The Curious Case of The Dragon Prince and The Winter Rose 4

[Hrafntýr]

So, to switch "sides" of the discussion for a moment, the one way in which I could see Rhaegar shifting his whole direction was if, in his reading, he made the connection between tPtwP and the Last Hero, which would be the tie-in with the North, the Others, Winter etc. Of course WE don't know how the story of the Last Hero really winds up, other than that he was somehow victorious in the end. But he does "set out into the dead lands" and there's a sword (plus the horse, dog, and dozen companions...we haven't seen Mance recreating these things), so if Mance made some connection between this Targ prophecy, perhaps also the Azor Ahai bit, and the Last Hero tale, maybe it made him interested in things Northern.

I'm not really persuaded, yet, by the MR=RT theory, but am interested in bringing out all the evidence and counterevidence.

[Hrafntýr]

I was kinda shocked (as show firster) when the book only went with "boo hoo they called me bastard" "oh come here you rascal, we share now every secret with you and all and whatnot"

That was kinda the biggest wtf moment in the series so far. Talking about unpredictable outcomes. All that image of the wildlings and Jon would have to give them a good, I mean a real good reason to be one of them. But they go " uh well. welcome to the Free Folk, we don't need a good reason, we take who we can get"

I mean if he was just some nobody to them, they would have been a weird bunch. Hate the NW, but take every deserter if only he says " uh they don't like me, take me"

And then, that Tormund or Bones did not object to it. Why did they let this happen ? So much hate towards southeners, but then just take him... either they are extremely desperate or fools, or they saw some huge potential in him.

I dunno, it strikes me as part of the "cripples, bastards and broken things" confederacy. Jon's smart. He had the story that Mance was himself a bastard. He'd had those conversations with Tyrion about the powerful motivation that can come from being thus marginalized. He picked the one thing that would ring true. I was shocked that the TV series changed this conversation, because for me it seemed so plausible in the books. The TV version fits more with the MR=RT theory, since Jon uses the argument that there's something more important than fighting wildlings, it's all about the WW, which I believe is the underpinning of the MR=RT theory, i.e. that RT realized that the real battle was with the WW.

[setmyheartafire]

I dunno, it strikes me as part of the "cripples, bastards and broken things" confederacy. Jon's smart. He had the story that Mance was himself a bastard. He'd had those conversations with Tyrion about the powerful motivation that can come from being thus marginalized. He picked the one thing that would ring true. I was shocked that the TV series changed this conversation, because for me it seemed so plausible in the books. The TV version fits more with the MR=RT theory, since Jon uses the argument that there's something more important than fighting wildlings, it's all about the WW, which I believe is the underpinning of the MR=RT theory, i.e. that RT realized that the real battle was with the WW.

Agreed. The bastard thing is really a symptom of the whole idea that the monarchy and the highborn privelege society is bad. Jon's using that as a reason to join makes sense to Mance and the wildlings as free folk. The free folk seem to admire a man for who he is and what he does rather than whether or not his parents were married. That's because they don't do the whole "this is this lord's land, and all these people on it have to give him part of what they make" thing. The wildlings all do their own thing, help each other out, and no one gets to "lord" over the others unless they choose to let him or her. This is a perfect reason to give.

I think the reason Jon uses in the show is not too unlike it either. Jon insinuates that for whatever reason, Mormont lets the stuff with Craster happen, which is wrong. But since he's the Lord Commander of the institution of the Nights Watch, Jon can't really do anything about it. He has to obey his orders. He doesn't want to.

Both are different aspects of a similar difference in philosophy.

Interesting thinking, but I, on the other hand, think that RT abandoning the GoT and focusing on what's important and that's The Others makes him a real hero and not some melancholic prince obsessed with prophecies. It gives him higher purpose. And, as you remarked, he is highly regarded even by his "enemies". Also, RT went back and forth with the meaning of TPHWP. First he thought it was him, then his son Aegon. I think the last two chapters from Sam's POV before and during maester aeon's death are extremely important and not really thought through at this forum.

Well, I agree with you that fighting the Others is more important than being a political leader. Certainly it's more noble. I'm not suggesting Rhaegar wouldn't want to do what's right(fight the Others) rather than what's easy(be King). I'm not suggesting he wouldn't feel that it was a higher purpose either. But it also isn't noble or heroic to just let everyone else pick up the pieces you left behind while you go pursue that cause.

IF he did this, I suggest he himself was AT the ToJ or Starfall and with Lyanna convinced Ned to spirit Jon away while he went on this mission. But there is no evidence for this except for the KG at the tower. So I don't put much stock in it.

[King Benjen II]

I was kinda shocked (as show firster) when the book only went with "boo hoo they called me bastard" "oh come here you rascal, we share now every secret with you and all and whatnot"

That was kinda the biggest wtf moment in the series so far. Talking about unpredictable outcomes. All that image of the wildlings and Jon would have to give them a good, I mean a real good reason to be one of them. But they go " uh well. welcome to the Free Folk, we don't need a good reason, we take who we can get"

I mean if he was just some nobody to them, they would have been a weird bunch. Hate the NW, but take every deserter if only he says " uh they don't like me, take me"

And then, that Tormund or Bones did not object to it. Why did they let this happen ? So much hate towards southeners, but then just take him... either they are extremely desperate or fools, or they saw some huge potential in him.

Chewbacca theory fits here.

edit: I would accept that Mance is not Rhaegar and Rhaegar not Jon's father. But I would never ever ever accept that Mance is not Jon's father.

We are in agreement bro. I think they know his importance and what would be more important than Mance's (their leader)son?

What is the Chewbacca theory?

[King Benjen II]

So, to switch "sides" of the discussion for a moment, the one way in which I could see Rhaegar shifting his whole direction was if, in his reading, he made the connection between tPtwP and the Last Hero, which would be the tie-in with the North, the Others, Winter etc. Of course WE don't know how the story of the Last Hero really winds up, other than that he was somehow victorious in the end. But he does "set out into the dead lands" and there's a sword (plus the horse, dog, and dozen companions...we haven't seen Mance recreating these things), so if Mance made some connection between this Targ prophecy, perhaps also the Azor Ahai bit, and the Last Hero tale, maybe it made him interested in things Northern.

I'm not really persuaded, yet, by the MR=RT theory, but am interested in bringing out all the evidence and counterevidence.

Oh yes this theory needs to be as fleshed out as possible :)

I think in his books Rhaegar figured out that the most important thing is to fight off the ultimate threat to man, presumably the Others. If everyone dies the IT and everything else means nothing. It certainly seems clear Mance was clearing out potential bodies for the massive undead army and strengtheing the Wall's defense by "attacking" it.

[Metopheles]

We are in agreement bro. I think they know his importance and what would be more important than Mance's (their leader)son?

What is the Chewbacca theory?

I wonder if Rattleshirt knew. Maybe not that Mance is Rhaegar, but perhaps that he is the father of Jon. Otherwise he would not have allowed Jon to be in on all their secrets with only the "they hate me for me bastardness" excuse.

But Tormund.. I think he is in with all of Mance's secrets. But he can keep it shut. Even in front of Jon. But the fact that he grows so extremely fond of Jon is ... interesting.

Chewbacca theory goes back to OJ Simpson and the glove that didn't fit. A weird theory that chewbacca ending on Endor surrounded by ewoks is illogical and doesn't make sense, it doesn't fit. was big in a south park episode. Worth a googling ;)

[King Benjen II]

I wonder if Rattleshirt knew. Maybe not that Mance is Rhaegar, but perhaps that he is the father of Jon. Otherwise he would not have allowed Jon to be in on all their secrets with only the "they hate me for me bastardness" excuse.

But Tormund.. I think he is in with all of Mance's secrets. But he can keep it shut. Even in front of Jon. But the fact that he grows so extremely fond of Jon is ... interesting.

Chewbacca theory goes back to OJ Simpson and the glove that didn't fit. A weird theory that chewbacca ending on Endor surrounded by ewoks is illogical and doesn't make sense, it doesn't fit. was big in a south park episode. Worth a googling ;)

Oh I remember that episode :)

It would explain why Tormund is so fond of Jon. I've always wondered.

[King Benjen II]

I disagree with the idea that every NW member needed to be fooled in order for Rhaegar to join unnoticed.

The raised on the Wall story could have developed over time or been made up for Jon. As noted he never questioned it or asked anyone else.

I don't think Rhaegar needed an accomplice in the NW either.

I wonder how far we can get on possible accomplices in other areas. The idea of Ned is pretty shakey.

[Armstark]

Why would Qhorin tell Jon a different cover story than the one they always told? That would be risky because Mance might than tell him the old cover story, it doesn't fit. The story Qhorin tells has to be the one that was always told. And for that cover story to work there would have to be a lot of people in on it. Denys Mallister for a certainty since he was the commander of the Shadow Tower for the last 33 years and was there even before that. He would know if Mance came to the Wall as an adult. Why would he keep quiet?

And there is one other Targaryen north of the Wall, his name doesn't come up in this discussion here at all. How does he fit in the theory? Surely a thousand eyes and one have watched the King-beyond-the-Wall very closely.

Personally I believe all the similarities between Mance and Rhaegar could be much more easily explained if he was Bloodraven's bastard. Being a singer is not unique to Rhaegar, it is sort of a Targaryen tradition (see John-the-Fiddler for example). Being Bloodraven's bastard would also explain the red and black cloak, his ravenwing helmet and would be in line with his statement that he is of the lowest birth possible. A bastard's bastard. AND it would fit with the story Qhorin tells Jon without it having to be untrue.

[King Benjen II]

Why would Qhorin tell Jon a different cover story than the one they always told? That would be risky because Mance might than tell him the old cover story, it doesn't fit. The story Qhorin tells has to be the one that was always told. And for that cover story to work there would have to be a lot of people in on it. Denys Mallister for a certainty since he was the commander of the Shadow Tower for the last 33 years and was there even before that. He would know if Mance came to the Wall as an adult. Why would he keep quiet?

And there is one other Targaryen north of the Wall, his name doesn't come up in this discussion here at all. How does he fit in the theory? Surely a thousand eyes and one have watched the King-beyond-the-Wall very closely.

Personally I believe all the similarities between Mance and Rhaegar could be much more easily explained if he was Bloodraven's bastard. Being a singer is not unique to Rhaegar, it is sort of a Targaryen tradition (see John-the-Fiddler for example). Being Bloodraven's bastard would also explain the red and black cloak, his ravenwing helmet and would be in line with his statement that he is of the lowest birth possible. A bastard's bastard. AND it would fit with the story Qhorin tells Jon without it having to be untrue.

That is a really cool idea to be honest :)

[alienarea]

Robert Baratheon killed Rhaegar Targaryen on the Trident.

And he doesn't get enough praise for doing so.

[King Benjen II]

Robert Baratheon killed Rhaegar Targaryen on the Trident.

And he doesn't get enough praise for doing so.

You can't praise a man for a deed undone.

[Modesty Lannister]

I disagree with the idea that every NW member needed to be fooled in order for Rhaegar to join unnoticed.

The raised on the Wall story could have developed over time or been made up for Jon. As noted he never questioned it or asked anyone else.

I don't think Rhaegar needed an accomplice in the NW either.

I wonder how far we can get on possible accomplices in other areas. The idea of Ned is pretty shakey.

I agree partially. Maester Aemon had to know everything and mastermind most of it, because he knew the NW inside out. Also, if RT= MR then RT's behaviour mirrors the behaviour of young maester Aemon. That's why I think the chapters describing maester Aemon's death a significant to explore. He said a lot in those chapters. I believe in Ned knowing. First of all, he was constantly guilt ridden. The general assumption is that the reason was Lyanna's death or bringing Jon to Winterfell. But, Ned is not guilty of anything re Lyanna if she died at childbirth, which seems to be the predominant theory. If Jon is not his, he shouldn't feel so guilty. Yet, he does. But, if he is playing a double game fooling his family, best friend (Robert) and committing potential treason by hiding the fact that RT lives and sheltering his son, then there is plenty of reason to be guilty about. And don't forget that when facing the dilemma - protect the North or be loyal to the king - the Starks would choose the north.

[Modesty Lannister]

Why would Qhorin tell Jon a different cover story than the one they always told? That would be risky because Mance might than tell him the old cover story, it doesn't fit. The story Qhorin tells has to be the one that was always told. And for that cover story to work there would have to be a lot of people in on it. Denys Mallister for a certainty since he was the commander of the Shadow Tower for the last 33 years and was there even before that. He would know if Mance came to the Wall as an adult. Why would he keep quiet?

And there is one other Targaryen north of the Wall, his name doesn't come up in this discussion here at all. How does he fit in the theory? Surely a thousand eyes and one have watched the King-beyond-the-Wall very closely.

Personally I believe all the similarities between Mance and Rhaegar could be much more easily explained if he was Bloodraven's bastard. Being a singer is not unique to Rhaegar, it is sort of a Targaryen tradition (see John-the-Fiddler for example). Being Bloodraven's bastard would also explain the red and black cloak, his ravenwing helmet and would be in line with his statement that he is of the lowest birth possible. A bastard's bastard. AND it would fit with the story Qhorin tells Jon without it having to be untrue.

The problem I'm having with this is that Bloodraven is a character outside the 5 books of ASOIAF. However, it is possible RT would know about Bloodraven and play with his symbols. Interesting theory though.

[Black Crow]

Why would Qhorin tell Jon a different cover story than the one they always told? That would be risky because Mance might than tell him the old cover story, it doesn't fit. The story Qhorin tells has to be the one that was always told. And for that cover story to work there would have to be a lot of people in on it. Denys Mallister for a certainty since he was the commander of the Shadow Tower for the last 33 years and was there even before that. He would know if Mance came to the Wall as an adult. Why would he keep quiet?

And there is one other Targaryen north of the Wall, his name doesn't come up in this discussion here at all. How does he fit in the theory? Surely a thousand eyes and one have watched the King-beyond-the-Wall very closely.

Personally I believe all the similarities between Mance and Rhaegar could be much more easily explained if he was Bloodraven's bastard. Being a singer is not unique to Rhaegar, it is sort of a Targaryen tradition (see John-the-Fiddler for example). Being Bloodraven's bastard would also explain the red and black cloak, his ravenwing helmet and would be in line with his statement that he is of the lowest birth possible. A bastard's bastard. AND it would fit with the story Qhorin tells Jon without it having to be untrue.

:agree:

I agree and a connection to Bryn Blackwood might explain his unhealthy interest in the Winterfell crypts.

[King Benjen II]

:agree:

I agree and a connection to Bryn Blackwood might explain his unhealthy interest in the Winterfell crypts.

How so?

[Modesty Lannister]

:agree:

I agree and a connection to Bryn Blackwood might explain his unhealthy interest in the Winterfell crypts.

Not the fact that Lyanna was buried there and that spear wives needed swords?

[Black Crow]

No, whatever's of interest lies in the lower levels.

[Modesty Lannister]

No, whatever's of interest lies in the lower levels.

?

[Essan]

On the one hand, the "RT = MR and Ned knew it" theory offers a good explanation as to why Benjen was so keen to take the Black straight after Rob's Rebellion. He too being in on the conspiracy.

However, how does all this explain the fight at the ToJ? The KG were (seemingly) under orders to prevent - to the death - Ned from reaching his sister and/or nephew. Why? Whose orders, if this was part of RT's grand conspiracy all along? Unless Ned only found out the truth and 'defected' after the fight, when he finally spoke to the dying Lyanna? (The original plan being for someone else to raise Jon?)