Rickard Stark's Southron Ambitions

[Modesty Lannister]

But these same Lords were complicit with Tywin's hope to marry Cersei to Rhaegar.

How do you know that?

[Hippocras]

How do you know that?

Because Tywin was PART of this grand alliance, as proven by the Lysa + Jamie match.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Lol. Nothing is forbidden in Arianne's world. And he own father knows she would never actually marry any of the proposed matches. He was just buying his time and up easing potential suitors.

I reread. It's Hoster who invited Arianne, but Doran refused. Hoster didn't know about his plans.

[Saintwalker]

But these same Lords were complicit with Tywin's hope to marry Cersei to Rhaegar.

Also, Robert Baratheon was a High Lord and present at Harrenhal. Tywin was possibly there too because he wanted to see his favorite son compete and win, and the move to name Jamie to the Kingsguard was done to insult him.

Tywin wasn't there, only Jon Arryn and Robert Baratheon, Jaime Lannister was appointed as Kingsguard in the tourney, maybe to spite Lord Tywin since Aerys was already distrustful of the Lords Paramount.

And I failed to notice where it says the other Lords were complicit to Tywin's hope to marry Cersei to Rhaegar.

All and all it's just my opinion, and I could be biased by my narrow view of power politics.

[Hippocras]

I'm not clear about your position that marriages between houses of Lord Paramounts were supposed be a deterrent. Deterrent from whom? It was a time of peace.

Indeed it was a time of peace, but an extremely fragile peace because the dragons were gone.

The dragons were the only thing that had previously held the realm together. But without them there was a need for something ELSE to hold them together and prevent a scenario of reverting once again to several small kingdoms constantly at war with each other just as we see happening between Lys, Tyrosh and Myr.

The deterrent aspect is about creating bonds of kinship between each of the former Seven Kingdoms to prevent reverting to constant war now that the dragons are gone.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Indeed it was a time of peace, but an extremely fragile peace because the dragons were gone.

Nop. Their King was mad. It was a peaceful time, yes, but they would be stupid to not consider that due to Aerys' mind, it would be war or conflicts any soon. They were right.

[Hippocras]

Tywin wasn't there, only Jon Arryn and Robert Baratheon, Jaime Lannister was appointed as Kingsguard in the tourney, maybe to spite Lord Tywin since Aerys was already distrustful of the Lords Paramount.

And I failed to notice where it says the other Lords were complicit to Tywin's hope to marry Cersei to Rhaegar.

All and all it's just my opinion, and I could be biased by my narrow view of power politics.

Tywin was part of the alliance. That I hope you accept, because it is obviously true. Lysa was supposed to marry Jamie under the master plan.

Tywin was the most powerful man in the Kingdoms as Hand of the King, and his hearts desire was for Cersei to marry Rhaegar. No one else went against this wish by providing an alternate match for Rhaegar. That is your proof.

Only the Martells defied Tywin by making the Elia + Rhaegar match, and they did this because Tywin insulted them when they visited him.

[Hippocras]

Nop. Their King was mad. It was a peaceful time, yes, but they would be stupid to not consider that due to Aerys' mind, it would be war or conflicts any soon. They were right.

Well this I agree with actuall, but it is precisely why there is no basis for the belief that the Lords wanted to throw out ALL Targaryens. More likely they just wanted to get rid of Aerys while building a Westeros- wide grand alliance to support future peace through kinship bonds.

[Saintwalker]

Tywin was part of the alliance. That I hope you accept, because it is obviously true. Lysa was supposed to marry Jamie under the master plan.

Tywin was the most powerful man in the Kingdoms as Hand of the King, and his hearts desire was for Cersei to marry Rhaegar. No one else went against this wish by providing an alternate match for Rhaegar. That is your proof.

Only the Martells defied Tywin by making the Elia + Rhaegar match, and they did this because Tywin insulted them when they visited him.

Except for Rhaelle Targaryen, the Martells were the only family to marry Targs, there was nothing in the books that point that Elia's arrangement was out of spite, it was common to seal KL+ Dorne through marriage.

I don't think Tywin was in the "masterplan" before Harrenhal. The Jaime+Lysa was a way to bring him into the fold.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Well this I agree with actuall, but it is precisely why there is no basis for the belief that the Lords wanted to throw out ALL Targaryens. More likely they just wanted to get rid of Aerys.

"Get ride" is not the word I'm looking for. I'd say "prepare".

1. Considering Aerys' state, there was a big chance of him doing something rushed like starting a war due to unimportant reasons. With those marriages, they would be ready to face him as one fist.

2. Seeing that Rhaegar was doing nothing, either they wanted to be all together by the time he actually did something or ask him to do it and let him know they were together and he would be either backed up or opposed by mostly of his lords.

[Hippocras]

Except for Rhaelle Targaryen, the Martells were the only family to marry Targs, there was nothing in the books that point that Elia's arrangement was out of spite, it was common to seal KL+ Dorne through marriage.

I don't think Tywin was in the "masterplan" before Harrenhal. The Jaime+Lysa was a way to bring him into the fold.

We actually don't know that.

First of all the Arryns clearly had some Targaryen blood. This was specifically mentioned. So did the Baratheons BEFORE Rhaelle, as well as the Velaryons.

Second, we know that ALL of Aegon V's offspring married for love, and we don't know who. There are some family ties in the kingdoms that have not been specified yet.

Elaena Targaryen had three husbands, one of whom was a Plumm. We don't know who the others were. Alysanne and Jaehaerys had nine children and unified the kingdoms. Chances are high they did it with marriages to high lords.

There is a high probability that the Daynes have some Targ blood, but we will find out later.

The Jame/Lysa match was planned way before Harrenhal, but was BROKEN at Harrenhal.

[the conquoring bastard25]

How do you know that?

Because Tywin was PART of this grand alliance, as proven by the Lysa + Jamie match.

Tywin didn't Join until after Cersei was denied RT.

Nop. Their King was mad. It was a peaceful time, yes, but they would be stupid to not consider that due to Aerys' mind, it would be war or conflicts any soon. They were right.

Duskendale changed all. Tywin and Aerys killed an entire ancient line and left one to survive. I think that before this there was rumblings in the kingdom but nothing firm. Then this event happened and the other highlords realized that the Targs were a done force with out the dragons. That without Dragons a regime change was in the workings.

Tywin was part of the alliance. That I hope you accept, because it is obviously true. Lysa was supposed to marry Jamie under the master plan.

Tywin was the most powerful man in the Kingdoms as Hand of the King, and his hearts desire was for Cersei to marry Rhaegar. No one else went against this wish by providing an alternate match for Rhaegar. That is your proof.

Only the Martells defied Tywin by making the Elia + Rhaegar match, and they did this because Tywin insulted them when they visited him.

Tywin was only apart of the master plan after Cersei was denied the Prince and to spite the king he was going to marry his heir to Dorne. So Tywin being the smart man he is choose to enter the alliance.

Then Cersei much like Sansa did when she told Cersei about Ned's plan, the Queen I think used Cersei to check Tywin and the King. By pushing them to a breaking point. So she gets Jamie to join the guard. This act alone insured that whomever would free his heir from the guard would have his support.

Your other proof is that Tywin made sure that all possible matches being made before Duskendale worked in his favor. He went to Lys more than likely to check out that distant branch of house targ that Aegon IV's last mistress was from, the mother of Seastar. This is the same house that probably has some other Targ bastards running in their vein, GRRM said that Aerion left some bastards in Lys when he was exiled there after the Tourney.

Lys is where Vary was born. It's the place that Serra Vary's "Possible"twin sister was working in a pleasure house before she married IIlyrio. Then there is the fact that Stefforn Baratheon when as far as Volantis to get a bride for Rheagar. Yet what's funny and I didn't see it until I was thinking about, Oberyn's bastard daughter Lady Nymeria is from Volantis and she's from the oldest blood of Volantis. Her mother was a lady of the city. The mother would have been old enough to marry Rhe, if she's fine enough for a prince of Dorne why not a prince of the 7 kingdoms. Then there is this Volantis is known as the first daughter of Valyria. They should have some Targ or Valyria blood running in their veins. But he couldn't find anyone to marry the prince something smells funny.

Also so sorry about being missing I had to have a game free weekend to wrap my head around somethings.

[Modesty Lannister]

Indeed it was a time of peace, but an extremely fragile peace because the dragons were gone.

The dragons were the only thing that had previously held the realm together. But without them there was a need for something ELSE to hold them together and prevent a scenario of reverting once again to several small kingdoms constantly at war with each other just as we see happening between Lys, Tyrosh and Myr.

The deterrent aspect is about creating bonds of kinship between each of the former Seven Kingdoms to prevent reverting to constant war now that the dragons are gone.

War between whom? Targaryens were vulnerable without dragons. Jon Arryn was sitting in the impregnable Eyrie keeping Robert, the forth in line of successor safe in the Vale. In the meantime, marriages were being arranged with more or less success between houses of lords paramount - 4 kingdoms created an alliance in such a way. Had Aerys' been the sanest man on Earth, this would give him serious cause for concern, let alone in his mental state. The crown was allied to Dorne and Reach while Aerys' behaviour alienated Tywin and Westerlands. How was the crown a threat that needed deterrent?

[Modesty Lannister]

Tywin was part of the alliance. That I hope you accept, because it is obviously true. Lysa was supposed to marry Jamie under the master plan.

Tywin was the most powerful man in the Kingdoms as Hand of the King, and his hearts desire was for Cersei to marry Rhaegar. No one else went against this wish by providing an alternate match for Rhaegar. That is your proof.

Only the Martells defied Tywin by making the Elia + Rhaegar match, and they did this because Tywin insulted them when they visited him.

Tywin was not a part of any alliance at first. His desire to marry his daughter to the crown prince and his son into the alliance is a testament of that. He wanted to be the one who would be able to tip the scales one way or the other. As the Hand, his was a wise move. That was an attempted deterrent against the alliance. However, that position would have secured him an equal position with the crown if not better and Aerys refused. There is no evidence that any of the lords paramount backed Tywin up in his plans to marry Cersei to Rhaegar at all.

[Hippocras]

War between whom? Targaryens were vulnerable without dragons. Jon Arryn was sitting in the impregnable Eyrie keeping Robert, the forth in line of successor safe in the Vale. In the meantime, marriages were being arranged with more or less success between houses of lords paramount - 4 kingdoms created an alliance in such a way. Had Aerys' been the sanest man on Earth, this would give him serious cause for concern, let alone in his mental state. The crown was allied to Dorne and Reach while Aerys' behaviour alienated Tywin and Westerlands. How was the crown a threat that needed deterrent?

Each other! As I said above, without a basis for unity, the seven kingdoms would have reverted to the era of constant war between each other, just as we see with Myr, Lys and Tyrosh. The alliances would have prevented that and given the kingdoms a new deterrent against warring with each other in the absence of dragons to enforce peace.

[Hippocras]

Tywin was not a part of any alliance at first. His desire to marry his daughter to the crown prince and his son into the alliance is a testament of that. He wanted to be the one who would be able to tip the scales one way or the other. As the Hand, his was a wise move. That was an attempted deterrent against the alliance. However, that position would have secured him an equal position with the crown if not better and Aerys refused. There is no evidence that any of the lords paramount backed Tywin up in his plans to marry Cersei to Rhaegar at all.

None of them proposed an alternative. They stayed out of Tywin's way.

[Saintwalker]

We actually don't know that.

First of all the Arryns clearly had some Targaryen blood. This was specifically mentioned. So did the Baratheons BEFORE Rhaelle, as well as the Velaryons.

Second, we know that ALL of Aegon V's offspring married for love, and we don't know who. There are some family ties in the kingdoms that have not been specified yet.

Elaena Targaryen had three husbands, one of whom was a Plumm. We don't know who the others were. Alysanne and Jaehaerys had nine children and unified the kingdoms. Chances are high they did it with marriages to high lords.

There is a high probability that the Daynes have some Targ blood, but we will find out later.

The Jame/Lysa match was planned way before Harrenhal, but was BROKEN at Harrenhal.

Sorry I meant to say after the Dance/Blackfyre pretenders

[Hippocras]

Sorry I meant to say after the Dance/Blackfyre pretenders

Aegon V's children married all for love after the Dance and all of the Blackfyre rebellions save the Ninepenny kings.

[Modesty Lannister]

Each other! As I said above, without a basis for unity, the seven kingdoms would have reverted to the era of constant war between each other, just as we see with Myr, Lys and Tyrosh. The alliances would have prevented that and given the kingdoms a new deterrent against warring with each other in the absence of dragons to enforce peace.

You have not provided any proof for this claim apart from your firm belief. Actions of the main players are showing the opposite as was repeatedly demonstrated by several posters here myself included.

[the conquoring bastard25]

This in fact supports what I have been trying to say - the alliances were not necessarily about war, but rather make more sense as a means of PREVENTING war. They are defensive, not offensive.

Sure, they are about securing swords, but that is a PREVENTATIVE measure. I contest the premise that the alliances were OFFENSIVE. In other words, they were more likely about securing a peace than about starting a revolt. Initially. We know that things went wrong, of course. But at the time that the various plans were being made, there is ZERO reason to believe the claim of the theory, which stated that their aim was to overthrow Targaryen rule.

The part I am waiting for someone to provide evidence for is this claim, all over this thread, that High Lords children marrying each other was a breach of normal practice. People on this thread keep saying that, not backing it up, and being dismissive of my posts based on this claim, but it has not been backed up.

Think about this as a poker game.

Aerys because he's king has the best hand at the table. Yet the alliance was trying to bluff that they could cause the realm to bleed.

They were setting themselves up so that if things didn't work well at the Grand Council to remove Aerys and if Rhaegar didn't want to play ball. Robert could play the part of a replacement heir as they are first double cousins. Robert was their back up plan if things didn't work in their favor and the prince wants to be loyal to his father.

Harrenhal was Rheagars response to the grand alliances bluff. He was playing a game from both sides. He's making his father nervous by flaunting his popularity and sanity to the realm. He's showing the realm and those that are plotting that he's on to their game only that he's willing to play but only on his terms.

He's got a direct link into the citadel and the maester network through Hightower. This is a family that helped build the Citadel and I'm sure that they have some influence inside the Citadel. Not to mention that one of his kin is Rickard own maester. Even if he doesn't know what the Citadel was up to he had to know what his family was about and what game they were playing.

He's playing Varys in his role as spymaster, by making his plans very public or at least known enough that Varys gets word of what he was up to. If your tying to get the king to show the realm his true colors and makinga play for the crown yourself. IF the only person that can keep the king abreast of the plot is there solely there to prevent that from that happening I would use that against them. Feed them as much truth as possible so when you change the game they are thrown off guard.

That's what the crowing of Lyanna accomplished. It told Jon and Robert that the prince knew what they were playing at. That he was aware of his father and his crazy actions. That he would be willing to play ball and help them remove his father, so long as he's the next king not Robert. That a marriage between him and Lyanna would solve the problem of a war, unite to kingdom as from her he'd be related to most of the noble families in the alliance and through blood. He's related to Robert and Jon by blood, Rickard because of a future grandchild, Tully through Ly being sister to Brandon and their future children.

Rheagar was taking their bluff and making a bluff of his own.