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Wild Bill

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About Wild Bill

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    State Machine

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  1. Wild Bill

    Why do people hate Sansa?

    One thought is that after Ned's death, Cercei "pushed the right buttons" to show she cared about Sansa, and that she was a good girl, and was destined for "what she dreamed about" - albeit in a rather abused circumstance. Joffery was the bad cop and Cercei the good cop, and Sansa needed some support. Not to mention some, no doubt, guilt, that Sansa had for the circumstances leading to Lady's death...
  2. Wild Bill

    What will Iron Bank do if NW doesn't pay debts?

    Well, this thread is hotting up! Lots of bits that are interesting and informative. My post started this renewal, or your post in response started it - whatever... And the wheel turns and turns... Exactly so. I've found, from my brief experience in the fandom, that relying on book quotes is either a sign of great strength or of great weakness (in an argument) ... Using book quotes to defend something - I'm not even sure what is the point - it is not working in this case. Meanwhile, the (hamster-wise) viewpoint that, per OP, that NW might have some problems repaying their debt to IB. And further IB might have some "concerns" about getting their money back from loans to the IT is cogent, and that IB might look at alternatives to get their due... Whatever, cheers, etc...
  3. Wild Bill

    What will Iron Bank do if NW doesn't pay debts?

    The only tangible thing I see in in recent posts is the notion that NW might not be able to repay their loan... And with prior posts that the IB, never, ever, loses money. Rephrasing myself from up-thread... Yet IB was very willing to offer terms to the NW... Why does IB extend a loan that, on its face, will never be repayed? Because they are faced with the Lannisters defaulting, and the lose of $$$$, but separate investments in NW and Stannis might reduce their loses to $$ - this is how the Medici operated 600 years ago and how modern financiers operate now. Things are bad - cut your loses. Hells, bells, if you're lucky you might actually profit after all. but otherwise you cut your loses and move on... Cheers,
  4. Wild Bill

    What will Iron Bank do if NW doesn't pay debts?

    I'm sorry to say that over-draft fees and such might not stop the Others. A minimum balance fee might be a problem for the Others, though we don't know enough about their finances to be sure..,
  5. Wild Bill

    What will Iron Bank do if NW doesn't pay debts?

    I agree completely. And any notions of banking are not needed, or expected, to appreciate ASOIAF. My precision is mostly related to OP, who brings up banking. I contend that bankers hedge their bets and are willing to lose money as a result. You seem to say that IB would never, ever, lose money in any circumstance. We agree to disagree. As an aside, the best-seller lists of non-fiction books (In the US) have been dominated for decades with the theme of "how to run a successful company". Like that might be difficult? Hmm, I wonder what is the likelihood of IB to be perfect compared to our super-sophisticated modern enterprises? To rephrase, this is a totally tangential topic and has small importance on the books as a whole. But is interesting to explore...
  6. Wild Bill

    What will Iron Bank do if NW doesn't pay debts?

    Really? I must have missed that... Though - you mention that using Wildlings to re-inhabit the Gift will invigorate the ecomonics of the area. Nice Assuming they live through the Long Night and such...
  7. Wild Bill

    What will Iron Bank do if NW doesn't pay debts?

    I don't disagree. I'm really not sure what GRRM has in mind, other than the little sub-plot does have a solution for the NW to make sure they have some food for the long winter - since it has been emphasized that they do not (because of Stannis's presence, and the feeding of his horde, and of feeding the Wildlings). Considering economics in isolation vs GRRM's writing. It is not something he dwells on. But since he seems to have mined European history, amongst other histories so much - for him to have neglected to have included the various bankruptcies, and the influence of the Fuggers or Medici, would be odd. We don't know if the Lannisters will go bankrupt and take a Fugger (or IB) down with them - a real risk for them. But we can guess that IB hedging is important, and btw, a minuscule risk with the NW is another hedge. I do take exception to the notion that the IB would never write something off - of course they would, that is the way of banking from its infancy to now - some losses are inevitable, and better to "cut your losses". (quoted and underscored to emphasize that the IB would not be the IB without doing that... ;)) Anyway, I don't think the loan is material to the overall story - Jon gets to feed the NW. The reader moves on, not particularly caring, other than our wall-heroes won't have to eat their boots.
  8. Wild Bill

    What will Iron Bank do if NW doesn't pay debts?

    Hmm, thread seems to have died. Pity... To rephrase an earlier response of mine, the IB did not make a loan to the NW as a profit maker, but as an hedge. They are worried that Westeros will go to hell (profit-wise) if the entire continent is depopulated. So, they see the NW as an important bit that might protect their investment(s), even if they lose money on their specific loan to the NW. Meanwhile, speculatively, Jon (no great high-stakes, uber negotiator) cuts a deal with IB very easily where he gets the wherewithal to sustain the NW for some time. Jon's worry about it being "fishy" is simply of being a newbie and worrying that he's made a bad deal in the long run, or that he has misinterpreted the context of the deal (basically the same thing). Which he might of done, or not, from the perspective of NW finances. Machts nix.
  9. Wild Bill

    What will Iron Bank do if NW doesn't pay debts?

    I'm not sure what your on against. I haven't seen "character motivation" mentioned in-thread thus far...
  10. Wild Bill

    What will Iron Bank do if NW doesn't pay debts?

    This is not a post with authoritative banking information, but more along the lines of some general knowledge. Banks and other high finance institutions (not to mention bookies) try to "hedge" their positionsbets by laying off risk where they can. They are willing to waste some money on losing causes since they look at every angle of the risks they face with their loans. Hedge is analogous with insurance. They are paying out money just in case something bad happens one way, so that they, at least, get something back another way. I can imagine IB investing in Stannis, hedging that if the Lannisters default, Stannis might come through with some income for them - not necessarily what they are owed by the Lannisters, but, more than their investment in Stannis, and more than the Lannisters would seem likely to pay (at the moment zero). If the Lannisters pay up in the end run, then they lost a bit on their hedge. The loan to the NW is a bit shadier - only because we don't get details. It's easy to imagine that the IB Factor is given details by Jon about the existential risk that exists in Westeros. Which, of course, is preposterous on its face, but a minor investment to hedge against it is not a big deal. I'm guessing that the monies loaned to NW are trivial from IB standards. What if NW default? The IB is, meanwhile looking for other hedges. The Martels? The Iron Born? The White Walkers... Or even Dany. There is no mention of finances in regards to Dany's needs for fleets, troops, etc. Odd...
  11. Wild Bill

    [SPOILERS thru S7] Where did the show go wrong?

    I should say that I enjoyed season seven much more than season six. No doubt, because, I expected dreck, so I was able to accept whatever happened and enjoy all of the reunions. Bullocks, who cares?
  12. Wild Bill

    [SPOILERS thru S7] Where did the show go wrong?

    Nice bit of cross posting here. I especially like your notion that D&D strolled through the first four seasons, and then *horror*, realized there was a problem. Edit: I think the amount of grrm's material already was too much for a strict adaptation, so his lack of productivity in recent years is not really relevant. So, the notion of a loose adaptation of the books is totally on point.
  13. Wild Bill

    [SPOILERS thru S7] Where did the show go wrong?

    Subjective... A nice word that I seemed to have forgotten. My thesis has been that that the show has not been properly planned, so that late in the series there are flaws, very significant flaws, that might have been avoided (at least somewhat). Ruin the show... No... But an adaptation was required to adjust to the "new show" which shouldn't have been necessary.
  14. Wild Bill

    [SPOILERS thru S7] Where did the show go wrong?

    I'm not sure if popularity is an "objective" measure of... an aesthetic or book-reader or general critique about the show (positive or negative). Though it is an objective measure of economic success, assuming popularity = $$. You may well be right about OP in the end run. But, I'll posit that a long running, narrative, TV show should have start-to-finish consistency. The general look and feel and episode pacing, of immersion in the "world", having consistent "constraints" like character travel time when going to and fro, etc. I am speaking here of the overall show, and from an analytical viewpoint, not of whether I enjoy it or not, or as a book reader whether I think the adaptation is correct, or whether I think the writers/actors/directors, etc. did a good job. I think the show fails (by non-economic and non-popularity standards) because of a general inconsistency. The first four seasons are totally consistent. The fifth season varies a bit compared to the prior four season. The sixth and seventh seasons are not recognizable as being part of the same show, from a consistency standpoint. OP and others mention several particulars that are results of what I call "bad planning", and Eggegg amplifies that D&D didn't have time to both write, from scratch, new material, and provide "elegance" - ie, the consistency they had provided in the prior seasons. I think the show fails as an adaptation. And that was probably obvious from the beginning of the grrm + d&d relationship, hence my "shame" bit. But, I think with proper planning, the show could have been "consistent" while still being as popular as it is.
  15. Wild Bill

    Why do people hate Sansa?

    Oh my... Moose walkers... I've heard of some Spider walker thingy, but this is much spookier. The army of the undead, with the Meese (proper plural?) looks even more formidable. Add in the four-part massacre, and I begin to understand George's problem - they all have to die, everyone of them. Die! Die! Die! Eat burnt bodies, have necromantcic, incestual sex, perform fratricidal incest. I mean! I mean!... The Hound and Sansa, the sole survivors, in a world akin of "I am Legend" is disturbing. In addition to the rather reduced DNA, there is still the 1/2 ton of garbage to be picked up, due to the legal ramifications where Sansa's unfortunate message to Winterfell was found under the 1/2 ton of garbage, and such... Cheerio, and move on, nothing to see here...
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