Stannis faking his death= Chekhov's gun?

[ApKing06]

For one, Val is Dalla's sister, not her daughter. She's Mance's sister "in law," minus the law.

Secondly, she has no political value. Unlike hostages from the great houses, It doesn't improve Ramsay's political position in Westeros to have her in his possession.

The only thing Ramsay having Val achieves is to weaken Mance's position, and that of the wildlings at the Wall.

So why would Mance - even under torcher - tell Ramsay about Val and his son, when the most likely outcome of doing so would be their death? I don't believe he would...

Further, if you do believe so, I would still contend that there's a reason Mance's captivity "happened" offstage.

And that reason could very well be that he's not in captivity at all. In which case it becomes a worthy pursuit to consider alternate authors of the pink letter and their motives. But that's another thread all together.

Burned by a Wiki that said she was Dalla's daughter

I only brought it up as a possible reason why The boltons would refer to her as a "princess" in the bastard letter if they wrote it. Everyone at the Wall kept calling her Princess even though she is not because she is related to Manse who they know as the King beyond the Wall. The Boltons may simply be calling her that the same way everyone else does.

So, i guess what im trying to say is that the letter refering to her as a Princess may not necessisarilly negate the Boltons being the ones that wrote the letter

I agree with you. Things happening off stage may not be whats actually happening and considering other authors for the letter is certainly a worthy pursuit. In fact if that letter was not written by the Boltons it would be a great plot twist.

I certainly was not trying to deny it couldnt be someone else. Just adding my 2 cents in.

[Slayer of Lies]

Burned by a Wiki that said she was Dalla's daughter

I only brought it up as a possible reason why The boltons would refer to her as a "princess" in the bastard letter if they wrote it. Everyone at the Wall kept calling her Princess even though she is not because she is related to Manse who they know as the King beyond the Wall. The Boltons may simply be calling her that the same way everyone else does.

So, i guess what im trying to say is that the letter refering to her as a Princess may not necessisarilly negate the Boltons being the ones that wrote the letter

I agree with you. Things happening off stage may not be whats actually happening and considering other authors for the letter is certainly a worthy pursuit. In fact if that letter was not written by the Boltons it would be a great plot twist.

I certainly was not trying to deny it couldnt be someone else. Just adding my 2 cents in.

All good, and I didn’t mean to sound inflammatory, if I did.

My main contention would still be that, in order for the Boltons to actually even learn about Val or hear the term “wildling princess,” they either have to have Mance in captivity or have been in communication with someone at the Wall, neither of which is impossible, but both of which require text-support from the books to actually prove, IMO.

While it’s not really a stretch to imagine that Boltons have somehow “picked up on” Val’s existence, there is no text evidence in ADWD where, for example, Ramsay or Roose utter the terms “wildling princess” or “wildling babe,” or express an awareness of their existence outside of the letter itself. In essence, we could assert that the Boltons are aware of Val, but we cannot present a quote from the books to prove it, and we do not have POV confirmation of Ramsay as the author.

Meanwhile, a POV-verified captive Mance would prove out how Ramsay had heard of Val, for example, which seems like a necessary puzzle piece if Ramsay wrote the letter (assuming, also, that Mance would be willing to make Ramsay aware of Val and his son, knowing that doing so may result in their deaths). In any scenario where Ramsay wrote the letter, though, some additional amount of text-supported exposition into how he learned of the terms “wildling princess” and “wildling babe” still seems necessary to me. Likewise, learning of Mance’s burning is another one of those obstacles. If a spearwife is captive instead of Mance, for example, one must assume that the spearwife is aware that Mance’s burning was a ruse. Or Mance himself would have to tell Ramsay that he was “burned,” along with the other information.

On the flipside, if the letter came from “camp Stannis” via a Stannis/Asha/Theon “authorship collective,” for example, additional exposition into how they learned of Mance, Mance’s “burning,” and the spearwives also seems necessary. The Theon chapter hints at this heavily, IMO, with “he tried to tell her all of it,” and “he had to say who Abel was, and talk about the washerwomen who weren’t truly washerwomen,” suggesting that Theon may have learned more in his closed door conversation with Mance than he’s currently letting on in his narrative. But, as debated in the “Asha wrote the bastard letter” thread and elsewhere, these passages do not inarguably prove that Theon knows Mance is Abel, or that the washerwomen were known to be spearwives. Theon may be later revealed to have this information, just like Ned may have known that Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna without revealing it to the reader, but neither notion has an inarguable quote from the books to simply close the case (yet) without rebuttal.

Meanwhile, if Mance wrote the letter, all of the exposition is pretty much already there for him to be a viable author, with the possible exceptions of how much truth there is to the “seven days of battle” or “their heads are upon the walls” statements. But these statements could as easily have been made up by any potential author, so aren’t nearly as much of a gotcha as many of the other key phrases of the letter.

Although, Mance as a potential author – just like Asha and company – has the added hurdle of “attaching” the letter to a raven known to be trained to fly to Castle Black (assuming, as well, that the letter arrived by raven; we never see the bird, although the phrase dark wings, dark words makes an appearance).

For all of these reasons and more, the bastard letter is possibly the most “frustrating” cliffhanger of the series to date, and maybe one of the best in fantasy fiction. But that’s also what makes it a great mystery, and an ongoing debate.

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

Hmm Stan faking his death, will have to be one of the better thought out strategies. (if it succeeds)

[aryagonnakill]

All good, and I didn’t mean to sound inflammatory, if I did.

My main contention would still be that, in order for the Boltons to actually even learn about Val or hear the term “wildling princess,” they either have to have Mance in captivity or have been in communication with someone at the Wall, neither of which is impossible, but both of which require text-support from the books to actually prove, IMO.

I've been trying to think about the time frame here,(enough to give anyone a headache) and I believe it is possible that the Thenns and Alys should have taken up their seat at Karhold by the time of the battle. It is likely then that all the information about the wildings at the wall became available to the Boltons, via someone at Karhold.

[bogdevil]

I've been trying to think about the time frame here,(enough to give anyone a headache) and I believe it is possible that the Thenns and Alys should have taken up their seat at Karhold by the time of the battle. It is likely then that all the information about the wildings at the wall became available to the Boltons, via someone at Karhold.

or is it even possible that information about the situation at the wall came to the Boltons from the Karstarks? We know that they were spying for them already and Stannis caught them. Maybe that is how they know about Val?

[Welease Woger]

Crackpot:

What if Stannis is not dead, not because he is faking it, but because he is the new Reek? :devil:

[JungWheats]

Stannis as Reek 3.0 ftw.

More likely, though, I think the drive to carry on, even without Stannis, is how Arya will get home. Stan sent some people to Braavos, and I think their conviction to carry out Stannis' orders will get Arya back to Westeros(stowaway or something). I think Stannis is going to die in the coming battle.

But I mostly feel that way because there doesn't seem to be any reason for his character to continue to live. I think Stannis' big purpose was to break the siege of the Wall and to force the Tyrells and Lannisters together. After that...whats the point?

I know lots of people love Stannis, but I just can't see him beating the Boltons, fighting his way back south, then finally taking the throne.

[Slayer of Lies]

I've been trying to think about the time frame here,(enough to give anyone a headache) and I believe it is possible that the Thenns and Alys should have taken up their seat at Karhold by the time of the battle. It is likely then that all the information about the wildings at the wall became available to the Boltons, via someone at Karhold.

Maybe the timeline does work for the Boltons to have heard of Val through the Thenns or other means, but it’s equally as speculative as suggesting the Boltons were in contact with “the coup” at the Wall, or any other currently non-text-supported notions.

No matter who wrote the pink letter, how they obtained the “missing information” and/or the means required to do so (and send it) is also likely to be revealed.

If Ramsay wrote the letter, that missing info includes not only the battle of ice/Trojan Horse fallout (leading Ramsay to believe that Stannis is dead), but whether or not Mance is in captivity, and how Ramsay would have learned of Val, Mance’s son, Mance’s burning, etc.

If Mance wrote it, how he accessed a raven would have to be revealed, and if “camp Stannis” wrote it, how they accessed some of the missing information and a raven would have to be revealed.

As for storytelling and the overall arch, Ramsay is certainly the most obvious/”least interesting” author, because his authorship involves a simple twist (the Trojan horse theory) that nearly everyone on the boards has reasoned lives somewhere between plausible and likely.

This is partly why I suspect GRRM has something up his sleeve involving an alternate author, with either Mance or “camp Stannis” having a buyable amount of foreshadowing and text-support to provide a surprise reveal down the road.

[ACVG]

it sounds too much like ramsay for it NOT to be written by him... the whole obsession with the bastard thing and flaying

sure theon could've helped stannis fill in details but why would stannis depend so much on someone whose loyalty is so uncertain.

its more likely stannis had the karstarks send a fake message to winterfell with false reports

they prob included that theon went to the wall with "arya" to reunite her with her brother...stannis doesnt know that this arya is fake and theon is not going to tell him for her jeyne's protection. the letter prob included all the "wildling princess" and "wildling babe" stuff to make the wall look a lot more interesting for ramsay and co. the more "characters" there are at the wall the more likely the boltons are to try to provoke the NW into war with them... which is great for stannis

stannis used the "royal" terms for the wildlings just makes them look more intriguing

so now there is a "princess" "little prince" "arya" and "reek" at the wall with the protection of the NW...nonpartisan??? i think not

[TyrionsFlagon]

http://bryndenbfish.wordpress.com/2013/11/19/a-complete-analysis-of-the-upcoming-siege-of-winterfell-part-2/

Great article analyzing the siege of Winterfell. This is part 2. Part 1 basically explains what we know up until the end of ADwD. This is all speculation from whoever wrote it, and it's lengthy, but nerdy fans like myself should enjoy the read.

Towards the bottom it explains how Stannis could fake his own death in order to sorta "Trojan Horse" his way into Winterfell.

To summarize the article, the Freys all die, the Manderly's and Karstarks (maybe?) return to Roose and Ramsay with Stannis' sword and tell him that it's won. Then they'll eventually open the gates for Stannis to enter.

[Slayer of Lies]

http://bryndenbfish.wordpress.com/2013/11/19/a-complete-analysis-of-the-upcoming-siege-of-winterfell-part-2/

Great article analyzing the siege of Winterfell. This is part 2. Part 1 basically explains what we know up until the end of ADwD. This is all speculation from whoever wrote it, and it's lengthy, but nerdy fans like myself should enjoy the read.

Towards the bottom it explains how Stannis could fake his own death in order to sorta "Trojan Horse" his way into Winterfell.

To summarize the article, the Freys all die, the Manderly's and Karstarks (maybe?) return to Roose and Ramsay with Stannis' sword and tell him that it's won. Then they'll eventually open the gates for Stannis to enter.

I suspect most of the visitors to this thread have read (and enjoyed) that analysis, and have noted that it is in alignment with multiple threads on the boards. I can certainly see many events playing out that way...

But, again... even if events unfold exactly as BB suggests, that's only half of the equation. The rest of the contents of the letter - if written by Ramsay - still need exposition, such as whether Mance is actually in captivity, how precisely Ramsay learned of Val, Mance's son, Mance's burning... whether or not there's any truth to "seven days of battle," etc.

The Trojan Horse theory is an excellent "tactical suggestion" of how SOME events are likely to play out, but relies on too many other unconfirmed events/claims in the letter being true.

[The Dragon has three heads]

Stannis could be faking his death. In league with Manderly, they kill all the Freys in the ice and fake Stannis' death. Manderly returns to Winterfell with his men and Stannis' men dressed as Freys, and brings Stannis' sword with him as proof that Stannis was indeed killed (since he knew a head won't suffice- neither Roose nor Ramsay ever met face-to-face with Stannis). So the Boltons think all is well, while they actually let the Trojan Horse through their gates, waiting for the right time to attack (no doubt, after Manderly gets a chance to speak with the other Northern lords and get them on his side). Meanwhile, Ramsay writes the Pink Letter- under the impression that it's contents are the truth.

Is that a good enough way to make Ramsay writing the Pink Letter plausible?

Occam's razor says yes.

Stannis fans will riot if he's been killed in an off page battle without even getting to winterfell.

[YTDN]

I think the argument that 'well we've all figured it out on the boards so it's too obvious so GRRM will do something else' isn't very good, since this forum isn't even a large minority of readers, and we've had two years to pick apart the novels together. There's a reason GRRM doesn't frequent forums- he doesn't want to see that people have worked things out and feel like he has to change things.

[joluoto]

The Ramsay angle is pretty clear, I think, because he could simply write the letter w/ information from the crofters’ village, whether accurate or inaccurate, and Stannis (unrelatedly) would simply be employing common sense by expressing that he may die in the upcoming battle.

Although that makes Stannis’ “you may hear that I’m dead” comment entirely coincidental, which it certainly doesn’t feel like it is to me.

Further, Ramsay’s authorship still requires that he has Mance or a spearwife in captivity.

I personally have a hard time believing that Mance is in captivity, since it supposedly happened off screen with no confirmation.

And the spearwife angle on Ramsay’s authorship requires one to believe that a spearwife Mance picked up from Mole’s Town knows about Stannis’ sword, Melisandre, Mance’s burning, Selyse and Shireen. Similarly, Mance or a spearwife would still have to be inclined to refer to Val as a “wildling princess” under torcher, which is something the denizens of Westeros call her, but not the wildlings.

Not impossible to justify with Ramsay as the author, but worth consideration until the case is closed.

I’m personally more curious why Val would even be mentioned if Ramsay is the author. I mean, I can concoct answers, but I don’t like any of them.

That letter always gives me headache. The author knows too much. Still the only thing that makes sense considering how insane the letter is, is that Ramsay wrote it after having tortured some information from one or two of the Spearwives (but why does the Spearwives know so much?). But then again, no one but Ramsay would give a shit about Reek. That Theon/ Reek is even mentioned once again turn it to Ramsay.

[Slayer of Lies]

That letter always gives me headache. The author knows too much. Still the only thing that makes sense considering how insane the letter is, is that Ramsay wrote it after having tortured some information from one or two of the Spearwives (but why does the Spearwives know so much?). But then again, no one but Ramsay would give a shit about Reek. That Theon/ Reek is even mentioned once again turn it to Ramsay.

And, likewise, that someone wanting to sound like Ramsay, armed with enough info, would know to include Reek in the letter for “accuracy’s sake,” despite that they don’t actually expect him to be delivered.

To that point, regardless of who authored the letter, I believe that they can’t have expected Jon and company to actually follow through with any of its demands.

Some say the letter was written to sew discord at the Wall, but the effect of the letter was instead galvanization.

Therein, I believe that an intelligent author (e.g. Mance/Asha/Stannis) armed with enough info to author the letter would foresee a need to push Jon’s emotional buttons, suspecting that he might motivate a force of men to attack WF (and perhaps even overcome Ramsay, save Stannis’ company, and/or otherwise help him win/escape, if the author is Asha/Stannis, or perhaps instead to isolate Jon away from the Wall to extract revenge for his betrayal of the wildlings, if the author is Mance).

Meanwhile, even though Ramsay more or less appears to write letters like he swings a sword, a “butcher hacking meat,” it would seem that even he would want Jon to march on WF so he could follow through on his promise to eat Jon’s bastard heart out. However, there is also no precedent for Ramsay simply eating someone’s heart. He seems to prefer to hunt, then torcher, and then kill. So if the letter sounds like Ramsay, why would he threaten to do something he is not known to do?

And the carousel spins on…

[Ser Shaft of Hightower]

Mance is the only name in the letter. Red & Black are the only colors mentioned (Mance's cloak). And as for "Ramsay's" writing style, while at first it seems to obviously be him, on closer inspection some of the details don't fit at all.

Reek/Theon met with Abel just before the escaped, remember. I believe that Mance wrote the letter, using formals pilfered in haste during the Horn-blowing confusion(hence the smear of wax with no seal imprint), sent with the aid of Hother Umber. Hother knows ravencraft from his days at The Citadel, and the Freys still hold the Greatjon....so his apparent complicity with the Boltons is a..., well, a ruse.

[Ser Shaft of Hightower]

supporting analysis http://branvras.free.fr/HuisClos/Battle.html

[Slayer of Lies]

Mance is the only name in the letter. Red & Black are the only colors mentioned (Mance's cloak). And as for "Ramsay's" writing style, while at first it seems to obviously be him, on closer inspection some of the details don't fit at all.

Reek/Theon met with Abel just before the escaped, remember. I believe that Mance wrote the letter, using formals pilfered in haste during the Horn-blowing confusion(hence the smear of wax with no seal imprint), sent with the aid of Hother Umber. Hother knows ravencraft from his days at The Citadel, and the Freys still hold the Greatjon....so his apparent complicity with the Boltons is a..., well, a ruse.

I can’t believe I never noticed (or paid attention to the fact) that red and black were the only colors mentioned in the letter… Thanks for that!

I always took it as a clue that Mance’s name was the only actual name spelled out in the letter, but I think the colors are another very compelling clue in the case for Mance as the sole author.

Interestingly, it seems Hothor might very well aid Mance directly in sending a raven, knowing that his brother Mors offered to join Stannis on the condition that Stannis pardon Hothor when all is said and done. And, conveniently, Hothor’s father sent him to Oldtown when he was younger, believing that he had the makings of a maester…

Also notably in the mix, Ramsay does not trust Hothor, expecting betrayal at some point.

However, with an “escape plan” in place (protection from Stannis) and the conditions being set to enact a covert betrayal during the chaos of “Arya’s” escape, it seems Mance could pen the letter and hand it to Hothor to send, ensuring Hothor that he would be ushered into Stannis’ care after everything blows over.

Of course, Mance’s cover in WF is still blown due to the exposed “washerwomen,” and he needs to either hide out (say, in the crypts) or also hop over the walls into a snowbank, but – at the very least – he will have not only saved Theon/”Arya,” but brought Stannis some backup troops in the process.

[Ser Shaft of Hightower]

you're welcome :cheers:

the whole Huis Clos series is worth the read for tons of insights (the various Horns, the crucial yet often overlooked importance of Harrenhal, why Val is so very special etc)

i've read some in-depth analysese but this is one of the best easily

http://branvras.free.fr/HuisClos/Contents.html

[Slayer of Lies]

you're welcome :cheers:

the whole Huis Clos series is worth the read for tons of insights (the various Horns, the crucial yet often overlooked importance of Harrenhal, why Val is so very special etc)

i've read some in-depth analysese but this is one of the best easily

http://branvras.free.fr/HuisClos/Contents.html

Thanks, I’ve read most of those, and they are very thorough, but I do not always agree with the conclusions…

For example, there’s a lengthy one I read some months ago (which I can’t find now) where he pointed out all of the similar language that Mance uses or hears that is “recycled” in the letter (“red witch,” “false king,” “for all the world to see,” etc., as in his post on this page), but the conclusion in the essay on Huis Clos was still that Ramsay wrote the pink letter.

In any case, fun, thorough reads, well-researched, etc., and one can still come to their own conclusions after reading them.

In any event, the closed door meeting between Mance and Theon is important too…

As I argued the case for Asha penning the bastard letter (on my first thread after joining the forums), it’s possible that Mance passed enough information along to Theon that Theon and Asha could be about to write the letter (by their timeline)… Asha had a “template” in the letter she received from Ramsay, Theon knows how Ramsay talks, and if Mance loaded Theon up with the “missing information” they would need to write the letter in their closed door meeting, it might be possible for the letter to come from “camp Stannis.”

But Mance is (with the details we have at present) a much “cleaner” answer to who authored the letter, particularly when factoring in the Hothor angle.

Anyway, thanks again, and cheers back. :cheers: