Imry Florent did nothing wrong on the Blackwater.

[Lord Freypie]

Personnally I trust book characters more than posters to judge battle tactics. If GRRM wanted to make Imry's plan look good, he would have made Davos praise his tactics.

That said agree that based on the numbers of men given, Tywin's war plan (as guessed by Tyrion) wouldn't have worked without the Baratheon infighting offering them Tyrells alliance but there was nothing the defenders of KL could have done that would have changed that.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Personnally I trust book characters more than posters to judge battle tactics. If GRRM wanted to make Imry's plan look good, he would have made Davos praise his tactics.

Well, there is one small problem with that approach: GRRM loves coloring his PoVs with bias.

The best example is obviously Cersei, but applies to every single PoV,

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Disagree with most but not all.

1. Roose was not indept as he managed to avoid being completely butchered when he almost entirely lacked horse against the Westerland army which included a great deal of heavy horse.

2. The Riverlands are very rich and the Lannisters seems to have kept moving as well, thus Kevan's remark on how they marched on the Riverlords one by one after Edmure allowed them to scatter to defend their homes.

3.Old men fight old wars. Balon was essentially re-fighting his rebellion against Eddard and Robert. That fits well with is character.

4. He does indeed.

5.Considering that Eddard was shocked and Tywin and Kevan grossly disappointed with Joffrey shows that the idea that everyone knew about Joffrey's character is incorrect. Mace, making a case for his name, seems like the perfect guy not to know anything about it.

6. That is a plot gift but wouldn't really have mattered much for the war. Tommen was at Rosby and safe away from Stannis. Even if Stannis had taken the capital Tommen would've just been crowned king and married to Margaery in Joffrey's stead.

7. You go with the idea that most people in Westeros are rational and not supersticious (I know about the spelling), which I think is incorrect.

8. I call that "confiscating every vessel that I can find along a major river in an age where travel by water is the fastest way to travel". At least that's what I personally make of it.

9. Are they really less than 100? I thought they were more but in that case that is rather difficult to explain.

10. That's called "Aerys wanted to torch the whole freaking city before Jaime killed him". I'd say that's backstory becoming relevant to the storyline and not plot armor.

11. Grace of the Seven?

1. Marching your army to the point of exhaustion almost never works unless you can take them by surprise with a cavalry charge, whcihc Roose couldn't because he had almost no cavalry. Had Tywin not found out from his prisoners that the Stark horse had crossed, he would have pursued Bolton and likely obliterated his army. (Also I think you are kind of overestimating the value of heavy horse, Roose had an abundance of pikemen and archers, both types of soldiers that have defeated heavy cavalry many times IRL. I'm not expecting Roose to suddenly pull and Agincourt or Crecy out of nowhere, but he didn't use the strengths of the men he did have well.

2. Tywin stays at Harrenhal for a fairly large period of time, possibly 3-4 months, he has already marched through this area, and the Riverlords are burning their crops, as we know from Cleos, historical sources are sketchy on the matter, but I find it doubtful that so many men could be fed from forage for so long under such conditions.

3. My entire point, Balon is a stupid old man, George wrote him as such so as to give reasons for why Robb and Catelyn fuck up at the end of the book.

4. unRenly!

5. As a prince maybe, but news tends to spread fairly quickly in westeros, E.G. Robb knows of Boros Blount being stripped of the white cloak, people know Stannis burned the Godswood, even though no one who was there should have left his host (and since no one in his host kept the old gods, none should have cared). This one is debatable, but I don't think the young king having a noblewoman stripped naked and beaten is news that would be ignored.

6. Maybe, maybe not, if the capital was taken everything could have changed.

7. Again a big maybe, though the fact that the 'ghost' defeated a knight as acclaimed as Guyard Morrigan shows that he probably isn't renly.

8. But when did Mace start this process? How many vessels would there be along the blackwater, and if this is possibly, why couldn't Robb do the same across the Trident in book 1.

9. I meant less than 200, Tyrion had about 300 on the Green Fork, but half died, and some more went back to the mountains.

10. Well yes, but still a big stroke of luck on Tyrion's part.

11. R'hllor wills it?

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Well, there is one small problem with that approach: GRRM loves coloring his PoVs with bias.

The best example is obviously Cersei, but applies to every single PoV,

That assumes real world battle tactics hold in book, which they often don't; it should have taken Tywin weeks to take Raventree Hall and Stone Hedge, instead it takes him hours et cetera.

It doesn't mean we should take PoV opinions for fact, but using real world facts is just as unreliable for ASOIAF. Davos probably had more experience on ships than any of the other men in the battle, if he believes scouting is possible, then it is, though that is not to say it would be useful.

[Bryanfury]

GRRM loves coloring his PoVs with bias.

This is true, but I feel like Davos is one of those PoVs that is less biased and more objective than most, bar Davos' E-Ro level fanboyism for Stannis.

[Lord Freypie]

One arguement about GRRM intent with Imry is he is a fan of historical fiction and the thema of a land commander being given a fleet, using an unappropriate tactic and losing, is something very classical.

As a fan of the Druon's Accursed Kings, GRRM may have remembered the battle of L'Ecluse (Sluys) the french lost in the beginning of the Hundred Years war; after ignoring advice from their genoese mercenary admiral Barbavera and giving command to their far less experimented on water constable Behuchet, who decided to fight the battle like a defensive siege, chaining all their boats together and fighting at anchor, which resulted in the loss of the whole fleet, as english more mobile vessels circling them kept distance and used flaming arrows.

Marc-Antoine the lover of Cleopatra is as well often accused of having tried to use lands tactics on water, ordering a charge of the egyptian fleet at Actium (it's notably how the battle is described in the classic Cleopatra movie with Elisabeth Taylor).

(but note that in the two cases it's more how some historical fiction authors explained those defeats than the PoV of true historians ; so you may have a case that Davos just shares the same bias as those authors against "land commanders given command for a naval battle").

[Nyrhex]

Personnally I trust book characters more than posters to judge battle tactics. If GRRM wanted to make Imry's plan look good, he would have made Davos praise his tactics.

That said agree that based on the numbers of men given, Tywin's war plan (as guessed by Tyrion) wouldn't have worked without the Baratheon infighting offering them Tyrells alliance but there was nothing the defenders of KL could have done that would have changed that.

Aside from the fact that GRRM's characters are some times intentionally wrong, and think they are not because people are human, GRRM has no military experiance. If he has a character say x plan is great, but when we see the details and some of us see the obviouse flaws in said plan, we are going to call it out as BS. Sometimes GRRM can intend for a character to be wrong, sometimes he wants to write the epic battle he wants and damn logic.

On the Blackwater, Davos's thoughts about what he would have done still works with a smuggler who was never in a battle, has no experiance and no training, and is scared shitless from the battle to come. There is nothing he could have done to see the wildfire, unless he has x-ray vision. The wildfire and the chain had nearly no impact on the battle itself. Stannis was still going to win, only he lost most of his fleet. Tyrion was not only burning time, money, effort and most importantly, his own men, but also his objective - to buy time. Instead of Tyrion in early ACOK, who believes the city as it is would not fall in a day, on the Blackwater he fights to keep it for more than a few hours. Clearly, he failed in his stated mission. When you think that at the time he made this plan, he also had to worry about Renly being so close to the capital, that his men could not only wait on Tywin to meet up with them, but also arrive on the same day as Stannis, you see that not doing jack about defending from that is simply unexplainable. GRRM knew that the battle was going to be against Stannis, so he did not bother with planning against Renly, and planned for a battle against Stannis. Tyrion dismisses Renly and his 90,000 men as something that Tywin would take in the rear and defeat easily enough with his <20,000 men. Because... reasons?

[Lord Freypie]

The 90000 men would have had to cross the Blackwater too, and I guess Renly's barge weren't more fireproof than Stannis fleet.

In addition boats aren't the only things able to burn, and if Tyrion hadn't to face a fleet, wildfire would have been employed to burn siege engines. It's because he knows Stannis will attack with the fleet that most wildfire is placed in the fire boats instead of being used from the walls (and note that Tyrion asked gold cloaks to be trained for use of wildfire with catapults). Only good arguement you have is the chain would have been a waste in this case.

Even imagining they had taken their time to cross far from the city, if Tywin was there in time he could have entered King's Landing through the Lion's or northern gate before they completely surrounded the city, if he wasn't strong enough to fight an open battle. That said even with +20000 defenders on the wall, the city would have fallen, because of famine, the gold cloaks low morale, betrayals, etc... But probably taking far more than one day.

I think the problem in your arguements is you are taking what Tyrion says to give courage to Cersei ("his host will be the hammer"' etc... things he say trying to have his most winning smile) as his only battle plan (and also imagine Tywin would have followed that plan). Even if Tyrion had no other, Tywin was certainly intelligent enough to avoid an open battle if he had to fight it 1v5.

In conclusion you take a ) a "keep hope Cersei" speech, and b ) the battle as it happened after Tyrion was sure to face Stannis and a fleet, as the only plan, then criticize it on the basis that it wouldn't have worked in completely different conditions (and while just nothing would have saved the city in those conditions).

[Nyrhex]

The 90000 men would have had to cross the Blackwater too, and I guess Renly's barge weren't more fireproof than Stannis fleet.

In addition boats aren't the only things able to burn, and if Tyrion hadn't to face a fleet, wildfire would have been employed to burn siege engines. It's because he knows Stannis will attack with the fleet that most wildfire is placed in the fire boats instead of being used from the walls (and note that Tyrion asked gold cloaks to be trained for use of wildfire with catapults). Only good arguement you have is the chain would have been a waste in this case.

Even imagining they had taken their time to cross far from the city, if Tywin was there in time he could have entered King's Landing through the Lion's or northern gate before they completely surrounded the city, if he wasn't strong enough to fight an open battle. That said even with +20000 defenders on the wall, the city would have fallen, because of famine, the gold cloaks low morale, betrayals, etc... But probably taking far more than one day.

I think the problem in your arguements is you are taking what Tyrion says to give courage to Cersei ("his host will be the hammer"' etc... things he say trying to have his most winning smile) as his only battle plan (and also imagine Tywin would have followed that plan). Even if Tyrion had no other, Tywin was certainly intelligent enough to avoid an open battle if he had to fight it 1v5.

In conclusion you take a ) a "keep hope Cersei" speech, and b ) the battle as it happened after Tyrion was sure to face Stannis and a fleet, as the only plan, then criticize it on the basis that it wouldn't have worked in completely different conditions.

They can cross with barges upriver, where Mace met Tywin. No need to make a crossing where the enemy can throw shit at you, unless your means of crossing need to pass through his fleet first to get to you.

The siege engines are farther away from where you can toss wildfire pots. Tyrion did not exactly make it easier when he spent the money that was to go to more scorpions and the likes on his chain. The defenders would have been too few, poorly armed (money for arms and armor, as well as the metal was given to the chian project), and Renly can still keep his siege. The chain was still a waste. Tyrion had to burn his own fleet in the bargain, and thosands of his own men with it. All that, for a nice little naval battle, and a delay that only delayed Stannis for a short period of time.

If Tywin enters the city, he is fucked. No food, the end. No one cares how long the city takes to fall. Tyrion thinks he has more than one day, because Tyrion is not here to win the battle. Tyrion is here to buy time for his father to come from Harenhall. If Tywin is already in the city it can hold for as much as it likes. It is still going to fall once the food runs out, and there is no one to come to the rescue.

I don't care what Tywin does. Either he attacks Renly's siege, or he does'nt. In both scenarios KL falls, and Tyrion's plans and prep was for nothing.

I take his plans, his waste of money and material, and his clear delusion that his father can do anything against Renly. The wildfire and the chain cost money, material and time at the expense of efforts to defend from Renly. Tyrion has been preparing against Stannis while Renly lived, and abandoned preparations against Renly with no real reason for it. That is what I criticize.

[Lord Freypie]

Is there any textual evidence that the gold cloaks lacked weapons or armor for the battle ? Where is the evidence that they had more men trained to use scorpions than the ones already built ? For all we know, Cersei may have ordered to make far more than needed/usable. Only issue the GC had according to text is they lacked morale and food, things smiths can't really forge..

[Nyrhex]

Is there any textual evidence that the gold cloaks lacked weapons or armor for the battle ? Where is the evidence that they had more men trained to use scorpions than the ones already built ? For all we know, Cersei may have ordered to make far more than needed/usable. Only issue the GC had according to text is they lacked morale and food, things smiths can't really forge..

The blacksmiths tell Tyrion that they were ordered to make arms and armor for the new recruits. Tyrion orders them to work only on the chain, and only return to thier other work after that. The chain is only finished a day or two before Stannis arrives. It's only logical that if you waste all of your money and time on the wildfire and the chian, you can't also prepare for Renly and his army. At the time of the battle, Tyrion had around 7,000 men, which is the same as he had when he arrived at the capital. He did not have time and money and metal to raise more men, because he blew it all on his stupid chain.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

This is true, but I feel like Davos is one of those PoVs that is less biased and more objective than most, bar Davos' E-Ro level fanboyism for Stannis.

Less biased by personal opinions, yes. But he is still very much limited by his lack of noble/military education or experience.

Aside from the fact that GRRM's characters are some times intentionally wrong, and think they are not because people are human, GRRM has no military experiance. If he has a character say x plan is great, but when we see the details and some of us see the obviouse flaws in said plan, we are going to call it out as BS. Sometimes GRRM can intend for a character to be wrong, sometimes he wants to write the epic battle he wants and damn logic.

GRRM has a very long list of good books on military matters on his website. He won't be able to make up genius battleplans (that's the reason he didn't give any details of Robb's battles), but he won't make the most common/stupid mistakes.

[Maid So Fair]

The blacksmiths tell Tyrion that they were ordered to make arms and armor for the new recruits. Tyrion orders them to work only on the chain, and only return to thier other work after that. The chain is only finished a day or two before Stannis arrives. It's only logical that if you waste all of your money and time on the wildfire and the chian, you can't also prepare for Renly and his army. At the time of the battle, Tyrion had around 7,000 men, which is the same as he had when he arrived at the capital. He did not have time and money and metal to raise more men, because he blew it all on his stupid chain.

I don't think there's any evidence that recruitment of significantly more men was even possible as it seems likely they had most men with any military experience already engaged and there was no time to train completely raw recruits. There should be enough armour and arms (if possibly of inferior quality) to supplement some limited recruitment drive. Getting a few more men let alone arming a few more men slightly better would make limited difference against Stannis or Renly sicne they would have been severely outnumbered and out-equipped anyway with the added bonus that some of the new recruits likely want Renly to actually win. The chain, on the other hand, had a potential to significantly increase defence options and affect the battle's outcome, especially taken in conjunction with the rest of Tyrion's plans. Sure, there's an element of luck but it was a gamble where he had little to lose and everything to gain.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

The additional Gold Cloaks had no military expertise anyway.

[Nyrhex]

I don't think there's any evidence that recruitment of significantly more men was even possible as it seems likely they had most men with any military experience already engaged and there was no time to train completely raw recruits. There should be enough armour and arms (if possibly of inferior quality) to supplement some limited recruitment drive. Getting a few more men let alone arming a few more men slightly better would make limited difference against Stannis or Renly sicne they would have been severely outnumbered and out-equipped anyway with the added bonus that some of the new recruits likely want Renly to actually win. The chain, on the other hand, had a potential to significantly increase defence options and affect the battle's outcome, especially taken in conjunction with the rest of Tyrion's plans. Sure, there's an element of luck but it was a gamble where he had little to lose and everything to gain.

The city has 500,000 men, and more coming every day. If you can't find the men, you are doing something wrong. 4,000 new recruits require plenty of new gear, especially when all you had to do so far was equip 2,000. Unless you are saying that one usually has 3 times the arms and armor he needs (and we see Tywin's quartermaster having a fit when he was told he needs to arm less than a fifth of what he already had to arm), no, there is no reason to think that there was enough to properly gear up the new reqruits after Tyrion stops the funding.

The chain is meant to prevent Stannis from crossing. Great, ~130 ships are burned or wrecked, can no longer safely transport men. 30-40 ships upstream, 30 ships behind the chain, still can. Tyrion had to have Imry place his entire fleet, including Saan, in the Blackwater, and have the steam spread the wildfire to prevent all the ships from escaping. He had to have complete success, in order for the plan to work. Naturally, nothing works 100%, and Tyrion now has a poorly equiped militia to hold the walls, while most of his good troops (knights, freeriders, sellswords, full-time marines) have died either on his own ships, or in the sorties to prevent Stannis' forces from landing. Half of the Hound's men died, and Swann likely suffered the same, considering his gate is where the enemy is attacking in force. Most of his own ships burned for the surprise element. To hold the walls they have fewer scorpions than they could have, fewer men, and those are already running for thier lives.

The chain lost Tyrion more than simply raising and training (Tyrion had months to train them) and equiping a small army, like we see Lannisport doing (giving several hundreds of men to Tywin's host, and forming most of Stafford's). A small army can hold the walls until Tywin can arrive. Instead we have Tywin already being there, and racing to get there not in the few days Tyrion is meant to hold, but in the few hours Tyrion barely slowed the enemy down.

[Maid So Fair]

The city has 500,000 men, and more coming every day. If you can't find the men, you are doing something wrong. 4,000 new recruits require plenty of new gear, especially when all you had to do so far was equip 2,000. Unless you are saying that one usually has 3 times the arms and armor he needs (and we see Tywin's quartermaster having a fit when he was told he needs to arm less than a fifth of what he already had to arm), no, there is no reason to think that there was enough to properly gear up the new reqruits after Tyrion stops the funding.

The chain is meant to prevent Stannis from crossing. Great, ~130 ships are burned or wrecked, can no longer safely transport men. 30-40 ships upstream, 30 ships behind the chain, still can. Tyrion had to have Imry place his entire fleet, including Saan, in the Blackwater, and have the steam spread the wildfire to prevent all the ships from escaping. He had to have complete success, in order for the plan to work. Naturally, nothing works 100%, and Tyrion now has a poorly equiped militia to hold the walls, while most of his good troops (knights, freeriders, sellswords, full-time marines) have died either on his own ships, or in the sorties to prevent Stannis' forces from landing. Half of the Hound's men died, and Swann likely suffered the same, considering his gate is where the enemy is attacking in force. Most of his own ships burned for the surprise element. To hold the walls they have fewer scorpions than they could have, fewer men, and those are already running for thier lives.

The chain lost Tyrion more than simply raising and training (Tyrion had months to train them) and equiping a small army, like we see Lannisport doing (giving several hundreds of men to Tywin's host, and forming most of Stafford's). A small army can hold the walls until Tywin can arrive. Instead we have Tywin already being there, and racing to get there not in the few days Tyrion is meant to hold, but in the few hours Tyrion barely slowed the enemy down.

There's men and men and most people fleeing to King's landing or already there are peasants who have never fought in a war and training them at arms to the point when they would be reasonably useful rather than breaking at the first sign of resistance (as eventually happens to Tyrion's forces despite having bigger ratio of experienced v green men anyway). Not only are they unskilled but their loyalty is doubtful. I don't think Tyrion had months to do this either, or really the resources - he's struggling to keep the city fed. At any rate, the recruitment drive can continue even if you don't have all equipment for all your forces straight away - you can train them nevertheless. It's possible to do two things at the same time and there is actually evidence of recruitment in progress. As for equipment, the quartermaster is stumped because they are in the middle of a campaign and in open countryside - they brought most of their armour with them. KL on the other hand is a capital city, with the Gold Cloaks and the crown forces probably having armouries full of assorted stuff they can distribute.

Forging the chain didn't take months of work as it's very much a last minute plan to the events that put Stannis in a position to assault KL - probably a couple of days/weeks at best. The pyromancers weren't doing anything remotely useful so they might as well make more wildfire. It's about utilising his resources in the most efficient manner and the amount of swords etc (especially if we talking quality equipment) that the tradesmen could produce in the time it takes to make the chain would not be significant enough to make a big difference to the outcome of any future battle, especially given the quality of men to wield them. The chain on the other hand, has the potential to make or break the defence in any scenario where ships are being used - whether it's to cut off the enemy and thus prevent true encirclement of the city, cutting their forces in half, or actually succeeding to burn them all with wildfire. It's pretty much guaranteed to cause more casualties or disrupt the enemy's plans more than anything else that could have been produced within the time frame - the chain and the wildfire are the only trump cards Tyrion is likely to get and it's to his credit he uses them to the maximum advantage. Letting the river crossing to go undisputed would be absolutely insane - once Stannis lands Tyrion is doomed anyway even if he has some better equipped troops as he's STILL severely outnumbered by a better quality force and the morale in Kl is at the freezing point. 130 ships sunk means THOUSANDS of enemy troops dying with minimal casualties on Tyrion's side and the enemy having to resort to withdrawing to ford elsewhere of only sending small companies of men at a time.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Please check the timeline before making such a statement.

Tyrion starts the chain one months after he arrives in KL, six months before the Blackwater. 86% of the time Tyrion is in charge of KL, he has the smiths work exclusively on the chain.

[Maid So Fair]

Please check the timeline before making such a statement.

Tyrion starts the chain one months after he arrives in KL, six months before the Blackwater. 86% of the time Tyrion is in charge of KL, he has the smiths work exclusively on the chain.

There's a timeline? To be honest I never really paid that much attention to trying to stamp times on different actions beyond basic understanding of what came first. I didn't have the impression that Tyrion was the Hand for quite so long but if that's the case then fair enough.

I still think the point stands: It was a way to severely bleed the enemy with minimal losses while keeping him away from a city with a potentially hostile population. He would need thousands more men to inflict the kind of losses the wildfire/chain scheme cost Stannis and he probably would have lost just as many in the process, which he can afford much less than Stannis/Renly. I don't think Tyrion could have hoped to match his enemies with conventional means so finding a way around that was a clever thing to do. There's also evidence that he was recruiting more troops as well since he gets more Gold Cloaks and asks for volunteers on top of that and doing two things at the same time. He's just not making more armour etc and he is still dealing with recruits of doubtful loyalty and minimal skill.

[Nyrhex]

1 There's men and men and most people fleeing to King's landing or already there are peasants who have never fought in a war and training them at arms to the point when they would be reasonably useful rather than breaking at the first sign of resistance (as eventually happens to Tyrion's forces despite having bigger ratio of experienced v green men anyway). Not only are they unskilled but their loyalty is doubtful. 2 I don't think Tyrion had months to do this either, or really the resources - he's struggling to keep the city fed. At any rate, the recruitment drive can continue even if you don't have all equipment for all your forces straight away - you can train them nevertheless. 3 It's possible to do two things at the same time and there is actually evidence of recruitment in progress. As for equipment, the quartermaster is stumped because they are in the middle of a campaign and in open countryside - they brought most of their armour with them. KL on the other hand is a capital city, 4 with the Gold Cloaks and the crown forces probably having armouries full of assorted stuff they can distribute.

5 Forging the chain didn't take months of work as it's very much a last minute plan to the events that put Stannis in a position to assault KL - probably a couple of days/weeks at best. The pyromancers weren't doing anything remotely useful so they might as well make more wildfire. It's about utilising his resources in the most efficient manner and the amount of swords etc (especially if we talking quality equipment) that the tradesmen could produce in the time it takes to make the chain would not be significant enough to make a big difference to the outcome of any future battle, especially given the quality of men to wield them. 6 The chain on the other hand, has the potential to make or break the defence in any scenario where ships are being used - whether it's to cut off the enemy and thus prevent true encirclement of the city, cutting their forces in half, or actually succeeding to burn them all with wildfire. It's pretty much guaranteed to cause more casualties or disrupt the enemy's plans more than anything else that could have been produced within the time frame - the chain and the wildfire are the only trump cards Tyrion is likely to get and it's to his credit he uses them to the maximum advantage. Letting the river crossing to go undisputed would be absolutely insane - once Stannis lands Tyrion is doomed anyway even if he has some better equipped troops as he's STILL severely outnumbered by a better quality force and the morale in Kl is at the freezing point. 130 ships sunk means THOUSANDS of enemy troops dying with minimal casualties on Tyrion's side and the enemy having to resort to withdrawing to ford elsewhere of only sending small companies of men at a time.

1. There's men and men. Most armies are made of them. Stafford's army is exactly the same thing Tyrion could have made, with the exception that Tyrion would not have a dierwolf sniffing a secret goat track into KL, to scatter his host. His enemies would need to get over the walls first.

2. He had close to half a year. He sends hald the city watch to hunt and gather food. The cash, metal, and smiths he invests in the chain, and from the new tax on entering the city he pays for the wildfire.

3. By the time Tyrion arrives in the city, the city watch is 6,000 strong. Add the local knights, sellswords, and freeriders, and you have the ~7,000 men at the Blackwater already there. Tyrion added nothing to the city watch. He took out Slynt and some officers, and that is basically it. In the same chapter that Tyrion arrives to the Small Council for the first time, he hears how the smiths and armorers are making new weapons and armors, and carpenters are making catapaults and scorpions by the hundreds. The moment Tyrion diverts the metal to the chain, work on that stops. You have the few that were already there, and the three whore (which don't do much in the battle), and that is it.

4. Sure. But who the hell keeps 200% extra weapons and gear? Clearly, not the smiths of KL:

“I want every forge in King’s Landing turned to making these links and joining them. All other work is to be put aside. I want every man

who knows the art of working metal set to this task, be he master, journeyman, or apprentice. When I ride up the Street of Steel, I want to

hear hammers ringing, night or day. And I want a man, a strong man, to see that all this is done. Are you that man, Goodman Ironbelly?”

“Might be I am, m’lord. But what of the mail and swords the queen was wanting?”

Another smith spoke up. “Her Grace commanded us to make chainmail and armor, swords and daggers and axes, all in great numbers. For arming her new gold cloaks, m’lord.”

“That work can wait,” Tyrion said. “The chain first.”

5. ... Nope. First thing he does is plan against Stannis's fleet, while Renly is still alive. The chain is ordered when Renly is still marching from the south, and Stannis is still believed to be on Dragonstone. In Tyrion's next chapter he learns that Stannis has SE under siege, and Renly is racing to confront him. This plan is well before Renly is dead, and when he is still the larger threat by far. The Wildfire also costs money, and Tyrion asks about how Cersei is planning to pay for 10,000 jars - LF's new tax on refugees. Pyromancers don't do anything other than making wildfire, so they might as well, is like saying that tank plants make tanks, so they might as well make tanks. No shit. it still costs money, and you need to plan what you are going to prepare for, a land war where you would need those tanks, or a naval war where they would be fucking pointless.

The chain is not a make-or-break of the city's defense. A strong garrison can hold the city against both Stannis, and Renly, and buy time for Tywin to arrive. The wildfire was spent, and Stannis still had ships to cross with. It failed, it had no other option. It cost money and resources that could have been spent on other options.

[Lion of the West]

1. Marching your army to the point of exhaustion almost never works unless you can take them by surprise with a cavalry charge, whcihc Roose couldn't because he had almost no cavalry. Had Tywin not found out from his prisoners that the Stark horse had crossed, he would have pursued Bolton and likely obliterated his army. (Also I think you are kind of overestimating the value of heavy horse, Roose had an abundance of pikemen and archers, both types of soldiers that have defeated heavy cavalry many times IRL. I'm not expecting Roose to suddenly pull and Agincourt or Crecy out of nowhere, but he didn't use the strengths of the men he did have well.

2. Tywin stays at Harrenhal for a fairly large period of time, possibly 3-4 months, he has already marched through this area, and the Riverlords are burning their crops, as we know from Cleos, historical sources are sketchy on the matter, but I find it doubtful that so many men could be fed from forage for so long under such conditions.

3. My entire point, Balon is a stupid old man, George wrote him as such so as to give reasons for why Robb and Catelyn fuck up at the end of the book.

4. unRenly!

5. As a prince maybe, but news tends to spread fairly quickly in westeros, E.G. Robb knows of Boros Blount being stripped of the white cloak, people know Stannis burned the Godswood, even though no one who was there should have left his host (and since no one in his host kept the old gods, none should have cared). This one is debatable, but I don't think the young king having a noblewoman stripped naked and beaten is news that would be ignored.

6. Maybe, maybe not, if the capital was taken everything could have changed.

7. Again a big maybe, though the fact that the 'ghost' defeated a knight as acclaimed as Guyard Morrigan shows that he probably isn't renly.

8. But when did Mace start this process? How many vessels would there be along the blackwater, and if this is possibly, why couldn't Robb do the same across the Trident in book 1.

9. I meant less than 200, Tyrion had about 300 on the Green Fork, but half died, and some more went back to the mountains.

10. Well yes, but still a big stroke of luck on Tyrion's part.

11. R'hllor wills it?

1. I agree save for a few points. If Roose had came conventionally he would be smashed by Tywin's superior army so he gambled but lost, unlike Robb who won most of his gambles. I don't recall any mentioning of Northern pikemen, and the only memory I have of archers are the Western longbows raining havoc down on the Northmen. And pikemen are all good but I've never heard of routed pikemen defeating pursuing horse.

2. Well, supposedly Clegane made it as far as Pinkmaiden and sacked that castle. Same with Stone Hedge so I would think the Lannisters forage over a considerbal distance. What I would add is that we should probably also keep in mind that Martin wants to tell a story and not hold a lecture on Medieval logistics. So its entirely possible that he took some liberties regarding that matter.

3. Does this mean that I can call plot armor on Robb Stark for Jaime being reckless and Stafford a fool, because it allowed Robb to win great victories? Same with Greywind just happening to find a path that the people actually living for dozens of generations in the land were in the dark about?

4. Zombies for the win!

5. Depends on. Cersei or someone else might have wanted to keep that part secret to not hurt public relations further. Stannis' actions and Boros humiliation seems to have been very public showing-offs by the people ordering them.

6. I don't think so. Tywin and Mace would still be vastly more powerful than Stannis. Mace would want Margaery to be a queen and Tywin would have a king for her to marry. And both Mace and Tywin would know that Stannis on the throne was the last thing would want.

7. Could be.

8. I' making guesses here but I would think he started the process when he started his march to meet up with Tywin.

9. Ok, I'll take your word for it.

10. Its very advantagous yes, but then agains George may have wanted to get rid of the Wildfire supplies to make sure people didn't start to ask about it. But given that the Wildfire didn't save King's Landing I wouldn't call it plot armor. More like plot convinience.

11. But the Seven outnumber R'hllor so he'll be beaten to a bloody pulp.