Summerhall: a case of murder, not magic

[Vaxis]

And I somehow thought they both came from Jaime chapters, oops.

Well it seems obvious that Aerys is bad news for everyone, Varys included. I think even a realm under Rhaegar presents problems for the Spider. For one, a king that dabbles in prophecy is risky, if Varys was aware of Rhaegar's deep reading of those scrolls. And besides that, Rhaegar is a man who is not manipulated by his councillors. Varys probably wanted the realm to rest on the shoulders of a young orphan king (perhaps infant Aegon?) that he could whisper to throughout their youth.

There are good ways of achieving stability, and bad ways... We must also consider that Varys is also a man who despises magic intensely, and all those who practice it. He's the type of man who would believe sorcery is a blade without a hilt, that would result only in sorrow. So, if he happened to know Rhaegar was intending to fulfill prophecies... that might make Varys want him around less.

Of course, it's largely speculation. The rebellion and sack of KL set these plans afire. FAegon (as I believe him to be) is his prize piece now, as it seems he has given Dany up for dead or lost.

[Ygrain]

And I somehow thought they both came from Jaime chapters, oops.

Well it seems obvious that Aerys is bad news for everyone, Varys included. I think even a realm under Rhaegar presents problems for the Spider. For one, a king that dabbles in prophecy is risky, if Varys was aware of Rhaegar's deep reading of those scrolls. And besides that, Rhaegar is a man who is not manipulated by his councillors. Varys probably wanted the realm to rest on the shoulders of a young orphan king (perhaps infant Aegon?) that he could whisper to throughout their youth.

There are good ways of achieving stability, and bad ways... We must also consider that Varys is also a man who despises magic intensely, and all those who practice it. He's the type of man who would believe sorcery is a blade without a hilt, that would result only in sorrow. So, if he happened to know Rhaegar was intending to fulfill prophecies... that might make Varys want him around less.

Of course, it's largely speculation. The rebellion and sack of KL set these plans afire. FAegon (as I believe him to be) is his prize piece now, as it seems he has given Dany up for dead or lost.

That's what we know solely from his account, though - it may be true, and it may not.

[Vaxis]

Yes, I've heard some say that this story was a lie, but I don't think so. For one, GRRM would never have allowed D&D to put the sorcerer into the show if he knew that the tale was a farce. He would have notified them after getting a copy of the script. And I otherwise just believe Varys was being truthful and that he hates magic. A refreshing stance on it, since so many others will use it to gain power at every turn.

And sorry, but my browser doesn't let me use the quote tags for some reason.

[Ygrain]

Ah. I didn't know of the show. I'd still take it with a grain of salt as the show differs considerably in some aspects but it does look it more true.

[Vaxis]

Damn, sorry. I didn't mean to spoil anything. Were you planning on watching some other time?

[Alta1r]

Certainly not with certainty - but it does cast a shadow at his motives.

In the bath scene, we have:

He (Aerys) saw traitors everywhere, and Varys was always there to point out any he might have missed.

The one time he should have heeded Varys, and he ignored him.

Jaime doesn't say it explicitely but he clearly believes that Varys was not giving Aerys good advice.

Yeah, it does color Varys' motives a bit, makes you think twice. But I'm still holding out hope that Varys has his own, non-Blackfyre motives. The entire series, sans novellas, has been about all these other families (Starks, Lannisters, Baratheons etc.) and their political motives and machinations. The Targ/BF feud has only really been mentioned in passing, if mentioned at all. I have no interest in the Blackfyres or their struggle with the Targaryens, lol. I like Rhaegar because he seems like a cool character and is involved with the prophecy. Same with Dany - she's just badass. Plus we're invested in those characters after hearing so much about them and getting a POV for Dany. The entire plot being orchestrated by an off-screen Targ/BF feud from before AGoT began would cheapen everything that actually happens in the books that we have read.

And besides that, Rhaegar is a man who is not manipulated by his councillors.

This is a good point. I hadn't thought about that.

[Ygrain]

Damn, sorry. I didn't mean to spoil anything. Were you planning on watching some other time?

Oh, no need to apologize, I'm a spoilers person :-) I will eventually watch it, anyway.

Yeah, it does color Varys' motives a bit, makes you think twice. But I'm still holding out hope that Varys has his own, non-Blackfyre motives. The entire series, sans novellas, has been about all these other families (Starks, Lannisters, Baratheons etc.) and their political motives and machinations. The Targ/BF feud has only really been mentioned in passing, if mentioned at all. I have no interest in the Blackfyres or their struggle with the Targaryens, lol. I like Rhaegar because he seems like a cool character and is involved with the prophecy. Same with Dany - she's just badass. Plus we're invested in those characters after hearing so much about them and getting a POV for Dany. The entire plot being orchestrated by an off-screen Targ/BF feud from before AGoT began would cheapen everything that actually happens in the books that we have read.

I'm not so sure - with the huge amount of background information we are getting, the clues may have been there the whole time and we just don't realize their importance.

[Alta1r]

Oh, no need to apologize, I'm a spoilers person :-) I will eventually watch it, anyway.

I'm not so sure - with the huge amount of background information we are getting, the clues may have been there the whole time and we just don't realize their importance.

I'm sure there are clues hidden here and there, but my point is that GRRM hasn't given us, the readers, any reason to invest in the conflict in any way. Imagine you found out Khal X person you've only heard in passing defeated Khal Y person who you've also only heard of in passing, and the clues to that conflict were there in the books all along. Would you care? On the other hand, he's had us invested in other families for a long time. Why write about literally everyone else if the main players are these things off-screen. Like finding out at the end of FFIX that the main villain you just killed was just a pawn and the REAL villain is someone you've never heard of and have no real interest in except you have to beat him to beat the game. It's an empty gesture. Same with these books. If all the characters have secret identities and the entire plot boils down to secret Targ v. secret BF without GRRM investing us into that conflict in any way, that's just bad writing IMO and would be an extremely disappointing end to the series. For example, if you found out at the end of the series that the Summer Islanders and Skagosi had been feuding for millennia and the Valyrians and Southern Westerosi were SIs and the CotF and Northmen were Skagosi and everything in the books happened because of that feud, I'm guessing you'd be like George, WTF. That's how most of GRRM's readership, who hasn't read the novellas or doesn't find their stories particularly compelling, would feel if the plot came down to a secret, off-screen Targ/BF feud.

[Ygrain]

On the other hand, it has been clear from the beginning that Varys and Illyrio are in cahoots and have some secret plan and motivation, so unravelling this secret can be expected.

[Alta1r]

I hope it's that they just want to get their hands on as much chocolate pudding as they can get. :laugh:

[Ygrain]

I hope it's that they just want to get their hands on as much chocolate pudding as they can get. :laugh:

Who knows what might have been in Aerys' secret stashes? :D

[Alta1r]

Who knows what might have been in Aerys' secret stashes? :D

:lol: :lol:

[Anath]

Frankly, I would have found it more fascinating if the whole Summerhall tragedy was a miscalculation on Aegon V's part, rather than a clever calculation on Aerys'. I mean, we already know Aerys is the incarnation of the Great Other. No need of further proof.

With Aegon, though, the possibilities are more interesting. He was a bright, decent boy with his heart in the right place. This didn't change with his growing up, as Maester Aemon testifies. And it lef him to a very unwise political decision - to let his children marry for love. Ser Barristan only mentions sons but I suppose Rhaelle was allowed, too. And anyway, when Duncan refused to marry her, why not allow her have his thing? At least her lord was a lord paramount.

The resulting mess might have driven Aegon to concerns and fears. We saw how his father was - a man haunted, sad and angry by turns, finally dying in battle to defend the kingdom. We saw the change Rhaenyra underwent. Is it so impossible that the boy we liked from the novellas turned out to be a man trying to remedy his great mistake by restoring to the Targaryens what had been the source of their power - magic?

Since Aegon believed in magic enough to force Aerys and Rhaella to marry because of a prophecy, I'd say he could have tried hatching the eggs.

Hmm, could it also be that after the chaos resulting from his sons' love matches he decided to give Westeros some stability by forcing his grandchildren into an arranged marriage? He died before he could see what this stability turned into. Lucky him.

[Dragon Roast]

Found one reference from a Barristan chapter (The Kingbreaker) in ADwD:

This line is also interesting. Oswell was one of Rhaegar's closest companions and died at the Tower of Joy. If Rhaegar wanted to gather the High Lords to discuss an end to Aerys' reign, sending his trusted friend to ask his brother to hold a Tourney at Harrenhal would be a good way to set things up.

As for Varys, he didn't come to Westeros until after the Defiance of Duskendale, which happened in late 276AL or in the next year. According the GRRM (from the SSM archives) Duskendale was an important event because it came right after a fallout between Tywin and Aerys:

George said that the Duskendale rebellion happened because the Lord of Duskendale demanded certain rights for his citizens and the Duskendale town charter from King Aerys. He stopped paying taxes to demonstrate his anger. George said this was a key moment in Aerys' reign, because until then, he had always worked closely with Tywin to solve the realm's problems, but he and Tywin were no longer seeing eye to eye - so Aerys went off with the Kingsguard and a small force of men, and arrested and executed the Lord of Duskendale.

And why were Aerys and Tywin at odds? Because earlier in 276AL Tywin held a Tourney at Casterly Rock to welcome the King to the West and seal a marraige pack between Cersie and Rhaegar. In AFFC we learn that Aerys turned down the offer with contempt:

"Your father proposed the match," Lady Genna told her, "but Aerys refused to hear of it. ‘You are my most able servant, Tywin,' the king said, ‘but a man does not marry his heir to his servant's daughter.'

And according to Cersie the tourney did not end well:

There had been no final feast, no toasts to celebrate her betrothal to Prince Rhaegar. Only cold silences and chilly looks between the king and her father.

And within a year Aerys was a prisoner at Duskendale. Tywin had an army outside the city ready to sack it and burn it to the ground. The Lord of Duskendale had promised to kill Aerys if he was attacked. A promise that Tywin was determined to help him keep. There was no way for Aerys to survive. Before Tywin was to launch his attack, Barristan the Bold requested a chance to bring the King out by himself. The odds were in favor of failure and Tywin gave Barristan just 24 hours. I'm sure Tywin was surprised when Barristan pulled it off (perhaps paying off this old debt is another reason why the Lannisters forced his "retirement" from the Kingsguard).

When Aerys was back in KL he sent for Varys. He needed a counterweight to Tywin and found one in the eunuch.

It is too easy to blame things on Varys. It seems that in every age a strong Master of Whispers is blamed by the high and low of Westeros for any problems. And Varys can be blamed for some of them, but not all of them. And not until after 277AL.

[complexphoenix]

I don't think the theory of Aerys and Tywin being behind it, holds any water. If they had been caught Tywin would have lost his head, and he is too cautious for something like that. The Reyne-Tarbeck rebellion wasn't until after Summerhall.

A man's level of caution changes with age. Tywin is quite cautious in ASOIAF when he's in his 50s, but he was almost certainly a lot more willing to take risks when he was in his teens. Given the personality aspects we see in him that don't change with age - pride, ambition, subtlety, deception, treachery, and flagrant disregard for institutions - I'd say that a teenage Tywin would be abundantly capable of something like this.

[Dragon Roast]

I don't think the theory of Aerys and Tywin being behind it, holds any water. If they had been caught Tywin would have lost his head, and he is too cautious for something like that. The Reyne-Tarbeck rebellion wasn't until after Summerhall.

Here (in italics) is where I think that you're wrong. According to the wiki, House Tarbeck and House Reyne were extinguished within months of the Tragedy of Summerhall. It is said that Tywin was putting down a rebellion or defiance, but it does not say when the rebellion or defiance began. According to Jamie VI in ASOS, Tywin thought the rebellion began years earlier:

My father. Jaime wondered whether Lord Tywin had received the goat's demand for ransom, with or without his rotted hand. What is a swordsman worth without his sword hand? Half the gold in Casterly Rock? Three hundred dragons? Or nothing? His father had never been unduly swayed by sentiment. Tywin Lannister's own father Lord Tytos had once imprisoned an unruly bannerman, Lord Tarbeck. The redoubtable Lady Tarbeck responded by capturing three Lannisters, including young Stafford, whose sister was betrothed to cousin Tywin. "Send back my lord and love, or these three shall answer for any harm that comes him," she had written to Casterly Rock. Young Tywin suggested his father oblige by sending back Lord Tarbeck in three pieces. Lord Tytos was a gentler sort of lion, however, so Lady Tarbeck won a few more years for her muttonheaded lord, and Stafford wed and bred and blundered on till Oxcross. But Tywin Lannister endured, eternal as Casterly Rock. And now you have a cripple for a son as well as a dwarf, my lord. How you will hate that . . .

Tywin was able to punish House Tarbeck and House Reyne after Aegon V was dead, but the reasons why he wanted to punish them occurred years before. Nobody ever mentions a fresh rebellion beyond the one cited above. If Aegon V had not died, both Houses would still be thriving at the start of ASoIaF. But Egg died and Tywin was free to pay some old debts. Paying your debts may be a Lannister tradition created by Tywin in 260AL.

[NotSoSilentSister]

^Tywin also had less to lose then. I totally buy that this is something he would have considered at this point in his life.

[Fire Eater]

Here (in italics) is where I think that you're wrong. According to the wiki, House Tarbeck and House Reyne were extinguished within months of the Tragedy of Summerhall. It is said that Tywin was putting down a rebellion or defiance, but it does not say when the rebellion or defiance began. According to Jamie VI in ASOS, Tywin thought the rebellion began years earlier:

I doubt Tywin would have gone to Summerhall if he knew there was a rebellion brewing led by his two most powerful bannermen. That would have required him to stay in the Westerlands.

[Dragon Roast]

Just saying, that the new information on TWOIAF makes the case that it was murder and not magic all the stronger.

The fragment of from Archmaester Gyldayn points to a fire caused by pyromancers and wild fire. Egg was searching the world for lore on how to hatch dragon eggs, so he would know that wild fire and pyromancers would have nothing to do with it. Especially considering his brother, he would know that Wild Fire was a useless trick. And yet, according to Gyldayn, wild fire was at the heart of the "magic" Aegon V was using to hatch dragons. I just can't buy that as credible.

From the text, we know that Egg "washed his hands in frustration" over the decision of his son (Jaehaerys) to force his grand-children to marry and so we can assume that Egg was against the idea. We also know that Egg was not happy with what was going on in the Westerlands and before his death he had sent Knights to keep the King's peace. If Egg remained King, Tywin would never had gotten away with his genocide of House Tarbecks and the Reynes. If Egg remained King, Aerys would never sit the IT.

More convinced than ever that it was murder and not magic. This would also fit the narrative structure of the D&E stories and an era of Westeros history where magic was more myth than reality.

[Blazfemur]

Or, in my theorizing, it takes potent valyrian blood to cast a good blood magic ritual, and the intended sacrifice was misled into having the blood of valyria. this would explain how rhaego hatched danaerys' dragons, yet some of melisandre's magic fails (she believes it takes kingsblood, but not all kingsblood, contains the valyrian ingredient). this would also explain spellforging with valyrian steel, if there are spells uttered with the mixing of actual valyrian blood into hardened steel to make it "dragonsteel."

incest, would potenize the valyrian ingredient, while limiting other houses that don't have it from "dilluting" the bloodline.

in conclusion, i think it was a misinterpretation of blood that was the intended sacrifice to hatch a dragon. they clearly didnt have, the proper valyrian pre-requisites in whomever the sacrifice was.

further, ironically enough, a dragon DID in fact hatch, on the day of the Summerhall Tragedy (it IS in fact, Rhaegar Targaryen's birthday, the day of the tragedy). One could debate whether or not their ritual came true in one form or another.

p.s. - Valyrian blood, controls dragons. they're like a beacon to it. the more valyrian, the stronger the bond (targaryen incest would strengthen the bond, this also would explain how brown ben plumm has some affinity to one of Danaerys' dragons)