously.

[Nic.]

How do they know he is alive? They have been separated for quite some time now and if there continues to be no sign of him he will most certainly be presumed dead. The Manderlys are already planning on putting Rickon on the seat of Winterfell.

yeah well i doubt Rickon would accept his crowning without proof that his brother is dead and considering the Wolf and warging connection it's very likely that him or his wolf knows he's alive or bran would make that connection to him.

[KingWinter]

yeah well i doubt Rickon would accept his crowning without proof that his brother is dead and considering the Wolf and warging connection it's very likely that him or his wolf knows he's alive or bran would make that connection to him.

I'm not saying that Rickon would be totally down for taking the crown. I'm just saying that in everyone's eyes Bran is most likely dead just like Arya. Also that not true about the wolf connection because Robb had no idea that Bran and Rickon were still alive when word came down that Theon had killed them.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I'm not saying that Rickon would be totally down for taking the crown. I'm just saying that in everyone's eyes Bran is most likely dead just like Arya. Also that not true about the wolf connection because Robb had no idea that Bran and Rickon were still alive when word came down that Theon had killed them.

Robb was afraid of his abilities, he denied them. Deep down he probably knew or some part of him knew or could have known if he accepted it. Rickon displayed more control over shaggydog than bran did of Summer 2 years ago. He will also undoubtably not be denying his gift as Robb did since he is young enough to believe in such things. That being said, I do not think his knowledge that Bran is alive would matter. No one is going to put stock in Bran, I doubt even Rickon would.

[TheKingoftheSevenKingdoms]

I don't think the small houses matter really nor does his claim to the iron throne. Jon' knows the true issues he's not going to leave the north, do you really see him going south? It's not him. I think his parentage with only play into his getting necessary allies for the long night aka danny and dragons and maybe uniting the 7 kingdoms into seeing the real issue...the others

By the end, Jon will be king in all but name and a seat on the throne. I want that son of a bitch to go down like a hero.

[Dorian Martell]

But if Bran becomes a tree he can keep them warm in winter but isn't of much use otherwise.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!! Thats good. Politically he is out of the picture yes.

Several northern houses, including the lord of white harbor are trying to get a stark in winterfell and declare for Stannis. Several houses have already declared for him. Even if the will is delivered and jon is alive, he has shown he does not want winterfell. The KITN is dead, and a large part of the north is rallying behind a southron king in defiance of the warden and for all practical purposes lord paramount of the north. Than makes part of it a conspiracy, a great one at that, and by virtue of taking place in the north, northern.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

I'm not saying that Rickon would be totally down for taking the crown. I'm just saying that in everyone's eyes Bran is most likely dead just like Arya. Also that not true about the wolf connection because Robb had no idea that Bran and Rickon were still alive when word came down that Theon had killed them.

The wolf connection doesn't work from south of the wall to beyond the wall, Jon I ADwD:

"Far off, he could hear his packmates calling to him, like to like. They were hunting too. A wild

rain lashed down upon his black brother [shaggydog] as he tore at the flesh of an enormous goat, washing the blood from his side where the goat’s long horn had raked him. In another place, his little sister [Nymeria] lifted her head to sing to the moon, and a hundred small grey cousins broke off their hunt to sing with her. The hills

were warmer where they were, and full of food. Many a night his sister’s pack gorged on the flesh of

sheep and cows and horses, the prey of men, and sometimes even on the flesh of man himself.

“Snow,” the moon called down again, cackling. The white wolf [Ghost] padded along the man trail

beneath the icy cliff. The taste of blood was on his tongue, and his ears rang to the song of the hundred

cousins. Once they had been six [Greywind, Ghost, Lady, Nymeria, Summer, Shaggydog] five whimpering blind in the snow beside their dead mother, sucking cool milk from her hard dead nipples whilst he crawled off alone. Four remained [Ghost, Nymeria, Summer, Shaggydog] … and one [summer] the white wolf [Ghost] could no longer sense."

[sleath56]

I believe a major arc in development for Jon, and also Ned: is that you can't place your personal honor/oaths above house and country. (Quoted from the Half-Hand)

If the North wants him to be king, I don't think I (or anyone here really) has thought what Jon would think if Rickon was forced to be king.

He already feels guilt from Robb being King. I seriously doubt his oaths would be too much consideration to him when his roughly 10 year old younger brother is made to become the king in the north (A position which already has a very low mortality rating) if he refuses.

He would be quite self-centered and selfish with lack of love for his family if he allowed such a thing to occur (which is unlike him).

If the GNC occurs, I do not believe Jon would just reject and make his younger brothers (who would be appointed regents due to their young age) take the dangerous and stressful positions.

If the GNC occurs, Jon will accept to being the King in the North.

If the GWC occurs, Jon will accept to being the King of the Seven Kingdoms.

If the GVEOEAWC occurs, Jon will accept to being the Emperor of the Valyrian Empire of Essos and Westeros.

Simply so his younger brothers wouldn't have to take the burden.

[Storm's Arrival]

The GNC seems to believe that Stark and Stannis will clash.

I think the most of the Northern Lords would support removing Stannis after the Battle of Winterfell, but i think if Jon made King of the North, would not permit it.

I think the whole point of the series of Stannis and Jon negotiations of aDwD was to establish a working relationship between Stark and Stannis.

Stannis threatened Jon numerous times for challenging his royal authority, but in the end Stannis does concede to allow the NW to continue to own the wall and its keeps (minus the Nightfort). Stannis also concedes the command of the wildling forces he was going to use as 'arrow fodder' to Jon. So Stannis can be reasoned with despite being a King of the Seven Kingdoms.

Stannis heeds Jon's advice with the clansmen and Deepwood Motte and sends word of the great benefit Jon's advice.

Stannis respects Jon as a leader and as of Stark blood, supported by the offer of legitimization and his approval of Jon's handling of Janos Slynt.

All up, Stannis has negotiated with Jon, heed advice from Jon, even begun to respect Jon.

IF the GNC is real and Jon is raised to King of the North, the Northern lord will encourage Jon to get rid of Stannis and the southerners, this I definitely agree with. However i believe Jon will not allow his bannermen to attack Stannis.

As King of the North, Jon will result to negotiation as like in aDwD (I don't think he could kill the guy who saved the wall unless forced).Stannis will mock, threaten and yes grind his teeth, but with Jon's cold steely Stark negotiating skills, I believe Stannis will concede to a comprise over Northern sovereignty.

Perhaps this comprise will be similar to Renly's offer. King in name but still sworn to the Iron Throne.

Or maybe, that he will provide a Northern host to augment Stannis' mercenary army to claim the Iron Throne in exchange for recognising the North's independence.

The only counter I can think of is the "Stannis will break before bending" quote. I believe this is only to define Stannis' extreme stubbornness, and make the negotiation between Stannis and Jon a worthwhile climax and hard fought, rather than a pleasant easy negotiation. Plus it quotes Robert as true steel.... i think that's slightly overestimating him.

[George W. Lannister]

Two quick notes:

-Just noticed upon reading the aDwD appendix that Sybelle Glover is a Locke by birth. Makes a bit more sense why Robett and Manderly would be working together, and also why there was a Locke in Manderly's court (came together with Robett?) It also makes me wonder how many updates Sybelle (and by extension, the She Bear Mormont) have had by the time of the Theon I chapter.

-Another huge assumption of the GNC is not only that Jon recovers from the stabbing, but that he doesn't become the Night King 2.0. He's going to feel incredibly bitter and enraged at what happened to him, kind of like Varamyr. Part of this belief stems from rereading Samwell's chapters that contained Maester Aemon's last words about Daenerys being tPtwP. If she is, then where does that leave Jon?

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

-snip-

Good counter argument.

[Nordahl iceskin]

I read this claim a lot that Rhaegar and Lyanna got married. But who would marry them though? :dunno:

A red priest? Azor Ahai awaits....

[Samson]

I was hoping for a bit of a summary of The Great Northern Conspiracy without going through the 19 pages- I am a bit confused as to what this term is referring to-

 

Is the conspiracy "the good guys", aka the Northern houses working together to defeat "the bad guys" aka The Crown, Boltons, etc, and get a Stark and/or Jon Snow in power?

 

Or is the conspiracy that the Northern houses conspired to help make what has already happened happen (ie the bad things, Red wedding, Boltons taking over the north, war being lost basically, etc)

 

Even a bit of a short summary would be great, if that is too much to ask I apologize and certainly won't bring it up again.  I like many others I surmise am obviously on the side of The Starks/ aka The Good Guys and hate to see not only what has already happened but what looks to keep on happening...Thanks!

[Knight of the Amused Tree]

I was hoping for a bit of a summary of The Great Northern Conspiracy without going through the 19 pages- I am a bit confused as to what this term is referring to-

 

Is the conspiracy "the good guys", aka the Northern houses working together to defeat "the bad guys" aka The Crown, Boltons, etc, and get a Stark and/or Jon Snow in power?

 

Or is the conspiracy that the Northern houses conspired to help make what has already happened happen (ie the bad things, Red wedding, Boltons taking over the north, war being lost basically, etc)

 

Even a bit of a short summary would be great, if that is too much to ask I apologize and certainly won't bring it up again.  I like many others I surmise am obviously on the side of The Starks/ aka The Good Guys and hate to see not only what has already happened but what looks to keep on happening...Thanks!

 

Basically it is that many of the Northern houses are secretly are conspiring to take on the Boltons, Freys, Lannisters, et al. To what end and who is involved is the question. Manderly is most definitely involved. Lady Dustin- who knows? The Umbers (which ones, why and how), the Glovers? Who knows about Robb's will? Does it matter? All part of the theory.

 

Check this link for all the conspiracy theories, not just the GNC. When you open the the link click on the "Spoilers" tab and you'll open up the list. Scroll down a bit and you'll see there are 4 threads on the Great Northern Conspiracy (one of my faves.) Enjoy!

 

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/109496-a-compendium-of-theories-v2/

[Samson]

THANK YOU good sir, you're a gentleman and a scholar, so few of us left, we need to stick together.

 

Just what I was looking for, much obliged.

[ErasmusF]

Brienne has made a lot of oaths (to Cat, to Jaime, to Renly) I think one of the points of her character is that she won't be able to keep them all. It's too neat and tidy for her to kill Stannis.

 

Brienne is a current analog for Duncan the Tall. Too many commitments, many based on lies or half-truths. She's the flawed hero. 

[ErasmusF]

The thing is, Jon is not an obvious choice for the final winner of the IT, like 80% of readers (maybe more) have no idea about R+L=J. So IMO when GRRM says it will be someone unexpected I think he could very easily mean Jon. To the average reader he is just Ned's cute bastard on the Wall and they have no idea about his real parentage.

 

Jon will not win the Iron Throne. It was a Prince who was promised. Not a king.