The Spiders' Intelligence Failures

[BryndenBFish]

Hey folks, I've published a new essay on Varys and his intelligence failures on my blog here. I'm in the middle of another re-read of the series, and I'm in the middle of ACOK. One of the things that stuck out to me was how Varys had 1 (and possibly 2) major intelligence failures as Master of Whisperers, namely: the poisoning of Jon Arryn and the execution of Eddard Stark. I wanted to get your all's feedback and input.

We know that Varys had a vast intelligence network based out of the Red Keep based in part on his little birds. From the essay:

With tunnels running throughout the Red Keep, Varys could infiltrate his little birds into them. They could overhear conversations, write them down and report them back to Varys. It was a seemingly perfect network. So, it begs the question: how did it so utterly fail in the cases of Jon Arryn and Eddard Stark?

On Jon Arryn:

Lysa had means, motive and opportunity to help poison Jon Arryn. So, it is likely that Lysa poisoned Jon Arryn, which resulted in his death.

I bring all this up, because I’m a bit dumbstruck. Where was the hell was Varys in all this? He had a vested interest as spymaster in keeping tabs on both Jon Arryn, Lysa Arryn and Petyr Baelish. And his Little Birds probably witnessed the sexual liason between Lysa and Littlefinger. They also probably overheard some of the details of the conspiracy between Lysa and Littlefinger. Varys wanted to sow chaos in Westeros, but only when the time would be ripe.

I liked Steven Atwell's explanation on this point:

I

ndeed, one could say that overall, Varys consistently acts to remove any political figure of the generation of the Rebellion who would presumably be adamant against the return of the Targaryens – he does nothing when Jon Arryn’s death is plotted. – Race for the Iron Throne Analysis of AGOT, Eddard XV

On Eddard's Execution:

If Littlefinger convinced Joffrey to execute Eddard Stark, how did Varys not know of it. As seen previously, Varys had a vast intelligence network that listened to private conversations and recorded them for Varys. Joffrey’s comings and goings would have been of utmost importance to Varys. It would stand to reason that Varys would have his little birds constantly monitoring the king’s actions and words. Moreover, it would also stand to reason that Varys would have the same for Littlefinger and his minions.

So, what do you all think? Were these intelligence lapses by Varys or something else?

[Ice Turtle]

I have to say that I didn't read the essay but for the OP:

IMO he knew about Jon Arryn being poisoned at least later when Pycelle was treating him. It absolutely did not suit him to keep Arryn alive.

I doubt he knew about Littlefinger's plan for Ned, I think that he really was surprised. LF knows enough about Vars to be able to avoid the little birds from time to time.

But he had more than two failures especially outside of King's Landing.

I don't think he knows what happened to Arya, though I wonder how much he knows about Syrio Forrel.

He most likely doesn't know who Jon's parents were.

He doesn't know enough about Euron.

He doesn't know that Stark kids are wargs and that Bran and Rickon are alive.

He most probably doesn't know about the Others returning, which is the biggest deal.

[BryndenBFish]

I have to say that I didn't read the essay but for the OP:

IMO he knew about Jon Arryn being poisoned at least later when Pycelle was treating him. It absolutely did not suit him to keep Arryn alive.

I doubt he knew about Littlefinger's plan for Ned, I think that he really was surprised. LF knows enough about Vars to be able to avoid the little birds from time to time.

But he had more than two failures especially outside of King's Landing.

I don't think he knows what happened to Arya, though I wonder how much he knows about Syrio Forrel.

He most likely doesn't know who Jon's parents were.

He doesn't know enough about Euron.

He doesn't know that Stark kids are wargs and that Bran and Rickon are alive.

He most probably doesn't know about the Others returning, which is the biggest deal.

While it seems that Varys has whisperers on the Wall, I'm genuinely curious if he would have any farther north than the Wall. And IIRC, isn't he hanging around when Aliser Thorne presents the wight hand to Tyrion?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think Varys did know that Baelish had a hand in Arryn's death, actually. Look at what he tells Ned about the boy from the Vale who owed Arryn everything and stayed in the capital when Arryn died. At the time, it seems like he means Hugh. In hindsight, it actually reads like he's clueing Ned into what Baelish was up to. I don't see that as an intelligence failure so much as, "Why was it in Varys's interests to protect his rival in Arryn's murder?" And it's possible he kept quiet about it because Arryn's death meant one fewer competent man with Robert, so it was worth keeping quiet.

The biggest of Varys's actual intelligence failures is that he never figured out who Jon really was.

[BryndenBFish]

I think Varys did know that Baelish had a hand in Arryn's death, actually. Look at what he tells Ned about the boy from the Vale who owed Arryn everything and stayed in the capital when Arryn died. At the time, it seems like he means Hugh. In hindsight, it actually reads like he's clueing Ned into what Baelish was up to. I don't see that as an intelligence failure so much as, "Why was it in Varys's interests to protect his rival in Arryn's murder?" And it's possible he kept quiet about it because Arryn's death meant one fewer competent man with Robert, so it was worth keeping quiet.

The biggest of Varys's actual intelligence failures is that he never figured out who Jon really was.

I think your interpretation of Jon Arryn's death is correct. I think the answer to your question on why it was in Varys' interest to protect LF is that he needed to keep the secret of Cersei's children, well... secret. He couldn't have the continent spilling into war at that juncture -- especially at a time when Robert Baratheon was still living. (I'm basing this off of vikingkingq's excellent comment on reddit) If Robert Baratheon finds out about the incest and parentage of his children, he essentially squares off against Tywin Lannister with the might of the Stormlands, North, Riverlands and potentially the Reach behind him. But in forestalling this, Varys ensured the realm would go to war on a much more even footing (Lannisters vs. Starks/Tully, Baratheon vs. Baratheon, Baratheon vs. Lannister).

I've always been curious as to how much Varys knows about Jon. He's at least aware of his existence from his conversation with Ned in the Black Cells. I'm not sure that he knows about Jon Snow's potential Targ background -- in fact, it would stand to reason that he doesn't, considering he doesn't really do anything about Jon or counsel others on what to do with Jon.

[TheNinjaDC]

Vary's has made multiple failures, JonCon directly points out several.

However, I feel his biggest one will not finding out the identity of Jon Snow's mother.

[BryndenBFish]

Vary's has made multiple failures, JonCon directly points out several.

However, I feel his biggest one will not finding out the identity of Jon Snow's mother.

True, though I'd be more curious what Varys' reaction to Jon's father would be if R+L=J. If the Blackfyre theory on Aegon's lineage proves true, and Varys has been working to put a Blackfyre on the throne, Jon Snow/Targaryen would threaten Aegon's claim. Of course, that hinges on whether Jon keeps true to his NW vows or not following his Caesar'ing and hopeful resurrection.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Varys knew about Jon Arryn. His description of the one responsible fits Ser Hugh - but it fits LF even better. And he had a vested interest in getting rid of Jon Arryn, since otherwise all the tension in the Seven Kingdoms would flare up and burn out, long before fAegon was ready and leaving Robert's rule stronger than ever.

On the other hand, LF whispering in Joffrey's ear can be done quite quickly and LF knows how to avoid the little birds if necessary.

While it seems that Varys has whisperers on the Wall, I'm genuinely curious if he would have any farther north than the Wall. And IIRC, isn't he hanging around when Aliser Thorne presents the wight hand to Tyrion?

What makes you think so? Not once did Varys display any knowledge of the Wall, that was not already common. Furthermore, any reports from these potential whisperers would have to be carried to the Red Keep. How should that be done? From Castle Black to Eastwatch and then by trading ship? Contact besides official orders is rare, trading ships even rarer. And expensive.

That's not limited to the Wall. By and large, Varys knows what is happening in KL itself, and what's happening at the other end of the main trade lines. But hardly anything else.

He shows no knowledge of the entire North, most of the Vale, the Riverlands, Dorne or the Iron Islands. What he knows is a bit from up the Roseroad, or what is happening in the Free Cities. But that's it.

[TheNinjaDC]

True, though I'd be more curious what Varys' reaction to Jon's father would be if R+L=J. If the Blackfyre theory on Aegon's lineage proves true, and Varys has been working to put a Blackfyre on the throne, Jon Snow/Targaryen would threaten Aegon's claim. Of course, that hinges on whether Jon keeps true to his NW vows or not following his Caesar'ing and hopeful resurrection.

I point out mother just because, realistically it was a dumb move on his part not to dig into who she was purely under the guise of Jon being Ned's bastard.

The ultra honorable Ned had a bastard with a woman whose identity he feverly kept hidden. Does he need a harold from the 7 to fly down and scream aloud "black mail, black mail!"

Him, wasting this by writing off Ned has the huge potential to through a wrench into all his Aegon plans if a certain formula comes true.

[Lord_Tyrell]

I really think that Varys abilities are greatly overstated in the novels really. Littlefinger clearly knows his way around them, and is basically never caught by Varys.

[BryndenBFish]

What makes you think so? Not once did Varys display any knowledge of the Wall, that was not already common. Furthermore, any reports from these potential whisperers would have to be carried to the Red Keep. How should that be done? From Castle Black to Eastwatch and then by trading ship? Contact besides official orders is rare, trading ships even rarer. And expensive.

That's not limited to the Wall. By and large, Varys knows what is happening in KL itself, and what's happening at the other end of the main trade lines. But hardly anything else.

He shows no knowledge of the entire North, most of the Vale, the Riverlands, Dorne or the Iron Islands. What he knows is a bit from up the Roseroad, or what is happening in the Free Cities. But that's it.

It was just an assumption based on reports that Varys receives from around the realm. A cursory search of ACOK/ASOS didn't turn up anything about any Whisperers on the Wall. So, I stand corrected. Thanks!

I seem to recall that Catelyn feared that whispers of her movement would reach Varys' ears if she journeyd south from Winterfell on horseback -- hence why she left out from White Harbor aboard a ship, but that also could be a wrong assumption/memory.

Per Littlefinger: It's possible for Varys' birds not to overhear his advice to execute Eddard, but they would at least report LF & Joffrey's meeting. It would be somewhat suspicious for the king and LF to meet, and then assumedly for LF or one of his intermediaries to meet with Ilyn Payne & Janos Slynt. IMO, that would be a cause for suspicion for a spymaster. Varys should have had an inkling that something was awry. Instead, we get the scene where Varys runs up to Joffrey waving his arms after Joffrey gives the order to cut Eddard's head off.

[Lord Varys]

It's actually possible that Varys and Littlefinger plotted the Arryn murder together. Varys may have nudged Littlefinger and Lysa into the right direction by telling Lysa Jon's plan about Robert, and Littlefinger about the twincest. That provided Lysa and Littlefinger with both motive, means, and a good smokescreen. And Varys' hands remained clean.

That could also explain why the hell Varys brought Littlefinger into the whole Cat business in AGoT. If he and Littlefinger were in the Arryn thing together, he might also have known about Lysa's letter to Catelyn...

On Ned's execution:

Littlefinger knows how to circumvent the little bird network. All he needed to do was to instruct Janos Slynt about what was going to happen, and talk to Joffrey alone to convince him that he should actually execute Ned. The latter thing could have been done anywhere in Maegor's Holdfast - where the royal apartments are. Varys himself confirmed that no secret listening post are in there since Maegor did not want anyone to spy on him.

We can be pretty sure that Varys did figure out who arranged Ned's execution, as well as who murdered Jon Arryn (if he was not involved in that, which I doubt). It's also very likely that he does know who murdered Joffrey, although he may not have hard evidence on that.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

It was just an assumption based on reports that Varys receives from around the realm. A cursory search of ACOK/ASOS didn't turn up anything about any Whisperers on the Wall. So, I stand corrected. Thanks!

I seem to recall that Catelyn feared that whispers of her movement would reach Varys' ears if she journeyd south from Winterfell on horseback -- hence why she left out from White Harbor aboard a ship, but that also could be a wrong assumption/memory.

This wrong assumption is quite common, both in the books as well as in the forums. Varys promotes this image of omniscience deliberately. But it is wrong.

Per Littlefinger: It's possible for Varys' birds not to overhear his advice to execute Eddard, but they would at least report LF & Joffrey's meeting. It would be somewhat suspicious for the king and LF to meet, and then assumedly for LF or one of his intermediaries to meet with Ilyn Payne & Janos Slynt. IMO, that would be a cause for suspicion for a spymaster. Varys should have had an inkling that something was awry. Instead, we get the scene where Varys runs up to Joffrey waving his arms after Joffrey gives the order to cut Eddard's head off.

Nope. LF is the Master of Coins, member of the Small Council, vital in subduing Ned in the first place and living in the Red Keep itself. He talks to the King all the time. As well as to the King's Justice and the commander of the goldcloaks. Purely on duty, or due to living in the same building..

[Good Guy Garlan]

Another big failure on his part was letting his guard down when it came to Doran.

Varys probably knew about the pact to marry Arianne to Viserys, and that's one of the reasons IIIyrio sent him and Dany with the Dothraki. But Varys never realized that Doran could send Quentyn to Dany as well, and that one almost works for Doran, had it not been for Dany rejecting him.

As for Jon Arryn, I think maybe Varys knew LF and Lysa were plotting to kill him, but he probably thought it was just a plot for LF to marry her, nothing more. Lysa's letter about the Lannisters came from the Eyrie, and Varys doesn't seem to have spies there. So I think he didn't imagine the full extent of LF's plot, and he was initially glad that Jon died because A) he was no friend of the Targs and B ) he knew about the twincest

[Gneisenau]

Is Jon Arryn's death a setback for Varys ? Perhaps he let it slide because it fits in with his overall scheme ?