Military Strengths of Major Houses

[Stormland's Fury]

How many men did Rhaegar took to the Trident 40.000 or 45.000? 10.000 from Dorne and he had help from loyalists in the Riverlands and the Stormlands. So excluding the Royal Fleet and the Goldcloaks the Crownlands provided him 20 to 30.000? Is this right?

This is what I meant in an earlier post. A lot of people knew how many Dornishmen fought at the Trident. If they were fighting an all out war under pressure of having Elia "hostage" then why would they only spare so few troops and why would Aerys allow this. They weren't fighting anyone else, so are all those who fought during RR to believe the Dornish sent half-assed 10000 men to the Trident while withholding 40000 in Dorne? Despite Elia's and their own fate as a house depending on the victory of the royalists. (they had no idea what the rebels would do with them if they lost).

[Fat Mac]

How many men did Rhaegar took to the Trident 40.000 or 45.000? 10.000 from Dorne and he had help from loyalists in the Riverlands and the Stormlands. So excluding the Royal Fleet and the Goldcloaks the Crownlands provided him 20 to 30.000? Is this right?

They did have a small number from the Reach as well iirc, but I don't know where I read that.

[ncb]

But in a post above someone said that a city needs ten times its population in the surrounding area to survive (food etc) and most of you agreed with that. If the Crownlands have a 5mil population why cant they have 20 or 30k soldiers?

Also didn't the Targaryens like any other House have their own sworn swords? Would this number include only knights or men at arms as well?

I think 10.000 loyalists from Riverlands and Stormalnds is more accurate.

[Bryden Tully]

But in a post above someone said that a city needs ten times its population in the surrounding area to survive (food etc) and most of you agreed with that. If the Crownlands have a 5mil population why cant they have 20 or 30k soldiers?

Also didn't the Targaryens like any other House have their own sworn swords? Would this number include only knights or men at arms as well?

I think 10.000 loyalists from Riverlands and Stormalnds is more accurate.

Eh-only one house in the storm lands fought for the crown, and I assume that was defeated at summerhall. The riverlands would of only been able to provide about 6,000 at best

[Stormland's Fury]

No, they don't. I've never seen a precise number for KL, only a rough estimate of about 500,000. Furthermore, that's just cities. The landscape, where the vast majority lives, is less well-known.

Of course that's an estimate but they still know how many live in the cities. And most lords either know how many they have on their lands or are reigning over cities themselves (White Harbor, Oldtown, etc.) so at least they have a concept of their population otherwise they could not provide their lieges with relatively precise numbers. This is Westeros, not real life. Otherwise I would agree.

Ned Stark visited the Clans several times, and they'd tell him the truth as precise as they themselves could guess. Furthermore, smaller numbers make for more accurate guesses.

That's presuming that Ned told those exact numbers every time he visited them to Jon. And the last time Jon and Ned even met was 2 years prior, in summer without us even knowing how up-to-date Ned's info on them was at that point or if he even told Jon. Still Jon is right about the numbers based on second hand information (which may or may not be outdated) in the midst of a hard winter coming and they field exactly the numbers he also expected.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

This is what I meant in an earlier post. A lot of people knew how many Dornishmen fought at the Trident. If they were fighting an all out war against under pressure of having Elia "hostage" then why would they only spare so few troops and why would Aerys allow this. They weren't fighting anyone else, so are all those who fought during RR to believe the Dornish sent half-assed 10000 men to the Trident while withholding 40000 in Dorne? Despite Elia's and their own fate as a house depending on the victory of the royalists. (thy had no idea what the rebels would do with them if they lost).

Gathering up armies is difficult and takes a lot time. Marching them a distance even more. Dorne had a limited amount of time to gather the army, between the Battle of the Bells and marching north towards KL.

But in a post above someone said that a city needs ten times its population in the surrounding area to survive (food etc) and most of you agreed with that. If the Crownlands have a 5mil population why cant they have 20 or 30k soldiers?

Also didn't the Targaryens like any other House have their own sworn swords? Would this number include only knights or men at arms as well?

I think 10.000 loyalists from Riverlands and Stormalnds is more accurate.

KL does not solely rely on the Crownlands but also the Reach and the Stormlands.

The Targaryens of course had their own sworn swords: the Crownlands. But largely they relied on dragons.

Eh-only one house in the storm lands fought for the crown, and I assume that was defeated at summerhall. The riverlands would of only been able to provide about 6,000 at best

More like all of them, at least initially. Summerhall saw three of them linking up against Robert. Later, Jon Connington (a Stormlord himself) lead an army against Robert.

6,000 is damn close to what House Darry on their own could provide. But there were more.

That's presuming that Ned told those exact numbers every time he visited them to Jon. And the last time Jon and Ned even met was 2 years prior, in summer without us even knowing how up-to-date Ned's info on them was at that point or if he even told Jon. Still Jon is right about the numbers based on second hand information (which may or may not be outdated) in the midst of a hard winter coming and they field exactly the numbers he also expected.

The "exact numbers" with an uncertainty of 50%! Furthermore, numbers don't change much in two years, without some outside influence. Ned groomed Robb and Jon side by side, he'd tell them for sure.

[The Academic Wolf]

Of course that's an estimate but they still know how many live in the cities. And most lords either know how many they have on their lands or are reigning over cities themselves (White Harbor, Oldtown, etc.) so at least they have a concept of their population otherwise they could not provide their lieges with relatively precise numbers. This is Westeros, not real life. Otherwise I would agree.

That's presuming that Ned told those exact numbers every time he visited them to Jon. And the last time Jon and Ned even met was 2 years prior, in summer without us even knowing how up-to-date Ned's info on them was at that point or if he even told Jon. Still Jon is right about the numbers based on second hand information (which may or may not be outdated) in the midst of a hard winter coming and they field exactly the numbers he also expected.

Winter had essentially already come however- there was no time for another harvest for the clans, and aside from doing things such as laying stores of firewood and repairing buildings etc. which, if they hadn't already done, I would be amazed. The clans likely had more numbers to send off, with numbers of "cannon fodder" for want of a better term, that normally wouldn't be sent. Essentially, the less men that come back to eat the winter stores, the better for the clans.

[Stormland's Fury]

The "exact numbers" with an uncertainty of 50%! Furthermore, numbers don't change much in two years, without some outside influence. Ned groomed Robb and Jon side by side, he'd tell them for sure.

He expected 2000-3000 men and that's how many they send. If he says 2k-3k and 2500 show up then it was still within his expectation.

[Stormland's Fury]

Winter had essentially already come however- there was no time for another harvest for the clans, and aside from doing things such as laying stores of firewood and repairing buildings etc. which, if they hadn't already done, I would be amazed. The clans likely had more numbers to send off, with numbers of "cannon fodder" for want of a better term, that normally wouldn't be sent. Essentially, the less men that come back to eat the winter stores, the better for the clans.

But were they even prepared for battle on short notice at all? They didn't join the other Northerners nor they they expect to fight any time soon if at all. Yet they immediately went along with Stannis and I assume they still need men to take care of their families, old ones, children etc. Including the upkeep of their infrastructure or houses. Their women do probably a lot of work to in those harsh climates but I still don't see why Jon expected them to spare that much manpower in a that situation as they did.

[ncb]

The Targaryens of course had their own sworn swords: the Crownlands. But largely they relied on dragons.

I meant household knights not lords or landed knights. Kevan tells Cersei that even though he is (was) Tywin's household knight he alone feeds 200 knights. If Kevan feeds this number how many knights could Aerys feed?1.000? Ned said Aerys left the treasury full so he had no lack of gold unlike Robert.

[Stormland's Fury]

I meant household knights not lords or landed knights. Kevan tells Cersei that even though he is (was) Tywin's household knight he alone feeds 200 knights. If Kevan feeds this number how many knights could Aerys feed?1.000? Ned said Aerys left the treasury full so he had no lack of gold unlike Robert.

I assume quite a lot and I guess the Kingsguard is also part of the household. Are the Goldcloaks part as well or are they appointed to the city exclusively?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

He expected 2000-3000 men and that's how many they send. If he says 2k-3k and 2500 show up then it was still within his expectation.

If I estimate you at being between 1.50 and 2.25 meters tall, I'd probably be correct. But would you call that an exact estimation?

But were they even prepared for battle on short notice at all? They didn't join the other Northerners nor they they expect to fight any time soon if at all. Yet they immediately went along with Stannis and I assume they still need men to take care of their families, old ones, children etc. Including the upkeep of their infrastructure or houses. Their women do probably a lot of work to in those harsh climates but I still don't see why Jon expected them to spare that much manpower in a that situation as they did.

Stannis took quite some time to get them rounded up. Furthermore, smaller numbers mean faster gathering. Especially during the onset of winter, where they gather in a couple central spots anyway.

And of course they've got men to take care of their families. Only about 1% (more like 0.5% in that particular area) of the population being males in their prime? Nope.

I meant household knights not lords or landed knights. Kevan tells Cersei that even though he is (was) Tywin's household knight he alone feeds 200 knights. If Kevan feeds this number how many knights could Aerys feed?1.000? Ned said Aerys left the treasury full so he had no lack of gold unlike Robert.

That would be the KG and the garrison of the Red Keep. Which is limited by the Red Keep. A couple hundreds altogether.

[Stormland's Fury]

If I estimate you at being between 1.50 and 2.25 meters tall, I'd probably be correct. But would you call that an exact estimation?

And if you estimate that in two years from now and I lost my legs in meantime you could still be off.

Jon doesn't have Google Maps at the Wall. The Ironborn occupied the North without him knowing how far or even what they are doing on top off the Clans not communicating with anyone normally. The Ironborn just could have occupied their lands because it's on the on the west side and no one would even know.

On top Jon couldn't predict a harsh winter nor that the Clans would become important so he still doesn't know how many they could send under the new circumstances.

Stannis took quite some time to get them rounded up. Furthermore, smaller numbers mean faster gathering. Especially during the onset of winter, where they gather in a couple central spots anyway.

And of course they've got men to take care of their families. Only about 1% (more like 0.5% in that particular area) of the population being males in their prime? Nope.

The Mountains are a large area even if there are small numbers he still has to get them all together. Where does it say they gather in central spots? And even then those central spots are all spaced out over a large area.

How would Jon do the same calculations as you do? On what basis and even then it's your speculation on something that might or might not be the case and under the assumption Jon would take that also into consideration. If the mountain Clans told Ned what they can usually could send away, how does Jon know what they are actually going to send considering the weather and the situation they are in? They could send more or less depending how urgent Stannis needs them. This is about him (and others) always seemingly knowing how many people can be fielded at any time despite the odds or situation. And yes you are saying that Jon knows what he/Stannis can work with, which was my point to begin with, not Mountain Clan demographics.

[Free Northman Reborn]

What exactly is being argued here, with reference to Jon's estimate of the Mountain Clans numbers?

I think it is quite obvious that a good Lord Paramount has a fairly good idea of the numbers that each of his bannerlords could raise. The better the Lord Paramount, the more precise his estimate would be. Hence, I am sure Eddard as the top military commander of all Lord Paramounts in Westeros, had a very good grasp of each bannerlord's potential. Mace Tyrell, in contrast, likely has a far looser grasp of the Reach's numers.

In any case, I further think that each Lord Paramount would try very hard to keep this information top secret, and in fact spread disinformation about it in the way Doran did.

So I think it is very clear that Stannis has a very bad understanding of what the North's potential truly is, just like Eddard would have a fairly inaccurate estimate for the Stormlands' potential. Most likely they would base it on what each region had raised in previous wars, where records were kept.

Hence, Stannis might have read some Maester's treatise on Aegon's Conquest, and on that basis, may estimate that the North can raise the 30k men that Torhenn raised. His lack of knowledge of the finer detail was quite clear when he didn't have a clue about the 3000 men just sitting around ready to be raised by the Mountain Clans.

Similarly, it is probably quite easy for Doran to misrepresent Dorne's numbers, based on one or two incorrect historical accounts from a few centuries ago.

[Stormland's Fury]

What exactly is being argued here, with reference to Jon's estimate of the Mountain Clans numbers?

That Westerosi apparently have much more overview over troops and population than possible irl.

They still all have a basic concept of how big each others regions actually are, you don't need precise numbers to know that the Reach has a bigger population than the Riverlands who in turn bigger than Dorne. Most nobles seem to know how many people who has. I have no idea what the exact population of Bangladesh is but I still know/can guess it has to be bigger than that of the Western Sahara or Sweden.

And that's just the general assumptions within Westeros.

And if the Tullys know that they can count on 50000 men and the Baratheons on 30000, they probably should raise an eye brow when Dorne says it can raise just a smuch or even almost twice as much. It's not like Dorne is that shut off magical land that no one has access to. And the IT probably knows approx. how many bannermen it could get from their respective great lords over time too.

The great lords probably are aware or informed as much as possible about the capacities (manpower and resources in general) of the the other regions.

[Stormland's Fury]

I think it is quite obvious that a good Lord Paramount has a fairly good idea of the numbers that each of his bannerlords could raise. The better the Lord Paramount, the more precise his estimate would be. Hence, I am sure Eddard as the top military commander of all Lord Paramounts in Westeros, had a very good grasp of each bannerlord's potential. Mace Tyrell, in contrast, likely has a far looser grasp of the Reach's numers.

Doesn't matter, that's the point. Even if Mace doesn't know, apparently the others all know he he has 100.000. And those numbers seem to be accurate within the story no matter what, otherwise we would not know the numbers either.

[Free Northman Reborn]

That Westerosi apparently have much more overview over troops and population than possible irl.

They still all have a basic concept of how big each others regions actually are, you don't need precise numbers to know that the Reach has a bigger population than the Riverlands who in turn bigger than Dorne. Most nobles seem to know how many people who has. I have no idea what the exact population of Bangladesh is but I still know/can guess it has to be bigger than that of the Western Sahara or Sweden.

And that's just the general assumptions within Westeros.

And if the Tullys know that they can count on 50000 men and the Baratheons on 30000, they probably should raise an eye brow when Dorne says it can raise just a smuch or even almost twice as much. It's not like Dorne is that shut off magical land that no one has access to. And the IT probably knows approx. how many bannermen it could get from their respective great lords over time too.

The great lords probably are aware or informed as much as possible about the capacities (manpower and resources in general) of the the other regions.

Think about it. All anyone ever sees, are armies that march beyond their home borders. And it is an obvious fact that no one ever marches their full strength beyond their borders.

So knowing how many men has marched to foreign wars from any particular region in no way tells you what their full potential is. England invaded France on numerous occasions over the centuries. These armies usually numbered around 20,000 men at most. Was this England's full strength? Of course not. Who knows how many men they could raise to defend their home territory.

We know that Dorne's estimate of 50,000 is based on Prince Daeron Targaryen's memoirs from his Dornish campaigns. The fact that Dorne have never marched more than 10,000 men to war subsequent to this time in no way disproves this figure. It merely told opponents that Dorne never had the need or motivation to send more than 10,000 men beyond their borders. As far as everyone else knew, based on Daeron's records, the other 40,000 were simply never assembled.

[Stormland's Fury]

Yes, and it still doesn't take into account geography.

The Stormlands share the Dornish marches with Dorne. They know they have forests and are more fertile while the land on the other side of the marshes is desert. They also know where the main population points are in Dorne, they know where the families have their seats and that Dorne is only sparsely populated on its coasts while they themselves also have populated areas inland.

If you know that you can gather 30000 men and know that the region who is similar in size and just across the border has much worse conditions to sustain a larger population than you and the say they can field 20000 men more than you, what would you think?

And if no one had an estimation of the others' manpower, why did Doran have to bluff anyway? In that case they already correctly guessed his strenght and him inflating that number doesn't really help since they probably will be skeptical in any case. If they didn't know his numbers in the first place than there would be no need to officially proclaim false information.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Yes, and it still doesn't take into account geography.

The Stormlands share the Dornish marches with Dorne. They know they have forests and are more fertile while the land on the other side of the marshes is desert. They also know where the main population points are in Dorne, they know where the families have their seats and that Dorne is only sparsely populated on its coasts while they themselves also have populated areas inland.

If you know that you can gather 30000 men and know that the region who is similar in size and just across the border has much worse conditions to sustain a larger population than you and the say they can field 20000 men more than you, what would you think?

And if no one had an estimation of the others' manpower, why did Doran have to bluff anyway? In that case they already correctly guessed his strenght and him inflating that number doesn't really help since they probably will be skeptical in any case. If they didn't know his numbers in the first place than there would be no need to officially proclaim false information.

And yet the fact remains everyone believed the 50k number, including the well read Tyrion, and including the crown prince of Dorne himself.

[Frey Kings]

Theres a difference between people that can actually fight and the common small folk who ended up with a penis that fits in the age range.