Why the Red Wedding Hurts EVERYONE...

[Frey Pie]

What? I was talking about the Tyrion conversation.

IIRC he says pretty much that it was to have been an arrow or a hunting accident.

Basically he didn't give the go ahead to go batshit insane

[Chaircat Meow]

IIRC he says pretty much that it was to have been an arrow or a hunting accident.

Basically he didn't give the go ahead to go batshit insane

No, he said it was to be an arrow at the wedding feast. As it turned out it was a bolt and then a sword, but I think we can forgive Tywin that little slip. There was no hunting accident ever mentioned.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

Where does Tywin deny giving the go ahead? Did I miss that bit. In SoS he basically says he knew all about it, and, aside, from Cat being killed, it went as planned (and we can have a good guess why that was - Jingebell/madness etc).

I took it as him saying that he gave the go ahead for an assassination of Robb, by an archer, not the massacre of all his bannermen and his entire army.

A militia getting stronger and stronger. The last time Edmure was in charge he rustled up 11000 swords including 3000 knights in a short amount of time. Daven Lannister in Dance assembles I believe between 1500-3000 Riverlanders with the full support of the King, and all the time in the world. That speaks volumes to me

Bolton has only ever had the Dustins and Ryswells for allies and I have my doubts on Lady Dustin. If he wasn't ignored until a Stark heir came along, he would have been ousted. Nobody likes him or his son and nobody will listen to his rule. Lip service is the most Bolton would get

Yeah, but that's with Tywin dead and Crazy Cersei having control over the Iron Throne instead. The Brotherhood might not have grown so strong if there had been better measures taken against it. Also the Riverlanders should have hated the Lannisters even if there hadn't been a Red Wedding, because of all their crimes there.

At least the Karstarks too. What houses like Flints or the Rills etc stand isn't made clear either. Also as long as he kept his control over Moat Cailin he could have brought reinforcements up from the South if needed. Now that won't happen because the realm there is falling apart, but...

[Ramsay Gimp]

Bolton has only ever had the Dustins and Ryswells for allies and I have my doubts on Lady Dustin. If he wasn't ignored until a Stark heir came along, he would have been ousted. Nobody likes him or his son and nobody will listen to his rule. Lip service is the most Bolton would get

Are you going to start doing the whole "Roose and Tywin are stupid" thing again?

If no Stark heir came along and Stannis was neutralized, Roose would rule the North. Unforseeable events have led to his shitty situation now (it took literal magic to get "Arya" out of Winterfell). Ramsay is a different matter, of course, but it seems Roose doesn't really care what happens to the Bastard after he's gone.

People seem to have blind faith that all bad guys will be punished, good guys will always win, despite everything that's happened so far in the series.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Yeah, the Lannisters won but at the cost of their already shaky reputation. The RW was the act of petty, greedy, and desperate men.

Roose Bolton is not petty or desperate

[Ramsay Gimp]

It did give the Lannisters some bad PR, but it should have been manageable if Tywin hadn't died so soon, and a lot of other unfortunate/fortunate for the Starks things hadn't happened. I mean you aren't supposed to rebel against your king, murder all his family members you can get to (including raping the crown princess) and then claiming the throne for yourself, either. The gods probably look down on that. But Robert did it and he got away with it due to being powerful enough, or having enough powerful friends.

I think people overestimate how horrified the general population is about the Red Wedding. Yes, when they hear about it they recoil. But it isn't anywwhere near the front of the minds of the Martells, Tyrells, or even Lords Declarant.

[Salinda]

I couldn't disagree more. Half the North seems to know Roose was involved. They may not have proof but the fact that the Boltons were rewarded so handsomely by the Lannisters seems to be enough to cause them all to suspect him. Suspicion isn't proof but to say everyone only thinks its the Frey's is a stretch. Even Tyrion suspected his father had a hand in it when he heard the story. Just because nobody is calling him on it that doesn't mean they don't suspect Tywin. My guess is all the major lords know or suspect the RW was Tywin's doing. Its actually being said so loudly that even the small folk seem to think they were involved, which is why Cersei decides to throw a bunch of Freys under the bus. Even SHE realizes that letting this go unpunished is a bad idea. That doesn't bode well for the Freys and she won't lift a finger to help the Boltons when their name comes up in the story. Not that she ever planned to.

Half the North? Only Manderly and Glover it seems to me. Only a select few people (like Blackfish who is an intelligent man and was warring with Tywin) suspects that he was behind it. There is nobody else who suspects Tywin's involvement. Certain sparrows in winesinks around King's Landing believe that the Crown is responsible, but it doesn't extend any further than that. Qyburn suggested that they kill Freys, but Cersei was just in favor of letting the new Lord of the Crossing after Walder dies, naming some of his family members, culprits in it

And if Cersei is still in power and a situation arose in which the Boltons needed help, of course she'd help them. They are the Lannisters hands in the North. Of course she isn't helping them now, but that's not because she doesn't want to, it's because she can't.

[Chaircat Meow]

I took it as him saying that he gave the go ahead for an assassination of Robb, by an archer, not the massacre of all his bannermen and his entire army.

It could be read that way, but he doesn't really say that tbh. And really, he can hardly have expected the Freys to have shot Robb at the feast and to have avoided a blood bath.

[Frey Pie]

I took it as him saying that he gave the go ahead for an assassination of Robb, by an archer, not the massacre of all his bannermen and his entire army.

Yeah, but that's with Tywin dead and Crazy Cersei having control over the Iron Throne instead. The Brotherhood might not have grown so strong if there had been better measures taken against it. Also the Riverlanders should have hated the Lannisters even if there hadn't been a Red Wedding, because of all their crimes there.

At least the Karstarks too. What houses like Flints or the Rills etc stand isn't made clear either. Also as long as he kept his control over Moat Cailin he could have brought reinforcements up from the South if needed. Now that won't happen because the realm there is falling apart, but...

Nobody could have done a better job at pacifying the Riverlands then Jaime IMHO-he did brilliantly. Perhaps the fear factor of Tywin would stop some people joining a rebellious side however

The Reeds are staunch Stark men. A garrison at the Moat will likely end the same way as the Ironborn garrison. And the North is so huge resistance can always find somewhere to go. Its worth mentioning the real heir of House Karstark, Alys, stayed loyal to the Starks (with Harrion dead/in jail)

[Ramsay Gimp]

It could be read that way, but he doesn't really say that tbh. And really, he can hardly have expected the Freys to have shot Robb at the feast and to have avoided a blood bath.

Exactly. Even poison would have led to a massacre. If Robb was going to die at the Twins, his men had to as well

[Frey Pie]

Are you going to start doing the whole "Roose and Tywin are stupid" thing again?

If no Stark heir came along and Stannis was neutralized, Roose would rule the North. Unforseeable events have led to his shitty situation now (it took literal magic to get "Arya" out of Winterfell). Ramsay is a different matter, of course, but it seems Roose doesn't really care what happens to the Bastard after he's gone.

People seem to have blind faith that all bad guys will be punished, good guys will always win, despite everything that's happened so far in the series.

Nope, not in the slightest.

My thinking is that Roose had 3500 men at the Twins. How many of these will talk? How many will see fArya for what she is? Will the Reeds bend the knee? The Mormonts? The Mountain Clans? Manderly? I seriously have my doubts. Does Roose have the men and the ability to establish his rule over so many? I also have my doubts. When lords find out that he's lied to them, killed their men etc etc, will he gain popular support? Will he even gain martial superiority? Once again I doubt it. Could I see Ramsay boasting about killing Hornwood, Tallhearts etc etc? Yup. Will everyone take all this sitting down? I once again doubt it

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Half the North? Only Manderly and Glover it seems to me. Only a select few people (like Blackfish who is an intelligent man and was warring with Tywin) suspects that he was behind it. There is nobody else who suspects Tywin's involvement. Certain sparrows in winesinks around King's Landing believe that the Crown is responsible, but it doesn't extend any further than that. Qyburn suggested that they kill Freys, but Cersei was just in favor of letting the new Lord of the Crossing after Walder dies, naming some of his family members, culprits in it

And if Cersei is still in power and a situation arose in which the Boltons needed help, of course she'd help them. They are the Lannisters hands in the North. Of course she isn't helping them now, but that's not because she doesn't want to, it's because she can't.

Manderly and Glover are the ones who actually speak up. But that doesn't mean the rest of them don't suspect. To deny that anybody thinks Tywin is involved just doesn't make sense to me. And as far as the small folk are concerned it was Cersei's henchman Qyburn who says this but the fact that he's bringing it to her attention at all says something. If it was just a few people that should be ignored why even bring it up in the first place. Clearly it was something that required her attention.

[Ser Lepus]

True, but the Freys do have a plan - they plan to claim that they did not violate guest right, Robb was the one who started the attack during the feast. In ADWD, they tell Manderly this and he pretends to believe it. He doesn't really because he knew Robb, but that pool of people is shrinking, and with persistent propaganda, the issue can be confused enough that the institution if guest right can still be preserved without Freys being wiped out.

They shouldn't add the werewolf stuff, if they care being believed. And anyways, why should Robb attack them and lose their swords? Their tale makes no sense.

I think the implication with guest right is more a divine intervention, or the perhaps the unfounded fear of such

If it's a purely man made social construct, then it was irrelevant a long time ago, when pragmatic men like Tywin Lannister, Walder Frey, their forefathers etc., consolidated power

As the OP mentioned, the westerosi need some rules, or otherwise everything goes to Hell.

The Roman Empire fell when the soldiers started to kill their generals and emperors because they were afraid of fighting a foe too scary, or were tired of a siege too long, or they were tired of marching and wished to take a rest, or the wine they had with their supper wasn't too good...basically any reason was good enough...and after killing their emperor they usually chose a general as new emperor without taking into account that man's opinion on the subject, and the new emperor had to lavish them with gifts to avoid being killed.

The Ottoman Empire? It didn't fall, but every time the Sultan died, the heir had all of his brothers killed (and they could be many dozens), unless they were faster and killed him first, or escaped and started a civil war. Sometimes the Sultan killed the strongest among his children to protect his heir and make the transition easier. Sometimes the princes escaped and rebelled against their father to avoid being killed.

Take the Popes during the Renaissance. They pushed too far, they lost the respect of the people, and they had Luther maker half of Europe turning against them AND Emperor Charles I of Spain and V of Germany, the greastest champion of Catholicism, burning Rome.

You break the rules too much, and society goes to Hell.

And remember what Varys told Tyrion. Power is a shadow. At the end of the day, people obey kings or lords because they think they are supposed to do so. The stuff Tywin and Roose Bolton and Walder Frey pulled not only will make people think that all oaths, vows, conventants, contracts..etc. they could make aren't worth shit, it could even make people think that "hey, if Frey can kill his liege and king and get away with it, why not me too?" and them we have the Fall of Rome.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

It could be read that way, but he doesn't really say that tbh. And really, he can hardly have expected the Freys to have shot Robb at the feast and to have avoided a blood bath.

Exactly. Even poison would have led to a massacre. If Robb was going to die at the Twins, his men had to as well

True... I reread the entire conversation and it looks like he was in on it all. I remembered that arrow line as being something he said defensively when asked about his involvement the Red Wedding, but I was wrong.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Are you going to start doing the whole "Roose and Tywin are stupid" thing again?

If no Stark heir came along and Stannis was neutralized, Roose would rule the North. Unforseeable events have led to his shitty situation now (it took literal magic to get "Arya" out of Winterfell). Ramsay is a different matter, of course, but it seems Roose doesn't really care what happens to the Bastard after he's gone.

People seem to have blind faith that all bad guys will be punished, good guys will always win, despite everything that's happened so far in the series.

Really? It took the best luck in the world for the Lannisters to even be around at this point. Cersei's insane plan to kill Robert actually working. Edmure ignoring Robb's orders and letting Tywin get back to King's Landing. Tywin showing up in King's Landing just in the nick of time. Stannis' magic smoke monster killing Renly and sending the Tyrells to the Lannisters, just in the nick of time. I hear what your saying but to pick out that ONE instance isn't kosher. If it wasn't for magic and freaky luck the Lannisters would be long gone and Roose wouldn't even be in the position he's in.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Manderly and Glover are the ones who actually speak up. But that doesn't mean the rest of them don't suspect. To deny that anybody thinks Tywin is involved just doesn't make sense to me. And as far as the small folk are concerned it was Cersei's henchman Qyburn who says this but the fact that he's bringing it to her attention at all says something. If it was just a few people that should be ignored why even bring it up in the first place. Clearly it was something that required her attention.

Even if people suspect or know of Tywin's involvement, so what? All of those killed at the RW were his openly declared enemies anyway. They already wanted his head on a stick, so I'm failing to see what he had to lose by killing them "unfairly"

[Salinda]

Manderly and Glover are the ones who actually speak up. But that doesn't mean the rest of them don't suspect. To deny that anybody thinks Tywin is involved just doesn't make sense to me. And as far as the small folk are concerned it was Cersei's henchman Qyburn who says this but the fact that he's bringing it to her attention at all says something. If it was just a few people that should be ignored why even bring it up in the first place. Clearly it was something that required her attention.

We don't really have much proof that they suspect... all their hostility is directed towards the Freys. And from most people's perspectives, they see that the Freys were getting revenge for Robb's broken oath, and assume that's all it is as the house wasn't much loved before the RW. They don't really see Tywin's hand behind it, unless they just dislike him and want to attribute it to him on suspicion alone (like Blackfish). The average lord who lost some family at the RW is more concerned with the Freys. And Qyburn also brings up a lot of other irrelevant things like one of Arianne's friends getting married to Lord Estermont and that puppet show. He just thought it was an interesting tidbit I guess.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Even if people suspect or know of Tywin's involvement, so what? All of those killed at the RW were his openly declared enemies anyway. They already wanted his head on a stick, so I'm failing to see what he had to lose by killing them "unfairly"

So what is he said 99% of the people in Westeros think it was the Freys alone. And I pointed out that it wasn't close to being true.

[Chaircat Meow]

I feel people badly overestimate the impact of the breach of guest rite on the lannister regime.

Yes, after the RW, most northern lords, and most riverlords are very unhappy and ideally want revenge. But just ask yourself, would the situation be very much improved if Tywin had managed to defeat the northern kingdom by more conventional means? Would the north readily submit to its king being executed and a lannister being parachuted into WF, or to the rule of the Boltons, if they turned their cloaks during the war? Unlikely.

Doing things the RW route certainly made the disdain and anger for the new overlords worse, but the riverlands and the north were always going to present big problems, however the war was won. There were strong reasons to think the problems containable if the government in KL was conducted properly. The immediate priority was just to win, and the RW went a long way to achieving this.

Fighting another war in the riverlands presented its fair share of problems too. The main lannister army had been in the field a long time, winter was coming and much of the harvest was gone. The Tyrells probably couldn't deploy all their vast forces in the riverlands anyway. Moreover, Robb Stark was not known for giving Tywin the decisive battle he craved, and, unless stopped very quickly, would return to the north, leaving the lannisters to conduct a succession of sieges.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Really? It took the best luck in the world for the Lannisters to even be around at this point. Cersei's insane plan to kill Robb actually working. Edmure ignoring Robb's orders and letting Tywin get back to King's Landing. Tywin showing up in King's Landing just in the nick of time. Stannis' magic smoke monster killing Renly and sending the Tyrells to the Lannisters, just in the nick of time. I hear what your saying but to pick out that ONE instance isn't kosher. If it wasn't for magic and freaky luck the Lannisters would be long gone and Roose wouldn't even be in the position he's in.

Oh I agree that the Lannisters have had great luck. But Tywin has also made pretty much all the right moves in the WO5K. I can only think of some minor military blunders on his part, and no political ones. Robb, on the other hand, had some bad luck that he compounded dramatically with bad decisions

But my main point was about whether Roose was inevitably going to get removed from Northern rulership, as Frey Pie claimed. I was just saying if it weren't for some unfortunate developments, Roose would likely have managed.