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The Curious Case of The Dragon Prince and The Winter Rose 4


King Benjen II

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So far the only candidate for AA is Tyrion then. Or Dany if she slays a Lannister, since she has killed her husband.

Here I'd like to quote Yoda :

A prophecy that misread could have been

They all waited for some chosen one, a guy that brings balance to the force, then they saw the first Skywalker and he killed 99% of the jedis. Then they found the second Skywalker and he failed this too, and then the first Skywalker actually fulfilled his prophecy by killing the emperor. So...yeah.. speaking of fulfilling prophecies in fantasy works ^_^

These characters are so obsessed with prophecies that they forget that they could just be stories. But I think if there would be any of these heroes, then it is obviously Daenerys Stormborn. She fulfills every aspect. Jon and Davos and Theon fulfill only parts.

And I think Tyrion and/or Theons purpose will be to write down these stories. How it all played out. Would fit perfectly to Tyrion's character. And Theon has also seen so much of the world

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Funny you mention Harry Potter and those horcruxes. I was set on Voldemort being in Harry's scar since the first time I picked up a book (which was book 3 after I'd seen the movie as I had thought Harry Hype was annoying and didn't even want to touch the books... woo boy, was I ever glad when I did pick them up. That world is seriously one of the most fascinating for its weaving of magical things into our own world.) However, I really hated that we didn't get any iota of a whisper of the word "horcrux" throughout oh five of the seven books and then suddenly BAM oh, wait, so this is a magical concept that isn't at all hidden and everyone should have known it the whole time but only Dumbledore was clever enough to suss it out, plus HALLOWS TOO. I hate the final book of Harry Potter. I really don't believe it was JK Rowling's intention throughout the first five books and if so I'm completely disappointed. (I never really read up on what she had to say about the ending.)



That being said... that's why a lot of the time I get annoyed with theories and theorizing based on details that honestly aren't even details, inferences that only some people seem to pick up on, and things that are out of left field. You have this great, fantastic world built up, this amazing story with definite themes going on, great symbolism, and then suddenly... SOMETHING ELSE OR SIMILAR BUT DIFFERENT HAPPENS!



Maybe I'm old school but I find there is great feeling in the stories that are formulaic, even if you can figure them out ahead of time. They resonate on a human level without all these added twists and topsy turvy things going on. Maybe I'm just going to be disappointed by the end of these books if that really is what's going on because the story I've read so far is fantastic and could end so, so well... but if all this stuff about double glamours, and eye color, and everyone being a secret Targaryen because that's the only way to be interesting comes true then I'll be sad.



The only remote way that Mance being Rhaegar would be satisfying to me is if he has good reasons for all of his jerk BS leaving everyone to suffer after his war and his son too, and if he has to give those reasons as he lay dying in the snow and for real this time. And even then I would be disappointed that Mance had to be Rhaegar to be cool.



And unfortunately I can see GRRM making Mance Rhaegar. I mean even the sound of his name isn't that far off. That was one of the original things that caught my "ear" interally as I read.



I really would like to know why people think Rhaegar had motivation to go North hidden as Mance rather than go North as Rhaegar. I mean, what makes this course of action better than the other? Because there are issues.



If Rhaegar plots to do this and subs in a double at the Trident and the double dies, then he would have to know the sub would die, and by association assume that KL would fall to the rebellion. In effect he is then leaving his children, his wife, and the rest of his family in the hands of blood thirsty rebels. That's a great guy for you right there. I don't even need to consider the effects on the realm and his lack of care for the people of Westeros because it's enough to hate him for just simply abandoning his family to people who are likely to slaughter them.



If Rhaegar plots to do this and subs in a double at the Trident, then what the heck does the double do when they win? Surely he would have to go back to KL, and how would Rhaegar know that the double would do as Rhaegar would do on return? He talks to Jaime about changes; he couldn't possibly be sure that a double would carry out those plans on return to the capital. He could have been causing another catastrophe by doing this, making the people suffer even more.



And lastly... if Rhaegar subs in a double and the double dies, why the heck doesn't Rhaegar gather his remaining men and march on KL as himself before attempting this Northern plot? Why would he not attempt to regain the realm before running off to the north? Why would he literally neglect every duty he had as the heir to the Iron Throne of Westeros? I agree he felt the prophecy was important and it could have been the impetus for his dalliance with Lyanna, and in that case he doesn't seem to be dutiful, but I get the drift from his conversation with Jaime that he regrets messing everything up and is aiming to take responsibility on his return from winning the war. So why say any of that to Jaime if he intends to run off north and pretend to be a guy on the Wall who MAYBE MIGHT BE ABLE to unite the ever-squabbling WIldling clans?



These are the things that count against this theory for me more so than eye color or cloak colors or anything small like that.



Again, where is there indication in the books that Mance is up to something other than just trying to get the wildlings through the Wall and find the horn of Joramun? Anything like this would add some weight to the theory that Mance is more than what he seems. I can't recall anything but I have only re-read the books all the way through twice and sometimes my memory is faulty with what is actually in the books and what I've read people saying about them. Also I only have the app and ADwD on my nook so it isn't easy to search the text as the other books are all in paperback on my shelf...


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And unfortunately I can see GRRM making Mance Rhaegar. I mean even the sound of his name isn't that far off. That was one of the original things that caught my "ear" interally as I read.

Love that :D If you can imagine it, without wanting it, then I believe our theory so much more :)

The Potter thing, closingly : Actually the most repetitive or soap opera like book series. guy gets killed, guy shows up, gets killed shows up gets killed, every fucking book. But I love the third book, the willow part the most of all the story. the snape stuff. Snape being the guy that saves Harry from the dementors the first time (not during the time travel).. they seriously fucked that up in the movies when they made out of the creature with antlers a stag, even if it was in the books more neutral. It could easily have been snape's patronus.(which it was)

the last book together with half blood saved the whole series. four and five were horrible.

Benjen :

I would like to get to something super important.

Dalla's boy. maybe he gets cut in the series.

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It appears we need a new subject for the remaining pages. We have gone terribly off course.

I think we are doing fine. All threads tend to stray off course. That's the nature of debates. However, I'd like to hear more about the issues setmyheartonfire raised. Some of them we did address already, but not all.

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Basically yes. I think both him and maester Aemon devoted most of their lives to figuring out the ins and outs of various prophecies that could relate to the Targaryen dynasty. I think that was the reason for RT to go Beyond-the-Wall. However, maester Aemon on his deathbed realises they have misinterpreted AA prophecy, talks about burning glass candles etc. As things stand now, I think RT finished the first part of his quest. He found the Horn of Winter thus securing the Wall and resettled the wildlings (united this time) thus taking hundreds of thousands of zombie soldiers from the enemy and turning them into useful fighters, peasants, workers and breeders. So, even metaphorically, he separated life from death with a semi-secured Wall. Now, he has to find other elements in order to face the Others. One is certainly TPTWP or Jon as RT believes. However, he might not be Jon. Then, he has to get the Lightbringer whatever it is. Dany will show up at some point as AA. I believe RT will finish his quest and leave the final showdown to AA, TPHWP and a third dragon whoever they may be. Remember that maester Aegon desperately urged Sam to tell Dany that "dragon has three heads" and that he was too old to ride it. So, as things stand now, the riders may be Jon, Dany, Aegon, even RT, but I personally do not think that is how things will unravel. RT will die before the final showdown probably saving one of the dragon-riders. And he will be cremated with honours as is Targaryen custom. However, the role of Bran would be important in all of this. I think he will basically become Brand the Builder II who will protect the Wall from crumbling and rebuild Winterfell from the cave that he will never leave again. I know it's off topic, but what do you think?

Ok but now we have to find evidence to back this up. Did Rhaegar go to Braavos and become a FM? His only absence is during RR.

I say if there will be a PTWP or AA we won't know who it is until it happens. As in not Jon or Dany but someone random. GRRM has made a point of saying heroes become heroes by their deeds and anyone can become a hero ala John McClane.

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Ok but now we have to find evidence to back this up. Did Rhaegar go to Braavos and become a FM? His only absence is during RR.

I say if there will be a PTWP or AA we won't know who it is until it happens. As in not Jon or Dany but someone random. GRRM has made a point of saying heroes become heroes by their deeds and anyone can become a hero ala John McClane.

I don't see Rhaegar fighting the Others (death) by following a cult of death (FM). And why is everyone obsessed with FM? We discussed potential disguises to death. I see FM connected to the Iron Bank more than anything else. Professional killers enforcing debt payments, steeling valuable secrets etc. If RT=MR he is protecting life, not worshiping death. I am more interested in potential ideas about MR knowing the location of Bloodraven. With wise maester Aemon on the Wall and Bloodraven in the cave, what sort of stuff may RT know? Basically, everything.

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Honestly cannot see how anyone could think that Mance Raydar is actually Rhaegar Targaryen.



"His second last name sounds kinda like his first", must be the same guy then.



So to come to this conclusion, you assume Rhaegar planted a double then ditched the trident battle fleeing North to the nights watch, noone in the nights watch ever assumes they have a Prince in their midst, Prince then breaks his vows and flees North of the wall to become the wildling King-beyond-the-wall, all in the name of taking back his throne. Now that is a spectacular effort.



Thankfully I have no real fear of this turning out book factual, I think i'd find it hard to forgive such an absurd plot.



Cannot stress how much I hate this idea!



Rhaegar is dead. Pretty sure GRRM's has stated as much in interviews. leave him dead.

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Re: my post and beyond.

One of the things on the show that was interesting with Mance and Jon was that the wildlings knew Mance would want to talk with "Ned Stark's bastard." Clearly the overt implication would be that Jon is a strategic asset for their leader. It's the most obvious conclusion to be reached by viewers; here is one of Winterfell we could use to get through the Wall. However, Mance's actions when he "meets" Jon seem to be slightly more than that to me. Sure, Mance is trying to get Jon's measure by observing him first and putting the questions to him later. But I guess you could argue also that there was more to it than that. Jon doesn't act strangely but Mance kind of does.

I don't remember if this is implied in the text. The odd overtone of their meeting, Mance's behavior. Mostly I recall Jon's reasoning for "turn cloaking" and Mance seeming pretty badass.

So this is one of the passages that might hint at "extra" meaning in the texts.

Of course I'm one who believes the show is indicative of the overall story because of the condensed visual medium of TV so some of you may not think the same but I still think analysis of some of the Mance/Jon, Aemon/Jon/Sam, Qhorin/Jon, and even Mormont/Jon passages would help establish Mance's motivation and/or Rhaegar's if your theory is true.

FWIW, I did also think H'gar was awful close to R'gar :P But I also didn't know if I was pronouncing it correctly either.

Maybe GRRM exclaims HAR when he's amused but GAR when he's irritated and murderous so the face changing assassin became H'GAR.

Rayder was a little less confusing phonetically.

Honestly cannot see how anyone could think that Mance Raydar is actually Rhaegar Targaryen.

"His second last name sounds kinda like his first", must be the same guy then.

So to come to this conclusion, you assume Rhaegar planted a double then ditched the trident battle fleeing North to the nights watch, noone in the nights watch ever assumes they have a Prince in their midst, Prince then breaks his vows and flees North of the wall to become the wildling King-beyond-the-wall, all in the name of taking back his throne. Now that is a spectacular effort.

Thankfully I have no real fear of this turning out book factual, I think i'd find it hard to forgive such an absurd plot.

Cannot stress how much I hate this idea!

Rhaegar is dead. Pretty sure GRRM's has stated as much in interviews. leave him dead.

This is what I have against the theory in general. That RT would have to be a giant ass to Westeros after he already seemingly realized he was a giant ass to Westeros and was determined to make up for it.

That and GRRM saying Rhaegar was cremated; I'm 99% sure he absolutely means Rhaegar was cremated, and not a double.

But, being that MR=RT was a possibility in my head on my first reading, I do find these threads interesting even if now I don't necessarily "agree".

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Basically yes. I think both him and maester Aemon devoted most of their lives to figuring out the ins and outs of various prophecies that could relate to the Targaryen dynasty. I think that was the reason for RT to go Beyond-the-Wall. However, maester Aemon on his deathbed realises they have misinterpreted AA prophecy, talks about burning glass candles etc. As things stand now, I think RT finished the first part of his quest. He found the Horn of Winter thus securing the Wall and resettled the wildlings (united this time) thus taking hundreds of thousands of zombie soldiers from the enemy and turning them into useful fighters, peasants, workers and breeders. So, even metaphorically, he separated life from death with a semi-secured Wall. Now, he has to find other elements in order to face the Others. One is certainly TPTWP or Jon as RT believes. However, he might not be Jon. Then, he has to get the Lightbringer whatever it is. Dany will show up at some point as AA. I believe RT will finish his quest and leave the final showdown to AA, TPHWP and a third dragon whoever they may be. Remember that maester Aegon desperately urged Sam to tell Dany that "dragon has three heads" and that he was too old to ride it. So, as things stand now, the riders may be Jon, Dany, Aegon, even RT, but I personally do not think that is how things will unravel. RT will die before the final showdown probably saving one of the dragon-riders. And he will be cremated with honours as is Targaryen custom. However, the role of Bran would be important in all of this. I think he will basically become Brand the Builder II who will protect the Wall from crumbling and rebuild Winterfell from the cave that he will never leave again. I know it's off topic, but what do you think?

Ok but now we have to find evidence to back this up. Did Rhaegar go to Braavos and become a FM? His only absence is during RR.

I say if there will be a PTWP or AA we won't know who it is until it happens. As in not Jon or Dany but someone random. GRRM has made a point of saying heroes become heroes by their deeds and anyone can become a hero ala John McClane.

I'm not all opposed to the interpretation that Rhaegar was prophecy obsessed. It's less clear that Aemon was, in my opinion; it could be argued that he's so deeply taken to heart his vows that he left all that behind, sometimes to his great sorrow. Though he might have helped to take in a child MR, in my view, and given him a "bastard" identity. It would make Aemon a parallel to Ned, hiding a Targ identity (assuming L+R=J) for the sake of protecting the child. But that's a different line of inquiry, not for this thread. Though it might help explain Mance's responsiveness to Jon's "bastard" explanation for his desertion of the NW.

But also, so far as I remember, Aemon does NOT mention AA, he talks about Dany as the PtwP. I'm not saying that RT might not have somewhere along the way made a connection between PtwP and AA, but Aemon doesn't do so, to my knowledge.

I see PtwP, AA, and the Last Hero as three cultural variants of the same story, the last of them the one most obviously related to the WWs. It's possible that RT made that connection, and turned his attention to the North.

Re: my post and beyond.

One of the things on the show that was interesting with Mance and Jon was that the wildlings knew Mance would want to talk with "Ned Stark's bastard." Clearly the overt implication would be that Jon is a strategic asset for their leader. It's the most obvious conclusion to be reached by viewers; here is one of Winterfell we could use to get through the Wall. However, Mance's actions when he "meets" Jon seem to be slightly more than that to me. Sure, Mance is trying to get Jon's measure by observing him first and putting the questions to him later. But I guess you could argue also that there was more to it than that. Jon doesn't act strangely but Mance kind of does.

I don't remember if this is implied in the text. The odd overtone of their meeting, Mance's behavior. Mostly I recall Jon's reasoning for "turn cloaking" and Mance seeming pretty badass.

So this is one of the passages that might hint at "extra" meaning in the texts.

But doesn't it make total sense that the wildlings in general would have a real interest in Ned Stark's bastard? All the past Kings-beyond-the-Wall have met their ends through Starks. The Starks would likely have the same sort of "legendary" status among the wildlings as the Kings-beyond-the-Wall have in the North. Not to mention the shared mythology of some sort of connection between King of Winter and King in the North. A sense of the significance of Winterfell. To me, one doesn't need really to look beyond culture to explain the interest in Jon. Oh, not to mention that First Ranger Benjen Stark was/is a Stark.

setmyheartafire: would you say more about what strikes you as "strange" about Mance's reception of Jon? They're both sizing one another up (and both do a pretty good job of it) and they're both gathering information. What's "off" in Mance's behavior?

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setmyheartafire: would you say more about what strikes you as "strange" about Mance's reception of Jon? They're both sizing one another up (and both do a pretty good job of it) and they're both gathering information. What's "off" in Mance's behavior?

If you read some of the posts on this thread, we have commented at length on the first meeting between MR and JS, which is very very strange indeed.

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If you read some of the posts on this thread, we have commented at length on the first meeting between MR and JS, which is very very strange indeed.




thank you.


Can't agree more. I had it so with repeating the same things over and over again. It's not like this thread has thousands of pages all mixed. We try to keep it linear, so it is quite easy to just flip back and look it up.


Don't take it personal ;)



I'd like to remind two things : one, we are more than half through this thread, at around page 20 they close it.


two, so what to consider next about Mance ? I mentioned the Hermann saga as direct link to Mance, so maybe consider this, or we keep it to the text from the books and check some other scenes, some events that happened with Mance OR Rhaegar and look into these.


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thank you.

Can't agree more. I had it so with repeating the same things over and over again. It's not like this thread has thousands of pages all mixed. We try to keep it linear, so it is quite easy to just flip back and look it up.

Don't take it personal ;)

I'd like to remind two things : one, we are more than half through this thread, at around page 20 they close it.

two, so what to consider next about Mance ? I mentioned the Hermann saga as direct link to Mance, so maybe consider this, or we keep it to the text from the books and check some other scenes, some events that happened with Mance OR Rhaegar and look into these.

I'm not taking it personally, I was part of those conversations, and offered my own counterinterpretation. It just seemed like setmyheartonfire might have had some different perspective than those offered above. I love the interaction between Mance and Jon, and it seems to me that that scene is GRRM giving us his "Jon the watchful and perceptive one" (which Benjen emphasizes way back in Winterfell at the start of GoT), and it's supposed to be mostly about Jon understanding human motivation and finding the through line in Mance's story and creating a story for himself that would fit what Mance knows about him (and has seen in person at WF!) and create bonds of identification between them: hey, we're the outsiders, we can be so much more than Westerosi culture forces us to be, hey, you're so cool for rejecting that and striking out alone to do great things, etc. Oh, and look at me, so preoccupied with my poor bastard status that you don't have to worry that I've got bigger concerns. Anyhow, as you say, no point, I guess, in rehashing things, the discussion upthread (or maybe it was last thread) brought in good arguments, but I do think that my comment just above is pertinent: the name Stark means something among wildlings.

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My thanks to the posters Modesty Lannister and Metopheles for their welcome.


As for Dalla's boy, there is a widely accepted theory that he might be heading with Marwyn towards Meereen. My personal belief is that the storyline with the baby swap will be cut from the show. Although, there is already Gilly and her bady. It remains to be seen. Sorry about the off-topic reference.


I would dare to say that (if the theory is true) Rhaegar and Maester Aemon had had a meticulous plan about everything, including the safety of Rhaegar's kids and wife (and Lyanna and Jon Snow). Their only flaw had been that they couldn't have predicted the ruthlessness of Tywin Lannister.


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My thanks to the posters Modesty Lannister and Metopheles for their welcome.

As for Dalla's boy, there is a widely accepted theory that he might be heading with Marwyn towards Meereen. My personal belief is that the storyline with the baby swap will be cut from the show. Although, there is already Gilly and her bady. It remains to be seen. Sorry about the off-topic reference.

I would dare to say that (if the theory is true) Rhaegar and Maester Aemon had had a meticulous plan about everything, including the safety of Rhaegar's kids and wife (and Lyanna and Jon Snow). Their only flaw had been that they couldn't have predicted the ruthlessness of Tywin Lannister.

Not to spoil anything

Gilly and Sam leave next week, according to the promo.

I hope I don't tell bullshit here, but in the video I saw they were on a carriage with a babe

So much for the swap-change

I think Marwyn will be alone, the babe would be a distraction, I guess.

Anyway, to the Mance interaction. Guys, this was a trick. Mance tested Jon. He wanted to see him before he met him. Like Barristan being under other name before revealing. Mance kept himself in the back and literally played the fool and let Tormund do the thing. He wanted to see what Jon would recognize as king. What Jon overall has as images of people. All interactions with Jon were kinda tricks. For what results, I am not sure. But he waned to get to know Jon(or his son who knows) before Jon gets to know him. He tells him some random things, feeds the crow some information, true or not, and wants to see what he does with it. Like telling a new friend a secret and look if the next day it's all over twitter.

The whole "uh i want to be one of you because i am a bastard" is just bullshit. In that moment it is also that Mance realises he is not really changing sides. In the series however.. completely different. I think because of that. I would not have bought it if Jon said the same thing as in the books. The "I wanna fight for the side that fights for the living" makes much more sense.

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Honestly cannot see how anyone could think that Mance Raydar is actually Rhaegar Targaryen.

"His second last name sounds kinda like his first", must be the same guy then.

So to come to this conclusion, you assume Rhaegar planted a double then ditched the trident battle fleeing North to the nights watch, noone in the nights watch ever assumes they have a Prince in their midst, Prince then breaks his vows and flees North of the wall to become the wildling King-beyond-the-wall, all in the name of taking back his throne. Now that is a spectacular effort.

Thankfully I have no real fear of this turning out book factual, I think i'd find it hard to forgive such an absurd plot.

Cannot stress how much I hate this idea!

Rhaegar is dead. Pretty sure GRRM's has stated as much in interviews. leave him dead.

This is what happens when you have such long stretches between books. All the sane theories have been discussed over and over, so we are left with the insane ones.

There's even a SSM where GRRM directly says Rhaegar was cremated. Stated as simple fact, no fancy word-play or ambiguity, no obfuscation.

To say this thread is built on a House of Cards is giving too much credit to the structural integrity of thin slices of paper.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Asshai.com_Forum_Chat

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Re: my post and beyond.

One of the things on the show that was interesting with Mance and Jon was that the wildlings knew Mance would want to talk with "Ned Stark's bastard." Clearly the overt implication would be that Jon is a strategic asset for their leader. It's the most obvious conclusion to be reached by viewers; here is one of Winterfell we could use to get through the Wall. However, Mance's actions when he "meets" Jon seem to be slightly more than that to me. Sure, Mance is trying to get Jon's measure by observing him first and putting the questions to him later. But I guess you could argue also that there was more to it than that. Jon doesn't act strangely but Mance kind of does.

I don't remember if this is implied in the text. The odd overtone of their meeting, Mance's behavior. Mostly I recall Jon's reasoning for "turn cloaking" and Mance seeming pretty badass.

So this is one of the passages that might hint at "extra" meaning in the texts.

Of course I'm one who believes the show is indicative of the overall story because of the condensed visual medium of TV so some of you may not think the same but I still think analysis of some of the Mance/Jon, Aemon/Jon/Sam, Qhorin/Jon, and even Mormont/Jon passages would help establish Mance's motivation and/or Rhaegar's if your theory is true.

FWIW, I did also think H'gar was awful close to R'gar :P But I also didn't know if I was pronouncing it correctly either.

Maybe GRRM exclaims HAR when he's amused but GAR when he's irritated and murderous so the face changing assassin became H'GAR.

Rayder was a little less confusing phonetically.

This is what I have against the theory in general. That RT would have to be a giant ass to Westeros after he already seemingly realized he was a giant ass to Westeros and was determined to make up for it.

That and GRRM saying Rhaegar was cremated; I'm 99% sure he absolutely means Rhaegar was cremated, and not a double.

But, being that MR=RT was a possibility in my head on my first reading, I do find these threads interesting even if now I don't necessarily "agree".

He even may be referring to a real cremation that hasn't actually happened yet.

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This is what happens when you have such long stretches between books. All the sane theories have been discussed over and over, so we are left with the insane ones.

There's even a SSM where GRRM directly says Rhaegar was cremated. Stated as simple fact, no fancy word-play or ambiguity, no obfuscation.

To say this thread is built on a House of Cards is giving too much credit to the structural integrity of thin slices of paper.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Asshai.com_Forum_Chat

No way !!!

O M G

I guess you are right. Gods, if only I knew about that statement. I am so silly to believe this theory here. Thanks for that link, now I am certain again that Rhaegar is dead and Mance is being kept warm by a coat of skins and the earth goes around the moon whilst the sun goes around the moon.

Sorry, but you had to take this. No offense, although you gave us plenty of offense.

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Right. Like that quote wasn't specifically addressed in the OP.

That's my whole point. A direct statement from the author, an author not known for giving absolutes, one who will always try to leave wiggle room in his answers.

Your first post starts with GRRM dismissing out of hand your entire theory, but then you try and build your theory on top that dismissal.

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