The Curious Case of The Dragon Prince and The Winter Rose 4

[Metopheles]

Good point, but I don't think Aerys cared for RT's brood any more. He mistrusted Rhaegar. Why would he trust his children to succeed? He shipped off HIS son and heir.

Because Rhaegar was dead? Wouldn't he a monster if he said to his wife to stay and see what happens. He kept Elia hostage and safe. And he was smart in doing so. I would. Half the realm suddenly betrays you, better keep your in-laws so they remain loyal. Rhaella was pregnant. I don't know, I haven't been there. He certainly was no stupid man or dick when he did it. It was one of his more cunning moves. It ensured the line, as Stannis failed to catch them and it kept the Martells loyal to the death. Even now.

[Modesty Lannister]

Because Rhaegar was dead? Wouldn't he a monster if he said to his wife to stay and see what happens. He kept Elia hostage and safe. And he was smart in doing so. I would. Half the realm suddenly betrays you, better keep your in-laws so they remain loyal. Rhaella was pregnant. I don't know, I haven't been there. He certainly was no stupid man or dick when he did it. It was one of his more cunning moves. It ensured the line, as Stannis failed to catch them and it kept the Martells loyal to the death. Even now.

You keep twisting my words around. I didn't say he made a bad move to ship his wife and son to safety. I said he shipped them to safety because they were his, not Rhaegar's family. He did not care what ultimately happened with Rhaegar's women and children. As for strategy, I agree, that was a good strategy, but heartless towards Rhaegar's family (both Elya and Lyanna branch).

[Metopheles]

You keep twisting my words around. I didn't say he made a bad move to ship his wife and son to safety. I said he shipped them to safety because they were his, not Rhaegar's family. He did not care what ultimately happened with Rhaegar's women and children. As for strategy, I agree, that was a good strategy, but heartless towards Rhaegar's family (both Elya and Lyanna branch).

sorry if I twisted them. Not my intention.

But heartless..

He thought (if he even knew what was happening with this "lyanna") that she was safe. safe somewhere. with three mysteriously missing KG

And Elia.. ahem Maegors Hold and the Red Keep and the city walls.. can't get any safer, can you?

[Modesty Lannister]

sorry if I twisted them. Not my intention.

But heartless..

He thought (if he even knew what was happening with this "lyanna") that she was safe. safe somewhere. with three mysteriously missing KG

And Elia.. ahem Maegors Hold and the Red Keep and the city walls.. can't get any safer, can you?

Why do you think Aerys did not know the location of three knights? He knew where Rhaegar came from when he returned to KL. Even if he didn't, which would be rather odd, the knights are supposed to inform the king about their progress in fulfilling orders. That's what squires are for amongst other things. And Lyanna is a "woman that launched a 1000 ships", at least that's what Robert's camp claimed. So, it is an important hostage and Rhaegar's wife/mistress who supposedly carries his child. So, I don't think Aerys would think of her as "this Lyanna". And he was heartless. He planned to burn everyone in KL. Alya and her children included.

[Metopheles]

Why do you think Aerys did not know the location of three knights? He knew where Rhaegar came from when he returned to KL. Even if he didn't, which would be rather odd, the knights are supposed to inform the king about their progress in fulfilling orders. That's what squires are for amongst other things. And Lyanna is a "woman that launched a 1000 ships", at least that's what Robert's camp claimed. So, it is an important hostage and Rhaegar's wife/mistress who supposedly carries his child. So, I don't think Aerys would think of her as "this Lyanna". And he was heartless. He planned to burn everyone in KL. Alya and her children included.

Don't hate me: I like how Elia becomes Elya and Alya :P

How do we know he knew ? One time we say he is paranoid and mad and shit, the next moment we think of him as the pragmatic lovechild of Tywin and Tyrion.

I doubt he knew the KG where at the TOJ. How so ? Why would Rhager say where he came from ? "Oh yeah, the secret location of Lyanna is toj" no no..

And he also wanted to burn himself :wideeyed:

Just kidding, but seriously.. I doubt he knew anything about it. Why didn't he get 200 knights to bring Rhaegar and Lyanna home to KL? He did not know. Neither did Varys. my opnion. :dunno:

[Modesty Lannister]

Don't hate me: I like how Elia becomes Elya and Alya :P

How do we know he knew ? One time we say he is paranoid and mad and shit, the next moment we think of him as the pragmatic lovechild of Tywin and Tyrion.

I doubt he knew the KG where at the TOJ. How so ? Why would Rhager say where he came from ? "Oh yeah, the secret location of Lyanna is toj" no no..

And he also wanted to burn himself :wideeyed:

Just kidding, but seriously.. I doubt he knew anything about it. Why didn't he get 200 knights to bring Rhaegar and Lyanna home to KL? He did not know. Neither did Varys. my opnion. :dunno:

We have completely left the original thread and I hate that, but there is no way AT wouldn't have known where Lyanna was AFTER RT came back to KL.

1. RT had to answer a direct question on the issue by AT or face being suspected yet again of plotting against his father.

2. Even if AT didn't ask RT where Lyanna was (and why wouldn't he ask that question), the three knights that guarded the ToJ were obviously loyal to him. Their conversation with NS proves that. So, why would they keep their location secret from the king who they are loyal to? They could easily send a squire back to KL to inform the king of their location. That would be a standard procedure and a logical one. Why are you overcomplicating this? In order to prove that the knights got their orders from RT?

[Rhaegar I Targaryen]

We have completely left the original thread and I hate that, but there is no way AT wouldn't have known where Lyanna was AFTER RT came back to KL.

1. RT had to answer a direct question on the issue by AT or face being suspected yet again of plotting against his father.

2. Even if AT didn't ask RT where Lyanna was (and why wouldn't he ask that question), the three knights that guarded the ToJ were obviously loyal to him. Their conversation with NS proves that. So, why would they keep their location secret from the king who they are loyal to? They could easily send a squire back to KL to inform the king of their location. That would be a standard procedure and a logical one. Why are you overcomplicating this? In order to prove that the knights got their orders from RT?

The realm was not going to be made whole again with Aerys as their king. I think even Gerald Hightower could understand this. It's entirely possible that they were taking orders from Rhaegar at the time. It's also entirely possible that Rhaegar insisted that he would not return to KL unless Hightower stayed behind.

Remember, Rhaegar spent his entire life around these men. They knew he was capable and dutiful, and they knew that Aerys was mad. It's not unreasonable to assume that they go their orders from Rhaegar.

[Modesty Lannister]

The realm was not going to be made whole again with Aerys as their king. I think even Gerald Hightower could understand this. It's entirely possible that they were taking orders from Rhaegar at the time. It's also entirely possible that Rhaegar insisted that he would not return to KL unless Hightower stayed behind.

Remember, Rhaegar spent his entire life around these men. They knew he was capable and dutiful, and they knew that Aerys was mad. It's not unreasonable to assume that they go their orders from Rhaegar.

But, it is even less unreasonable to assume they got their orders from the king. OK. There are two schools of thoughts on this. We can argue this until the cows come home. I'd like us to go back to the original thread, though.

[Metopheles]

We have completely left the original thread and I hate that, but there is no way AT wouldn't have known where Lyanna was AFTER RT came back to KL.

1. RT had to answer a direct question on the issue by AT or face being suspected yet again of plotting against his father.

2. Even if AT didn't ask RT where Lyanna was (and why wouldn't he ask that question), the three knights that guarded the ToJ were obviously loyal to him. Their conversation with NS proves that. So, why would they keep their location secret from the king who they are loyal to? They could easily send a squire back to KL to inform the king of their location. That would be a standard procedure and a logical one. Why are you overcomplicating this? In order to prove that the knights got their orders from RT?

Aerys: Rhaeger where have you been, the country is burning, who is Lyanna and where are my KG?

Rhaegar: ..

He did not have to answer. He could have kept shut. If he was plotting against his father, why would he tell the truth ? Why would he say where his love is, knowing Aerys would forbid it and do her harm?

And if in our world a son or daughter comes home late and is asked where he was, he could simply run to his room and shut the door. Easy as this. And we don't know how long he was in KL. Just to pick up his armor and tell a word to Jaime. Jaime didn't even mention he went to Elia. So yeah.. I think Rhaegar was in a hurry and had no nerve for his fathers tantrums.

[Modesty Lannister]

Aerys: Rhaeger where have you been, the country is burning, who is Lyanna and where are my KG?

Rhaegar: ..

He did not have to answer. He could have kept shut. If he was plotting against his father, why would he tell the truth ? Why would he say where his love is, knowing Aerys would forbid it and do her harm?

And if in our world a son or daughter comes home late and is asked where he was, he could simply run to his room and shut the door. Easy as this. And we don't know how long he was in KL. Just to pick up his armor and tell a word to Jaime. Jaime didn't even mention he went to Elia. So yeah.. I think Rhaegar was in a hurry and had no nerve for his fathers tantrums.

As I said, we can argue this endlessly since both scenarios could have happened. I think one is more likely, you think the other is, but this has nothing to do with the thread and I am keen on hearing thoughts about the thread.

[King Benjen II]

Fron a PM in case you notice it ain't my writing style :P

I'd like to mention something about the cremation quote. I'm not likely to post it in the thread because I don't want to start a firestorm (no pun intended). We have evidence in the novels of people being burned but not dead, due to glamours. No question about that. But the term cremation is pretty specific. I've never heard the word cremation used for anything other than burning a dead body. That's really the only problem I see with the theory of Rhaegar being Mance, but depending on GRRM it's not an insurmountable one.

[King Benjen II]

Lyanna and Elya and their children are Rhaegar's. Aerys shipped his wife and child to safety, not Rhaegar's.

We don't have any proof that Lyanna and Rhaegar were ever together beyond him giving her the laurel.

[King Benjen II]

???? But he did know the location, because the send the KG know the location they are bound to inform the king.

What is your source for this?

Good point, but I don't think Aerys cared for RT's brood any more. He mistrusted Rhaegar. Why would he trust his children to succeed? He shipped off HIS son and heir.

Aerys shipped off Rhaegar? When?

[King Benjen II]

Can we get back on topic please?

Perhaps...what are the implications of MR=RT being true?

[Modesty Lannister]

We don't have any proof that Lyanna and Rhaegar were ever together beyond him giving her the laurel.

No, we don't, but so far everybody was labouring under an assumption that they were and that Jon is Rhaegar's son. At least on this thread. In this particular situation - Lyanna being in ToJ (and if we want to play devil's advocate, we can say that we have no proof that Lyanna was there at all, which I find more interesting than ditching R+l=J), in my view, it wouldn't change Aerys's perception of her as a valuable hostage. After all, her father and brother have already died for her and the rebels claim it is her they want to liberate in the first place.

[Modesty Lannister]

What is your source for this?

Aerys shipped off Rhaegar? When?

1. The source are the statements of the knights at the ToJ. They remain loyal to Aerys after he was murdered and it would be a stretch to assume they were not loyal to him before he died. And being loyal, they would report their location to the king. Why would you hide your location from your boss if you are loyal?

2. No, he shipped off his wife and remaining son Viserys to Dragonstone, but failed to ship Elia and her children away from KL. Metopheles was arguing AT did it because he wanted to spread heirs to the throne to different locations (KL, Dragonstone and presumably ToJ, if we stick to assumption that R+L=J). Metopheles thought that would have been a wise strategic move. I agree that it would, if he had been wise and not mad. I argue that he mistrusted Rhaegar and that he held Lyanna hostage in the ToJ and Elia and her children hostages in KL in order to force RT to fight the rebels after months of hiding. If that was indeed the case, after RT's "death", which for AT would be a real death, he wouldn't care about Elia's safety, while treating Lyanna as a valuable potential bargaining chip with the rebels. While the king's son and wife were in Dragonstone, Rhaegar's wife and children were in KL, which AT planned to burn to the ground and that proves he didn't care for their safety in my view.

[Armstark]

1. The source are the statements of the knights at the ToJ. They remain loyal to Aerys after he was murdered and it would be a stretch to assume they were not loyal to him before he died. And being loyal, they would report their location to the king. Why would you hide your location from your boss if you are loyal?

Or they remained loyal to House Targaryen or to Prince Rhaegar. We have no proof either way.

[Hrafntýr]

Okay, so I see the call to return to the OP, but, if I'm not mistaken, the question of "whose orders were the KG following" pertains to the MR=RT topic because there was some possibility that Rhaegar's plan may have involved him, post Trident death fake-out (which seems a stretch to me, but that's the theory), him meeting back up with Lyanna and his child by her. Thus, an order like, "You three KG, keep her and the child protected at the ToJ til I come back." Oh, and there even could have been a statement something like Stannis gives to Justin Massey, "You may hear that I've died, but still do what I say." In other words, it might speak to an expectation by RT that he had a plan. What he didn't account for would have been Lyanna dying.

You're simply missing, my pardons, that it makes no sense for all 3 to come out and die if their goal was to protect an heir apparent. The heir apparent in that case would be completely at the mercy of whoever was victorious in the fight.

I concede they may have made the most horrible strategic decision possible in their goal to protect the heir apparent.

I don't think I was exactly missing it, and I recognize it was a gamble, but I don't think it was a gamble with long odds. Those three ought to have been able to beat those seven, were it not for whatever hijinks Howland Reed employed. Seriously, Arthur Dayne with Dawn is generally acknowledge as the best swordsman in living memory. We've seen top tier swordsmen beat far worse odds. And we don't know, really, anything about the tower or why Rhaegar picked it, if he picked it as a "last stand" or as a launching place for his next move, or what. I agree, for us normal folks, taking tail and running with the baby to safety seems like the most logical move, but they've got orders.

I have often thought this myself. It took Aerys murdering the Warden of the North and his heir to plunge the realm into chaos, I don't think it would have come to war with Lyanna's disappearance alone.

I don't think people always realize just how significant marriages between Brandon/Cat and Lyanna/Robert would be. It would bind the North with the Stormlands and the Riverlands. With the dragons gone, I think it was entirely possible that these regions would have declared independence once again. It's like they said when Robb was proclaimed King in the North-- they bent the knee to the dragons.

I see some parallels between Aerys and Cersei's paranoia. I will expand on this thought in time, but don't want to derail the thread. I promise tho, it is to the point ;)

This is a very important point, and would be an interesting topic for further discussion. Damn Rickard with his "Southern ambitions." That's really what got the ball rolling.

I think we all agree Aerys' orders would trump Rhaegar's.

Still, what is your explanation for why Aerys didn't order them back to King's Landing, when he Robert was marching on King's Landing, and Aerys' life was in obvious jeopardy?

Aerys was certainly paranoid, and these three KG were the most powerful defenders he had. I can't imagine why he wouldn't have ordered them to return.

Notice also that this issue doesn't crop up if Rhaegar was the one who ordered to stay there (as GRRM's interview suggests, and the app states). Aerys couldn't order them back because he quite simply had no idea where they were.

I agree with this wholeheartedly, it's a major argument against the idea that the KG at the ToJ were following Aerys' orders, not Rhaegar's. As is:

The same fear of certain doom that led him to ship Viserys and his pregnant wife Rhaella to Dragonstone.

If you know you're in deep shit, and you can command the Sword of the Morning, the White Bull, and Oswhell Whent to come defend you, you almost certainly will.

It's a curious thing that Aerys never did make any such attempt to bargain, using that chip... which he could have long before the Trident, when he knew his son Rhaegar might be killed.

I remembered that Aerys was sufficiently sane that he sent his son Viserys and his wife to far safer location, to ensure some Targaryens at least would live.

I agree that if Aerys had control of these 3 KG and knew that they had possession of Lyanna, it would be an obvious move to bring them to KL. It's a bargaining chip not only against the known rebels (Robert and Ned), but also against Rhaegar, if Aerys has doubts about Rhaegar's loyalty. So, I agree, Modesty Lannister, that Aerys is making distinctions between his own offspring and those of Rhaegar, though one can argue that he needs to keep Elia in KL to ensure the loyalty of Dorne, one of the few regions he's still got behind him.

[Modesty Lannister]

So, I agree, Modesty Lannister, that Aerys is making distinctions between his own offspring and those of Rhaegar, though one can argue that he needs to keep Elia in KL to ensure the loyalty of Dorne, one of the few regions he's still got behind him.

I agree with that from the onset. Elia and her children, as I said, were effectively Aerys's hostages. They could have been used for both purposes - controlling Rhaegar and Dorne. It makes perfect sense. What does not make sense to me at all is why would Aerys lose track of his three best knights? And how? I agree there is quite a parallel between Cersei's paranoia and that of Aerys. In that sense, one can see a parallel between Aerys losing sight of his three best knights and Cersei losing sight of Jaime after he left for Riverrun. However, the former acted in the hight of war and the latter in the aftermath of war. To be honest, I was hoping people would spell out some theories about what happened in the ToJ IF RT planned to go north as it is postulated in this thread. I have (or I think I have) much better idea about the wall bit of this theory. As for the ToJ, nothing makes sense to me. Since all we know about that episode, we know from Ned's feverish head while in a black cell and I didn't read the books that talk about these famous knights in detail, I just don't have a clear theory. All that makes sense to me is that Lyanna was a hostage of the king and that was NOT a part of Raegar's plan. I also think at least Dayne should have known what the plan was, but his honour dictated that he has to obey his orders.

[Armstark]

I agree that we should abandon this discussion about who gave what orders. Everybody has made their point clear and we will not come to an agreement no matter how much we discuss it.

So to get back to the topic: If Mance is Rhaegar who knows about it? And who must know for the theory to work?

It has been suggested that Ned knew, is there any clue for that? Other than his statement 'the king-beyond-the-wall is no threat to us' which I interpret rather differently.

Other people I think who must have known are Qhorin Halfhand, Denys Mallister, Maester Aemon and Bloodraven. Maybe Mormont as well although I can't see how that knowledge can be brought in line with his actions.

Who else did know and are there any clues for that?