ASOIAF Mafia 47.5 - Holiday Massacre!

[Crusader]

I'm here again. Let me read thread first

[KilGrey]

Not going to vote for anybody, Kilgrey?

Crap sorry. All that work and I forgot to vote. I'm torn between WJ and Harpy, however between the lurking, the way she defended Gert and the other things I posted I'm going to

##vote: Harpy

Also, thanks for your patience and letting me get that all out.

eta: with that I'm going to bed as I've been looking at this thread since I got online early this after noon. :sleep:

[Shadowbaby]

I'm here again. Let me read thread first

Great. Read the thread! Then I encourage you to share your thoughts. I'd really love to hear them.

[Whiskeyjack]

I don't like the case on Daed. I really don't see him being scum esepcially for the reasons given.

His death is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point. I'm not going to spend time arguing with you about it. We'll find out who's right soon enough.

Whoa..that's a bit premature I think. I'm not ready to clear anyone from any role at this point in the game (especially the point in which you made this comment). So he misread something, that could have been intentional and you played right into it.

I acknowledged earlier in the game that he could be running a clever con on us. But I seriously doubt it.

1) I don't think a brand new player would think of a plan like that.

2) He wouldn't have been assured that anybody else would have noticed the change in the rules and cleared him based on it.

I'm going to assume this is just because he asked a random question and you are being funny and you don't really think lynching people new to the boards is a good way to nail scum.

Obviously.

A bulletproof SK is pretty par for course in my experience. Just because he can't be night killed doesn't mean that wont damn him all the same. SK is a difficult role and needs extras like that to be balanced do to him having the worst odds of winning. If the mafia try to kill him and the kill bounces, I'd assume they'd be hot on making a case to get him lynched. We as town still have a good shot of nailing him too if we had a vig and by analysing game play.

Who cares? How is this a point against me? Yeah, the SK is a hard role. I still don't think he should be able to kill every night. 2 kills per night (one from the SK and one from the FM) would be too difficult for the innocents to overcome.

...this strikes me entirely wrong. It feels like you are setting up to be around the next day so no one may question why a good player was let to live. In fact, it's not the last time you do it. You did it AGAIN after the lynch for the day.

....

I know what it's like to die night 1 all the time. I also know what it's like to be viewed as a decent player and gets suspicion cast on them the longer they live in a game. It sucks don't it? It'd be nice to have a cover story of the doc protecting them every night would it? I can't get over the fact it feels like you are doing exactly this here. If not, it's selfish as hell and if you are town I sure hope you are a major power role and not snipping the protects just because you don't want to die. That's hardly in the towns best interest.

Okay, we can both agree that you don't know much about our community. Right? Suffice it to say, you're kind of in over your head on this particular argument.

Let's just say I'm 'selfish as hell' and I strongly believe keeping me alive is in the innocents' best interests. Because I'm the best player in the game, and I'm going to find the evil players. So I should be healed. End of story.

[Daedalus V2.0]

Harpy and Halo then. Harpy's being opportunistic? Has she? Really? Uhh, I must not have been reading too closely then. I'm afraid you'd have to show me these little moments of opportunism that I missed. Would also love to see what you've got against Halo. You say his mass-reveal thing seems self-serving, but me and Lany supported that as well. I don't really see any harm in it at all, though now that we know the baddies have holidays as well, I suppose that was just a grand waste of time. Has Halo done anything else suspicious? I'd find opportunism a much greater sin than being in favor of a mass-reveal myself.

You've also mentioned that you think WJ might be the SK. Why?

You mention your thoughts, and I appreciate that. It's nice to know your opinion. Now I'd like to ask why you think what you do.

Re Harpy: Well, I was going to say "Screw you, I'm tired, strapped for time and doomed beyond my control anyways", but as luck would have it Kilgrey has summed up my reasons for calling her opportunistic nicely. She switches votes at a moment's notice with little reasoning, always after someone else has already pointed out a reason to vote for that person. Her timing in voting for Gert was also highly suspect (IMO). Really, I'm not too sure why I voted for Halo back then in retrospect. He was my top suspect, but I don't much remember why. Anymore, I'm more suspiscious of Harpy than Halo.

I'm going to Remove Vote for now. If I'm still alive in the morning, I'll decide which case I like most. For now, I have but one thing to say:

Someone finally understands my reasoning and doesn't just blindly follow WJ! Hallelujah!

Edited due to Olde Englishe creeping into my dialogue. Stupid Shakespeare.

[Shadowbaby]

Someone finally understands my reasoning and doesn't just blindly follow WJ! Hallelujah!

I'm not blindly following WJ. I'm blindly following my vibes, which is possibly much worse.

I figure there's no need to draw this day out any longer, so fare thee well Daed. ...This doesn't mean I'm not waiting in eager anticipation your thoughts, Crusader. I still am. Please don't make me wait much longer.

[Piper of Chaos]

Just checking the thread. I see not that much happened, but Kilgrey finally entered the game. Her (?) posts are promising, but of course she lacks the knowledge about our community (which makes me wonder why she doesn't suspect me ). I could defend WJ a bit here, but he's a big boy after all and so......

Kilgrey, I see you share my opininon about Thio. And Harpy is far from being lynched. So why not moving your vote on a mob that has at least a slight chance?

ETA: looks like the chances of my mob have also come down to zero in the meanwhile

[House Dondarrion]

It is day 2.

14 players remain: Crusader, Daedalus, Filter, Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Lany, Piper of Chaos, Ser Spider, Shadowbaby, Thiocyanide, Whiskeyjack, a homeless harpy.

8 votes are needed for a conviction or 7 to go to night.

8 votes for Daedalus (Halo, Filter, Whiskeyjack, Kat, Thiocyanide, Ser Spider, Lany, Shadowbaby)

2 votes for Thiocyanide (Piper of Chaos, a homeless harpy)

1 vote for a homeless harpy (Kilgrey)

1 vote for Night (Crusader)

2 players have not voted: Daedalus, JKMan

"OK," says Kiwi, "I have got a plan. Just trust me... It's fool proof."

"Um, I'm a dead president. I'm a leader; I follow nobody. I say we de-pants the Worker of Labor Day and see if he has a shamrock on his butt."

"De-pants?" says Haloween, "Isn't that kind of harsh? Why don't we just kill him first and look for the shamrock then?"

"Works for me," says the New Years.

"No," says Yom Kippur. "I don't like the Queen." Lets look under her royal robes instead?"

"Everyone knows that turkeys drink green beer," says Kwanza. "Let's look at his drumstick."

But a consensus is made and Labor Day is chosen. The Matron pulls out her knitting needles and stabs the Worker through the heart.

SPOILER: spoiler

Labor Day's Representative falls to the floor daed. Ramadan bends over the body and pull off the Worker's overalls. Sure enough, there on his ass is the shamrock tattoo.

"Holy Shit!" says Santa. "Two leprecauns in a row!"

Daedalus is dead. He was guilty

It is night... you have 10 hours, but you don't have to use them all. Send in your Night Actions.

[Thiocyanide]

Holy shit.

Wow.

That's just...

[Piper of Chaos]

Holy shit.

Wow.

That's just...

....logic?

[Whiskeyjack]

Daedalus is dead. He is guilty.

[Thiocyanide]

....logic?

Well, yes.

Still, two FM lynches in a row is quite something. But tonight's kill results will confirm, or possibly deny, my suspicions.

[Whiskeyjack]

Quite confused by a contradiction in Ser Spider's posts.

And, of course, you are entitled to suspect me, but your case, although fine, and loved by you, makes me look stupid if indeed I'm an FM. I hate underestimation for the sake of newbness...me not following your lynch like the other n00bs, is it really that suspicious? I'm just saying, I learned that it's sometimes necessary to lynch your partner ( I saw you play in 46.5), and my actions are not subtle enough for FM Spider...not sure that means anything to you, b/c that is only based on my estimations...never played a FM. But I think that I've proven to be more of a logical player rather than a gut-based one.

Okay, so you're basically saying that you'd have to be a pretty stupid FM to vote for Shadowbaby instead of Gertrude, right?

And yet.....

Who do you suspect right now?

Daedalus - It would be great to lynch two FM in a row...and that's the only thing that speaks in his favour, since he is an obvious lynch today. Overdefending himself, like she did with Gert...not rock-solid evidence, but IMO the best lynch today. If we don't lynch him, we learned almost nothing from lynching Gert, except that she was a killer (actually, I learned nothing. You suspect me and some others).

So wait. Daedalus was your top suspect? Isn't that a contradiction?

When you defend yourself, you claim that you'd have to be an idiot to vote for Shadow over your own FM partner. Yet, at the same time, you're willing to lynch somebody based partly on the theory that he defended his own FM partner?

For the record, when I asked who you suspected, I was laying a trap. Wanted to see if you would go after the easy suspect...in spite of the fact that doing so would necessarily contradict your own defense of yourself. You kind of walked right into it....

I'm really not certain what to make of it. It shows that you are willing to say one thing to defend yourself, and the complete opposite to attack another player. It's extremely opportunistic. Now that we know Daedalus was guilty.....if you were evil, you'd either have to be a FM looking for any excuse to cut ties with your partner, or the SK. To be honest, I think either one might make sense.

[Whiskeyjack]

Going to re-read the thread to see who Daedalus and Gertrude tried to get lynched early in the game, prior to the period when they became top suspects. Might help us drop a few players down the suspect list.

[Whiskeyjack]

Okay, didn't find much of use other than Daedalus going after Shadowbaby a lot. I think it's probably enough to clear her from being FM. She could obviously still be the SK, but I don't think she's aligned with St. Patrick.

[Thiocyanide]

Crap. I'd like to stay up for the night results, but my eyes... My eyes say no!

[Whiskeyjack]

Want to take a look at the 2 mobs, in an attempt to find the last FM/symp.

7 votes for Gertrude (Kat, Shadowbaby, Whiskeyjack, Thiocyanide, a homeless harpy, Lany, JKMan)

3 votes for Shadowbaby (Piper of Chaos, Daedalus, Ser Spider)

1 vote for JKMan (Halo)

1 vote for Whiskeyjack (Crusader)

4 players have not voted: Filter, Gertrude, Kilgrey, Weekapaug.

8 votes for Daedalus (Halo, Filter, Whiskeyjack, Kat, Thiocyanide, Ser Spider, Lany, Shadowbaby)

2 votes for Thiocyanide (Piper of Chaos, a homeless harpy)

1 vote for a homeless harpy (Kilgrey)

1 vote for Night (Crusader)

2 players have not voted: Daedalus, JKMan

First question - could any of the players left in the game be a symp?

Assumption - the symp would never vote for his FM masters. So, has any player failed to join either of the first 2 lynch mobs?

Yes --> Piper, Crusader, Kilgrey

Conclusion - if we have a living symp, it's one of Piper, Crusader, or Kilgrey.

Second question - who doesn't fit as a potential FM partner?

1) I think the following people are not FM, based on their behavior thus far in the game --> Lany, Thio, Kat

2) I think the following person is not FM, based on Daedalus trying to get her lynched early in the game --> Shadowbaby

Conclusion - I don't think any of Lany, Thio, Shadowbaby, or Kat are FM.

Third question - who does fit as a potential FM partner?

Pretty much everyone else --> Harpy, JKMan, Filter, Halo, Crusader, Kilgrey, Piper, Ser Spider

Harpy and JKMan - They both voted for Gert, but both votes came at a time where a partner might have wanted to cast a vote for distance. They also both claimed to be suspicious of Daedalus, but never voted for him.

Filter - Never voted for Gert, but said he was leaning toward doing it before the mods ended the day early. Could have been an attempt at distance. He voted for Daedalus early on day 2....but Daedalus was under a lot of suspicion at that point. Also could have been an attempt to create distance.

Halo - Defended Gert. He voted for Daedalus early on day 2....but Daedalus was under a lot of suspicion at that point, so it could have been an attempt to create distance.

Crusader - Ignored both of the mobs. Really don't have any information on him, which is kind of scary.

Kilgrey - Ignored the mob on Gert, mainly because she wasn't playing yet. Defended Daedalus at a point where he was almost certain to be lynched. Fits more as a potential symp than a FM.

Piper - He pretty much ignored the Gert mob. He claimed to be suspicious of Daedalus, but never voted for him.

Ser Spider - He claimed to be suspicious of Gert, but voted for Shadowbaby instead. He voted for Daedalus late...could have been an attempt to create distance.

After summing everyone up, and then adding in the other miscellaneous suspicions I have that I have mentioned throughout the thread, I think I'd rate my suspects for FM/Symp as follows -

Tier 1 - Harpy, Ser Spider, JKMan

Tier 2 - Filter, Halo, Crusader

Tier 3 - Kilgrey, Piper

For the SK....I still think Lany and Thio are innocent. But Kat and Shadowbaby would have to be added back into the suspect list. I guess my complete FM/symp/SK suspect rankings are -

Tier 1 - Harpy, Ser Spider, JKMan

Tier 2 - Filter, Halo, Crusader, Shadowbaby

Tier 3 - Kilgrey, Piper, Kat

[Whiskeyjack]

Regarding the SK - I think it's somebody who is encouraging and/or participating in the lynch mobs.

These are the people I think we need to keep a close eye on, in our search for the SK:

Harpy - voted for Gert and encouraged mob on Daedalus

Filter - encouraged mob on Gert and voted for Daedalus

Ser Spider - encouraged mob on Gert and voted for Daedalus

JKMan - voted for Gert and encouraged mob on Daedalus

Shadowbaby - voted for both Gert and Daedalus

Kat also voted for both Gert and Daedalus....I could see her maybe being the SK, but at the same time, I just don't suspect her very much based on her general behavior in the game. I definitely rank her behind the 5 people listed above on my SK suspect list.

[Ser Spidey]

Quite confused by a contradiction in Ser Spider's posts.

Okay, so you're basically saying that you'd have to be a pretty stupid FM to vote for Shadowbaby instead of Gertrude, right?

And yet.....

So wait. Daedalus was your top suspect? Isn't that a contradiction?

When you defend yourself, you claim that you'd have to be an idiot to vote for Shadow over your own FM partner. Yet, at the same time, you're willing to lynch somebody based partly on the theory that he defended his own FM partner?

For the record, when I asked who you suspected, I was laying a trap. Wanted to see if you would go after the easy suspect...in spite of the fact that doing so would necessarily contradict your own defense of yourself. You kind of walked right into it....

I'm really not certain what to make of it. It shows that you are willing to say one thing to defend yourself, and the complete opposite to attack another player. It's extremely opportunistic. Now that we know Daedalus was guilty.....if you were evil, you'd either have to be a FM looking for any excuse to cut ties with your partner, or the SK. To be honest, I think either one might make sense.

I don't like the trap. It's like a double-edged sword. I didn't stand a chance. If I decided not to suspect Daed, you could turn it back on me even more easily.

But then again, let me explain: No, Daed was not my top suspect, just one of my suspects. However, I felt that he was the one with best chances of getting lynched, and, of course, a pretty obvious lynch after Gert's CF result. Thus, he was the one I laid my vote on.

And no, I'm not calling him an idiot (although he also gave up too easily), because the situation was different. If he voted Gert after defending her, it would have been even more suspicious IMO. If I voted Gert instead of Shabba, I would have gotten away with it. He had no choice but to stick on Shabba. I had, and I chose to stick on her. I would have been a truly stupid FM to do so, if I had a perfectly unnoticable option (voting for inevitable Gert lynch, later on) opened.

Overdefending, Lany? Maybe. But I won't hide my fear. 1st tier of WJ's list isn't exactly the most comfortable place in the world. And if he places his vote on me, a few others will fly out of nowhere as well. As much as I respect WJ as a player, I don't like the way some people suck up to him. to Kilgrey for pointing it out, and also for calling him selfish.

[Ser Spidey]

Ser Spider:

So you have no comment on the discussion going on and just want to keep your vote one someone new?

There is something about the way Ser Spider just pops in to make a couple quick comments then disappears again that bothers me. It's like he pops up just about when you've forgotten he's playing then disappears from the radar again.

It would be unwise of the FMs to leave the SK out there. The SK can just as easily kill FMs as they can townies. Unless know who it is an they are sure they can manipulate him away from their people, they'd be trying like hell to get him lynched imo.

Ser Spider has continued in this vein, popping in and making comments on already existing cases and then disappearing.

My vote on someone new is a vote on a guy who shares a desk with me in school. I wanted him to participate.

FTR, I never go missing for more than 10 hours. At least I think so. And I'm not a very good case-maker, but I promise to do some in the future. But do you really find a post or two without a real content that suspicious? I made the posts you quoted during a busy evening on the thread. Like 6 people were here, and I was just replying to them.

And besides 'disappearing', I'm not under the radar. I don't think I've been playing a safe game so far, because you're not the first person to suspect me, and I've stated my opinion almost about everything.