Why the Red Wedding Hurts EVERYONE...

[Ours if the Fury]

Red Wedding didnt hurt me that much, Robb's death was shocking… but i was more upset about people like SmallJon and Lucas Blackwood then Robb, and people on this forum probably know by now i hate catelyn so i was happy bout her!

[Bright Blue Eyes]

14000? IIRC he had 11000 at the Fords. How many did Robb have coming back from the West? 3-4000? I don't know where Robb would rustle up 40000 unless he was able to return North and gain Northern reinforcements. The loss of around 7500 men, after Roose has already killed off the remaining foot soldiers is a huge blow

Could be 11,000. I'm always mixing up the numbers at the Fords and at the Golden Tooth. Not a major difference though. These 11,000 men were from the western half of the Riverlands only, called up in a hurry. No Darrys, no Whents, no Mootons, nor anybody else from east of Harrenhal. But with Tywin gone from Harrenhal, these lands were available for recruitment once more. Give Robb/Edmure a couple months to sort them out and the number of the Riverlords doubles. At least.

Robb brough most of his army home from the West, losses were light there. 5,000+ out of his initial 6,000, with most losses being the Karstark deserters. That's 20,000 men in the short run, twice that after a couple months of respite. Men directly in the Riverlands, not beyond Moat Cailin. It would give Robb a fighting chance (not a good chance, but a fighting one) and Tywin knows what Robb made out of fighting chances. Against Jaime, he had a disadvantage of 1:3 and curbstomped him. Against Stefford, 1:2 and it was a massacre.

How many losses would the Tyrells stomach? Or his Westermen for that matter. Would some more defeats sway the Dornishmen or the Vale? So, Tywin decided that taking a chance wasn't worth it.

[grand old duke of stark]

I believe the Old Gods and the New will have their vengeance. In a Dream of Spring (aka A Time for Wolves, its original title), the Starks will somehow be triumphant, throne or no. And history will be rewritten to reflect the blasphemy behind the RW. And all Westeros, whether one kingdom or several, will recoil at what the Freys, Boltons, and behind-the-scene mastermind Lannisters have commited. And if these houses are not already outcast, they shall be.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

The thing is, under the normal circumstances that Walder and Roose anticipated there would be no retribution for the Red Wedding. It was believed at the time, that Robb was the last male Stark in existence, killing him would leave the Lannisters/Boltons with the rest of the Starks effectively removing any rallying point the North has. Also, Tywin would have helped strengthen the Freys/Boltons in case they ran into any problems. Post-Tywin, someone else would continue this work. The Northern/River Lords are too broken to do anything about this, and would just bend the knee and swallow their anger. The North would be run by Tyrion/Sansa. There would be no retribution. Things would have been smooth sailing, Walder and Roose realized this

Also, in the eyes of 99% of Westeros only the Freys are responsible not the Boltons or Lannisters. Smallfolk have mixed reactions to the Red Wedding actually, with the sparrows condemning it but the lions "prancing and dancing".

And the funny thing is, guest right hasn't really lost any of it sacredness. In fact if anything this has only strengthened guest right with Lords too afraid to become the next Freys. So I don't think any harsh, public punishment of the Freys is needed to keep guest right sacrosanct. I doubt anyone in power will bother to do this either

Agreed.

Id actually forgotten about the Iron Fleet being at the Moat. In any case my goal was to show that the RW was not necessary at all imo. Would Robbs plan have stood a chance of working had Roose just stood aside? In any case a simpler plan is for Tywin to march to the Riverlands in strength and have the Freys and Boltons abandon him at the last minute

I agree it was not necessary in the sense that Tywin couldn't have won by other means, but it was a swift and easy end to the war that didn't carry any big risks for him himself.

It did give the Lannisters some bad PR, but it should have been manageable if Tywin hadn't died so soon, and a lot of other unfortunate/fortunate for the Starks things hadn't happened. I mean you aren't supposed to rebel against your king, murder all his family members you can get to (including raping the crown princess) and then claiming the throne for yourself, either. The gods probably look down on that. But Robert did it and he got away with it due to being powerful enough, or having enough powerful friends.

[Frey Pie]

Could be 11,000. I'm always mixing up the numbers at the Fords and at the Golden Tooth. Not a major difference though. These 11,000 men were from the western half of the Riverlands only, called up in a hurry. No Darrys, no Whents, no Mootons, nor anybody else from east of Harrenhal. But with Tywin gone from Harrenhal, these lands were available for recruitment once more. Give Robb/Edmure a couple months to sort them out and the number of the Riverlords doubles. At least.

Robb brough most of his army home from the West, losses were light there. 5,000+ out of his initial 6,000, with most losses being the Karstark deserters. That's 20,000 men in the short run, twice that after a couple months of respite. Men directly in the Riverlands, not beyond Moat Cailin. It would give Robb a fighting chance (not a good chance, but a fighting one) and Tywin knows what Robb made out of fighting chances. Against Jaime, he had a disadvantage of 1:3 and curbstomped him. Against Stefford, 1:2 and it was a massacre.

How many losses would the Tyrells stomach? Or his Westermen for that matter. Would some more defeats sway the Dornishmen or the Vale? So, Tywin decided that taking a chance wasn't worth it.

IIRC Darry has been sacked several times, its forces decimated. Mooton also has been sacked, and the Whents are extinct also, with Harrenhal having seen as much action as anywhere else in the war.

I do think Robb can get more men together but if Tywin moves swiftly it wont be more than 20000. And if Roose and Walder time there betrayal well then you have not only a weakened army, but also one who's morale will have dropped significantly.

Given the widespread repercussions of the RW and the precedent it sets, I do feel Tywin has better choices at hand. Yes he will lose more men, but most of them will be the relatively unblooded Roses. IMHO the RW has made the North impossible to rule by either Bolton or the Iron Throne, and for a few generations I can also see general unrest at a moments notice from the Riverlands

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Also, in the eyes of 99% of Westeros only the Freys are responsible not the Boltons or Lannisters. Smallfolk have mixed reactions to the Red Wedding actually, with the sparrows condemning it but the lions "prancing and dancing".

I couldn't disagree more. Half the North seems to know Roose was involved. They may not have proof but the fact that the Boltons were rewarded so handsomely by the Lannisters seems to be enough to cause them all to suspect him. Suspicion isn't proof but to say everyone only thinks its the Frey's is a stretch. Even Tyrion suspected his father had a hand in it when he heard the story. Just because nobody is calling him on it that doesn't mean they don't suspect Tywin. My guess is all the major lords know or suspect the RW was Tywin's doing. Its actually being said so loudly that even the small folk seem to think they were involved, which is why Cersei decides to throw a bunch of Freys under the bus. Even SHE realizes that letting this go unpunished is a bad idea. That doesn't bode well for the Freys and she won't lift a finger to help the Boltons when their name comes up in the story. Not that she ever planned to.

[Frey Pie]

Agreed.

I agree it was not necessary in the sense that Tywin couldn't have won by other means, but it was a swift and easy end to the war that didn't carry any big risks for him himself.

It did give the Lannisters some bad PR, but it should have been manageable if Tywin hadn't died so soon, and a lot of other unfortunate/fortunate for the Starks things hadn't happened. I mean you aren't supposed to rebel against your king, murder all his family members you can get to (including raping the crown princess) and then claiming the throne for yourself, either. The gods probably look down on that. But Robert did it and he got away with it due to being powerful enough, or having enough powerful friends.

Robert never ordered the deaths or rape of any Targs

But was it a quick way to end the war? You still have parts of the Riverlands under arms. The RW guaranteed the Northmen would never be ruled by Bolton or Lannister/Baratheon. Never mind the whole no one knows Bolton was involved-pretty sure unless he kills all his men, word will spread eventually.

It wasn't a "legitimate" way of ending the war, and so there doesn't seem to be any finality to the act. Would the same be said if Tywin was alive? In my opinion yes. Tywin alienates quite a lot of people by his moves. The Dornish and King Landers hate him. Now the Northerners and Riverlanders hate him as well. I would say politically it was very very risky

Playing the Reynes of Castamere strikes me as a Tywinesque move-let everyone know who planned this. Is this a sign perhaps that Tywin has more to do with the planning then previously believed, or was it just Walder being a prick? (I know Tywin denies giving the go ahead for the slaughter but.....its Tywin)

[Frey Pie]

I couldn't disagree more. Half the North seems to know Roose was involved. They may not have proof but the fact that the Boltons were rewarded so handsomely by the Lannisters seems to be enough to cause them all to suspect him. Suspicion isn't proof but to say everyone only thinks its the Frey's is a stretch. Even Tyrion suspected his father had a hand in it when he heard the story. Just because nobody is calling him on it that doesn't mean they don't suspect Tywin. My guess is all the major lords know or suspect the RW was Tywin's doing. Its actually being said so loudly that even the small folk seem to think they were involved, which is why Cersei decides to throw a bunch under the bus. Even SHE realizes that letting this go unpunished is a bad idea. That doesn't bode well for the Freys and she won't lift a finger to help the Boltons when their name comes up in the story. Not that she ever planned to.

Agreed. All the Lords know there was both Bolton and Lannister hands in this pot, unless there thick.

Those who feign ignorance do just that and ignore what is plain. Smallfolk in the North and Riverlands definitely care also

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

And you don't think the Frey's who are being questioned by the BWB aren't screaming that it was the Lannisters plan? The people in the Riverlands seem to trust and grudgingly respect the BWB. Don't think for a second they aren't telling everyone that it wasn't just the Freys, but the Boltons and Lannisters as well. We only get to see one interrogation and ?Ryman? sung like a canary almost immediately.

EDIT- It was Merritt Frey who was interrogated by the BWB after going to pay the ransom.

[Frey Pie]

And you don't think the Frey's who are being questioned by the BWB aren't screaming that it was the Lannisters plan? The people in the Riverlands seem to trust and grudgingly respect the BWB. Don't think for a second they aren't telling everyone that it wasn't just the Freys, but the Boltons and Lannisters as well. We only get to see one interrogation and ?Ryman? sung like a canary almost immediately.

:agree:

Worst kept secret in Westeros

[Bright Blue Eyes]

IIRC Darry has been sacked several times, its forces decimated. Mooton also has been sacked, and the Whents are extinct also, with Harrenhal having seen as much action as anywhere else in the war.

I do think Robb can get more men together but if Tywin moves swiftly it wont be more than 20000. And if Roose and Walder time there betrayal well then you have not only a weakened army, but also one who's morale will have dropped significantly.

Given the widespread repercussions of the RW and the precedent it sets, I do feel Tywin has better choices at hand. Yes he will lose more men, but most of them will be the relatively unblooded Roses. IMHO the RW has made the North impossible to rule by either Bolton or the Iron Throne, and for a few generations I can also see general unrest at a moments notice from the Riverlands

Yes, Darry was decimated and the House is extinct, as are the Whents, but the land and (most of) the people are still there. They won't yield the same number as before, nor the same quality, but they will yield a sizeable bunch of men nevertheless. That they were sacked is the reason I expect Edmure to double his forces instead of tripling or quadrupling them. Which would have been possible otherwise.

If Tywin moves swiftly, he can send two separate armies, each 20,000 strong. Robb could beat them individually with his own 20,000 men. Tywin had the advantage, but it wasn't an autowin. The Northern Lords and Riverlords in Robb's councils in Storm were more optimistic than the Westermen in the last Lannister council in Game, where they wanted peace at all costs and couldn't get it. Fortunes have already shifted more than five times during the Wot5K, another shift could cost the Lannisters everything.

While I agree with you that Tywin had better options, I can understand why Tywin choose to proceed as he did.

[Pod The Impaler]

I would add something else here: the Red Wedding makes any kind of political agreement more difficult to achieve, be it marriage alliances or peace treaties. How does anyone trust that Tywin, Bolton, or Frey will keep their word on ANYTHING if they’re willing to violate the oldest and most sacred customs of Westeros, one of the few taboos that protect people in a dangerous world? In our history, we put this custom as the responsibility of not just the gods but the King of the Gods (Zeus Xenios, Odin the one-eyed wanderer who shows up unknown at the door, etc.) in order to make sure it wasn’t violated, because once you’ve violated it you’re back to war of all-against-all.

And (as I’ll discuss in my upcoming essay in the next Tower of the Hand e-book) look at the results: Tywin’s legacy crumbled with his death and no one trusts or esteems the Lannisters at all; Bolton faces a rebellion inside of a few months of achieving his goal; Walder’s family is cursed by the gods, murdered at will, and universally hated even in King’s Landing. It’s the ultimate short-term gain for long-term loss.

And that custom keeps people alive in the thousands or even the millions. It doesn’t do this directly, but knowing that no one would dare molest you while you’re their guest is what lets lords who are bitter rivals or outright enemies meet and negotiate. Guest Right helps stop wars.

Walder Frey and Tywin Lannister may not have killed that tool of diplomacy, but they’ve certainly grievously wounded it. No one’s sure if they can count on that protection anymore. No one with any political awareness really believes the Freys’ outlandish stories (Robb and his men turned into wolfmen and attacked the guests!) so they see a lord who blatantly broke Guest Right and GOT AWAY WITH IT. He was actually rewarded.

And THAT is why the punishment/fallout for the RW, among the Northerners, Riverlords, and small folk has been so severe. Why it HAS to be severe. People instinctively realize that with the RW, the Frey's, the Bolton's, and the Lannister's for their own selfish and petty purposes have damaged one of the most basic protections Westeros has-something that stands between the kingdom and all out chaos and anarchy, with free for all killing.

The ONLY way, that the taboo of Guest Right can be saved for the future, is if the guilty parties are made into a cautionary tale. They have to be wiped out, so that no would be food enough to violate the custom again. I don't want innocent family members, (and they exist even among the Frey's) harmed, but it's hard to deny not only the justice but absolute necessity of the Frey's being driven from power, from the Twins, and those who conspired in the RW being slaughtered without mercy.

Since we're several pages in already, I'll just respond to the OP with a "YES".

Leaving aside the mystical stuff, I have studied the laws of war, and they always come down to something like this. These rules exist not because people are supposed to do good, but because of their capacity to be bad.

Cross these ethical lines and soon enough everything turns to bloody chaos - everyone against everyone, no atrocity held back, escalation to the point where everyone's destruction is mutually assured.

If you torture, you shall be tortured. If your armies rape and pillage and slaughter non-combatants, your own people will be subjected to the same. If you engage in treachery, you shall find treachery in all those who surround you. And if you show no mercy you shall receive none. No person is so mighty that they can fight everyone else and win, nor any regime or empire. Valar morghulis.

In ASOIAF, who would ever trust a Frey, or Bolton, or Lannister, or show any of them the least bit of mercy now ? Who does not consider them the enemies of all others? Can any of those houses or their loyalists trust that the person next to them is not going to do the same to them ? Indeed, why should anyone under them stay their hand when it has proven so profitable to simply murder them and take what they took from others ? The lessons taught by the shedding of blood are never truly forgotten.

Those not outraged by the RW will serve up the same treachery to them and each other, and those who are outraged by it will stop at nothing to take vengeance upon them. And neither will feel sorry for any of the Lannisters, Boltons, or Freys that it happens to. Once they are all dead, then maybe it stops - maybe.

[Chaircat Meow]

The RW helped Stannis a lot as it created a power vaccum in the north he could fill.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

Robert never ordered the deaths or rape of any Targs

But was it a quick way to end the war? You still have parts of the Riverlands under arms. The RW guaranteed the Northmen would never be ruled by Bolton or Lannister/Baratheon. Never mind the whole no one knows Bolton was involved-pretty sure unless he kills all his men, word will spread eventually.

It wasn't a "legitimate" way of ending the war, and so there doesn't seem to be any finality to the act. Would the same be said if Tywin was alive? In my opinion yes. Tywin alienates quite a lot of people by his moves. The Dornish and King Landers hate him. Now the Northerners and Riverlanders hate him as well. I would say politically it was very very risky

Playing the Reynes of Castamere strikes me as a Tywinesque move-let everyone know who planned this. Is this a sign perhaps that Tywin has more to do with the planning then previously believed, or was it just Walder being a prick? (I know Tywin denies giving the go ahead for the slaughter but.....its Tywin)

He condoned the acts and rewarded the lord responsible by making his daughter queen, and kept his son in his kingsguard (eventually making him Warden too). In the eyes of an outsider that should tie Robert Baratheon closer to the Targaryen murders than Tywin is to the Red Wedding.

Pretty small parts of the Riverlands, though. Some castles with their garrisons and then a militia movement of unknown numbers but that doesn't actually control any territory. The North was calm until Stannis came there, and as of late ADWD most lords are still on Bolton's side. The loss of fake Arya and the arrival of Rickon will surely change all that, but that's just bad luck for Roose.

I don't know about the Reynes of Castamere bit... it's a good question. It could be as you say, but it could also have been Walder and Roose trying to implicate Tywin on purpose so that he couldn't abandon them afterwards, or just them taking their own initiative thinking that he would like it or something. Look at the "Jaime Lannister sends his regards" thing, which wasn't how Jaime intended it at all.

[Frey Pie]

Yes, Darry was decimated and the House is extinct, as are the Whents, but the land and (most of) the people are still there. They won't yield the same number as before, nor the same quality, but they will yield a sizeable bunch of men nevertheless. That they were sacked is the reason I expect Edmure to double his forces instead of tripling or quadrupling them. Which would have been possible otherwise.

If Tywin moves swiftly, he can send two separate armies, each 20,000 strong. Robb could beat them individually with his own 20,000 men. Tywin had the advantage, but it wasn't an autowin. The Northern Lords and Riverlords in Robb's councils in Storm were more optimistic than the Westermen in the last Lannister council in Game, where they wanted peace at all costs and couldn't get it. Fortunes have already shifted more than five times during the Wot5K, another shift could cost the Lannisters everything.

While I agree with you that Tywin had better options, I can understand why Tywin choose to proceed as he did.

I'd say Tywin could field nearly three forces of 20000 each.

I understand why he is loath to fight Robb face to face but I think the Frey and Bolton cards could have been used for a far more palatable plan, which wouldn't alienate over half the realm so violently

Tywins plan made his new Kingdom one of distrust, betrayal and unrest. With the feelings in the capital between Mace and Tywin, how long until one of the flowers makes a jibe about Tywin and weddings? And how will Tywin receive this? His plan made the realm more brittle then ever. Contrast this with a potentially costly, but complete win under arms which could temper the new alliance in blood, and be made out as the glorious win of the Throne against the rebels.

[Chaircat Meow]

Where does Tywin deny giving the go ahead? Did I miss that bit. In SoS he basically says he knew all about it, and, aside, from Cat being killed, it went as planned (and we can have a good guess why that was - Jingebell/madness etc).

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Yeah, the Lannisters won but at the cost of their already shaky reputation. The RW was the act of petty, greedy, and desperate men.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Where does Tywin deny giving the go ahead? Did I miss that bit. In SoS he basically says he knew all about it, and, aside, from Cat being killed, it went as planned (and we can have a good guess why that was - Jingebell/madness etc).

He admits it to Tyrion who he knows won't likely repeat it. In that conversation he all but admits needing to let the Freys take all the blame. Just because we don't actually hear him deny it doesn't mean he was dumb enough to admit it in public.

[Frey Pie]

He condoned the acts and rewarded the lord responsible by making his daughter queen, and kept his son in his kingsguard (eventually making him Warden too). In the eyes of an outsider, that should tie Robert Baratheon closer to the Targaryen murders than Tywin is to the Red Wedding.

Pretty small parts of the Riverlands, though. Some castles with their garrisons and then a militia movement of unknown numbers but that doesn't actually control any territory. The North was calm until Stannis came there, and as of late ADWD most lords are still on Bolton's side. The loss of fake Arya and the arrival of Rickon will surely change all that, but that's just bad luck for Roose.

I don't know about the Reynes of Castamere bit... it's a good question. It could be as you say, but it could also have been Walder and Roose trying to implicate Tywin on purpose so that he couldn't abandon them afterwards, or just them taking their own initiative thinking that he would like it or something. Look at the "Jaime Lannister sends his regards" thing, which wasn't how Jaime intended it at all.

A militia getting stronger and stronger. The last time Edmure was in charge he rustled up 11000 swords including 3000 knights in a short amount of time. Daven Lannister in Dance assembles I believe between 1500-3000 Riverlanders with the full support of the King, and all the time in the world. That speaks volumes to me

Bolton has only ever had the Dustins and Ryswells for allies and I have my doubts on Lady Dustin. If he wasn't ignored until a Stark heir came along, he would have been ousted. Nobody likes him or his son and nobody will listen to his rule. Lip service is the most Bolton would get

[Chaircat Meow]

He admits it to Tyrion who he knows won't likely repeat it. In that conversation he all but admits needing to let the Freys take all the blame. Just because we don't actually hear him deny it doesn't mean he was dumb enough to admit it in public.

What? I was talking about the Tyrion conversation.