The Curious Case of The Dragon Prince and The Winter Rose 4

[King Benjen II]

Well, we don't know for sure Melisandre is under glamour; that's just a popular fan idea.

Also, she is a magic-user. If she's under glamour, we know damn well who performed the glamour: she did.

No such case can be made for Rhaegar, as far as I know. I can't think of any magic-users with whom he was associating around the time he died. That he had rubies, and Mel likes rubies, doesn't matter much to me. I'm sure he had red clothing too, just like she does, but still he had no known ability to cast glamours.

No, he is only said to have had "the Dornish look." Eye color is never stated.

The only half-Targaryen male character in the series who undoubtedly shows no Targaryen traits is Bloodraven. And that's because he's an albino.

Maybe the only answer is that Mance Rhaegar himself knows magic and is keeping it up. As far as I know we can't place anyone at his side nonstop for 17 years.

Rhaegar was fond of his books.

[Armstark]

There may be a tendency here to confuse two different things.

Going on what GRRM has told us the three Kings Guard were there because they were carrying out orders. He's also told us that they don't get to pick and choose; orders are orders even if they don't like them. From both that and the responses they give to Ned we can fairly infer that they didn't like the orders they were given because obeying them meant that they failed in their duty. They were not at the Trident and they were not at King's Landing and as a result their king is dead.

Nowhere is another king mentioned and they don't sound too fussed about not going to Dragonstone - because the Kings Guard does not flee.

Now this is where they turn into Ronin.

According to the believers in another place they stand and die at that god-forsaken tower because they are protecting their king, except they're not. Ideally one of them should be carrying the babe off to a place of safety while the other two make sure he gets away. At the very least one of them should be guarding the door. There are only seven attackers and in the end five of the seven were dead. If they'd made a proper fight of it in the tower they could well have come out on top. Instead all three of them came out to fight and die.

Why?

Because their king was dead.

The king they had sworn an oath to defend, Aerys Targaryen first of his name, was dead. They had none of then sworn an oath to Rhaegar, or to Viserys or to the bump in Lya Stark's belly. They swore an oath to Aerys and they had failed him by following orders.

Maybe. But there still had to be an order which required them to stay there otherwise they would have gone with Rhaegar to the Trident.

[JNR]

According to the believers in another place they stand and die at that god-forsaken tower because they are protecting their king, except they're not. Ideally one of them should be carrying the babe off to a place of safety while the other two make sure he gets away.

This is such a clear point I wonder how those believers can maintain their belief.

If Rhaegar's orders died with him, and their new goal is to protect the baby Targaryen king, and the baby king is at the ToJ... why on Earth are they staying there?

It seems a terrible way to protect a baby king under the new and hostile reign of King Robert.

Logically, they should move the baby to the last remaining Targaryen stronghold, such as Dragonstone, and then make new plans based on whatever new intelligence they have.

It seems plain that Rhaegar's orders did not die with him.

[King Benjen II]

There may be a tendency here to confuse two different things.

Going on what GRRM has told us the three Kings Guard were there because they were carrying out orders. He's also told us that they don't get to pick and choose; orders are orders even if they don't like them. From both that and the responses they give to Ned we can fairly infer that they didn't like the orders they were given because obeying them meant that they failed in their duty. They were not at the Trident and they were not at King's Landing and as a result their king is dead.

Nowhere is another king mentioned and they don't sound too fussed about not going to Dragonstone - because the Kings Guard does not flee.

Now this is where they turn into Ronin.

According to the believers in another place they stand and die at that god-forsaken tower because they are protecting their king, except they're not. Ideally one of them should be carrying the babe off to a place of safety while the other two make sure he gets away. At the very least one of them should be guarding the door. There are only seven attackers and in the end five of the seven were dead. If they'd made a proper fight of it in the tower they could well have come out on top. Instead all three of them came out to fight and die.

Why?

Because their king was dead.

The king they had sworn an oath to defend, Aerys Targaryen first of his name, was dead. They had none of then sworn an oath to Rhaegar, or to Viserys or to the bump in Lya Stark's belly. They swore an oath to Aerys and they had failed him by following orders.

Precisely.

[Hrafntýr]

I'm not saying that I actually believe this, but hypothetically speaking, if Lyanna and Rhaegar were married, and Aerys and Rhaegar and Elia and Rhaenys and Aegon are dead, might not Lyanna then be Queen Regent to a newborn babe? But then if she's calling the shots, why the slaughter? Guess it doesn't really make sense...though I do think that Ned and his men would appear to the KG to be a threat to the heir, despite Ned being Lyanna's brother.

[Modesty Lannister]

I'm not saying that I actually believe this, but hypothetically speaking, if Lyanna and Rhaegar were married, and Aerys and Rhaegar and Elia and Rhaenys and Aegon are dead, might not Lyanna then be Queen Regent to a newborn babe? But then if she's calling the shots, why the slaughter? Guess it doesn't really make sense...though I do think that Ned and his men would appear to the KG to be a threat to the heir, despite Ned being Lyanna's brother.

As Lyanna was probably giving birth to Jon while they were fighting in front of the ToJ, she was in no position to call any shots.

[Armstark]

This is such a clear point I wonder how those believers can maintain their belief.

If Rhaegar's orders died with him, and their new goal is to protect the baby Targaryen king, and the baby king is at the ToJ... why on Earth are they staying there?

It seems a terrible way to protect a baby king under the new and hostile reign of King Robert.

Logically, they should move the baby to the last remaining Targaryen stronghold, such as Dragonstone, and then make new plans based on whatever new intelligence they have.

It seems plain that Rhaegar's orders did not die with him.

'Bed of Blood' does suggest that he was just born, so there was no time to move

[Hrafntýr]

Modesty Lannister: I'm curious about why you're committed to having Ned be part of a conspiracy with Rhaegar? I'm not really clear on what this adds to your theory. If it's only because Ned never has a truly negative or hateful thought about Rhaegar, might that not be simply because in his conversation with Lyanna on her deathbed she told him that she wasn't abducted but went willingly? Is there some other reason you want him to have been complicit all along? Would he really have gone along with that whole war under false pretenses? And, if he was in on a "This game of thrones things is petty, the real enemy is the WWs" approach, why would he have poo-pooed Catelyn's comment that people say there are far worse things than Mance Rayder north of the wall?

[Black Crow]

Maybe. But there still had to be an order which required them to stay there otherwise they would have gone with Rhaegar to the Trident.

The order, whether given by Rhaegar or by Aerys, would have been given before Rhaegar rode off to die at the Trident. Essentially there are two alternatives; either Hightower tooled up with the summons from Arrys, and Rhaegar obeyed after himself ordering the three to stay behind, or, Hightower turned up with orders from Rhaegar to secure the babe and the bump and send Rhaegar on his way.

I'm rather inclined to go with the latter. Rhaegar has apparently being ignoring his duty for about a year. No-one, we're told could find him. Aerys, presumably was sending messenger after messenger to recall him without success. Then Hightower turns up. We know that he is the man who places duty above all else and he is the one man in the kingdom who can stand up to Rhaegar and because he is obeying the King.

As to their still being with Lyanna after Aerys is dead, it may simply be a case of honour demanding that they do not simply abandon her by the roadside.

[wolfmaid7]

I don't know how many of you are in the health field,i am also an RN and a woman can bleed 4-6 weeks on average after giving birth .Some women only bleed for a week or two. it all depends on how long it takes your uterus to heal. the bleeding comes from your uterus contracting back to normal size, and the bleeding also comes from where the placenta was attached to the uterine wall.Therefore, Lya could have given birth before the events at the Tower.She could have been traveling and infection set in because her Uterus got infected from not healing.

Also from a historical point of view that has to do with just peasent folks the birthing bed is not only limited to giving bith to the child,you have to also give birth or pass the placental sac which is all part of the process and can take some time.

In my work with communites in some countries in Africa,Latin America and the carribean this was a problem that led to high mortality among mothers.Some piece of the placenta will remain causing sepsis ,the mom didn't heal properly on account of poor prenatal/post natal care etc.

It doesn't seem as if Lya was catered to in that way,the Tower didn't seem secure, comfortable or prepared for a woman having birth or even just given birth. Why was is only the KG at the tower,Ned should have run into others.Plus if there were more people there helping her you can't totally silence all of them.It would have leaked.

Which to me says that Lyanna gave birth at Starfall,and she was being escorted back to wherever ? When her health took turn for the worst and they stopped at the Tower.Ned arrived,probably saw a fire in the window or something. Crap hit the fan and Ned finds out from Lya that the baby she had is at Starfall,Ned under the pretense of taking back AD sword collects Jon and his Wet Nurse from there and scene.

[Modesty Lannister]

Modesty Lannister: I'm curious about why you're committed to having Ned be part of a conspiracy with Rhaegar? I'm not really clear on what this adds to your theory. If it's only because Ned never has a truly negative or hateful thought about Rhaegar, might that not be simply because in his conversation with Lyanna on her deathbed she told him that she wasn't abducted but went willingly? Is there some other reason you want him to have been complicit all along? Would he really have gone along with that whole war under false pretenses? And, if he was in on a "This game of thrones things is petty, the real enemy is the WWs" approach, why would he have poo-pooed Catelyn's comment that people say there are far worse things than Mance Rayder north of the wall?

I'm not adamant about it, but there are many things that point towards surviving Starks (Benjen and Ned) being in cahoots with RT=MR. Also, they share a common cause that goes beyond the Iron throne and rebellion. I wrote about it already, so I wouldn't like to take more time with it on this thread. Also, I think you misread the quote. It was not Cat that said there were much worse things beyond the wall than MR. It was Ned. The quote is on this thread. Maybe you got confused by the construct of sentences in that dialogue.

[Modesty Lannister]

'Bed of Blood' does suggest that he was just born, so there was no time to move

Exactly.

[Hrafntýr]

I'm not adamant about it, but there are many things that point towards surviving Starks (Benjen and Ned) being in cahoots with RT=MR. Also, they share a common cause that goes beyond the Iron throne and rebellion. I wrote about it already, so I wouldn't like to take more time with it on this thread. Also, I think you misread the quote. It was not Cat that said there were much worse things beyond the wall than MR. It was Ned. The quote is on this thread. Maybe you got confused by the construct of sentences in that dialogue.

No, I wasn't confused, I also offered upthread my own analysis of that dialogue, which I read very differently from you. But here's the pertinent dialogue:

"There are darker things beyond the Wall." She glanced behind her to the heart tree the pale bark and red eyes, watching, listening, thinking its long slow thoughts.

His smile was gentle. "You listen to too many of Old Nan's stories. The Others are as dead as the children of the forest, gone eight thousand years. Maester Luwin will tell you they never lived at all. No living man has ever seen one."

I don't think it's wrong to characterize this as dismissing the threat of the WWs.

ETA: In this conversation at least, Ned considers the wildlings to be the real threat to the North, though he then softens his assessment, for the sake of quieting Catelyn's dread.

[Hrafntýr]

I don't know how many of you are in the health field,i am also an RN and a woman can bleed 4-6 weeks on average after giving birth .Some women only bleed for a week or two. it all depends on how long it takes your uterus to heal. the bleeding comes from your uterus contracting back to normal size, and the bleeding also comes from where the placenta was attached to the uterine wall.Therefore, Lya could have given birth before the events at the Tower.She could have been traveling and infection set in because her Uterus got infected from not healing.

Also from a historical point of view that has to do with just peasent folks the birthing bed is not only limited to giving bith to the child,you have to also give birth or pass the placental sac which is all part of the process.

I agree, these are real possibilities and should be kept on the table, even if the strongest likelihood, since it best explains the behavior of the KG, is that there's a baby heir apparent in the tower.

[JNR]

'Bed of Blood' does suggest that he was just born, so there was no time to move

Is the idea that it's a literal bed full of blood?

If so, how is it the KG and whoever else was there didn't change Lyanna's sheets? Seems awfully slipshod of them.

Or, if she gave birth mere minutes before Ned rode up, how do we explain this spectacular coincidence of timing?

The R+L=J camp usually interprets "bed of blood" as a vague metaphor for "place of birth."

[Metopheles]

No, I wasn't confused, I also offered upthread my own analysis of that dialogue, which I read very differently from you. But here's the pertinent dialogue:

I don't think it's wrong to characterize this as dismissing the threat of the WWs.

ETA: In this conversation at least, Ned considers the wildlings to be the real threat to the North, though he then softens his assessment, for the sake of quieting Catelyn's dread.

If Ned is convinced the WW are all gone, then he was surely not giving leave for Rhaegar to go beyond the Wall to protect the realm. He might have let him fight ghosts by this. But he wouldn't do this. no no no. If this is true, that Neddard really did not believe in Others, then he did not let Rhaegar go beyond the Wall. Then he was not in the story of Rhaegar.

The only possible way it could have been, him knowing bits and pieces of it, would be:

Lyanna, dying : Oh, promise me you send Jon to find his father. let him know his father, let him go beyond the Wall.

Ned : Why beyond the Wall?

Lyanna: Rhaegar. Rhaegar. He did it in the belief, he did, he wanted to protect the realm. For the realm, he said. The threat lies to the North. The Prince that was promised must go beyond the Wall and fight against the White Walkers.

Ned : That is nonsense. There are no White Walkers.

Lyanna, last breath: Just promise us. Promise us, Ned, promise me, Ned that you let Jon find his true father. Let him know why...why...why..he did it.

[Modesty Lannister]

No, I wasn't confused, I also offered upthread my own analysis of that dialogue, which I read very differently from you. But here's the pertinent dialogue:

I don't think it's wrong to characterize this as dismissing the threat of the WWs.

ETA: In this conversation at least, Ned considers the wildlings to be the real threat to the North, though he then softens his assessment, for the sake of quieting Catelyn's dread.

I stand corrected then. However, this conversation, regardless of how important it seems, does not diminish the fact that Benjen and Ned planned to repopulate the gift. The question is how and with whom? Wildlings are notoriously distrustful towards the "southerners" (Starks in this case). I don't see Benjen or Ned going beyond the wall and doing the job MR has already done - uniting the wildlings in order to move them south. Also, when MR talks about his trip to Winterfell, he says that he learned it from Benjen i.e. that the word travels through the north as well, but that Benjen was the origin. Furthermore, Mormont decided to go ranging when Benjen failed to return in order to get an idea where MR was and what he was up to. This idea never occurred to him while Benjen was ranging. So, it points to Benjen being a sort of go-between MR and NW. It is interesting that no wildling has ever mentioned Benjen's disappearance to Jon. etc. I know it's speculation, but that's what we are doing here. Also, why did Ned so easily agree to send Jon to the wall?

[Hrafntýr]

I stand corrected then. However, this conversation, regardless of how important it seems, does not diminish the fact that Benjen and Ned planned to repopulate the gift. The question is how and with whom? Wildlings are notoriously distrustful towards the "southerners" (Starks in this case). I don't see Benjen or Ned going beyond the wall and doing the job MR has already done - uniting the wildlings in order to move them south. Also, when MR talks about his trip to Winterfell, he says that he learned it from Benjen i.e. that the word travels through the north as well, but that Benjen was the origin. Furthermore, Mormont decided to go ranging when Benjen failed to return in order to get an idea where MR was and what he was up to. This idea never occurred to him while Benjen was ranging. So, it points to Benjen being a sort of go-between MR and NW. It is interesting that no wildling has ever mentioned Benjen's disappearance to Jon. etc. I know it's speculation, but that's what we are doing here. Also, why did Ned so easily agree to send Jon to the wall?

I'm not entirely following you here. Indeed, Jon says that Ned had talked about raising new lords to settle the lands of the Gift, but this didn't involve bringing in wildlings, it was explicitly stated to be"as a shield against wildlings." He implies that he would draw people from parts south of the wall and of the gift, since he says, "Even the promise of land will not lure men north with a winter coming on." So I don't understand exactly what you're saying about Ned, Benjen and Mance being in cahoots about repopulating the gift. Unless you're saying something else about their relations?

[Modesty Lannister]

I'm not entirely following you here. Indeed, Jon says that Ned had talked about raising new lords to settle the lands of the Gift, but this didn't involve bringing in wildlings, it was explicitly stated to be"as a shield against wildlings." He implies that he would draw people from parts south of the wall and of the gift, since he says, "Even the promise of land will not lure men north with a winter coming on." So I don't understand exactly what you're saying about Ned, Benjen and Mance being in cahoots about repopulating the gift. Unless you're saying something else about their relations?

I was not referring to that quote but to something Jon thought about re Ned's wish to repopulate the gift.

[King Benjen II]

I'm not saying that I actually believe this, but hypothetically speaking, if Lyanna and Rhaegar were married, and Aerys and Rhaegar and Elia and Rhaenys and Aegon are dead, might not Lyanna then be Queen Regent to a newborn babe? But then if she's calling the shots, why the slaughter? Guess it doesn't really make sense...though I do think that Ned and his men would appear to the KG to be a threat to the heir, despite Ned being Lyanna's brother.

I guess it would've made Lyanna the one in waiting to be named and confirmed Queen Regent.