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Balon and Winterfell


Wmarshal

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What do you guys think of Balon not sending enforcements to hold Winterfell?



To me it made no sense. This the heart of the North and the only central castle between the West and East. How is this not a major thing? Seriously, I can't respect Asha's stand on, " this is pointless." When she pissed on Theon's teamwork plan with Robb, and pissed on his holding of Winterfell, you know, the castle holding that could bring complete victory.


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Why attempt to hold it (risky business, since the Ironborn would perhaps not be able to reinforce it faster than the Northmen can muster forces to retake it) when you can simply raze it and move off ?

I'd be inclined to go with this explanation, it certainly seems reasonable. But didn't Balon say he aspired to have the North? Assumedly that entails holding it, for which having Winterfell in your grasp would be a huge symbolic, not to mention strategic, asset.

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Why attempt to hold it (risky business, since the Ironborn would perhaps not be able to reinforce it faster than the Northmen can muster forces to retake it) when you can simply raze it and move off ?

Because then the war they started never ends and seriously, how are they going to reinforce men in the East Coast with no middle ground?

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Because then the war they started never ends and seriously, how are they going to reinforce men in the East Coast with no middle ground?

Sure it does. Without strongholds, an enemy at this "period" is little more than a band of brigands, easily hunted down and defeated.

Reinforcing the East Coast is easy, Westeros is circumnavigable to the south. All Balon had to do was send a portion of his fleet around and use the Neck as a staging area. Heck, he could march from GWW to White Harbor, it's not that far. Once he has that, he has the only large port in the North.

Basically, Balon's plan was sound, all he needed was some more time. He was denied that by the gods (or his brother, depending on what you think) intervening while his plan was only in it's infancy.

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I'd be inclined to go with this explanation, it certainly seems reasonable. But didn't Balon say he aspired to have the North? Assumedly that entails holding it, for which having Winterfell in your grasp would be a huge symbolic, not to mention strategic, asset.

Yeah, Balon's plan was to take it all, but not too fast. Holding the Neck and having the biggest single navy, he could afford to take his time. Attempting to hold Winterfell at this point, while many Northern lords still had their keeps and men, would be risky, perhaps even disastrous.

And razing Winterfell, capturing the two stark boys would have just as big a symbolic effect.

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The Ironborn need to see to have solid and constant reinforcement, and for that they need the sea... and Winterfell is landlocked.



Winterfell was going to fall eventually, but taking it so soon (and reinforcing it) would have spread the Ironborn forces too much.


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Why attempt to hold it (risky business, since the Ironborn would perhaps not be able to reinforce it faster than the Northmen can muster forces to retake it) when you can simply raze it and move off ?

Maybe later, if Robb got his army caught between Moat Cailin and Tywin's army, then one could take it, but other than that, the Starks in it were the only useful thing militarily.

Yes, symbolically, its capture is what ultimately destroyed Robb Stark as KITN, but this did not help the Ironborn at all. Only the Lannisters.

Of course any discussion of Balon's military logic begins and rapidly ends at: Why attack the North at all, when they're the only place in Westeros that seems willing to recognize & support your being a king ?

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Of course any discussion of Balon's military logic begins and rapidly ends at: Why attack the North at all, when they're the only place in Westeros that seems willing to recognize & support your being a king ?

No, it does not. This harping on his decision does get tiresome. His decision was entirely a personal/political one, motivated not by his military logic, but by his personal feelings towards the Starks for (as he saw it) killing two of his sons and (quite correctly) kidnapping his third.

I personally don't agree with that decision, but everything he did from that point made sense, militarily, strategically and tactically.

In conclusion: Balon wasn't crazy or stupid or any of the other words narrow minded readers who are blinded by their adoration for the Starks use. He was simply motivated by hatred in his choice of what to attack, and then he was taken out by deus ex machina before his plans could even come close to fruition.

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Sure it does. Without strongholds, an enemy at this "period" is little more than a band of brigands, easily hunted down and defeated.

Reinforcing the East Coast is easy, Westeros is circumnavigable to the south. All Balon had to do was send a portion of his fleet around and use the Neck as a staging area. Heck, he could march from GWW to White Harbor, it's not that far. Once he has that, he has the only large port in the North.

Basically, Balon's plan was sound, all he needed was some more time. He was denied that by the gods (or his brother, depending on what you think) intervening while his plan was only in it's infancy.

You can't circumnavigate a continent with medieval technology like it ain't no thing, especially not when there are no friendly ports along the route. That's why the real life Vikings took a route that involved carrying their boats across land when they were going to the Black Sea. Taking control of the East Coast requires somehow neutralising the fleets of the Westerlands, Reach, Crownlands and Dragonstone (albeit severely depleted in the latter two cases, but Balon couldn't have known that when he was planning his invasion) before you even reach the coast of the North. Sending a fleet to the East Coast therefore risks either that fleet being isolated and destroyed by the vengeful Iron Throne once the North is defeated (because if they're unwilling to cede the North to independence they're hardly going to hand it to Mad Lord Balon), or leaving the Iron Islands inadequately defended.

And as for White Harbour, a sea power launching a land attack across hundreds of miles against a stronghold of one of the North's leading Houses without naval support would probably be inadvisable

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No, it does not. This harping on his decision does get tiresome. His decision was entirely a personal/political one, motivated not by his military logic, but by his personal feelings towards the Starks for (as he saw it) killing two of his sons and (quite correctly) kidnapping his third.

I personally don't agree with that decision, but everything he did from that point made sense, militarily, strategically and tactically.

In conclusion: Balon wasn't crazy or stupid or any of the other words narrow minded readers who are blinded by their adoration for the Starks use. He was simply motivated by hatred in his choice of what to attack, and then he was taken out by deus ex machina before his plans could even come close to fruition.

How is acting emotionally rather than logically not stupid? You're really contradicting yourself here.

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Of course any discussion of Balon's military logic begins and rapidly ends at: Why attack the North at all, when they're the only place in Westeros that seems willing to recognize & support your being a king ?

The question to ask is rather "Why crown yourself when that only guarantees the antagonism of people you're not planning to attack who could potentially recognize your conquests?"

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How is acting emotionally rather than logically not stupid? You're really contradicting yourself here.

Don't even bother. It's not cool anymore to like the Starks or even call Balon a fool despite the way he's shown in the books. In fact if you are in anyway against Balon and believe his strategy of dictating a war over hundreds upon hundreds of miles away against millions of hostile people who have no interest in being ruled by a new power with different gods, then you yourself are just narrow minded and blind to Balon's brilliance as well as a rabid Starkist. It's only logical

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Balon was a moron. He let his emotions make a very important military decision. Sure he was purely motivated through his hatred for the Starks and let his emotions get the better of him, but it was still incredibly stupid nonetheless. His plan to hold the North, while sound, had a major flaw. The Crannogmen. Had Robb managed to get passed the Twins and meet up with Howland's forces, he could easily circumnavigate Moat Cailin via the Swamps and slaughter the Ironborn in the fort to the last man. From there, retaking the north would be easy.

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You can't circumnavigate a continent with medieval technology like it ain't no thing, especially not when there are no friendly ports along the route.

Eh, medieval technology has little enough to do with it, as long as you keep the coast in sight. Victarion just took his Iron Fleet on a journey that was both longer and more hazardous (with crossing the narrow sea).

That's why the real life Vikings took a route that involved carrying their boats across land when they were going to the Black Sea.

No, they took that route because it was shorter and faster and there were some huge rivers that they could use. That isn't the case here, as there's quite a way between Moat Cailin and the eastern shore.

Taking control of the East Coast requires somehow neutralising the fleets of the Westerlands, Reach, Crownlands and Dragonstone (albeit severely depleted in the latter two cases, but Balon couldn't have known that when he was planning his invasion) before you even reach the coast of the North.

No, it does not. Remember, there's no aerial surveillance of radar here. A fleet can move fairly undetected as long as it stays away from major settlements.

Sending a fleet to the East Coast therefore risks either that fleet being isolated and destroyed by the vengeful Iron Throne once the North is defeated (because if they're unwilling to cede the North to independence they're hardly going to hand it to Mad Lord Balon), or leaving the Iron Islands inadequately defended.

Clearly, Balon thought to settle with whoever won the Iron Throne. Much like Robb did.

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How is acting emotionally rather than logically not stupid? You're really contradicting yourself here.

stupid

ˈstjuːpɪd/

adjective

adjective: stupid; comparative adjective: stupider; superlative adjective: stupidest

1.

lacking intelligence or common sense.

Because Balon does not lack either of the two above. Also, because I don't hear people harping on how stupid all the other characters who act on emotion rather than pure logic are (Catelyn, Robb, Ned, etc.).

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Why is anybody surprised Balon didn't think capturing the bloody capital of the realm he was tryna conquer wasn't worth the trouble of manning it? We're talking about the very dude that decided his best bet for a seccessionist bid was to invade the separatist faction rather than helping them crush the Crown.



This is the same dude that graciously gave the Baratheon-Lannister alliance ten bloody years to consolidate their rule before he made his first bid for Kingship, rather than making it during or a few months after the Robellion. Quite chivalrous, really. :D



Hare-brained military decisions are basically Balon Twice-Crowned's usual MO. I'd wager he was thicker than Victarion.


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Why is anybody surprised Balon didn't think capturing the bloody capital of the realm he was tryna counter wasn't worth it? We're talking about the very dude that decided his best bet for a seccessionist bid was to invade the separatist faction rather than helping them crush the Crown. This is the same dude that graciously gave the Baratheon-Lannister alliance ten bloody years before he made his first bid for Kingship, rather than making it during or a few months after the Robellion.

Hare-brained military decisions are basically Balon Twice-Crowned's usual MO. I'd wager he was thicker than Victarion.

Balon also wanted revenge on the Starks. He had that in mind when he made his decision,

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