Military Strengths of Major Houses

[The Academic Wolf]

snip

The estimate for the North is too low. GRRM has said that the North, Vale, and Riverlands all have about the same amount of troops.

Added to that, you are underestimating some of the strength of the Northern Houses, such as Karstark and Umber. Further, you are not considering the strength that the Dustins, the Flints of Widows Watch, or the other, "southerly" Northern Houses did not send to Robb, either deliberately, or because there simply was not time to raise them.

[The Red Lion]

I was replying to you, replying to someone who wasn't replying to you, that he had to reply to you.

Boy, that sounds confusing.

Renly's host of 100 000 men included both Reach and Stormlords - so your estimation about the Reach is a bit too high, I think. 100 000 men, with the Redwynes and the Hightowers, would be a more accurate guess, I think.

Also, you are exaggerating Jaime's losses - and Stafford's, too. At least 4000 of the 15 000 men Jaime had besieging Riverrun retreated to the Golden tooth.

Part of those 4000 became the core of Stafford's army, which after being defeated by Robb still had survivors - the entire Lannister force under Daven is made up from those.

And while I can't back this with evidence, I think you're lowballing the Riverlands numbers. I would put them at least at 40 000. Though this is mostly from other people's opinions and my own gut feeling.

yeah, I figured my westerlands estimate was probably wrong, didn't take time to check their stafford and daven army forces. what would you say they could field at max then?

[TheCrannogDweller]

yeah, I figured my westerlands estimate was probably wrong, didn't take time to check their stafford and daven army forces. what would you say they could field at max then?

Probably around 50 000 with all the castles' garrisons included - and that is with the "sweepings of Lannisport" who were the main part of Stafford's army.

[Nittanian]

Could you perhaps link that SSM? :)

Possibly this one? "WRT Dornish troop counts, that Dorne's strength in numbers varied from person to person. Tyrion might have one perspective, Daeron (the young king) another, and Oberyn Martell a third. Each POV is of course right in his/her own mind, and the reader must judge who has the best info. I'll vote for Doran Martell on this one, rather than Tyrion."

Crownlands: ~10,000

The crownlands do not have any major lords, with their entire strength based on KL. The gold cloaks had 6,000 soldiers at their peak and i guess all the other lords combined could probably raise another 5,000 or so.

We don't know as much about them, but I expect the crownlands could raise more. When the Tyrells stop sending food to KL during ACOK, half of the city's food comes from the estates of Rosby and Stokeworth, so they probably have considerable resources. Duskendale is revealed to be a sizable town in AFFC. The Velaryons and Celtigars seem to have been more powerful in previous generations than the present day, however.

The first RPG has some outdated information since it was published in 2005, but its figures from then are:

*Crownlands: 2K gold cloaks and 50 KL ships, 10K-15K soldiers from mainland lords, 3K soldiers and 160 ships controlled by Dragonstone

*North: 45K soldiers

*Iron Islands: 20K soldiers, at least 500 longships

*Riverlands: 45K soldiers

*Vale: 45K soldiers

*Westerlands: 50K soldiers, 50-60 ships

*Reach 80K-100K soldiers, at least 200 ships

*Stormlands: 30K

*Dorne: 50K (since revealed to have been an exaggeration by the Young Dragon)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Possibly this one? "WRT Dornish troop counts, that Dorne's strength in numbers varied from person to person. Tyrion might have one perspective, Daeron (the young king) another, and Oberyn Martell a third. Each POV is of course right in his/her own mind, and the reader must judge who has the best info. I'll vote for Doran Martell on this one, rather than Tyrion."

And yet it seems that Doran has told Quentyn that Dorne has 50.000... right? How else would Quentyn have gotten to that number? It seems like a really bad move to lie to a Queen you are trying to get as your ally and wife.

[TheCrannogDweller]

And yet it seems that Doran has told Quentyn that Dorne has 50.000... right? How else would Quentyn have gotten to that number? It seems like a really bad move to lie to a Queen you are trying to get as your ally and wife.

Are you saying that Quentyn would lie about the size of his spear power to impress a girl? No way. :D

Seriously though, Quentyn is not exactly in the loop. Doran didn't even tell his heir, Arianne, all of this until the time was right. Not telling Quentyn and allowing him to maintain the illusion of Dorne's power sounds right up Doran's alley.

[Stormland's Fury]

Seriously though, Quentyn is not exactly in the loop. Doran didn't even tell his heir, Arianne, all of this until the time was right. Not telling Quentyn and allowing him to maintain the illusion of Dorne's power sounds right up Doran's alley.

As much as I admire Doran, this could bite him in the ass though. Let's say Quentyn's plan worked and they got Dany on their side. She would make preparations for an invasion, as do her advisers with a starting point in Dorne.

After they already planned for Dorne's strength and returned with Quentyn: "So we can count on your 50.000 men?" - "Uhm, yes about that."

Not only would they be 20.000 men short, but it doesn't make a good impression if the main ally doesn't keep itself in the loop and started already off by feeding false information.

Not to say that this would be a big hindrance, but still. Especially since Dany is already fed up with untruthful allies at that point.

[TheCrannogDweller]

As much as I admire Doran, this could bite him in the ass though. Let's say Quentyn's plan worked and they got Dany on their side. She would make preparations for an invasion, as do her advisers with a starting point in Dorne.

Yes, you are right. I don't really remember that chapter, but if Quentyn did tell Dany that he could offer 50 000 spears that means that he is either ignorant or lying - and the latter just doesn't seem to be in his character.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

That's just a claim. Stannis is better informed than almost anybody, but he doesn't know everything. For example, he had no idea about the clans. Dorne's true strength should be about as obscure.

Yeah, but I wasn't just talking about Dorne.

To be honest it's probably to serve the plot and make it easier for us as readers to get a concept of scope. Since the books are told exclusively as POV's the characters have to know those numbers, otherwise we wouldn't.

Perhaps. It's not just about the main characters knowing these numbers though, it is that they exist in the first place. Realistically there shouldn't be any firm limit for how many troops a certain region could raise for a war (at least not one that would come into play in a rather spread out and limited one like in the books). The Westerosi don't keep standing armies after all. As long as they have weapons and supplies and people willing to fight they can keep gathering militias. Like the Umbers seem to have done as of ADWD, since all their real warriors died or were captured.

[Stormland's Fury]

Perhaps. It's not just about the main characters knowing these numbers though, it is that they exist in the first place. Realistically there shouldn't be any firm limit for how many troops a certain region could raise for a war (well, at least not one that would come into play in one like in the books). The Westerosi don't keep standing armies after all. As long as they have weapons and money and people willing to fight they can keep gathering militias.

That's exactly my opinion as well.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

That's exactly my opinion as well.

Okay, yeah I should have read the entire thread before replying.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

Okay, yeah I should have read the entire thread before replying.

of course not! Or you wouldnt be honouring your nick name!

[The Academic Wolf]

Yeah, but I wasn't just talking about Dorne.

Perhaps. It's not just about the main characters knowing these numbers though, it is that they exist in the first place. Realistically there shouldn't be any firm limit for how many troops a certain region could raise for a war (at least not one that would come into play in a rather spread out and limited one like in the books). The Westerosi don't keep standing armies after all. As long as they have weapons and supplies and people willing to fight they can keep gathering militias. Like the Umbers seem to have done as of ADWD, since all their real warriors died or were captured.

I both agree and disagree here. I think that it would ultimately depend on when those armies were being gathered, and where. If it is closer to the harvest time, then there is going to be a greater need to keep people in the field working, rather than have them taking up a sword. In the height of summer or the depths of winter, then I can certainly see those numbers going up. Similarly, if we are talking about the Reach, then I can see such a warm, fertile region having more people to spare than say the North.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

of course not! Or you wouldnt be honouring your nick name!

Such an obvious thing doesn't need to be honored, really.

I both agree and disagree here. I think that it would ultimately depend on when those armies were being gathered, and where. If it is closer to the harvest time, then there is going to be a greater need to keep people in the field working, rather than have them taking up a sword. In the height of summer or the depths of winter, then I can certainly see those numbers going up. Similarly, if we are talking about the Reach, then I can see such a warm, fertile region having more people to spare than say the North.

Sure, the number of men you can gather for a particular army depends on lots of different factors, but what people are discussing here isn't really that. But rather the maximum number of men a certain house/kingdom can gather over an entire war. Which there shouldn't really be any static numbers for.

I really disagree with your idea about a larger turnout during the depths of winter though. Historically speaking until fairly recently winter has been the "off season" almost everywhere (or at least the parts of the world where there were real winters) when it came to warfare, when armies were either disbanded or went into winter quarters, and there were many reasons for that.

Living in field conditions during sub zero temperatures isn't very fun, I can say personally, and I didn't even do it when it was all that cold. The people I know whose conscription period started during the depths of winter as you put it, still have almost traumatic memories from it. Going on long campaigns during conditions like those should be unsustainable.

[paramount]

Dorne is confusing Quentyn says Dorne can muster 50 000 however that is almost twice more than what the Stormlands and Iron Islands can muster. However Doran says it is bad to go to war since he says Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms which I have a hard time believing.

[species5618w]

How many soldiers actually died in the wars? Catelyn mentioned that Jaime's army was regrouping after a complete rout.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I agree with the idea that there is not a set limit per region. Rather, it is about the interplay of multiple factors that I will briefly outline below:

Timing - When does the mobilization take place? Is it harvest time, the beginning of summer, middle of summer, end of summer etc.

Motivation - How committed is the region to the war? Is there internal doubt about it, internal disagreements? Is there lukewarm enthusiasm among some lords etc? Is the region facing an imminent Dothraki invasion or similar existential threat, or is it just a vanity quest of the Lord Paramount to add foreign territories to his domain?

Status and influence of the Lord Paramount at the time - Is he a proven battle leader commanding massive respect, like Eddard Stark did at the start of the War of the Five Kings, or is he an unproven child like Robb, who still had to fight for control of his bannermen even after they had assembled at Winterfell?

Status and influence of each of his respective bannerlords in their respective regions - It is one thing for the Lord Paramount to be a highly authoratative Tywin Lannister or Eddard Stark, but if his bannermen have poor control of their individual regions, they may not be able to raise as many men as they should from their vassals and smallfolk.

State of food stores and the economy - Has the region experienced a few decades of relative prosperity, or are they at a low point in terms of accumulated resources

Martial culture of the region - This is where the Ironborn are able to punch above their demographic weight.

The weather at the time - This may sound insignificant, but we have seen election turnouts influenced by whether it is raining on the day or not, and I see no reason why extended periods of bad weather could not influence whether a knight decides to leave his home or not to go forth to the gathering.

Recent political and military history - Has the region been through recent political turmoil etc? Are they tired of war? This would have an undoubted influence.

Cyclical demographic status - England's population fluctuated wildly over the course of the centuries, from 1 million to 4 million and down again, before going up again. Each kingdom would go through boom and bust periods, diseases etc. This will inevitably result in wild fluctuations in terms of what armies can be raised from one decade to the next.

Random other influences, too many to mention - What is the nature of the war they are embarking on? What are the chances of looting and pillaging? We see the Karstarks specifically were eager to go forth, at the thought of all the loot and ransoms they could collect. What is the nature of other threats like Wildling armies at the Wall, the state of the Watch, rumours of Ironborn raiding, internal divisions between lords etc. etc. All of these would have an influence.

Then of course you have the size and geography of the region - This is self explanatory.

All of the above, and many more factors that I no doubt missed out - would make the number of men that can be raised by a region vary wildly over time. Fact is, with a population in the millions in each of the regions, the loss of 20,000 - 40,000 men is not going to depopulate the region. So just because 20k men are lost, does not mean there are not another 20k to replace them, if the other factors listed above combine fortuitously.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

Pretty much. How much equipment and weapons the region has should be a factor too though. Since due to these things being hand made by professionals rather than mass produced, it should be hard to get lots of new ones quickly during a war scenario.

[Michael Herman]

For the nth time. There are no standing armies in Westeros.

Doran says they can raise that much. I have no idea what the population of Marocco nor the size of it's army is. But if it suddenly says it could draft more men in case of war than let's say France, then something is odd. The leaders of the other regions are no idiots and at least can estimate the capacity of others. Especially since we see that first hand, several times. Yet Dorne seems to be magically exempt from this.

Every region had mostly border skirmishes not only Dorne yet all the other commanders seem to know roughly what the opposing strength might be in their core regions.Also they clearly have maps with all the cities and seats of whole Westeros and that Dorne is mostly desert is no secret. Not hard to deduce that if 75% are inhabitable or fit to grow resources to sustain a larger army when you yourself rule a territory the same size but with more habitable space and fertile lands that you have more men that you possible could draft.

If Doran feels the need to establish that he has 50.000 men at his disposal than it's because the others already (correctly) estimated his true strength.

If they don't even have an estimation in the first place, why bother with the bluff because no sane commander is going to invade Dorne on their territory without knowing their strength, unless they have absolutely superiority for sure which makes the bluff completely pointless in the first place.

And again if everyone in Westeros is roughly aware of anyone's numbers why can't they estimate Dorne's numbers and think the numbers don't add up.

Doran's bluff worked not because he successfully fooled everyone but because no one gives a shit. The only thing he does, is that he may deceive potential allies who would suddenly be 20.000 men short when taking allying with him in consideration.

GRRM overestimated the numbers and then retconned it, is of course the real reason.

The theory I've seen and liked is that most visitors to Dorne only see the major castles and populated areas, like the banks of the rivers, and they incorrectly assume that most of Dorne has such numbers, whereas in reality 90% of it is barren desert.

[Michael Herman]

They did have a small number from the Reach as well iirc, but I don't know where I read that.

I believe it's implied, and George mentioned it in an interview somewhere, however the numbers were very low, barely in the thousands, if that.