Gilbert Green

I don't expect the events of WINDS, with a few exceptions, will have much to do with what happened on HBO. I don't necessarily assume GRRM told D&D all his secrets. If he did keep back a few secrets, GRRM might be reluctant to say so outright for fear of being accused of sabotaging the show or failing to promote the show. I don't suspect he is guilty of such things anyway; but I can see the accusation being made if the books and the show turn out very different. In TV land, the goal is always short-term: a successful next season. Whether, in the process, one writes oneself into a hole one cannot write oneself out of the season after that, is a tertiary concern at best. He is now hinting that the books and the show will turn out very different, but at the same time (and in accordance with his contractual obligations) doing so while casting as few aspersions as possible on the HBO show. At some point the butterfly effect would have caused the show to reach a stage where revealing any secrets would be irrelevant. At this point, I can see GRRM shrugging and keeping his secrets to himself. As far as helping them with the next season, one season at a time, I think he gave them all the help he reasonably could. Meanwhile, GRRM has short-term goals of his own -- which is always the next book in the series. He too may have written himself into corners he has trouble writing himself out of. Of course, he does have the right to change his mind about some things he has told D&D, and no doubt this has happened to some extent. But I suspect it is mainly the butterfly effect is the main factor driving the two storylines apart.

Jon Snow will not go insane. His glamored undead double will. Cregan Karstark.

Only time will tell. But a thought that crossed my mind is that if HotD makes a ton of money and is a huge success, HBO and his publisher both are going to want him to finish F&B part 2.

Don't want to hear it. No. Sorry. I've already heard too much.

With a stiff wind, one can maybe stay reasonably cool while sailing the smoking sea. And a stiff wind is something Euron can summon using blood magic.

Anne Groel posted something in 2014. If anyone has said anything since, I am unaware.

I think I understood what @James Arryn meant by his remark though. I think I have a pretty good idea what not-a-blog posts he referred to. If "hostile" is not the right word, he could have said "weary" and I would still have understand his meaning and its implications. I understood him to be talking in relative terms not absolute ones ("more consistently hostile"). I did not read his remark as an accusation that GRRM was rude and ungracious to book purchasers at book signings. Also, in the context of this WINDS thread, I understood him to be referring to those particular book fans who hold out some vague hope of seeing WINDS some day; and not to those buyers and readers who just love and praise him absolutely and unconditionally. I did not read anything in his remark as an accusation that GRRM was a bad person. Just that he thinks he sees clues that GRRM is no longer treating the main book series as a priority. I think you are word-policing him a bit too hard; and being a bit too hostile yourself with words like "blather". But that's only my opinion. You may know your business, though, and for all I know, maybe you DO speak for GRRM. In your final words, you seem to hint that James Arryn is the kind of bad fan that GRRM is upset at. Which is quite possibly true. Let's lump James Arryn in with poor Gareth, except that James Arryn has been probably been more reasonable and patient than poor Gareth ever was back in 2009. It seems that the concept of "bad fans" extends FAR FAR beyond those extreme cases who were once wishing death on GRRM so that Brandon Sanderson could finish the series. And the bad fan concept keeps expanding. As for me, I am patient. I hold out a vague hope of seeing WINDS at some point before GRRM turns 80, and I intend to read it when it comes out, if i am still alive and healthy. Then I expect him to tinker with the next volume for the next 2 decades after that (but not finish) and I support his right to do so. If he pleasantly surprises me by actually finishing, i will be delighted. But i do think the promise of a continuation is one of the selling points of the series, and the failure to deliver one (within a reasonable time) is a failure of sorts, that will inevitably disappoint and frustrate a significant portion of his customer base, past and future. I understand that "ought implies can" and GRRM may (for all I know) be doing the best he can. But i also know that the customer is human too; that the customer is always right; and that is the customer feels frustrated or disappointed he has the right to those feelings. And i do think GRRM has shown signs of pique (or, if you prefer "weariness") towards these disappointed fans. Maybe that makes me a bad fan too. I have no opinion on whether insulting and abusing such "bad fans" is good marketing policy or not. I leave such questions to the marketing department.

I agree that it weighs on him. But this weight sometimes expresses itself as pique. You can fantasize that this pique is only addressed to the "bad fans" (whoever they are). But it certainly can be a bit hard to tell. "Gareth" was not rude to GRRM in any way shape or form in that infamous Neil Gaiman blog post. But GRRM seemed, at least, to 100% endorse Neil Gaiman's extreme rudeness toward "Gareth". Of course, it could be that GRRM did not really read what Gareth actually wrote. I agree that GRRM is only human. But the fans are human too. Fan frustration, at least for many fans, is the flip side of fan enthusiasm. There is no way for the fans to win. If they think that GRRM could be working harder than he is (which I guess implies that he "is lazy") they are accused of attacking GRRM. If they think that GRRM is working hard, but on the wrong things, such as HBO projects for HBO cash (which I guess implies that he "is greedy"), they are accused of attacking GRRM. If they begin to suspect that GRRM really is doing his best, but just cannot finish in any kind of reasonable time, because he has just gotten too old and/or has writers block and/or has written himself into a corner, they are accused of attacking GRRM. If, 11 years ago, fans had predicted that GRRM would take 12+ years to finish the next book, they would have been accused of attacking GRRM. The "entitled" accusation was also directed - totally without justification - at poor "Gareth". If fans believe that GRRM owes them anything, they are accused of being "entitled". If fans accept that GRRM owes them nothing; begin to suspect that he will give them the nothing he owes them; they are accused of attacking GRRM. I guess the only right kind of fan is the one who believes that GRRM owes them nothing, but has absolute faith that he will give them everything.

This is simply not correct. In October, 2009 he announced on his NAB that he had just passed the 1100 page mark for DANCE. But in January 2010, 3 months later, he submitted a "partial' of 1038 pages. Then in February 2010, he announced on his NAB that he had passed 1205, then 1261 pages. But then in June, 2010, he submits the next "partial" of 1028 pages (down 10 pages from January, probably due to the bumped chapters). Moving on to Winds. In 2012 he tells a Barcelona news conference that he has 200 "more or less finished" pages; and another 200 that are much rougher; and also in 2012 tells a reporter that he is about 25% done, but then in Feb., 2013, submits a "partial" of 168 pages to his editor, which does not include some sample chapters already released publicly in some form. The rule you are talking about does not exist. We know he is talking about partial manuscript submissions, when he says he is talking about partial manuscript submissions. Otherwise, he could be talking merely about pages written, in some less 'finished-finished" sense. I'm happy that he is "about three quarters" done and has about 1100 pages more or less "written" in some sense. No need to twist that into more than it says.

Only when the context so indicates. In effect, you are arguing that when GRRM says he is about three-quarters done, he really means he is MORE than 75% done. You are arguing against the context.

Not entirely. It is based, I think, on things GRRM has actually said in a fit of petulance, in response to those who were rude enough (in his opinion) to suggest he might actually die some day and leave the book unfinished (he hates both topics), and to ask him if he had made any provision for such an eventuality. I did not take such statements seriously, so I feel no interest in digging them up for you.

He says he's got about 1100 pages - maybe 1200 pages -- written. He seems to anticipate that another 500 pages will bring him to 1600 pages, which will then have to be edited down to a STORM/DANCE sized volume, as was done with DANCE. But of course the tale will grow in the telling, so he will probably need more than 500 pages to reach a suitable cutoff.

I posted on this in general section. It tells us nothing specific about Winds, except that it is nice he is spending time thinking about the future story and where it is headed.

Aeron Greyjoy is awesome. He can do the kiss of life; never considers himself for the kingship; is fond of his niece Asha; spends his time among humble fisherfolk who represent the non-pirate core of Ironborn culture; continues to defy Euron after 6 months of torture; tries to save Falia; and, when he thinks he is about to die, tries to comfort Falia. And of course, no godless man may sit the Seastone Chair.

I don't believe in worshiping devils, so I don't want to make too much of Mad Euron's badassery. Nonetheless, between Euron and Victarion, it is clear that Euron is the senior devil, and Victarion merely a junior devil, who thinks he is out for himself, but is in fact merely Euron's puppet.

A steady 12 knots is 330 miles per day. By what logic would it take too much time? The only reason sailing is generally slow is that the winds cannot be controlled. Euron sent Victarion ahead, but Euron will arrive at about the same time, if not sooner. All the clues are there.Victarion has suffered considerable delays from unfavorable or absent winds. Meanwhile, Euron can "ride the storm" via blood magic; as well as take shortcuts through the Smoking Sea.

The differences are likely not great. It has long been suspected that Victarion will die early. In our current books, Euron is apparently going to Slaver's Bay and he is taking Aeron with him. That he is launching some major attack on the Reach is some weird kind of fan delusion.

Disagree. If, in spite of his best efforts, an ending that sucks donkey balls is all he can do, he should just give it to us, and let us move on.

This indicates he received multiple chapters of WINDS; at least one of which concerned Braavos. More or less the same objection. Also, in his Talks at Google, he says that he added the zoo at the Sealord's Palace based on request. He mistakenly believes this location was never mentioned in the books yet, as shown in his Talks at Google. Sounds to me as though this is not necessarily any different from an artist's eye for variety. Out of curiosity, can anyone identify any named locations that are not already accounted for in the books we know? He was sent a set of chapters from WINDS. He was also sent a set of geographic details, either as part of those chapters, or separately, or both. He was told (by who I don't know) that certain details were important. He says he worked closely with Elio and Linda. His answer is ambiguous at best. I'm not sure he understood the question. Okay, he recieved more than one Arya chapter. But were they all from WINDS? I'm not sure he has clearly stated it even once. Nor am I sure he clearly remembers which Braavos chapters come from WINDS and which from FEAST or DANCE. I don't see a contradiction. He can be aware of a geographical detail, regardless of its source, without understanding its plot importance. I would guess that, at the very least, he was told to add things to the island off the Sealord's palace, such as the menagerie and an ambiguous greenhouse and a few trees. Nothing wrong with that, of course. These details have an exaggerated importance in some people's minds, due to their connection to contentious argument tied to lemon trees. And Elio and Linda were among his advisors. I don't think that follows at all. But when GRRM finally published the Mercy chapter, and someone criticized it, he said he had rewritten the chapter several times, and was not going to rewrite it again. The "Mercy" sample chapter was not released until early 2014; and he then complained of having rewritten it several times. That plausibly explains the 2013 reference. As for the 2020 reference, I hope and believe it is a new chapter he is working on. Note that, in his 2020 reference, she seems to be still in Braavos. i would like her to get to Westeros at some point, so I am actually inclined to hope that he is still in 2020 early in her arc.

I try to read GRRM's words narrowly, so i don't delude myself with unrealistic expectations. But you have outdone me here. I read GRRM's statement that he had written "hundreds and hundreds" of pages in 2020 as implying at least 400 pages of page-count progress in 2020. But, you argue, i cannot prove that these 400 pages did not consist of rewriting maybe 150 pages that he had previously written and torn up. So maybe on the whole he only made 250 pages of progress in 2020. And maybe he tore up 50 of the pages in 2021 and plans to rewrite them. So on balance he made only 100 pages of progress. Okay. I cannot absolutely disprove that. But it is considerably less generous than i was being. Your motive in making this argument seems to be to refute any suggestion that he made minimal progress in other years. But why does this matter? The big picture still remains. And the big picture seems to be only 900 pages of page-count progress in 11 years (200+900=1100). If anything, I thought it was a good sign that he had made at least 400 pages of progress as recently as 2020. He is getting old, and it is good to know that he can still write. But if you want to dash my hopes, go ahead.

WHAT? I made no such assumption. I assumed nothing about what "working on Winds" means. And i never accused him of not "working on Winds". I only pointed out the logically unavoidable fact that he has made minimal page count progress in 11 years. And the more pages you ascribe to some years, the less you can assign to other years. So what? When did I accuse him of lying?

It would have been in 2012, according to this 2016 article Game of Thrones Season Six: The fantasy cartographer also hates it when the TV show strays from the book (qz.com) But the cartographer was probably misremembering if he thinks all the chapters he was sent were WINDS chapters. More likely, he was sent all chapters set in Braavos, including one Sam chapter, featuring Arya.

Preston's analysis was that GRRM was two thirds done. A few month pass and more stuff gets written. Then GRRM says he's about three quarters done, more or less. I'm not saying you can't quibble with some of the details of his analysis. But if Preston is so wrong, then why was he so right? Looks like two thirds done was roughly in the correct ballpark, at the time. Wishful thinking colors everything. According to some who were there, he said he COULD write an entire novel of Ayra's adventures in Braavos INSTEAD of writing WINDS. Since Preston was not there, he was right to treat this as unconfirmed. Additionally, a man involved in the ASOIAF map project said he had been sent a "set" of Arya chapters from WINDS so he could map out Braavos. More likely however, in light of the intended purpose of mapping out Braavos, he had been sent a full set of all Arya's Braavos chapters, including one (or two?) from WINDS, which at this point included: - Arya I (AFFC) - Arya II (AFFC) - Cat of the Canals (AFFC) - Samwell III (AFFC), set in Braavos, and featuring Arya - The Blind Girl (ADWD) - The Ugly Little Girl (ADWD) - Mercy (Wind's Sample Chapter) - possibly one more chapter, maybe unfinished, bumped from DANCE to WINDS? Anyhow, quibbling over details is almost beside the point, at this stage. If GRRM really wrote a small novel's worth of material in 2012, and wrote "hundreds and hundreds" of pages in 2022, and had 200 pages bumped from DANCE, and has only "about 1100" pages done now, then his progress, if any, must have been, on average, absolutely minute during every other year.

Delusional, yes. But it is hard to call her selfish when she has delusional ideas about where her duty lay. And I think her delusions were of Joffrey's grandeur, not her own.

If his testimony was used to support Tyrion's annulment, he is also a perjurer.