The Curious Case of The Dragon Prince and The Winter Rose 4

[Metopheles]

[..]

I am 100% sure that Stannis did not know about the swap. Melisandre would mention it in her pov. Yet she rather hints that he did not know, asking herself if she did a mistake. If Stannis ordered it or allowed it, she wouldn't ask herself.

He might know now.

Also, to all those who did not know (me included for a time) the Theon pov from Winds is not after the pink letter. It is directly after Theon reached Stannis.

[Modesty Lannister]

I am 100% sure that Stannis did not know about the swap. Melisandre would mention it in her pov. Yet she rather hints that he did not know, asking herself if she did a mistake. If Stannis ordered it or allowed it, she wouldn't ask herself.

He might know now.

Also, to all those who did not know (me included for a time) the Theon pov from Winds is not after the pink letter. It is directly after Theon reached Stannis.

Is there a Theon chapter from Winds? Do you have a link?

[Metopheles]

Is there a Theon chapter from Winds? Do you have a link?

http://www.ign.com/boards/threads/sample-chapter-from-winds-of-winter.207815997/

apparently. I am always suspicious if there isn't a grrm seal on it but it's the only link I have and the one I read and so far it seemed to have the right content ;)

[Modesty Lannister]

I'm not sure this is genuine. So far I noticed some typos and lack of proper interpunction. The language is funny as well. I'd be cautious.

[Metopheles]

I'm not sure this is genuine. So far I noticed some typos and lack of proper interpunction. The language is funny as well. I'd be cautious.

My thoughts as well. The moment it went to the blood ink I thought two things : Stan freak and maybe fraud.

But I have no other link. I believe it was released in a newer edition of Dance, though I have the first or second edition UK one.

[King Benjen II]

Haven't caught on today's posts yet but I just wanted to say I think we have to go the route of saying Rhaegar learned magic as a youngster in his books. He became an extremely learned individual and also either figured out prophecies for real or thinks he has and still is attempting to work off that info and the rest of what he learned.

This is not something I'm particularly happy about. But I think it is the road we must travel.

What say you?

[King Benjen II]

Thank you for clarifying these two possibilities. The first seems far more easier to work with to me, though makes me sad for the guy he "replaced." But then you wouldn't have any worries that anyone would contradict your story (like, say Ulmer or any of the other old timers at the Wall saying, "What, brought here as a child? Nah, I remember, he showed up at the wall a bit after the end of Robert's Rebellion.")

As for who would need to know, I think only Aemon. Although we don't know for how long Qhorin was stationed at the Shadow Tower, it might be quite believable for Qhorin and "Mance" to have become friends only after the Rebellion, and for Qhorin to have been given the same story of Mance's upbringing at Castle Black.

I am opposed to the idea that Ned knew for all the reasons I've offered above, based upon textual evidence from his and Cat's pov chapters. In my opinion there is absolutely nothing in those chapters to suggest that Ned thought of Mance as anything but a wildling King-beyond-the-Wall (I know that Modesty Lannister reads the "Mance is nothing to fear" line differently from me).

It goes beyond this, in my opinion. What an asshole, if this were true, and not because he's condemning his father to die, because Aerys is an awful king. But being willing to let the Seven Kingdoms bleed like that? If you're really concerned about the "true threat" of impending Winter and the emergence of the Others, you let your entire realm tear itself apart in bloody civil war? And then you just bide your time hanging out at the Wall waiting for...what, exactly?

Do we know how long ago, exactly, Mance left the NW? We know that it's some time after he saw Jon at WF, when Jon was a "boy" and Mance was a "young black brother." But do we have more precise timing of the red and black cloak incident?

It has been brought up in Heresy before that Mance may have been born of Summerhall as Rhaegar was and therefore would be the same age. Or that he is Blackfyre smuggled to Wall during last Blackfyre Rebellion.

[King Benjen II]

I agree with most of the things you said. I think it is very deliberate from GRRM to give us sketchy and contradictory picture of RR, because had he given us more information, there would be no surprise in the end. So, I put my faith in RT's intelligence and character GRRM painted so far. I still firmly believe MR=RT, because of all the reasons we have already discussed and that are in the text. Events like Harrenhall tourney, ToJ, Trident Battle are extremely important and they are not what they seem at the moment. No writer would give so much space to certain events if they are not going to have a pivotal role in the final unraveling of the plot. Also, if RT is indeed dead why is he so important and always present throughout the books. If he is indeed MR, then we have a true leader who knows where the real threat lies and what priorities are. I would not agree with the assessment about the wildling army. It was extremely important to get them away from the Others, because had they stayed beyond-the-wall, sooner or later 7 kingdoms would have faced 100 thousand strong zombie army on top of the Others. This was strategically wise move that resulted in gaining fighters instead of losing them to the enemy side. And let's not forget that MR did an unprecedented job in uniting the wildlings. I don't see that job being done by a bastard raised on the Wall. MR calls his wife "my lady" (remember the scene between Theon and Roose when Bolton constantly reminds Theon he should call him "milord" since he is Reek and not "my lord"), wears a cloak of Targaryen colours, knows folk songs and lore from all 7 kingdoms and seems obsessed with "Dornishman's wife", a song that can be read in many ways and linked to RT, Beal the Bard etc. Furthermore, a low born wildling bastard would not be likely to realise the importance of the Horn of Winter. None other wildling clan chef realised it. Melissandre would have no reason to fake burning him at the stake, Stannis would not have bothered to lock himself up with him for ages in endless conversations, nor would maester Aemon. MR who is not RT would have no motive to go to Winterfell and rescue Arya (fake or not). So, too many things are pointing towards RT=MR. There just aren't enough textual hints for us to unravel the whole plan and the last 15 years of his life. And that's understandable. If we could figure it out, GRRM wouldn't be such a great writer. I'd also like to note that the scene when Jon meets Mance differs in the show significantly. I reflected on that and concluded that the song, the cloak, the Winterfell visits Mance mentioned to Jon would represent too many clues if visualised in the show.

Very well put. I would also add: Why did Aemon insist on holding Mance's son?

[Modesty Lannister]

It has been brought up in Heresy before that Mance may have been born of Summerhall as Rhaegar was and therefore would be the same age. Or that he is Blackfyre smuggled to Wall during last Blackfyre Rebellion.

I have problems with this theory:

1. it involves characters outside ASOIAF.

2. the story is too complicated and serves no purpose. If MR is not RT, it absolutely doesn't matter who he is then. If he is, we have a king with a higher purpose.

[King Benjen II]

1. There's still 2-3 books left.

2. Honestly we're discussing MR=RT. That's pretty damn complicated.

[Metopheles]

The idea that Mance was a person and was replaced by Rhaegar...naaahh. That would be a bad twist and way too complicated and especially unnecessarily complicated. I can tell you the first one to change it would be the show.

[Hrafntýr]

I have problems with this theory:

1. it involves characters outside ASOIAF.

2. the story is too complicated and serves no purpose. If MR is not RT, it absolutely doesn't matter who he is then. If he is, we have a king with a higher purpose.

This theory was the one that seemed "natural" to me on my first reading of the books, kind of like R+L=J; I always feel like it's important to remember those first intuitions, since I'm aware that the hyperanalysis that we do on the boards sometimes results in overthinking things. No offense, I guess I always keep in the back of my mind the sort of crazy theories that Harry Potter fans did back while waiting for the last books, when really it kind of just boiled down to "And Snape always loved Lily," which we kind of knew all along. Sorry for the HP analogy, but it's the closest one I have, of fans seeking out "clues" for what will happen in the remainder of a series.

So anyway, I don't think the MR as product of Summerhall is that farfetched, or even involves out-of-ASOIAF characters, since we've got Jenny's woodswitch friend, Bloodraven, Aemon who were all kicking around at the time. And it would add a nice parallel between MR and Jon, as both Targ offspring who don't know their own heritage (I think MR wouldn't know, that Aemon, if part of the story, would have been charged to keep it secret, again, as a parallel to Jon). But this is off topic, and also has problems with it, such as "Why?" We can understand Lyanna's desire that her child be protected, his parentage kept secret, but why would someone want to keep, say Duncan the Small's, child secret and protected? Again, off topic, sorry!

[Metopheles]

This theory was the one that seemed "natural" to me on my first reading of the books, kind of like R+L=J; I always feel like it's important to remember those first intuitions, since I'm aware that the hyperanalysis that we do on the boards sometimes results in overthinking things. No offense, I guess I always keep in the back of my mind the sort of crazy theories that Harry Potter fans did back while waiting for the last books, when really it kind of just boiled down to "And Snape always loved Lily," which we kind of knew all along. Sorry for the HP analogy, but it's the closest one I have, of fans seeking out "clues" for what will happen in the remainder of a series.

So anyway, I don't think the MR as product of Summerhall is that farfetched, or even involves out-of-ASOIAF characters, since we've got Jenny's woodswitch friend, Bloodraven, Aemon who were all kicking around at the time. And it would add a nice parallel between MR and Jon, as both Targ offspring who don't know their own heritage (I think MR wouldn't know, that Aemon, if part of the story, would have been charged to keep it secret, again, as a parallel to Jon). But this is off topic, and also has problems with it, such as "Why?" We can understand Lyanna's desire that her child be protected, his parentage kept secret, but why would someone want to keep, say Duncan the Small's, child secret and protected? Again, off topic, sorry!

I don't think Potter is a bad analogy at all. Take the horcruxes. You can play everything down to the horcruxes and the hallows, yet there are plenty of mistakes. Plenty of tiny details that shatter the horcrux thing.

Like Harry being bitten by the basilisk, yet no reaction we would expect from a horcrux. Oh and he didn't even got destroyed by this.. oh yeah.. fawkes.. not so much.

And how was it that Malfoy and others could attack Harry and interact with him without being corrupted or getting killed by trying ? And plenty more instances. Though the overall "plot" worked. These tiny details did not destroy it. Just like Mance Rhaegar. There will to the last page of the series be many holes that do not work, that could shatter the thing, but it would still work. Like RLJ. The Dayne kid that disproves it and other instances..

[Modesty Lannister]

I don't think Potter is a bad analogy at all. Take the horcruxes. You can play everything down to the horcruxes and the hallows, yet there are plenty of mistakes. Plenty of tiny details that shatter the horcrux thing.

Like Harry being bitten by the basilisk, yet no reaction we would expect from a horcrux. Oh and he didn't even got destroyed by this.. oh yeah.. fawkes.. not so much.

And how was it that Malfoy and others could attack Harry and interact with him without being corrupted or getting killed by trying ? And plenty more instances. Though the overall "plot" worked. These tiny details did not destroy it. Just like Mance Rhaegar. There will to the last page of the series be many holes that do not work, that could shatter the thing, but it would still work. Like RLJ. The Dayne kid that disproves it and other instances..

Since we have been digressing to the HP cannon, did you know that the idea of a horcrux was actually taken from Slavic fairy-tales. I any self-respecting Slavic fairy-tale if a prince wants to slay a dragon that no one could ever slay, he actually goes beyond seven seas and seven mountains in order to find a golden cage containing a golden egg where the actual soul of the dragon resides. If he break the egg, the dragon is slayed. JK Rowling took this concept into the HP world and even retained the magical number 7 as a number of horcruxes. I was rather impressed.

[Modesty Lannister]

Haven't caught on today's posts yet but I just wanted to say I think we have to go the route of saying Rhaegar learned magic as a youngster in his books. He became an extremely learned individual and also either figured out prophecies for real or thinks he has and still is attempting to work off that info and the rest of what he learned.

This is not something I'm particularly happy about. But I think it is the road we must travel.

What say you?

Basically yes. I think both him and maester Aemon devoted most of their lives to figuring out the ins and outs of various prophecies that could relate to the Targaryen dynasty. I think that was the reason for RT to go Beyond-the-Wall. However, maester Aemon on his deathbed realises they have misinterpreted AA prophecy, talks about burning glass candles etc. As things stand now, I think RT finished the first part of his quest. He found the Horn of Winter thus securing the Wall and resettled the wildlings (united this time) thus taking hundreds of thousands of zombie soldiers from the enemy and turning them into useful fighters, peasants, workers and breeders. So, even metaphorically, he separated life from death with a semi-secured Wall. Now, he has to find other elements in order to face the Others. One is certainly TPTWP or Jon as RT believes. However, he might not be Jon. Then, he has to get the Lightbringer whatever it is. Dany will show up at some point as AA. I believe RT will finish his quest and leave the final showdown to AA, TPHWP and a third dragon whoever they may be. Remember that maester Aegon desperately urged Sam to tell Dany that "dragon has three heads" and that he was too old to ride it. So, as things stand now, the riders may be Jon, Dany, Aegon, even RT, but I personally do not think that is how things will unravel. RT will die before the final showdown probably saving one of the dragon-riders. And he will be cremated with honours as is Targaryen custom. However, the role of Bran would be important in all of this. I think he will basically become Brand the Builder II who will protect the Wall from crumbling and rebuild Winterfell from the cave that he will never leave again. I know it's off topic, but what do you think?

[Metopheles]

Since we have been digressing to the HP cannon, did you know that the idea of a horcrux was actually taken from Slavic fairy-tales. I any self-respecting Slavic fairy-tale if a prince wants to slay a dragon that no one could ever slay, he actually goes beyond seven seas and seven mountains in order to find a golden cage containing a golden egg where the actual soul of the dragon resides. If he break the egg, the dragon is slayed. JK Rowling took this concept into the HP world and even retained the magical number 7 as a number of horcruxes. I was rather impressed.

Dammit when you started I thought, better get me some slavic books, so I create my own horcruxes :P

Seven Hills, Seven Dwarfs, Seven Hills of Rome, Seven is in kabbalah, Seven days, 7 3 6 12 36 72 23 5 are all "magical numbers" though they all come from nature and represent aspects of aesthetic(which in turn is biological because nature is in the golden ratio, thus being aesthetic to our mind) These numbers are also easy to use for time things and stuff. Mayan year has 360 days plus 5 unused days. moon cycles.. people go mad with such things, because these numbers really haunt this world. They are literally everywhere.

EDIT: These are mathematical phenomenons that are easy to use and add and divide with each other, thus the frequent use in culture. These numbers also are calendaric and cyclic, representing time distances and time counting in our solar system and some others maybe.

But the horcrux thing, so the egg is the horcrux of the dragon, kinda ?

Maybe the glamours have similar abilities, but only very very small things, like Mel complaining about the glamour when she burned the Lord of Bones, as she feared it would burn her neck.

When we are at homages..Val Dalla...Valhalla. And thus far the best norse legend that was "grrmized" : Jörmundgandr and Thor. The Midgard serpent was slain by Thor during Ragnarök, but Thor only could walk nine more steps before drowning in the poison(or venom) of Jörmungandr.

heh heh ? Yes, Red Viper vs The Mountain.

[Metopheles]

Basically yes. I think both him and maester Aemon devoted most of their lives to figuring out the ins and outs of various prophecies that could relate to the Targaryen dynasty. I think that was the reason for RT to go Beyond-the-Wall. However, maester Aemon on his deathbed realises they have misinterpreted AA prophecy, talks about burning glass candles etc. As things stand now, I think RT finished the first part of his quest. He found the Horn of Winter thus securing the Wall and resettled the wildlings (united this time) thus taking hundreds of thousands of zombie soldiers from the enemy and turning them into useful fighters, peasants, workers and breeders. So, even metaphorically, he separated life from death with a semi-secured Wall. Now, he has to find other elements in order to face the Others. One is certainly TPTWP or Jon as RT believes. However, he might not be Jon. Then, he has to get the Lightbringer whatever it is. Dany will show up at some point as AA. I believe RT will finish his quest and leave the final showdown to AA, TPHWP and a third dragon whoever they may be. Remember that maester Aegon desperately urged Sam to tell Dany that "dragon has three heads" and that he was too old to ride it. So, as things stand now, the riders may be Jon, Dany, Aegon, even RT, but I personally do not think that is how things will unravel. RT will die before the final showdown probably saving one of the dragon-riders. And he will be cremated with honours as is Targaryen custom. However, the role of Bran would be important in all of this. I think he will basically become Brand the Builder II who will protect the Wall from crumbling and rebuild Winterfell from the cave that he will never leave again. I know it's off topic, but what do you think?

scratch AA whenever Rhaegar or Aemon, as both were either ignorant to AA or didn't consider anyone to be it. Aemon never used AA in his thoughts. Always the prince.

That Azor Ahai mumbo jumbo is just some Melisandre thing and R'hllor stuff. And has nothing to do with the smoke and salt, bleeding star etc. AA is just about a monster that killed a lion and his wife. I don't want anybody to become such a hero. And doubt Rhaegar would do this.

:)

[Modesty Lannister]

Dammit when you started I thought, better get me some slavic books, so I create my own horcruxes :P

Seven Hills, Seven Dwarfs, Seven Hills of Rome, Seven is in kabbalah, Seven days, 7 3 6 12 36 72 23 5 are all "magical numbers" though they all come from nature and represent aspects of aesthetic(which in turn is biological because nature is in the golden ratio, thus being aesthetic to our mind) These numbers are also easy to use for time things and stuff. Mayan year has 360 days plus 5 unused days. moon cycles.. people go mad with such things, because these numbers really haunt this world. They are literally everywhere.

EDIT: These are mathematical phenomenons that are easy to use and add and divide with each other, thus the frequent use in culture. These numbers also are calendaric and cyclic, representing time distances and time counting in our solar system and some others maybe.

But the horcrux thing, so the egg is the horcrux of the dragon, kinda ?

Maybe the glamours have similar abilities, but only very very small things, like Mel complaining about the glamour when she burned the Lord of Bones, as she feared it would burn her neck.

When we are at homages..Val Dalla...Valhalla. And thus far the best norse legend that was "grrmized" : Jörmundgandr and Thor. The Midgard serpent was slain by Thor during Ragnarök, but Thor only could walk nine more steps before drowning in the poison(or venom) of Jörmungandr.

heh heh ? Yes, Red Viper vs The Mountain.

Well, the number 7 "magical" properties are certainly universal. I didn't mean it was originally Slavic (I just mentioned that she kept the number 7 obsession in the horcrux quest) - the idea of soul container (horcrux) is. All these references (like the Nordic one you mentioned) are fascinating and remind me in the best sense how wonderful and diverse our planet is.

[Modesty Lannister]

scratch AA whenever Rhaegar or Aemon, as both were either ignorant to AA or didn't consider anyone to be it. Aemon never used AA in his thoughts. Always the prince.

That Azor Ahai mumbo jumbo is just some Melisandre thing and R'hllor stuff. And has nothing to do with the smoke and salt, bleeding star etc. AA is just about a monster that killed a lion and his wife. I don't want anybody to become such a hero. And doubt Rhaegar would do this.

:)

So far the only candidate for AA is Tyrion then. Or Dany if she slays a Lannister, since she has killed her husband.

[Metopheles]

Well, the number 7 "magical" properties are certainly universal. I didn't mean it was originally Slavic (I just mentioned that she kept the number 7 obsession in the horcrux quest) - the idea of soul container (horcrux) is. All these references (like the Nordic one you mentioned) are fascinating and remind me in the best sense how wonderful and diverse our planet is.

I think, this is heretic I know, the number 7 for Voldemort is because of the kabbalic thing. 7 is beauty and 8 is god. 7 Horcruxes plus Voldemort himself = God. kinda.

Also goes deep into Tarot stuff and hermeticism.

We have yet to see grrm use some chinese numerology. waiting for number 4 to be all around us.