Did Stannis honestly ever have a chance?

[Osney Kettleblack]

the golden company will attack the stormlands, then Stannis and Dorne will attack from the north&south and crush the lannisters and tyrells

[Antler's Fury]

He was screwed the minute Robert died without knowing he had no true born sons. There were avenues that Ned could have taken that would have kept the realm together, but they would almost all involve naming someone other than Stannis heir. Various plans to keep Joffery on the throne, the shows plan to put Renly on the throne, even forging the will to name himself king and giving the appropriate promises to Dorne and the Reach (which Ned would never do, but would have worked better than his actual plan) all have been more effective than trying to get Stannis on the Throne.

How so? If Ned won his coup against Cersei and called Stannis over to take power, who would oppose him? Ned would bring the North and the Riverlands with him. The Vale would not interfere, nor would Dorne. The Iron Islands would actually be less inclined to invade given that both Ned and Stannis would be in power; the Northern army would still be in the North to fight back, and Stannis, who has beaten the Ironborn once before, would be perfectly willing to beat them again and execute Balon this time. That leaves the Stormlands, the Reach, and the Westerlands. Tywin would obviously rise against Stannis to avenge the imprisonment and/or execution of his children and grandchildren, but who would rise with him? Neither Renly nor the Tyrells have reason to side with Tywin, and with two kingdoms on Stannis' side, even Renly would probably have to think about whether or not to crown himself, as the idea that "no one wants Stannis for their king" is clearly false.

[Draco_Dracul]

How so? If Ned won his coup against Cersei and called Stannis over to take power, who would oppose him? Ned would bring the North and the Riverlands with him. The Vale would not interfere, nor would Dorne. The Iron Islands would actually be less inclined to invade given that both Ned and Stannis would be in power; the Northern army would still be in the North to fight back, and Stannis, who has beaten the Ironborn once before, would be perfectly willing to beat them again and execute Balon this time. That leaves the Stormlands, the Reach, and the Westerlands. Tywin would obviously rise against Stannis to avenge the imprisonment and/or execution of his children and grandchildren, but who would rise with him? Neither Renly nor the Tyrells have reason to side with Tywin, and with two kingdoms on Stannis' side, even Renly would probably have to think about whether or not to crown himself, as the idea that "no one wants Stannis for their king" is clearly false.

Ned was never going to succeed with a coup to put Stannis on the throne. There was no one other than his small personal guard willing to back a coup for Stannis, and backing out half way through a coup to turn Joffery into a powerless puppet king and instead give the throne to Stannis would get him killed by his co-conspirators before Stannis even set foot on a ship to go to King's Landing. Well Little Finger would have him killed, Renly would do what he did in canon and Tywin would gamble that any threats of Ned killing a 12 year old boy would be empty.

Ned would have actually been better off naming himself king and sending a copy of the forged will to The Reach and Dorne promising Robb's hand in marriage and the heads of The Mountain and Amory Louch respectively then trying to double cross Renly or Little Finger to put Stannis on the throne.

[Antler's Fury]

Ned was never going to succeed with a coup to put Stannis on the throne. There was no one other than his small personal guard willing to back a coup for Stannis, and backing out half way through a coup to turn Joffery into a powerless puppet king and instead give the throne to Stannis would get him killed by his co-conspirators before Stannis even set foot on a ship to go to King's Landing. Well Little Finger would have him killed, Renly would do what he did in canon and Tywin would gamble that any threats of Ned killing a 12 year old boy would be empty.

Ned would have actually been better off naming himself king and sending a copy of the forged will to The Reach and Dorne promising Robb's hand in marriage and the heads of The Mountain and Amory Louch respectively then trying to double cross Renly or Little Finger to put Stannis on the throne.

Ned could have put Stannis in power if he had enough men and, as Hand, he would have had the authority to call as many as he liked from the Crownlands or one of the adjacent kingdoms. He could have had the GCs on his side if he'd bribed them himself rather than letting LF do it. LF can't kill Ned without enough swords, and he only has a handful of personal guardsmen, hardly enough to overwhelm Ned's own guards. Renly would only do what he did in canon if the Lannisters took power. If Ned took power, even without Renly's help, he'd have no reason to crown himself. His original goal was to see Ned take the regency, and he only crowned himself after this failed.

[FaSome]

No. He's been under the false impression of a confused red priestess that he is some chosen one/savior when he is in fact just being pushed across the board to his doom, so that she can find and assist the true chosen one(s).

[TheMysteriousOne]

I think Stannis' original purpose was to be filler, but his purpose in the story, IMO, has grown.

But he is by no means a main character, and he most likely won't win. The main characters of this story are Dany, Jon, Tyrion, Arya, Bran and Sansa.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

I don't see how Renly ignoring the fact that Stannis was the rightful king is Stannis' fault. Stannis killed Renly which was totally warranted, however actually doing it himself would have been smarter than the Smoke demon, and made it impossible to get the Tyrells on his side. Renly totally screwed his family. He had no right whatsoever to claim the throne.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

As far as I see this, if this ends up being a game of thrones history, he wont win the chair that would go to a main character....But if this, as I think, its about a song of ice and fire, he fits perfectly as the ending king.

[Draco_Dracul]

How so? If Ned won his coup against Cersei and called Stannis over to take power, who would oppose him? Ned would bring the North and the Riverlands with him. The Vale would not interfere, nor would Dorne. The Iron Islands would actually be less inclined to invade given that both Ned and Stannis would be in power; the Northern army would still be in the North to fight back, and Stannis, who has beaten the Ironborn once before, would be perfectly willing to beat them again and execute Balon this time. That leaves the Stormlands, the Reach, and the Westerlands. Tywin would obviously rise against Stannis to avenge the imprisonment and/or execution of his children and grandchildren, but who would rise with him? Neither Renly nor the Tyrells have reason to side with Tywin, and with two kingdoms on Stannis' side, even Renly would probably have to think about whether or not to crown himself, as the idea that "no one wants Stannis for their king" is clearly false.

If Ned could have hired the Gold Cloaks without LF he would have.

The Combined forces of the Riverlands, North, Vale, and Stormlands barely beat the might of the Reach while while they had half their forces sitting on there hands for a year. The Riverlands are already losing to Tywin, and the Stormlands will mostly fight for Renly over Stannis. Stannis will never have the loyalty of the Reach because he is married to a Florent.

Ned, unlike Stannis has the power to win the Reach to his side because of Robb.

Despite what Roose said, the Iron Islands were irrelevant in the scheme of things, Robb lost the moment the Reach sided with the Lannisters.

Tywin has no reason to fight for Renly, but he has reason to fight.

[Antler's Fury]

If Ned could have hired the Gold Cloaks without LF he would have.

He certainly could have. As Hand, he had the authority and the gold. He wouldn't even be breaking the law, just using the power given to him by Robert. The reason he did not is because his underlying flaw was that he refused to use his powers as Hand, seeing himself as a glorified advisor to Robert. And this isn't even considering the fact that he could have, and should have summoned as many men as needed from the Crownlands or adjacent kingdoms and put them under his personal control. With a possible Dothraki invasion, he'd have the perfect excuse.

The Combined forces of the Riverlands, North, Vale, and Stormlands barely beat the might of the Reach while while they had half their forces sitting on there hands for a year. The Riverlands are already losing to Tywin, and the Stormlands will mostly fight for Renly over Stannis. Stannis will never have the loyalty of the Reach because he is married to a Florent.

Renly wanted Ned as regent, and thus had no reason to crown himself if Ned won his coup.

Ned, unlike Stannis has the power to win the Reach to his side because of Robb.

There is no way Mace is risking intense involvement in a war against three kingdoms, two of which are allied together, without good reason. His house owed the Targs, and even then he did as little as possible. Granted, Renly offers him a better deal, but even Renly would have reason to pause and think if two kingdoms allied against him. One of the reasons for his confidence was that no one liked Stannis, and the Lannisters and Starks were fighting one another. However, a Stannis backed by two kingdoms is a very different opponent. Anyway, Stannis can easily shadow baby Renly, netting the Stormlands and forcing Mace to shelve his delusions of grandeur and marry one of his kids to Robb,Sansa, Shireen, etc.

[Sullen]

I think differently, everyone who has had good luck, eventually has a streak of bad..

Stannis has gone against the odds, and favour and has had nothing but bad luck but now, he may just finally get the good luck... he will be there to the end... wether he wins or not... different story...

I don't call Renly mysteriously dying in the night to leave a whole army to Stannis while he was about to crush him "bad luck"...

In fact, it's exactly the opposite.

[Draco_Dracul]

He certainly could have. As Hand, he had the authority and the gold. He wouldn't even be breaking the law, just using the power given to him by Robert. The reason he did not is because his underlying flaw was that he refused to use his powers as Hand, seeing himself as a glorified advisor to Robert. And this isn't even considering the fact that he could have, and should have summoned as many men as needed from the Crownlands or adjacent kingdoms and put them under his personal control. With a possible Dothraki invasion, he'd have the perfect excuse.

The Crown has no gold, The Crown is broke and everyone in King's Landing knows it. Most know LF is independantly wealthy and the Lannisters pay the bills. Ned sees the Dothraki as a non-issue.

Renly wanted Ned as regent, and thus had no reason to crown himself if Ned won his coup.

This would change very quickly if he tried to crown Stannis.

There is no way Mace is risking intense involvement in a war against three kingdoms, two of which are allied together, without good reason. His house owed the Targs, and even then he did as little as possible. Granted, Renly offers him a better deal, but even Renly would have reason to pause and think if two kingdoms allied against him. One of the reasons for his confidence was that no one liked Stannis, and the Lannisters and Starks were fighting one another. However, a Stannis backed by two kingdoms is a very different opponent. Anyway, Stannis can easily shadow baby Renly, netting the Stormlands and forcing Mace to shelve his delusions of grandeur and marry one of his kids to Robb,Sansa, Shireen, etc.

He did so when he didn't have the chance to insure that his grandson would be king and was facing three Kingdoms that were together and a Riverlands that wasn't already devastated by war. Additionally, Stannis is married to a Florent, talks of rights and was married to said Florent so the crown would have something to beat the Reach over the head with.

[mb2518]

Stannis is at his best when the odds are against him. The reader keeps expecting a Stark to be this character, in reality it's Stannis.

[MindLikeWarp]

Stannis is the Song of Ice and Fire. He is currently dealing with the Fire part, with Mel and R'hllor. He will become the Night King, which is the Ice part. Then he will die saving HIS kingdom.

Stannis is the only true King of Westeros. He is Robert's legal heir. Society needs rules to maintain stability. Stannis is the King according to society's rules.

[Antler's Fury]

The Crown has no gold, The Crown is broke and everyone in King's Landing knows it. Most know LF is independantly wealthy and the Lannisters pay the bills.

Then offer his own personal gold. Or better yet, offer a lordship, something only he, as Hand and Regent, can give. Heck, if Ned simply gave the GCs an order while Robert lay dying, and Cersei had not yet seized the regency, what choice would they have but to obey, even without bribes? Seizing Joffrey and his siblings and making them his wards isn't even illegal. The probem with Ned is that, time and time again, he simply didn't utilize the power Robert gave him when it would have made things so much easier.

Ned sees the Dothraki as a non-issue.

Then he lies and says they are. Again, he doesn't even really need a cover story. He is Hand, so no one except Robert can question his decisions, and Robert would have no problem with more troops in the capital to stave off an impending Dothraki invasion.

.

This would change very quickly if he tried to crown Stannis.

Enough to fight against a Stannis with two kingdoms behind him? Enough to defy Ned whom Renly himself witnessed being given the regency? Again, one of the reasons Renly crowns himself is precisely because Stannis has little support, so he'd have to weigh his options if Stannis actually had substantial power. At any rate, Stannis could just shadow baby him and that would be the end of it.

He did so when he didn't have the chance to insure that his grandson would be king and was facing three Kingdoms that were together and a Riverlands that wasn't already devastated by war. Additionally, Stannis is married to a Florent, talks of rights and was married to said Florent so the crown would have something to beat the Reach over the head with.

This dependent on Renly's willingness to go for it. Even if he does, there's no guarantee he will win, especially since Stannis could just shadow baby Renly and end it. Unless Mace is willing to defy the Crown alone without even a fig leaf of legitimacy, he'd have to swallow his pride. If not, Stannis can just shadow baby him too.

[Draco_Dracul]

Then offer his own personal gold. Or better yet, offer a lordship, something only he, as Hand and Regent, can give. Heck, if Ned simply gave the GCs an order while Robert lay dying, and Cersei had not yet seized the regency, what choice would they have but to obey, even without bribes? Seizing Joffrey and his siblings and making them his wards isn't even illegal. The probem with Ned is that, time and time again, he simply didn't utilize the power Robert gave him when it would have made things so much easier.

If the order is against the king's acknowledged heir, and the people that pay the bills? Plenty of choice. The Lannister will always be able to outbid anyone and Ned has no lordships to give.

Then he lies and says they are. Again, he doesn't even really need a cover story. He is Hand, so no one except Robert can question his decisions, and Robert would have no problem with more troops in the capital to stave off an impending Dothraki invasion.

Ned doesn't believe the Dothraki will invade, is too honest a man to give such a false reason, and his power as Hand evaporates as soon as he tries to launch a coup against Joffery.

Enough to fight against a Stannis with two kingdoms behind him? Enough to defy Ned whom Renly himself witnessed being given the regency? Again, one of the reasons Renly crowns himself is precisely because Stannis has little support, so he'd have to weigh his options if Stannis actually had substantial power. At any rate, Stannis could just shadow baby him and that would be the end of it.

The reach had enough to fight 3 full kingdoms (and a non-ravaged) with half their army. Stannis may never get the chance to shadow baby him because unlike in canon Renly has every reason to rush to King's Landing. And of course, there is a good.

This dependent on Renly's willingness to go for it. Even if he does, there's no guarantee he will win, especially since Stannis could just shadow baby Renly and end it. Unless Mace is willing to defy the Crown alone without even a fig leaf of legitimacy, he'd have to swallow his pride. If not, Stannis can just shadow baby him too.

When faced with the possibility that Stannis could use any pretense to strip High Garden from him, there is a good chance that like in canon they forge an alliance with the Lannisters or go for independence.

[Antler's Fury]

If the order is against the king's acknowledged heir, and the people that pay the bills? Plenty of choice.

If the Hand gives him a direct order, Slynt either obeys or Ned has his own men jail him and put someone else in charge who will, as Tyrion did. Again, all Ned wants is Joffrey in his custody, and as Regent, this isn't even an unusual demand.

The Lannister will always be able to outbid anyone

Except they haven't bid yet and Casterly Rock's gold is on the other side of the continent. Any gold that is in the capital is the Crown's gold not Lannister gold, which means Ned can use it as he sees fit.

and Ned has no lordships to give.

Then he promises Clegane's keep or some other Westerlands lordship to weaken the Lannisters and gain a foothold in the region. Or he makes a promise and then sends Slynt to the Wall, as Tyrion did. If Ned's coup couldn't have worked, he would never have attempted it.

Ned doesn't believe the Dothraki will invade, is too honest a man to give such a false reason,

Honesty wasn't an issue when it came time to bribe Slynt. If Ned can lie once he can do it again. If he'd been more willing to tell white lies, he'd have won.

and his power as Hand evaporates as soon as he tries to launch a coup against Joffery.

No it does not, no more than Otto Hightower's did when he tried to launch a coup against Rhaenyra. Ned's Regent and Hand, so he can do whatever he likes and has full authority to get all the men and money required to do it. The reason he lost is because he failed to use his power.

The reach had enough to fight 3 full kingdoms (and a non-ravaged) with half their army. Stannis may never get the chance to shadow baby him because unlike in canon Renly has every reason to rush to King's Landing.

Then Stannis comes to KL to assassinate him, or defeats him in battle with ned's help.

When faced with the possibility that Stannis could use any pretense to strip High Garden from him, there is a good chance that like in canon they forge an alliance with the Lannisters or go for independence

An alliance sealed with what marriage? All Tywin's grandkids are in Ned's hands at this point, so Tywin has no Baratheons to make a match. Renly won't ally with the Lannisters. If he dies, Mace could risk allying with the Lannisters against Stannis, but there's still the possibility he could lose if Stannis has three houses behind him. And of course, Stannis could still assassinate Tywin or Mace with his remaining shadow baby.

[Draco_Dracul]

If the Hand gives him a direct order, Slynt either obeys or Ned has his own men jail him and put someone else in charge who will, as Tyrion did. Again, all Ned wants is Joffrey in his custody, and as Regent, this isn't even an unusual demand.

Slynt has many times more men than Ned. If he was going that route he should have just taken Renly's offer.

Except they haven't bid yet and Casterly Rock's gold is on the other side of the continent. Any gold that is in the capital is the Crown's gold not Lannister gold, which means Ned can use it as he sees fit.

Only an idiot wouldn't see opposing the Lannisters so directly in King's Landing as killing the goose that lays the golden egg. Much of the Gold Cloaks are likely on the Lannisters direct pay role anyway.

Then he promises Clegane's keep or some other Westerlands lordship to weaken the Lannisters and gain a foothold in the region. Or he makes a promise and then sends Slynt to the Wall, as Tyrion did. If Ned's coup couldn't have worked, he would never have attempted it.

This will only work as long as the Lannisters don't have inside men other than the captain. Money can be easily divided, keeps cannot.

Honesty wasn't an issue when it came time to bribe Slynt. If Ned can lie once he can do it again. If he'd been more willing to tell white lies, he'd have won.

Bribing city guards and telling people they are here in case of a Dothraki incursian then ordering them to sieze the king are two very different things. If Ned was willing to act while Robert still lived he would have used the opportunity he had in canon.

No it does not, no more than Otto Hightower's did when he tried to launch a coup against Rhaenyra. Ned's Regent and Hand, so he can do whatever he likes and has full authority to get all the men and money required to do it. The reason he lost is because he failed to use his power

Unlike Otto he lacks an accepted pretense (in Otto's case that by tradition everywhere in the kingdom at the time, men inherit before women).

An alliance sealed with what marriage? All Tywin's grandkids are in Ned's hands at this point, so Tywin has no Baratheons to make a match. Renly won't ally with the Lannisters. If he dies, Mace could risk allying with the Lannisters against Stannis, but there's still the possibility he could lose if Stannis has three houses behind him. And of course, Stannis could still assassinate Tywin or Mace with his remaining shadow baby.

Assassinating Mace will make the Reach stronger, the reach fought three houses on an even keel with half their army sitting out the bulk of the war.

I will agree that Ned had one course of action that might have made Stannis king with little bloodshed, tell Robert about the bastards. That wouldn't have ensured Stannis would be named heir, but it was his best chance. A Ned unwilling to take any of the courses offered in canon is unwilling to take the actions you have suggested.

[Antler's Fury]

Slynt has many times more men than Ned. If he was going that route he should have just taken Renly's offer.

That didn't stop Tyrion from getting rid of him. Ned could have simply grabbed Slynt when he didn't have his men around him, as Tyrion did, and promoted a more malleable GC who'd do as ordered.

Only an idiot wouldn't see opposing the Lannisters so directly in King's Landing as killing the goose that lays the golden egg. Much of the Gold Cloaks are likely on the Lannisters direct pay role anyway.

That doesn't mean that Ned can't offer them more gold or land than the Lannisters can. As Hand, he has more power than they do, more legitimacy. Everything in the realm is his to do with as he pleases, and if the Lannisters protest, he can go to war.

This will only work as long as the Lannisters don't have inside men other than the captain. Money can be easily divided, keeps cannot.

He can offer any keep in the realm, even good ones like Castamere. He can give lands in the Stormlands, or North, or Riverlands, as many as are required to get the GCs on his side. He can take more loans from the Iron Bank or any other Free Cities moneylenders if gold is what is needed.

Bribing city guards and telling people they are here in case of a Dothraki incursian then ordering them to sieze the king are two very different things.

But not mutually exclusive things. He could say he summoned them to fight the Dothraki and now needs them to grab Joffrey for him, as Robert wished. Soldiers do as ordered. The Stormlords, Reachlords, and Narrow Sea lords had no problem following Renly and Stannis against Joffrey, why not Ned?

Unlike Otto he lacks an accepted pretense (in Otto's case that by tradition everywhere in the kingdom at the time, men inherit before women).

He doesn't need pretense. He speaks with the King's voice, and wants the prince in his custody as his ward. No one has any reason to question his orders.

Assassinating Mace will make the Reach stronger, the reach fought three houses on an even keel with half their army sitting out the bulk of the war.

Then he kills Tywin and fights Mace. The Reach is hardly invincible. Worst case scenario, Stannis and Ned have to fight the Lannisters and the Tyrells, but there's no guarantee that they'd lose agains them.

A Ned unwilling to take any of the courses offered in canon is unwilling to take the actions you have suggested.

But he could well have taken them had he been more willing to use his power, less naive, less scrupulous, etc. It was not, as you claim, impossible for Ned to crown Stannis.

[geogus]

He started off in a bad spot since he only had Dragonstone, no popular support and the Stormlands declared for Renly.

COK- After he has Renly killed and gets the Stormlands under his control, he loses them again after Blackwater in addition to devastating damage to his fleet which was his strongest asset at the time.

SOS/AFFC- Davos convinces him to sail northward to aid the Wall against the Wildlings, but abandons his two remaining fortresses in the South with only a token defense garrison. Dragonstone falls to the Crown shortly after he departs and Storm's End appears to be easy pickings for (F)Aegon and the Golden Company.

DWD- Now Stannis is effectively trapped in the North and the only reason that any Northern House is allied to him is for revenge against the Frey-Bolton Coaltion and if we take the GNC into consideration, the best case scenario doesn't look to benefit Stannis too much. The Northmen are using Stannis for their own goals and as soon as they no longer have a common enemy, they most likely won't bend knee and pledge themselves to Stannis as King. In fact, Jon refused his offer of being legitimized as a Stark/Lord of Winterfell and denied Stannis of his best chance of uniting the North under his banner.

In hindsight, the only thing that gave him a realistic chance in the first place was that an act of god caused his brother to die which fragmented his very large army, a part of which declared for Stannis. Could Stannis have taken King's Landing with just his fleet? He could cause severe damage assuming that ships in asoiaf have canons and if the crews of the ship were trained for combat, but he wouldn't be able to take or hold the city.

Sure, he's lawfully Robert's heir. But even that's put into doubt by public opinion because there's no proof that Cercei's children aren't Robert's apart from an old genealogical book and an appearance comparison to Robert's bastards who are all either dead or in hiding. He had no real power base starting off and has yet to procure a mutually beneficial alliance.

So is he just a Red Herring? Is he even more doomed than Robb was? Sure, Robb made a few critical mistakes, but at least he still had two regions to fall back on and he can't be held accountable for the bad luck that the North suffered through the Ironborn invasion.

Stannis on the other hand, has only had a maximum of one region fully supporting him tentatively and they quickly abandoned him after Blackwater.

Stannis has an asset nobody is takeing into consideration.

He is virtually the wealthiest of the pretenders at this point;

The iron bank od Braavos is supporting him and Manderlly has even more money, case he supports him.

And money is more than enough to turn the result of any war.

The iron throne is broken and no banker will lend more money. The will have to either rase taxes, what would cause more riots, since the winter is coming, or be backed by lannisters, which they re not willing to keep doing (considering Kevans epilogue in ADwD)

Highgarden has money and resources, but dont seem a reliable ally and are under pressure.from Euron.

Dorne might have some money but its alone, so far.

Aegon doesnt have any money, and relies at the good fatih of mercenaries.

Ironborn never had money