Why is The Mance trying to rescue fake Arya?

[Janicia]

Back up for a second. I don't think that all the lords inside Winterfell don't recognize that this isn't Arya. I am not positing that Mance can recognize a fake while no one else can. That said, of everyone gathered there, Mance would have seen Arya most recently in that he was at the feast when Robert came, and we don't have any indication that these others saw her after that point. Further, Mance would have seen that she looks just like Jon Snow, and Mance has just spent a good deal of time with Jon Snow.

But I don't happen to think that none of the people inside don't know this is a fake. I think Mance knows, but I think others know as well. That Manderly calls for Danny Flint-- a song about a girl pretending to be something else and getting raped-- at the wedding, might serve as a clue that no one inside (at least Manderly) isn't buying this.

I also don't think that Mance is necessarily actually allied with the Northmen and genuinely wants what's best for them. I don't know why you're arguing against that framework-- I most certainly did not posit it.

Killing Fake Arya does not make as much sense as extracting her from the POV of the Northmen who might recognize that she's fake. Killing her and blaming Rams isn't going to accomplish anything.

How exactly do you see that playing out in the Northmen's favor from the inside? Have someone kill her, then get Whoresbane or someone to climb the walls, tell everyone in the Northern camps that Rams killed her, and hope they give up the siege until spring when the advantage would be better?

Or-- do you make removing fake Arya from Winterfell alive a priority, send the fake into the camp so that others know she's not Arya, and-- most importantly-- give the Bolton forces a reason to leave the castle and be defeated? Look at how Bolton is playing this. He's keeping his own Dreadfort men in reserve. He's setting it up so that all these Northmen and Stannis destroy each other, while he retains the Dreadfort men to be the last man standing. If the fake Arya was on the loose, however, this is the circumstance that gets the Dreadfort men outside the castle to retrieve her. It's the chance to turn this from a siege with the real enemies inside to a battle the Northmen have a shot at winning-- this might give them Rams.

I don't think the Northern politics is Mance's priority. I think Mance attempted to rescue Arya so that he would have leverage with Jon/Melissandre, and Mance didn't care much about what happened to the Bolton and anti-Bolton coalitions as a result. Screwing around with Boltons and Umbers doesn't get his son back nor grant his people safety. And Stannis is probably Mance's least favorite faction leader - if Mance was trying to align the powers in the North toward a wildling-friendly leadership, he should be trying to bolster the Boltons against Stannis.

Going for Jeyne was a suicide mission. Despite the good luck of the distracting altercation surrounding the Frey kids' death and the success of recruiting Theon, the spearwives probably all died, who knows what happened to Mance, and Stannis ended up with Jeyne which couldn't have been the plan. The rescue was beyond Mance's capabilities. Mance must have tried it out of desperation, because "Arya" was the only leverage big enough to get what he wanted from Jon/Melissandre. If Mance knew Jeyne wasn't Arya, she simply wasn't worth going on a desperate suicide rescue mission for.

[butterbumps!]

I don't think the Northern politics is Mance's priority. I think Mance attempted to rescue Arya so that he would have leverage with Jon/Melissandre, and Mance didn't care much about what happened to the Bolton and anti-Bolton coalitions as a result. Screwing around with Boltons and Umbers doesn't get his son back nor grant his people safety. And Stannis is probably Mance's least favorite faction leader - if Mance was trying to align the powers in the North toward a wildling-friendly leadership, he should be trying to bolster the Boltons against Stannis.

Going for Jeyne was a suicide mission. Despite the good luck of the distracting altercation surrounding the Frey kids' death and the success of recruiting Theon, the spearwives probably all died, who knows what happened to Mance, and Stannis ended up with Jeyne which couldn't have been the plan. The rescue was beyond Mance's capabilities. Mance must have tried it out of desperation, because "Arya" was the only leverage big enough to get what he wanted from Jon/Melissandre. If Mance knew Jeyne wasn't Arya, she simply wasn't worth going on a desperate suicide rescue mission for.

You might be conflating my points. In general, you keep arguing against points I'm not even making.

I don't think Northern politics is a priority for Mance. I think Mance's priority is something that involves being inside Winterfell.

Winterfell is surrounded by Northmen outside, and full of more Northmen and Boltons inside. In order for him to get inside Winterfell and accomplish whatever it is he's trying to do, he needs to make some kind of common cause with at least the Northmen outside. At minimum, he needs to physically get through their siege, sneak in, and sneak out.

To make this less of a suicide mission, making nice with the exterior Northmen- at minimum- is prudent.

Independently of Mance, the Northmen-- in and out-- have incentive to rescue Arya. Even the ones inside who might know she's fake have incentive to extract her.

Promising the Northmen that he intends to perform an Arya extraction gets Mance into Winterfell easily. Following through with the extraction is what enables him to then leave the castle that is surrounded by Northmen who all have an incentive to get ahold of Arya, real or fake.

[Little Member]

For people who believe Mance wrote the letter, did you miss the part where Theon witnesses three of the spearwives bite it personally? We don't know about the others who went back to save Mance or the one left inside the room to play as Jeyne. We can assume the others were killed as well or are being tortured and flayed somewhere. If Mance wrote the letter himself, it would mean he somehow made it out of Winterfell alive, found a jar of ink, some parchment paper, and a trained raven to fly to the Wall somewhere in the wilderness, and while freezing in the middle of a blizzard decided to sit down and play a mean spirited jape on Jon before dying of exposure. So, Mance feels he won't get his until Jon get's his. Mance is too comfortable for it to be getting his son(it is a boy, Gilly's was a boy, it'd be hard to pass a boy baby for a girl.) Maybe a promise of some magical power.

[Brav]

We don't know a lot of what Stannis, Mel and Mance planned but Stannis has clearly seen the strategic importance of having an allied Stark in Winterfell. Look at where the series is headed: with the Lannisters weakened Stannis now gets his best shot at the Iron Throne and Jon's story arc requires that he takes a step up from being Lord Commander and becomes THE man in the north. There are a lot of advantages to Mance to see Stannis and Jon succeed and the north with a Stark in charge again.

[Pod The Impaler]

Mel saved him, and she needs something from Jon. So, she has Mance by the wildling balls. Mance knows Melisandre is powerful, why messing up with her when she actually saved his life? Also, they have his son.

And he IS a decent human being. Why not? They all know that Arya, fake or not, is being tortured by a monster.

I think Mance would care, and want her rescused from Ramsay ... but if the Starks are known to the Free Folk, then the Boltons are as well. He'd know what he risks by pissing them off.

I think Mance being bound to Melisandre by magic is one part; knowing his infant son is a hostage is another. The raid was actually Melisandre's idea, not Jon's.

Maybe also Mance figures he can abscond with Arya and use her as a hostage, to gain concessions such as his son and Val being released, that sort of thing.

He has seen Arya, but did he know at the time that it was Arya? Was Jeyne possibly sitting at the same table as Sansa, maybe even next to her, at the time that he saw her? Realistically, what are the odds that Mance would take note of who was whom? He saw a familiar face. He assumed Jeyne was Arya. I'm not saying it's fact, but isn't it a possibility?

Yup. This is also possible. Arya is often said to be dirty and mistaken for some servant girl. Mance would look over and see Sansa giggling with Jeyne Poole, and assume that's Arya. Mance would not necessarily pay attention to Lord Stark's younger daughter. He was there to observe the king and Lord Stark, and who the hell knows if he was worried about Benjen recognizing him and had to be careful about where he was lurking.

There is also this possibility :

Mance didn't go to Winterfell for Arya, that much is plain. Otherwise he wouldn't be looking for the crypts.

Why would Mance go to Winterfell the first time? Just on a lark to see the king ? Perhaps he infiltrated for other reasons.

For all anyone knows, the actual Horn of Joramun was down there in Winterfell's crypts. The wildlings had been looking for it in the Frostfangs by digging graves, but they were also afraid to just blow it and bring down the wall with the threat of the Others. Well, if that's what it could do, and was once used as a weapon against the Others, then why the hell would someone stash it north of the Wall ? Better to keep it on the other side, somewhere where men worship the Old Gods, amongst those who understand that winter is coming.

[Janicia]

You might be conflating my points. In general, you keep arguing against points I'm not even making.

I don't think Northern politics is a priority for Mance. I think Mance's priority is something that involves being inside Winterfell.

Winterfell is surrounded by Northmen outside, and full of more Northmen and Boltons inside. In order for him to get inside Winterfell and accomplish whatever it is he's trying to do, he needs to make some kind of common cause with at least the Northmen outside. At minimum, he needs to physically get through their siege, sneak in, and sneak out.

To make this less of a suicide mission, making nice with the exterior Northmen- at minimum- is prudent.

Independently of Mance, the Northmen-- in and out-- have incentive to rescue Arya. Even the ones inside who might know she's fake have incentive to extract her.

Promising the Northmen that he intends to perform an Arya extraction gets Mance into Winterfell easily. Following through with the extraction is what enables him to then leave the castle that is surrounded by Northmen who all have an incentive to get ahold of Arya, real or fake.

Is Winterfell really that hard to sneak into and out of? It is packed full of strangers, so you don't have to worry about somebody realizing you are a stranger. Theon's raiding team was able to get into the castle pretty easily and quietly even before the castle was damaged and the spearwives were able to sneak around Winterfell murdering people without getting caught. And the hooded man is also sneaking about. And the spearwives didn't use any northern connections to get Jeyne out of Winterfell; they just used rope.

I agree with you that Manderly needing a singer implies that he did have some kind of agreement to get Mance into Winterfell. But extracting Jeyne from Winterfell did not make it easier or safer for Mance to get out of Winterfell. And once he is out of Winterfell, what further need does he have from the Northmen? Wildlings are skilled at traveling through snow. Mance didn't go through with the extraction until after the Manderly and Frey armies had marched out of Winterfell to brawl. Surely in that chaos, Mance could have slipped out of Winterfell.

It might make sense for Mance to promise to extract Arya so that Manderly gives him safe passage into Winterfell. But once Mance has what he wanted from Winterfell, he can leave Winterfell more easily without Jeyne. The only reason to extract Jeyne is if he thinks she is Arya.

[butterbumps!]

Is Winterfell really that hard to sneak into and out of? It is packed full of strangers, so you don't have to worry about somebody realizing you are a stranger. Theon's raiding team was able to get into the castle pretty easily and quietly even before the castle was damaged and the spearwives were able to sneak around Winterfell murdering people without getting caught. And the hooded man is also sneaking about. And the spearwives didn't use any northern connections to get Jeyne out of Winterfell; they just used rope.

I agree with you that Manderly needing a singer implies that he did have some kind of agreement to get Mance into Winterfell. But extracting Jeyne from Winterfell did not make it easier or safer for Mance to get out of Winterfell. And once he is out of Winterfell, what further need does he have from the Northmen? Wildlings are skilled at traveling through snow. Mance didn't go through with the extraction until after the Manderly and Frey armies had marched out of Winterfell to brawl. Surely in that chaos, Mance could have slipped out of Winterfell.

It might make sense for Mance to promise to extract Arya so that Manderly gives him safe passage into Winterfell. But once Mance has what he wanted from Winterfell, he can leave Winterfell more easily without Jeyne. The only reason to extract Jeyne is if he thinks she is Arya.

When Theon snuck in there wasn't a siege outside. It's specifically being able to get through the siege on his way in and out that I'm speaking to. The prudent thing to do would be to make some kind of common cause with the army surrounding the castle, watching it.

[Wmarshal]

Because he may think it is Arya, the feast was a few years ago and we don't know how well he saw Arya or think she just grew.

[sj4iy]

Because he may think it is Arya, the feast was a few years ago and we don't know how well he saw Arya or think she just grew.

Her eye color wouldn't have changed.

[Wmarshal]

Her eye color wouldn't have changed.

Of which did he see her eyes either time?

[ARYa_Nym]

I don't think that Jeyne would necessarily be a familiar face. She wasn't to any of the Northmen there. & Theon couldn't remember what she looked like. He even said if she was pretty before she isn't now.

Arya isn't recognizable to people based on looks. Even Jon asked himself if he would be able to. IDK if Mance would just assume that Jeyne is her though. That Umber didn't.

But still brown hair is enough. Look at show Arya. Many say that she is exactly like how they envisioned Arya even though the author said Arya is sharp featured, long faced, and has dark grey eyes and Maisie has none of those attributes.

[sj4iy]

Of which did he see her eyes either time?

"I betook of your lord father’s meat and mead, had a look at Kingslayer and Imp... and made passing note of Lord Eddard’s children and the wolf pups that ran at their heels.”

Mance's own words. He recognized Jon immediately. He would know what Arya looked like, including her eye color, because they both look like 'Starks'.

[ARYa_Nym]

Her eyes are a color that can be easily mistaken for something else at a distance. They are dark grey and look black. From a distance they could have looked brown or dark blue for example.

[Janicia]

When Theon snuck in there wasn't a siege outside. It's specifically being able to get through the siege on his way in and out that I'm speaking to. The prudent thing to do would be to make some kind of common cause with the army surrounding the castle, watching it.

But rescuing Jeyne wasn't a prudent way to attempt to leave Winterfell. It was hugely risky. The prudent exit would be sneaking out in the chaos after Manderly's stabbing, and if captured by the besieging forces, Mance has plenty of information to bargain for safe passage.

I agree with you that Mance and Manderly probably made a deal before entering Winterfell. But once they enter Winterfell, you point out that Manderly seems to know that Arya is fake, and Manderly is communicating with the besieging forces. So if Mance also knows that Jeyne isn't Arya, why would he take a huge risk to deliver Jeyne to a group of people that know she's not Arya? Those people don't want Jeyne; at most they just don't want the Boltons to have her. Northmen are reaching out to Jon and Rickon - they don't need Jeyne to be their figurehead. If Mance was all knowing, he wouldn't have taken Jeyne.

I also think it works better for the narrative theme of Theon's arc if Theon is the only one of Jeyne's rescuers to know that she's not Arya.

[Muggle]

It doesn't matter if Mance knows if Arya is fake or not. He is going to proceed with helping her escape WF regardless. Just as Theon helped. Mance is being supported by the Umbers and some of the Northern Clans. Mance isnt going to back out on the recuse plan and lose support of the Umbers.

The Red Letter is most likley the result of Mance plans going wrong and needed another out. He sent or influenced the letter to be sent to Jon because he was expecting Tormund to be on the south side of the wall. He was looking to have Jon and Tormund ride south to Winterfell giving him another chance.

The Umbers are are working with the Manderlys to free the North of a Bolton control. They have a plan to do this with out the support of Stannis. When you look closely at the situation in the North it all become clear.

1. Umbers / Manderlys doing a joint venture to build a lot of war ships.

2. Manderly / Glover raising men in White Harbor.

3. 1 Umber inside of WF 1 outside. Umbers refuse to fight Umber vs Umber

4. Manderly has over 100 Landed knights and just has the biggest army in the North

5. Manderly takes only 100 common knights to WF. Manderly leaves his cousin and right hand man behind.

6. Manderlys main force is sitting in the Wolfs Wood.

7. Glover is Hooded Man he is there to put specifics on the plan. Also to start in conjuction with Mance cause chaos in Winterfell forcing Roose to send men out.

8. Umbers wont Fight vs Umbers so they get to stay inside.

9. Umbers inside revlot and open the gates once they have confirmation that FArya is out.

10. Umbers / Manderly forces poor into Winterfel once the Inside Umbers perform there Trojen Horse.

Above was the plan. I assume it didnt go a smoothly as possible at least for Mance cause of the Red Letter.

Lets look at Stannis.

1. Umber keels to Stannis. The 1st Northern to do so.

2. Umber refuses to tell Stannis how big is army is and what his strategy is out side of WF keeping him in the dark. Stannis has to go to Theon to get an idea of what Umber is up to.

3. Stannis wins Deep Wood. He gets a surge of new recruits. But whats intersting to note here is that some of them are survivors from the battle at the gates of WF where Ramsey sacked WF

4. Those people apparently never tell Stannis it was Ramsey who sacked WF and betrayed the Starks. Cause once more Stannis needs to go to Theon for infromation about Ramsey and what battles he has won.

5. Stannis has the Red God and is known to burn heart trees.

6. The Northern People are using Stannis then there going to cut him loose. They wont support him in his campaign.

[Lady Fevre Dream]

I can't be the only one who thought all the questions from the spearwives and by extension, Mance, about Theon's taking of Winterfell and questions on crypts were about.......Mance and the spearwives looking for a way out once they had Arya or a place to hide and wait out the army (just as Bran and Rickon did) once they had the girl. Mance knows the stories of the crypts, I'd just always thought he was trying to formulate a plan for when they did snatch the girl from Ramsey. Granted, all of Mance's questions could be about something deeper, that is possible, but it could also just be as simple as........trying to decide whether to flee with the girl, or hide with the girl in the crypts and wait it out for a better chance of escape? Just like Bran and Rickon and company.

[butterbumps!]

But rescuing Jeyne wasn't a prudent way to attempt to leave Winterfell. It was hugely risky. The prudent exit would be sneaking out in the chaos after Manderly's stabbing, and if captured by the besieging forces, Mance has plenty of information to bargain for safe passage.

I agree with you that Mance and Manderly probably made a deal before entering Winterfell. But once they enter Winterfell, you point out that Manderly seems to know that Arya is fake, and Manderly is communicating with the besieging forces. So if Mance also knows that Jeyne isn't Arya, why would he take a huge risk to deliver Jeyne to a group of people that know she's not Arya? Those people don't want Jeyne; at most they just don't want the Boltons to have her. Northmen are reaching out to Jon and Rickon - they don't need Jeyne to be their figurehead. If Mance was all knowing, he wouldn't have taken Jeyne.

I also think it works better for the narrative theme of Theon's arc if Theon is the only one of Jeyne's rescuers to know that she's not Arya.

I've already explained why the Northmen would have incentive to get Arya out of Winterfell whether she's real or not. For anyone inside unsure of whether she's fake, the reason to extract her should be self-evident.

Among the Northmen inside who believe she's fake, their incentives to extract her are:

1. Show the Northmen outside that she is indeed a fake so that they have solid reason to end this otherwise pointless siege and more importantly

2. To get Ramsay and the Dreadfort forces to leave Winterfell in an effort to retrieve her so that he walks into their trap

Without a reason like Arya-- real or fake-- Bolton men are going to be the ones who remain inside the castle in perpetuity, so if the Northmen want to actually defeat the Boltons, the way to do it is to entice them outside of the castle so that they lose the advantage and can be defeated.

And ETA: Mance + Co weren't responsible for Little Walder's death, so that hadn't been part of their plan.

[Janicia]

I can't be the only one who thought all the questions from the spearwives and by extension, Mance, about Theon's taking of Winterfell and questions on crypts were about.......Mance and the spearwives looking for a way out once they had Arya or a place to hide and wait out the army (just as Bran and Rickon did) once they had the girl. Mance knows the stories of the crypts, I'd just always thought he was trying to formulate a plan for when they did snatch the girl from Ramsey. Granted, all of Mance's questions could be about something deeper, that is possible, but it could also just be as simple as........trying to decide whether to flee with the girl, or hide with the girl in the crypts and wait it out for a better chance of escape? Just like Bran and Rickon and company.

That makes a lot of sense to me.

If the Starks did have an item of mystical power, wouldn't they know? If it was so old that the Starks had forgotten about it, how does anybody else know? The Starks have much more stability and continuity than the wildlings do. And there was an extended period of time in which Bloodraven was communicating with Bran while Bran was running Winterfell - that would have been a good time to tell Bran about an object of mystical power or book of immense learning that he should use or destroy or hide.

[butterbumps!]

That makes a lot of sense to me.

If the Starks did have an item of mystical power, wouldn't they know? If it was so old that the Starks had forgotten about it, how does anybody else know? The Starks have much more stability and continuity than the wildlings do. And there was an extended period of time in which Bloodraven was communicating with Bran while Bran was running Winterfell - that would have been a good time to tell Bran about an object of mystical power or book of immense learning that he should use or destroy or hide.

Mance is the guy who knows all those old forgotten songs from the past. It's entirely reasonable that he's heard something that makes him think there's some value to being in Winterfell (to do something, to take something, etc). The wildlings seem to remember a bunch of things the Northmen-- and Starks-- seem to have forgotten. For reference, see Bael.

[Janicia]

I've already explained why the Northmen would have incentive to get Arya out of Winterfell whether she's real or not. For anyone inside unsure of whether she's fake, the reason to extract her should be self-evident.

Among the Northmen inside who believe she's fake, their incentives to extract her are:

1. Show the Northmen outside that she is indeed a fake so that they have solid reason to end this otherwise pointless siege and more importantly

2. To get Ramsay and the Dreadfort forces to leave Winterfell in an effort to retrieve her so that he walks into their trap

Without a reason like Arya-- real or fake-- Bolton men are going to be the ones who remain inside the castle in perpetuity, so if the Northmen want to actually defeat the Boltons, the way to do it is to entice them outside of the castle so that they lose the advantage and can be defeated.

And you think the Northmen would put Mance in charge of the key piece of their plan to get rid of the Boltons? Mance is a hated oathbreaker - the kind of guy you put in charge of making a distraction.