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ASOIAF Mafia 47.5 - Holiday Massacre!


Mexal

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Not the best idea...

All, I may say about myself is that I'm innoncent and I'm sorry adout my low activity. But, right now I just may agree with Piper of Chaos in his conclusions about Thiocyanide. It seems very suspiciously to me that Piper looks after him so carefully, may be he knows smth about him, but I could not find what does he have except his attentiveness

Right now i'm going to vote for night

Seeing as this is a CF game with two evil factions, one of which is a lone,m bulletproof person, why would you vote for night? There's literally no benefit to not lynching - I'd rather see you vote for me than for night.

I have to say this makes me rather suspicious.

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It is day 2.

14 players remain: Crusader, Daedalus, Filter, Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Lany, Piper of Chaos, Ser Spider, Shadowbaby, Thiocyanide, Whiskeyjack, a homeless harpy.

8 votes are needed for a conviction or 7 to go to night.

4 votes for Daedalus (Halo, Filter, Whiskeyjack, Kat)

2 votes for Thiocyanide (Piper of Chaos, a homeless harpy)

1 vote for Night (Crusader)

7 players have not voted: Daedalus, JKMan, Kilgrey, Lany, Ser Spider, Shadowbaby, Thiocyanide.

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Attn: WJ and Thiocyanide

You both brought things up earlier today and listed secret reasoning as part of your argument.

I want to know what WJ's secret extra reason for voting for Daedalus is, because I'm curious. But even if you don't share, I'll trust you.

I want to know why Thiocyanide thinks what night the SK kills on makes a difference, because I'm deathly curious as to this rock-solid logic. I wondered about it all night. :D

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I want to know why Thiocyanide thinks what night the SK kills on makes a difference, because I'm deathly curious as to this rock-solid logic. I wondered about it all night. :D

Because if the SK kills on odds, the healer and the guard were right, and can keep doing what they're doing. If he kills on evens, the fun is just starting, so to speak.

Tomorrow, I'll be explaining my reasoning past that. I'm not sure if that'll sate your appetite for information, but right now that's all I can give you.

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Oh. I was expecting something a bit more groundbreaking than that. Fair enough. :P

Granted, some of my argument is based on:

-If Daedalus come out as guilty or innocent on the CF

-Who gets killed, if anybody, tonight

I'm interested to see what happens, because past Daedalus, Shadow, and possibly Harpy, I'm not really sure who I suspect right now.

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Okay, I see you defending yourself a lot. And I saw you label a few players as PI. But I haven't seen a new suspect list from you yet. Who do you suspect right now?

Halo - His pushing everyone to reveal their holidays still seems opportunistic to me.

Shadowbaby - the reasons why I suspected her still haven't changed, although I guess that Gert's guilt speaks in her favour. Anyway, to explain, after seeing her tremendous play in the last game, I really really wonder what is she doing in this one...

Daedalus - It would be great to lynch two FM in a row...and that's the only thing that speaks in his favour, since he is an obvious lynch today. Overdefending himself, like she did with Gert...not rock-solid evidence, but IMO the best lynch today. If we don't lynch him, we learned almost nothing from lynching Gert, except that she was a killer (actually, I learned nothing. You suspect me and some others).

Crusader - Voting for night?

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I've reread Filter, and if you take out the Piper confusion there isn't a lot to base a case on. Several of his comments were well reasoned and I think I am going to drop him off of tier 1. He's one I am just not sure of.

That leaves me with Dead and Ser Spider. Both are in my opinion over reacting, but I do not think they are partners. I think Ser Spider was partnered with Gert and Dead as the SK. I am using most supposition on that.

I have a few too many likely innocnets I think, and still too many that I am just not sure of. I would vote for either Dead or Ser Spider today. Dead is up to 6 votes and only needs 2 more, so unless we are sure there isn't more to be gleaned from this day, I will hold off the vote.

my likely innocnets are:

WJ,

Harpy

Shadowbaby

Halo

unsure of, put not real suspicious of:

Kat

Thio

the rest, I have no clue about

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One thing is irritating me: Gert made not a real effort to get her head out of the noose. That's why I think that she had already given up, knowing that it's almost impossible to win a battle against WJ. If that's the case, she also had her partners instructed to join the mob on her. In the light of this the following events are interesting:

- post 411: WJ states that people who have been defending Gert are suspcious and votes Gert

- post 413: WJ answers to Week, saying that this issue is very important

- post 416: Thio removes his vote from Crusader

- post 419: votes for Gert:

Sounds fishy. This post is as general as possible, he doesn't quite follow WJ's logic, but it is enough to put the fourth vote on Gert.

- post 421: another fishy post by Thio where he tries to shift the attention away from those players that WJ had linked with Gert.

- in the meanwhile, Week is questioning Thio about his motives. Thio clears the matter in post 425. I will go into further details soon.

- post 424: Gert returns and is not a bit concerned about WJ pushing for her lynch

It's possible that Gert returned, saw what was going on and her veteran experience told her that WJ wouldn't let go off her. She instructed Thio to hop on her mob ASAP to look innocent afterwards.

That's why my vote is on Thiocyanide.

This is an excellent point! And the way he was going for Piper after i voted her was a little strange. I didn't know he/she was kidding, but he wanted to get people to vote for her. Coincidence? I don't think so.

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My primary suspects are: Thio and Daed.

Great! Can we find out why?

ETA:

This is an excellent point! And the way he was going for Piper after i voted her was a little strange. I didn't know he/she was kidding, but he wanted to get people to vote for her. Coincidence? I don't think so.

I'm not sure what you mean by what I bolded there.

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Anyway, my vote is going back on Daedalus. I think the case against him is the strongest one we have right now. And his defense posts haven't been enough to convince me to look elsewhere today.

1) He defended Gert. Could be the act of a panicked FM partner.

2) He voted for Shadowbaby, citing reasons that were similar to the case on Gert (which he had labeled as being 'stupid'). Contradictions are bad.

3) He is inexplicably nervous about Halo's holiday theory. He's over-defending himself. I don't have a problem with people who are thorough in their defense against a valid point. But against a wacky theory like that? Strikes me as being very suspicious.

These are the reasons for Daed. I don't have anything more to add.

Edit spelling.

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I'm not sure what you mean by what I bolded there.

Well it just seems to me that you were trying to make a lot of mess. I think that an evil person would try to make a lot of mess so some, apparently, innocent person gets lynched.

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Well it just seems to me that you were trying to make a lot of mess. I think that an evil person would try to make a lot of mess so some, apparently, innocent person gets lynched.

That clarified it.

One problem: Gertrude was guilty, as I and several others thought she was. I don't see how me 'making a mess' to get an FM lynched is a bad thing.

Not that I agree with you about said mess-making, though.

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