The Great Northern Conspiracy REALISTICALLY/and GRRM comments?

[Eli Stark]

I read this claim a lot that Rhaegar and Lyanna got married. But who would marry them though? :dunno:

Any random Septon. If one of the most powerful people in the realms tells you to do something, most are not going to say no.

[Borsabil]

Perhaps a random traveling septon who shows up for no apparent reason in the books? I still say that guy made no sense in the story unless he is connected to Rhaegar and Lyanna.

Back to the topic, I love the GNC Theory, but agree that if it is going on, it is most likely more about taking out the Freys and putting a Stark back in Winterfell than bringing Jon to glory. I still have this mental image of Ned's bones in a box marked "Lady Dustin's Dog Treats," all ready to be put in the Winterfell crypts. Lady Dustin doth protest too much!

I'm a bit confused as to why folks are naming Jon as the Stark the Northmen will pin their banners on. Yes Robs will naming him as heir I get, but it's clear that Lord too fat to sit a horse is well aware that the two legitimate Stark sons are still alive, which clearly invalidates the will. It will be Rickon, Jon is either dead or bound by his vows in the Night Watch. Beyond that the conspiracy has been so well flagged in the books that the only thing that makes me doubt is GRRM himself, flipping readers expectations is his thing, the old rascal.

[Urien the Ragged]

I am thankful this thread exists. Being anti-GNC on their threads is no fun.

I believe a few independent groups are converging on Winterfell. Things are intersecting, but is there a conspiracy? I don't think there is.

The GNC as described would be very difficult to carry out due to distances involved, and the amount of people who would have to know. Someone would talk.

I also don't believe the Northern Lords would for sure back Jon over Rickon. They could, but I just don't see it. I don't see him trying to jump over Rickon either. Even with Robb's will, which was written under exceedingly false pretenses.

I also think Lady Dustin is loyal to Roose. I know she hates Ramsay and the Freys, but I think she is in for Roose all the way. I read those chapters twice, the second time after reading a ton of northern threads on these boards, and I am more sure than ever that she will not betray Roose. But, I've been wrong before.

I actually think the Pink Letter is the most conspiratorial thing happening in the North. I don't buy for a second that Ramsay wrote it, especially after the WoW northern preview chapter. The parallel structure between the letter and one of the lines in that chapter seems like a giant wink from GRRM. So if Ramsay didn't, some other people must have conspired to create it.

the biggest thing to me that screams that there is no GNC is the fact that Rickon appears to be a significant part of Manderly's plan. If the Northern houses still secretly loyal to the Starks were aware of Robb's will, why would Rickon be so important? Nope, the only reason Manderly wants Rickon is because he wants influence, and Rickon trumps both Sansa and "Arya". Manderly actually has the drop on even Littlefinger, who believes Bran and Rickon to be dead, in this regard.

Stannis is all about birthright, as well, and will almost certainly return the living Starks to their lordship of the North and Winterfell, and Manderly wants his family positioned as friends and Lord Protectors of the North once this happens. Rickon is just a boy, and will doubtless bestow either the Dreadfort or Karhold or both upon the fat man, or possibly split them between the Manderlys and the Glovers for their service once the rats are rooted out. It's definitely a power play, but I don't think it's a grand conspiracy, though I admit that it's possible.

I really really hope that Martin gives us the fantastic return of Rickon and Shaggy.

[Queen Elsa]

Perhaps a random traveling septon who shows up for no apparent reason in the books? I still say that guy made no sense in the story unless he is connected to Rhaegar and Lyanna.

I hope he'll show up again (if he's still alive).

Any random Septon. If one of the most powerful people in the realms tells you to do something, most are not going to say no.

Well I guess it depends on who the septon. I doubt a very pious septon like the current High Septon (he used to be a traveling septon performing marriages, etc.) will let a married Rhaegar marry a betrothed Lyanna.

[aryagonnakill]

Perhaps a random traveling septon who shows up for no apparent reason in the books? I still say that guy made no sense in the story unless he is connected to Rhaegar and Lyanna.

He had a clear purpose, bringing Brienne to the quite isle to show us that the Sandor Clegane is still alive.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

TGNC knows Bran and Rickon survived the attack on Winterfell. There is a Liddle who knows Bran was alive. Wex knows where Rickon is. They don't know where Bran is now, or that he lives. They think Sansa is dead, and Arya is at Winterfell. Therefore, Rickon is the only true Stark they can get thier hands on. But he is a child. So, do they displace the Freys and Boltons and just hope the Iron Throne would be cool with it? No. What's the way to best protect the north? Declare a new King in the North. Who will it be? There's onyl one Stark who can do that, and it's Jon.

[mushroomshirt]

He had a clear purpose, bringing Brienne to the quite isle to show us that the Sandor Clegane is still alive.

Septon Maribald also talks about the effect of the WO5K on the smallfolk. That particular passage (when he talks about broken men) is a great example of GRRM at his best, IMO.

Since the aftermath of the war is a big theme for AFFC he fits right in.

[aryagonnakill]

Septon Maribald also talks about the effect of the WO5K on the smallfolk. That particular passage (when he talks about broken men) is a great example of GRRM at his best, IMO.

Since the aftermath of the war is a big theme for AFFC he fits right in.

Yes I thought it was a great chapter. The way he told sandors story by telling his own. It was great writing.

[Mrs_Darcy]

I'm a bit confused as to why folks are naming Jon as the Stark the Northmen will pin their banners on. Yes Robs will naming him as heir I get, but it's clear that Lord too fat to sit a horse is well aware that the two legitimate Stark sons are still alive, which clearly invalidates the will. It will be Rickon, Jon is either dead or bound by his vows in the Night Watch. Beyond that the conspiracy has been so well flagged in the books that the only thing that makes me doubt is GRRM himself, flipping readers expectations is his thing, the old rascal.

It really depends, on how the will is written. I do not think Robb wrote something like "as long as my two brothers are dead". I am not even sure, that he mentioned them at all.

Fact is, that he did legitimize Jon (the official app says so) and as Lady Catelyn said to Robb in ASoS there is no way to revoke a legitimitization, so for all people, who regarded Robb as their king, Jon is a Stark with all the rights.

There is a SSM about inheritance laws (more about the Hornwood case, but the laws apply here too) and GRRM says in this SSM, that it is not clear, whether legitimized bastard sons come behind all their trueborn brothers or whether they get their rank according to age.

Whether the Northmen actually would prefer Jon over Bran or Rickon is not clear to me. If Jon somehow gets out of his NW-vows, then he would be of an appropriate age to fight, and he has leadership experience as LC of the NW. Bran can't be found and Rickon is four or five years old, so if they want a somehow experienced ruler, they would choose Jon.

IMo Jon would probably only accept being regent for Rickon, but this is another topic.

[Freedman49]

So many great theories. I like R+L=J, but don't think it will matter when it comes to who finally sits the IT. I think Aegon and Danerys have better claims anyway. Definitely one or more factions are trying to get a Stark back in Winterfell to unite the North. I think this is important if the others are to be met and ultimately defeated (if that is in the GRRM master plan??). My theory is that Jon will be back, warging into ghost while his body heals (similar to how Bran survived his fall). Howland Reed will show up to deliver Jon the R+L=J truth and Robb's letter of legitimacy. This will be the motivation for Jon to unite the north. For this to happen Stannis will have to die or be wounded so he's unable to lead. Perhaps as he takes Winterfell. Rickon will show up with Davos and might be betrothed to Stannis's daughter to join the houses and bind Stannis's followers to Jon. Rickon will yield to Jon, and Robb's wishes, just happy to be home. Jon Stark will unite the Northen houses, Stannis's men, the wildlings and the watch. Hopefully in time to defend against the others. However when I write it down like that it seems to obvious, which perhaps makes it unlikely?

[aryagonnakill]

So many great theories. I like R+L=J, but don't think it will matter when it comes to who finally sits the IT. I think Aegon and Danerys have better claims anyway. Definitely one or more factions are trying to get a Stark back in Winterfell to unite the North. I think this is important if the others are to be met and ultimately defeated (if that is in the GRRM master plan??). My theory is that Jon will be back, warging into ghost while his body heals (similar to how Bran survived his fall). Howland Reed will show up to deliver Jon the R+L=J truth and Robb's letter of legitimacy. This will be the motivation for Jon to unite the north. For this to happen Stannis will have to die or be wounded so he's unable to lead. Perhaps as he takes Winterfell. Rickon will show up with Davos and might be betrothed to Stannis's daughter to join the houses and bind Stannis's followers to Jon. Rickon will yield to Jon, and Robb's wishes, just happy to be home. Jon Stark will unite the Northen houses, Stannis's men, the wildlings and the watch. Hopefully in time to defend against the others. However when I write it down like that it seems to obvious, which perhaps makes it unlikely?

Assuming R+L=J and assuming Aegon is at best a blackfyre, both most likely, then Jons claim is far better then Danys. That being said it may not matter.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Assuming R+L=J and assuming Aegon is at best a blackfyre, both most likely, then Jons claim is far better then Danys. That being said it may not matter.

Jon might have the better claim, but he also has the weaker army. Unless Dany marries Jon, there is no way for Jon to sit the Iron Throne, especially when he will lose much of his strength fighting the Others.

[C0bR]

the biggest thing to me that screams that there is no GNC is the fact that Rickon appears to be a significant part of Manderly's plan. If the Northern houses still secretly loyal to the Starks were aware of Robb's will, why would Rickon be so important? Nope, the only reason Manderly wants Rickon is because he wants influence, and Rickon trumps both Sansa and "Arya". Manderly actually has the drop on even Littlefinger, who believes Bran and Rickon to be dead, in this regard.

Stannis is all about birthright, as well, and will almost certainly return the living Starks to their lordship of the North and Winterfell, and Manderly wants his family positioned as friends and Lord Protectors of the North once this happens. Rickon is just a boy, and will doubtless bestow either the Dreadfort or Karhold or both upon the fat man, or possibly split them between the Manderlys and the Glovers for their service once the rats are rooted out. It's definitely a power play, but I don't think it's a grand conspiracy, though I admit that it's possible.

I really really hope that Martin gives us the fantastic return of Rickon and Shaggy.

Rickon is just a way to play Davos and get him out of the view for some time. He can't just let Davos go back to Stannis. If it becomes known that Davos is alive, then Manderly is openly revealed as a traitor and he can't afford that just now. So he sends Davos to "retrieve the Stark boy from Skagos". It is never said in the Manderly/Davos conversation that it is Rickon and Davos (who probably has no idea, that Bran is a cripple) might be thinking he is going for Bran which would corespond with Manderly wanting his "liege lord" returned. So while Davos is out of the picture in wilderness with a meaningless task (in the grand scheme of things, of course getting the boy to safety is not meaningless), Manderly can play his game further.

Of course I am not saying that it really is that way and there might even be different factions in GNC in terms of who wants who to sit in Winterfell, but it seems to me from the text, that Rickon is a decoy.

[Red Raven]

Then why save Davos in the first place? Manderly could have snicked his head and called it a day.

[C0bR]

Then why save Davos in the first place? Manderly could have snicked his head and called it a day.

Because he does not want ot go against Stannis? The North may not want to bend the knee to the Stag, but they need to be at least on friendly terms. That will hardly come to pass if Manderly murders the Hand.

[Borsabil]

Because he does not want ot go against Stannis? The North may not want to bend the knee to the Stag, but they need to be at least on friendly terms. That will hardly come to pass if Manderly murders the Hand.

Why couldn't Manderley be doing both? Send a skilled smuggler to a VERY dangerous and wild area to save Rickon which would also serve to keep Davos out of the way and prevent him spilling his guts to Stannis? The Davos/Rickon storyline is one I'm looking forward to in the WoW, I'm thinking the Stark boy will be much....changed by the time we meet him.

[Caelestis]

Because he does not want ot go against Stannis? The North may not want to bend the knee to the Stag, but they need to be at least on friendly terms. That will hardly come to pass if Manderly murders the Hand.

Also because, even if Manderly prefers a legitimised Jon to become the new King in the North (which is a very sensible opinion), Rickon is still extremely valuable: the Stark line is almost extinct at this point and if something were to happen to Jon (like, ahem, potentially dying in battle in the North's continued struggle for independence, perhaps?), then Rickon is about the only hope they have left for a Stark figure to unite the North, even if he's only a child. Sending Davos away to retrieve Rickon is the perfect way to deflect attention away from Jon, get Davos out of the picture for the time being while still making it possible to join forces with Stannis to overthrow the Boltons, while simultaneously getting another another Stark back.

Although it might feel like an overly elaborate plot, I must say that, the more I think about it, the more the Grand Northern Conspiracy is growing on me. It connects so many random dots, big and small, and explains so much about the exact intentions of the Northern bannerman that it almost seems impossible not to be true at this point.

I also feel like people are underestimating just how ruthless the North can be if necessary: everyone keeps harping on about the North's honour, while ignoring Kings in the North like Brandon Ice-Eyes (who hung slavers' entrails from a Weirwood tree), the fact that we've received hints that the North made human sacrifices to the Old Gods in the past (of course, it's totally wrong if Melisandre burns people to death for the Lord of Light, but cool if our loveable Northmen slit a guy's throat) or Wyman Manderly baking Freys into a pie and fucking eating them. The North is not necessarily honourable: it is a cold and harsh place and can be just as merciless as the South if they feel slighted. Right now, the North has a tremendous score to settle with the Lannisters and, the worse it gets, the more determined the Northmen themselves become (just like how the Brotherhood without Banners gradually devolved into a bunch of vigilantes).

If you keep that in mind, it seems likely that the Northern bannerman could give two shits about the Night's Watch (weakened, made up of criminals and ineffective) or Jon's personal sense of honour: they want vengeance, they want a Stark back in Winterfell and after everything they've suffered from southern politics lately, they want to free themselves forever from the whims of the Iron Throne. It's the dragons they bowed to and it would take another dragon to subjugate them again. And even if the Others should emerge soon, many will still consider Jon far more useful as a king, uniting the North, than Lord Commander of less than a thousand crows.

Does that mean that the North is truly willing to stab Stannis in the back after everything he's just done for them? No, I don't think so. I believe that, if they're rid of the Boltons and have a King in the North again, the North is more than willing to support Stannis in his bid for the Iron Throne: they'll have a King in the South that is beholden to the Northern cause and they'll get to kill more Lannisters and Freys together. But they will not kneel before Stannis or accept his Red God... And should they decide on this course, then Stannis will be powerless to do anything about it... And I really fear that, rather than taking the sensible option and accept Northern independence in exchange for their aid, Stannis will consider them traitours. I fear Stannis will break before he bends and a Northern secession may be what breaks him.

[C0bR]

Also because, even if Manderly prefers a legitimised Jon to become the new King in the North (which is a very sensible opinion), Rickon is still extremely valuable: the Stark line is almost extinct at this point and if something were to happen to Jon (like, ahem, potentially dying in battle in the North's continued struggle for independence, perhaps?), then Rickon is about the only hope they have left for a Stark figure to unite the North, even if he's only a child. Sending Davos away to retrieve Rickon is the perfect way to deflect attention away from Jon, get Davos out of the picture for the time being while still making it possible to join forces with Stannis to overthrow the Boltons, while simultaneously getting another another Stark back.

Although it might feel like an overly elaborate plot, I must say that, the more I think about it, the more the Grand Northern Conspiracy is growing on me. It connects so many random dots, big and small, and explains so much about the exact intentions of the Northern bannerman that it almost seems impossible not to be true at this point.

I also feel like people are underestimating just how ruthless the North can be if necessary: everyone keeps harping on about the North's honour, while ignoring Kings in the North like Brandon Ice-Eyes (who hung slavers' entrails from a Weirwood tree), the fact that we've received hints that the North made human sacrifices to the Old Gods in the past (of course, it's totally wrong if Melisandre burns people to death for the Lord of Light, but cool if our loveable Northmen slit a guy's throat) or Wyman Manderly baking Freys into a pie and fucking eating them. The North is not necessarily honourable: it is a cold and harsh place and can be just as merciless as the South if they feel slighted. Right now, the North has a tremendous score to settle with the Lannisters and, the worse it gets, the more determined the Northmen themselves become (just like how the Brotherhood without Banners gradually devolved into a bunch of vigilantes).

If you keep that in mind, it seems likely that the Northern bannerman could give two shits about the Night's Watch (weakened, made up of criminals and ineffective) or Jon's personal sense of honour: they want vengeance, they want a Stark back in Winterfell and after everything they've suffered from southern politics lately, they want to free themselves forever from the whims of the Iron Throne. It's the dragons they bowed to and it would take another dragon to subjugate them again. And even if the Others should emerge soon, many will still consider Jon far more useful as a king, uniting the North, than Lord Commander of less than a thousand crows.

Does that mean that the North is truly willing to stab Stannis in the back after everything he's just done for them? No, I don't think so. I believe that, if they're rid of the Boltons and have a King in the North again, the North is more than willing to support Stannis in his bid for the Iron Throne: they'll have a King in the South that is beholden to the Northern cause and they'll get to kill more Lannisters and Freys together. But they will not kneel before Stannis or accept his Red God... And should they decide on this course, then Stannis will be powerless to do anything about it... And I really fear that, rather than taking the sensible option and accept Northern independence in exchange for their aid, Stannis will consider them traitours. I fear Stannis will break before he bends and a Northern secession may be what breaks him.

Yeah, I forgot to mention that Rickon would still basically be Jon's heir for a timebeing with Bran playing a tree. It's important to have a heir.

I agree wholeheartedly with the last paragraph. The North will not go against Stannis unless he goes against them and they share many of their goals. Stannis can't go against the North even if Massey pulls a miracle and really brings him those 20k sellswords, they are his only possible allies. Even then, he said so many times in the past that he will not accept northern separation and that anyone resisting him is a traitor, that I have no idea what he will do. But with Mel drifting away from him, he seems powerless against the northmen.

[Caelestis]

Yeah, I forgot to mention that Rickon would still basically be Jon's heir for a timebeing with Bran playing a tree. It's important to have a heir.

I agree wholeheartedly with the last paragraph. The North will not go against Stannis unless he goes against them and they share many of their goals. Stannis can't go against the North even if Massey pulls a miracle and really brings him those 20k sellswords, they are his only possible allies. Even then, he said so many times in the past that he will not accept northern separation and that anyone resisting him is a traitor, that I have no idea what he will do. But with Mel drifting away from him, he seems powerless against the northmen.

I think the presence of Rickon will actually make Jon a bit more willing to accept the crown that the North intends to offer him: if Jon becomes King in the North, but declares Rickon his heir, he will honour both Robb's wishes and that of his bannermen without cheating Rickon of his inheritance. Rickon can continue the Stark line, but Jon will take command for the time being like everyone wants. Any children that Jon may have won't feel slighted with this arrangement, because I suspect Jon will marry Val to unite the North with the Wildlings and the Wildlings value strength over inheritance laws: if they want the crown, then Jon's half-Wildling children will have to earn it, even in the eyes of the Free Folk themselves. And, should Rickon for some reason prove himself to be an incapable ruler, then the North has Jon's children with Val to turn to. It's the ideal arrangement for everyone involved - except from Stannis' perspective, who believes he has the right to Seven Kingdoms, not six.

And yes, that is exactly my point: no matter what Stannis does, he simply lacks the forces to do anything but accept the North's terms, which he'll undoubtedly loathe. I fear that Stannis, in his desperation, will try something reckless, like trying to kill Jon, and essentially self-destructing. Fittingly, Melisandre will be his last hope: once she realises that Jon is Azor Ahai, Stannis' betrayal is complete.

EDIT: Also, I nearly forgot to mention that there are real world parallels with the Grand Northern Conspiracy too, which have further convinced me that this is what GRRM was inspired by and is indeed the route he is taking with Jon: there are quite a few similarities between the North and Scotland and (having watched a documentary on Scottish history recently) I realised that the Grand Northern Conspiracy definitely resembles a great plot by the bishops of Scotland to crown Robert the Bruce their new king (after the death of freedom-fighter William Wallace and the ineptitude of their previous ruler John Balliol). This plot required the bishops and other lords to move in enormous secrecy before they could declare their true intentions and continue their battle for an independent Scotland. Given that the Black Dinner (another episode from Scottish history) formed the direct inspiration for the Red Wedding, the Grand Northern Conspiracy suddenly seems even more plausible...

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I really like this theory, especially because it seemed to be the missing piece to a bunch of my other theories. I do think will be what sends Stannis over the edge, and makes a unified north for defending against the Others.