Sansa's Opening Move

[Lady Howell]

I think this all really depends on the military forces Cersei is likely to have at her disposal and what other enemies she is having to face. For some reason, I am just not seeing Cersei having the kind forces to invade the Vale, which is probably highly defensible given its terrain and the bad weather.

Also, I am not sure taking the Vale's 20,000 troops South is the best move, particularly when particular factions in the South are destroying each other. It seems that a few thousand troops would be more decisive in the North.

I am not sure though. GRRM will have to give us a little more information, I guess.

You make good points, but still Cersei is the most viable threat to a campaign in the North because she could easily send the Boltons back up, not to mention the Freys. I say, if she is going to go North rather than South, at least cut Cersei's ties to her largest source of power outside King's Landing, the Westerlands. As I said, it is suspiciously convenient that the next male in line for the Lannister seat, Lancel, is in the Riverlands, right within the reach of Sansa if she were to march the Vale forces through the Riverlands (something she'd have to do to get North). A quick kidnapping and detour, and Sansa installs Lancel, who by the mere fact of having a penis and actually being there will get the people to accept him as their Lord Paramount, and Cersei will be usurpered. Cut off the IT from the Lannister gold, and they are signicantly weakened and perhaps Sansa could move North without worrying about Cersei too much.

But still, a dead enemy is always safer than a penniless one.

[OldGimletEye]

You make good points, but still Cersei is the most viable threat to a campaign in the North because she could easily send the Boltons back up, not to mention the Freys. I say, if she is going to go North rather than South, at least cut Cersei's ties to her largest source of power outside King's Landing, the Westerlands. As I said, it is suspiciously convenient that the next male in line for the Lannister seat, Lancel, is in the Riverlands, right within the reach of Sansa if she were to march the Vale forces through the Riverlands (something she'd have to do to get North). A quick kidnapping and detour, and Sansa installs Lancel, who by the mere fact of having a penis and actually being there will get the people to accept him as their Lord Paramount, and Cersei will be usurpered. Cut off the IT from the Lannister gold, and they are signicantly weakened and perhaps Sansa could move North without worrying about Cersei too much.

But still, a dead enemy is always safer than a penniless one.

Yeah, I don't think Sansa will stayed holed up in the Vale, doing nothing. I could see her keeping about 8,000 or 7,000 troops in the Vale and then sending the rest of her forces into the Riverlands to deal with her family's enemies there. Her forces in the Riverlands could then pose a threat to the West, which Cersei would have to contend with.

I guess what I am trying to say is that I don't think Sansa would march straight to KL. I am thinking one of Sansa's advantages over Cersei is that Sansa will keep a cooler head and be less prone to making blunders because of a desire for vengeance.

But, again, a lot of this depends on the situation when Sansa gains control in the Vale, which I hope does happen.

[RoamingRonin]

Sansa will seduce Harry the Heir in the next book. She's suffered enough sexual torments during her story arc (Tyrion, Joffrey, Dontos, Marillion) but it's not over for her. We know Harry has one daughter and another child on the way. The dude likes to get down and Lady Anya has already said she won't force him to marry. This is where Cersei's tutelage will come into play (“Tears are not a woman's only weapon. You've got another one between your legs, and you'd best learn to use it.").

I don't think she truly likes LF and is not as enthralled as he thinks. She's kissing him like she kissed Dontos. He's just another Florian the Fool for her. She might not be too kind if he attempts to bed her but I don't think he will. His plans involve her being a maiden. If there is a marriage (please no more weddings...) then he might try afterwards.

Her supernatural abilities will have to awaken as well. I don't think she will truly become a player in the game, however. I have this crackpot theory she will eventually warg a bird and never return to her body. She has suffered a lot and flying off in a bird would make for a good song. She'd like to be remembered in a tragic song, I think.

[Cas Stark]

Sansa will seduce Harry the Heir in the next book. Her supernatural abilities will have to awaken as well. I don't think she will truly become a player in the game, however. I have this crackpot theory she will eventually warg a bird and never return to her body.

That's kind of crackpot, but you would think that something will come of all the bird imagery one way or the other. I don't see her commanding an army, there is nothing about her after 5 books to show any type of latent 'warrior queen' streak, barely any evidence she will become a player as in creating her own LF like strategies. She's got the hairnet, she's got the bird imagery and she's got LF giving her more and more ammunition to use against him if she ever figures out he's a bad guy and not her friend in any way.

[Winnief]

I am thinking one of Sansa's advantages over Cersei is that Sansa will keep a cooler head and be less prone to making blunders because of a desire for vengeance.

That is certainly true. I just don't see Sansa going the military route-I can see her taking some kind of political/diplomatic strategy that hurts the Lannister's though, and sadly, the idea that Cersei could be out-maneuvered by a traumatized teenager does not seem unlikely in the least.

[OldGimletEye]

That is certainly true. I just don't see Sansa going the military route-I can see her taking some kind of political/diplomatic strategy that hurts the Lannister's though, and sadly, the idea that Cersei could be out-maneuvered by a traumatized teenager does not seem unlikely in the least.

Well, no, I don't think anybody sees Sansa becoming a female Frederick The Great. But, if she becomes a political player, then she will have to obtain at least some understanding of military affairs, even if basic. And with decent advisors, I think she can learn. But, no I don't think she is going to be any kind of field commander.

Sansa as a potential military leader usually gets compared to Dany. But, Dany didn't exactly graduate from West Point followed by an assignment to the Infantry War School, followed by the command of a rifle company and then on to The General Command and Staff College. I don't think anybody would have thought she would be leading armies when she was 12 or 13 years old. But yet she is.

[ladyinblack]

Hi

A couple of points here....it is winter The road to the Vale is impassable. Lancel is in Kings Landing w the Swords and Stars-he gave up everything for the faith. Sansa as a warrior queen-don't see it but love surprises

Cersei has other problems to deal with now other than Sansa

but I do hope Sansa develops as a more saavy character so many times I thought that she was getting there,,,,but then she would do somethng really stupid. She is learning though and life has not been kind to any of the Starks

[Cas Stark]

Well, no, I don't think anybody sees Sansa becoming a female Frederick The Great. But, if she becomes a political player, then she will have to obtain at least some understanding of military affairs, even if basic. And with decent advisors, I think she can learn. But, no I don't think she is going to be any kind of field commander.

Sansa as a potential military leader usually gets compared to Dany. But, Dany didn't exactly graduate from West Point followed by an assignment to the Infantry War School, followed by the command of a rifle company and then on to The General Command and Staff College. I don't think anybody would have thought she would be leading armies when she was 12 or 13 years old. But yet she is.

She was married to a war lord though and her adopted people make their living at war and pillage. And her main advisor was a knight who fought in Robert's Rebellion and now Selmy, the greatest warrior in Westeros. So, she had a few more basic building blocks than Sansa, who has none.

[RoamingRonin]

That's kind of crackpot, but you would think that something will come of all the bird imagery one way or the other. I don't see her commanding an army, there is nothing about her after 5 books to show any type of latent 'warrior queen' streak, barely any evidence she will become a player as in creating her own LF like strategies. She's got the hairnet, she's got the bird imagery and she's got LF giving her more and more ammunition to use against him if she ever figures out he's a bad guy and not her friend in any way.

I'd be disappointed if GRRM doesn't have her use her abilities at all. But I wouldn't be surprised either.

I could see Sansa being a more adept player if the five year leap occurred. But she's couldn't engage Miranda without blurting out "Jon Snow!?" and almost blew her cover. She's still a bit green. She's an expert at courtesy and manipulating men, but she's awful when one on one with a female player.

I argue against Sansa being a military leader because that's not her story. Her story has always been court intrigue and behind-the-scenes matters. She's in the castle during the battle but not on the war council voicing an opinion. She rallies the women, takes care of the wounded.

I'd be very upset if her arc suddenly shifted and she's Catelyn Stark 2.0 or Genna Lannister.

[OldGimletEye]

She was married to a war lord though and her adopted people make their living at war and pillage. And her main advisor was a knight who fought in Robert's Rebellion and now Selmy, the greatest warrior in Westeros. So, she had a few more basic building blocks than Sansa, who has none.

Yeah, but I think the point of all this is that Dany had mentors to teach her the basics. Nobody is saying Sansa is some latent military genius. Of course I don't think Dany is some born military genius either.

But, yeah, Sansa, will definately need mentors to teach her, like anybody else her age would. And I think its possible that she might acquire a few competent advisors, like Bronze Yohn or the Blackfish. Will see though, I guess.

[NotSoSilentSister]

I don't expect Sansa to get rid of Littlefinger for quite a while yet, so nope. (Frankly, I hope she'll use him for her own purposes as long as possible before she offs him).

Once she does, I think her first move would be to support Jon/Rickon/possibly Stannis against the Boltons/Euron/Aegon/the Ice-Zombies. Lannisters and Freys probably won't be of much concern at this point. (The Freys will probably have become irrelevant by the end of Winds and the Lannisters will be busy licking their wounds.)

But generally, Sansa's greatest effectiveness probably won't be as a military commander. I think she'll learn how to play Littlefinger, make him her puppet, keep him in the game for a while. And Littlefinger isn't exactly one for military campaigns either, so I think the Vale army won't get that much exercise any time soon.

[Cas Stark]

Yeah, but I think the point of all this is that Dany had mentors to teach her the basics. Nobody is saying Sansa is some latent military genius. Of course I don't think Dany is some born military genius either.

But, yeah, Sansa, will definately need mentors to teach her, like anybody else her age would. And I think its possible that she might acquire a few competent advisors, like Bronze Yohn or the Blackfish. Will see though, I guess.

I don't want to derail about Dany, but my impression is that like Robb Stark, yes, she does have an inherent talent for military strategy, and that IS where her talent lies, not in administration. This is why Dany is good at leading troops and sacking cities but not so good at the aftermath.

I just can't see Sansa commanding an army, it seems completely alien to her entire storyline and character development, I can't see her making any decisions, like, yes, let's send the army to the RL or North or whatever. It would be really strange.

[OldGimletEye]

I don't want to derail about Dany, but my impression is that like Robb Stark, yes, she does have an inherent talent for military strategy, and that IS where her talent lies, not in administration. This is why Dany is good at leading troops and sacking cities but not so good at the aftermath.

I just can't see Sansa commanding an army, it seems completely alien to her entire storyline and character development, I can't see her making any decisions, like, yes, let's send the army to the RL or North or whatever. It would be really strange.

Ok but here is the thing. If Sansa does become Lady of the Vale, then she will be the one that gives the thumbs up to sending Vale troops anywhere. Going to War is always a poltical decision to obtain political goals. That doesn't mean Sansa will be taking the field herself. Nor does it mean she will get involved in the nitty gritty of operational planning. But, the ulimate responsiblity of going to war will be her decision. As they say, military power is the steel fist behind the velvet glove of diplomacy.

[Lady Howell]

Hi

A couple of points here....it is winter The road to the Vale is impassable. Lancel is in Kings Landing w the Swords and Stars-he gave up everything for the faith. Sansa as a warrior queen-don't see it but love surprises

Cersei has other problems to deal with now other than Sansa

but I do hope Sansa develops as a more saavy character so many times I thought that she was getting there,,,,but then she would do somethng really stupid. She is learning though and life has not been kind to any of the Starks

There has to be some way out of the Vale, even in winter. I mean, winters last years in this world, so in case of famine, they have to have a way to trade and get supplies in and out.

Secondly, if not Lancel, then his little brother Martyn.

Third, being a war-time Queen who contributes to the war effort doesn't automatically make Sansa a warrior-Queen. If that was the case, many more queens would be called warrior-queens. But do we call Queen Elizabeth Tudor a warrior-queen, or Cathrine of Aragon a warrior-queen, or Queen Isabella the She-wolf a warrior-queen. None of them actually fought in the wars, but they had a commanding influence on what happened. they made plans, gave rallying speeches, and sought the advice of great military minds, even though all of them had never been groomed, like say a King, to ever concern themselves with battles strategy or war in general. Yet, all three waged successful wars.

I think calling Sansa a warrior-queen just for waging a war is very inaccurate and misleading about what her role would be in the war to other posters and might make them think I am advocating Sansa picking up a sword and becoming like Arya, which i am not. Also, adding warrior to the title of queen just because she's concerning herself with a matter of state usually handled by a man (war is usually taken care of by a King when one is in power) is also kind of degrading to the role of a queen in general.

I do agree Cersei has other problems, but she's crazy so predicting which enemy or dilema she'd focus the most on is very hard. Though, if i had to try, I'd think I'd just look at which she cares about more considering her value system, in which case, revenge against Sansa for her supposed role in Joffrey's murder and protecting her crown from Sansa would be pretty high ranking on her to-do list.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Even if she takes control of the Vale, binding the riverlords to her cause would be incredibly difficul considering that the crown took hostages from many of them and Edmure himself is captive in CR.

I guess she could invade the West to free Ed or go North to help any Stark, but I think she will make the Vale declare for Aegon. Don't know why, it's just a hunch

[RoamingRonin]

Ok but here is the thing. If Sansa does become Lady of the Vale, then she will be the one that gives the thumbs up to sending Vale troops anywhere. Going to War is always a poltical decision to obtain political goals. That doesn't mean Sansa will be taking the field herself. Nor does it mean she will get involved in the nitty gritty of operational planning. But, the ulimate responsiblity of going to war will be her decision. As they say, military power is the steel fist behind the velvet glove of diplomacy.

Wouldn't it be Harry's responsibility and not Sansa's?

[OldGimletEye]

Wouldn't it be Harry's responsibility and not Sansa's?

I made the statement under the assumption that Sansa becomes the de facto ruler of the Vale somehow. But, yeah, if she doesn't, then it will not be her responsiblity. Not saying she will become the de facto ruler of the Vale, but she might. I guess we will have to see.

[Jiriki]

Yeah, I don't think Sansa will stayed holed up in the Vale, doing nothing. I could see her keeping about 8,000 or 7,000 troops in the Vale and then sending the rest of her forces into the Riverlands to deal with her family's enemies there. Her forces in the Riverlands could then pose a threat to the West, which Cersei would have to contend with.

I've got to agree with Cas Stark on this: Sansa is not and never has been a military leader. All this talk of Sansa commanding troops and dispatching armies seems like fantasy: what vast army does The Vale have, and how is she going to learn to command an army?

Daenerys has had military advisors surrounding her for the past five books, and she has learned strategy from them, winning several major battles already. It is plausible that Dany could eventually lead a military force to Westeros.

Sansa has none of this.

[OldGimletEye]

I've got to agree with Cas Stark on this: Sansa is not and never has been a military leader. All this talk of Sansa commanding troops and dispatching armies seems like fantasy: what vast army does The Vale have, and how is she going to learn to command an army?

Daenerys has had military advisors surrounding her for the past five books, and she has learned strategy from them, winning several major battles already. It is plausible that Dany could eventually lead a military force to Westeros.

Sansa has none of this.

Ok, I have never asserted that Sansa is going to become some battlefield commander. I have never asserted she is going to be some master tactician, nor is she going to be some master in the operational art. Her role will probably be limited to being a wartime political leader. But, that is ok. There have been plenty of decent war time political leaders in history, like Lincoln, Churchill, FDR, and Bismarck. I don't know why this so hard. What I have said is that she will probably have to learn something about war strategy if she will be a war time political leader. I am not saying she is going to become Napoleon.

Bismarck had Moltke and Sansa's Moltke might be Bronze Yohn or somebody else. But, again, just in case, I haven't mad this clear enough, I don't think Sansa will be leading troops into the field. However, she will probably at some point make some high level strategic decisions of course with input from her advisors. Most US presidents don't have military experience either. But, they do on occasion have to consult with the Chairman of the Joints Chiefs.

Now, I know there are some that think Dany is some gifted miltary commander because she has won some battles. But, sorry, I am not seeing it. She may become one. But, she ain't no Marshall Turene as of now.

[Lady Howell]

I've got to agree with Cas Stark on this: Sansa is not and never has been a military leader. All this talk of Sansa commanding troops and dispatching armies seems like fantasy: what vast army does The Vale have, and how is she going to learn to command an army?

Daenerys has had military advisors surrounding her for the past five books, and she has learned strategy from them, winning several major battles already. It is plausible that Dany could eventually lead a military force to Westeros.

Sansa has none of this.

You act as if these things are impossible to get. Sansa could easily get a veteran strategist on her side to do all the military strategy. All she would have to do is review all the plans presented to her and choose which one to use. No matter what, she'll be picking a strategically sound plan because an experienced strategist will most likely only come up with the best courses of action to present her with in the first place.

And the Vale is the only force in Westeros with a fully intact army, and everyone else has been weakened by the civil war. All they have to do is be strategic and victories won't that hard to come by. Plus, you act as if there isn't one military veteran in the Vale who might be willing to say, give her advice, or straight up do all the work for her.

And personally, Sansa doesn't have to command troops. Not at all. I get the feeling that a lot of people think of Sansa ever having anything to do with ruling and waging any sort of war would imply her wearing armor and doing things Robb did when he was rebelling. But Sansa will probably be different. She won't be fighting on the front lines, giving her men these commands herself or doing much besides administration and politics. She may give a few speeches, wear ceremonial armor on occasion (strictly ceremonial), but she's not going to be a Nymeria or Visenya as apparently many people think would be a mandatory requirement of a Queen waging a war.

You guys seem to have a very, very skewed idea of what it would take for Sansa to do anything besides sit and be pretty.