Population estimates of the 7K and Essos

[Trickrs]

I'll have a bold estimative (90% of chance of being way wrong).

Let's look at the cities.

KL confirmed for 500,000

Oldtown is said to be sighly smaller than King's Landing and possibly larger before the Grey plague, let's put around 450,000

Lannisport is "Smaller than KL and OT, but larger than Gulltown and White Harbor" let's put a middle of 250,000

Gulltown I put in around 100,000 at the very most.

White Harbor is the smallest, but I don't think it's much smaller the GT, so 80,000

13,800,000 people living in an urban zone, medieval urbanization as like ~5% of the pops? That has 27,600,000 as total population in Westeros.

Throw the stones now.

[Ingelheim]

I'll have a bold estimative (90% of chance of being way wrong).

Let's look at the cities.

KL confirmed for 500,000

Oldtown is said to be sighly smaller than King's Landing and possibly larger before the Grey plague, let's put around 450,000

Lannisport is "Smaller than KL and OT, but larger than Gulltown and White Harbor" let's put a middle of 250,000

Gulltown I put in around 100,000 at the very most.

White Harbor is the smallest, but I don't think it's much smaller the GT, so 80,000

13,800,000 people living in an urban zone, medieval urbanization as like ~5% of the pops? That has 27,600,000 as total population in Westeros.

Throw the stones now.

No stones, but I think you mean 1,380,000 and not 13,800,000 :)

Also, I'd add there the towns and everything.

[Arakan]

Interesting then that the North has a city easily as large or larger than Medieval London, despite being a far less urbanized population than medieval England was.

Meaning that it has a far more dispersed and rural based population, and yet STILL has a city as large as London was.

They have also raised armies larger than anything England managed to raise in the Middle Ages, despite having to expend far more resources and effort to gather those troops over vast, rugged distances.

Clearly the North had a much bigger population than medieval England had.

Well I would consider White Harbour a classic "freak" ;).

Dont disagree with your last sentence.

But it's worth to mention that I didnt get the impression that the North's population is (more or less) evenly spread like in e.g. the HRE but concentrated in clusters with vast "empty" lands in between. This would allow for a relatively low population in total (2-4m) and still allow for a reasonable socio-economic structure.

[Free Northman Reborn]

When and where did Arianne say that she believed Dorne could raise 50K spears? That's crazy, and I don't remember her saying that. I do remember Quentyn saying it, but I think it was pretty clear he knew he was bluffing. If you could give me the quote, you'd do me a favor. Right now I don't have the books.

And well, Renly had 100K in the WOT5K. That's the largest army ever raised in Westeros, not the Field of Fire one.

So, now I'm trying to understand your point...you are saying people don't consider the Iron Islands a Kingdom, but they do that with the Riverlands?

If you want my honest opinion... Dorne is the one that shouldn't be considered one of the 7K.

Doran is disabusing Arriane of the commonly held perception of Dorne's strength. This perception is clearly very pervasive, seeing as it is based on Daeron Targaryens historical record of the Conquest of Dorne.

Tyrion believes the 50k figure, based on Daeron's exaggerations, and so does Quentyn. Doran himself tells Arriane that they have allowed Daeron's exaggerations to remain undisputed, to intimidate their enemies. The mere fact that he is telling her this, means that she had up to that point also believed in the mythical figure.

As for the Field of Fire - it was the largest army ever raised up to that point. Which was also the point where the Kingdom of River and Isles ceased to exist. Hence, the Kingdom of River and Isles had never over the course of its existence raised an army of that size.

The fact is, the historical reference to the Seven Kingdoms is no longer accurate today. If you compare your kingdom to the other 6 kingdoms, then you have to be leaving one out. And it can only be one of the Riverlands or Iron Isles.

It is clear which one the Royal chalice of the Baratheons left out. It was the Iron Isles. Which fits with the general mainland Westerosi view of the Iron Isles as a backwater collection of pirates, rather than a prestigious Great House.

[SerGrahamando ofUttershill]

The population is as big or as small as GRRM needs it to be in order to tell the story he wants, and no amount of logic or real life comparisons will alter that. If he needs there to be 1000000000 people in Sothyros for some reason, then there are.

[Arakan]

The population is as big or as small as GRRM needs it to be in order to tell the story he wants, and no amount of logic or real life comparisons will alter that. If he needs there to be 1000000000 people in Sothyros for some reason, then there are.

While GRRM has quite a lot of room to maneuver, the secondary world should be nonetheless consistent within its given boundaries. That is the main quality criteria of succesful worldbuilding.

So nope, no 1,000,000,000 people in Sothyros, sorry...

[Free Northman Reborn]

Well I would consider White Harbour a classic "freak" ;).

Dont disagree with your last sentence.

But it's worth to mention that I didnt get the impression that the North's population is (more or less) evenly spread like in e.g. the HRE but concentrated in clusters with vast "empty" lands in between. This would allow for a relatively low population in total (2-4m) and still allow for a reasonable socio-economic structure.

Martin says the North and the Vale can raise a similar sized armed strength. I would argue that the Vale's population density and comparative fertility would allow then to raise a larger fraction of their population at lower expense of effort and resources than the North could.

Meaning that if both the Vale and the North can raise the same number of men, this will be a smaller fraction of the North's population than of the Vale's population.

So, for example, if 40k men represents a total population of 4m for the Vale, I would argue that it might represent 5m or 6m people in the North, seeing as the North can't raise as high a ratio of armed men as the Vale can, due to the Norths challenges of geography, climate and distance.

So I guess we need to wait and see how big the Vale army is that has been hidden up to now, but is about to be unleashed in the next book or two.

[Trickrs]

No stones, but I think you mean 1,380,000 and not 13,800,000 :)

Also, I'd add there the towns and everything.

Ops, wild comma :P

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Martin says the North and the Vale can raise a similar sized armed strength. I would argue that the Vale's population density and comparative fertility would allow then to raise a larger fraction of their population at lower expense of effort and resources than the North could.

Martin said that. He said it before he dropped the 5-year-gap and turned the unimportant Dustins and Rhyswells into important Lords and gave the Mountain Clans way more men. Basically, instead of having the North replace their losses, about 20,000 men, during the 5-year-gap, he retconned the North to have had these additional 20,000 men from the start to fit whatever he intends to write for the North.

Meaning that if both the Vale and the North can raise the same number of men, this will be a smaller fraction of the North's population than of the Vale's population.

Spot on. Personally, I estimate mobilization rates for the North at 0.5%, the Vale at 1% and the Reach at 2%, the other regions somewhere in between. Apart from the Iron Islands, who due to their naval-based economy can raise up to 5%.

So, for example, if 40k men represents a total population of 4m for the Vale, I would argue that it might represent 5m or 6m people in the North, seeing as the North can't raise as high a ratio of armed men as the Vale can, due to the Norths challenges of geography, climate and distance.

So I guess we need to wait and see how big the Vale army is that has been hidden up to now, but is about to be unleashed in the next book or two.

Well, six Lords Declarent could easily raise 20,000 men, and the Vale got about 15 Lords who are considered in their league...

[Ingelheim]

Tyrion believes the 50k figure, based on Daeron's exaggerations, and so does Quentyn. Doran himself tells Arriane that they have allowed Daeron's exaggerations to remain undisputed, to intimidate their enemies. The mere fact that he is telling her this, means that she had up to that point also believed in the mythical figure.

I don't think that the fact that someone reminds you of the reality of your situation means you didn't know it before. My father could remind my little brother that he has to do his homework, but that doesn't mean my brother didn't know he had to do it. But to the main discussion this matters nothing.

As for the Field of Fire - it was the largest army ever raised up to that point. Which was also the point where the Kingdom of River and Isles ceased to exist. Hence, the Kingdom of River and Isles had never over the course of its existence raised an army of that size.

Of course not. We both agree here.

The fact is, the historical reference to the Seven Kingdoms is no longer accurate today. If you compare your kingdom to the other 6 kingdoms, then you have to be leaving one out. And it can only be one of the Riverlands or Iron Isles.

Actually, you can leave Dorne out. In fact, it's what makes more sense from a Westerosi point of view. Dorne was never a part of the Iron Throne untill just four generations ago. The Riverlands and the Iron Islands were. But, coming from Doran, this makes little sense.

It is clear which one the Royal chalice of the Baratheons left out. It was the Iron Isles. Which fits with the general mainland Westerosi view of the Iron Isles as a backwater collection of pirates, rather than a prestigious Great House.

Here is where we disagree. I don't believe just because many Westerosi consider the Ironborn just a bunch of pirates they don't consider the Iron Islands a Kingdom. That's like saying the men from the Reach or the Stormlands consider House Martell just a collection of crazy Dornishmen. They probably do, but I doubt they don't consider Dorne a part of the Realm, to be honest.

I just think we are not going to agree. But either way, the Iron Islands and Dorne are far less populated than the North, Riverlands, Reach, Vale or the Westerlands. At the end, it doesn't matter.

[Free Northman Reborn]

True.

Also, thanks for reminding me. The disproportionate mobilization rate for the Iron Islands is another nail in the coffin of the argument that Dorne has a lower population than the Iron Isles.

Because even the wildest estimates for the Iron Isles armed strength don't approach the 50k men level, so even if Dorne can only raise 25k men (which is probably a bare minimum for their strength), the mobilization rate disparity will still result in them having a higher population than the Iron Isles.

[Arakan]

True.

Also, thanks for reminding me. The disproportionate mobilization rate for the Iron Islands is another nail in the coffin of the argument that Dorne has a lower population than the Iron Isles.

Because even the wildest estimates for the Iron Isles armed strength don't approach the 50k men level, so even if Dorne can only raise 25k men (which is probably a bare minimum for their strength), the mobilization rate disparity will still result in them having a higher population than the Iron Isles.

Absolutely. The Iron Islands are small but the IB are quite a "warrior society".

Dorne might be mostly desert in its core but no way has it a lower population than the II (which I would estimate at 500k at max). At least I cannot imagine it.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Absolutely. The Iron Islands are small but the IB are quite a "warrior society".

Dorne might be mostly desert in its core but no way has it a lower population than the II (which I would estimate at 500k at max). At least I cannot imagine it.

The Ironborn got at least 25,000 men, probably 35,000 or more.

Using my upper limit of 5%, that's at least 500,000 inhabitants and that's the most conservative estimate possible. About a million, maybe up to two is more reasonable.

Remember, the Iron Islands combined landmass isn't much less than that of England and they're notoriously overcrowded.

[Ingelheim]

Absolutely. The Iron Islands are small but the IB are quite a "warrior society".

Dorne might be mostly desert in its core but no way has it a lower population than the II (which I would estimate at 500k at max). At least I cannot imagine it.

The Iron Islands are nearly the size of Ireland, and pretty overcrowded.

The Iberian Kingdoms in the Middle Ages had a mobilization rate of nearly an 8% (being, by far, the biggest in Europe). This happened because the Iberian Kingdoms were actually quite small at the beginning, and also quite less populated than the Muslim ones.

Using a rate of 5% (nearly a half of that 8% mentioned), and the numbers given in AFFC and ADWD, I'd say the Ironborn can raise, at least, 35-40K men. That would mean, at least, a population of 700,000-800,000.

[Arakan]

The Ironborn got at least 25,000 men, probably 35,000 or more.

Using my upper limit of 5%, that's at least 500,000 inhabitants and that's the most conservative estimate possible. About a million, maybe up to two is more reasonable.

Remember, the Iron Islands combined landmass isn't much less than that of England and they're notoriously overcrowded.

The II are IMO way smaller than England. Based on the LOIAF Westeros map, it seems that the combined landmass of the 7 islands is not bigger than half of Ireland (~40k sqkm).

But anyway I should correct myself, 0.5-1.0m seems still reasonable given a relatively high population density :).

Of course including "useless" thralls (only in a warrior sense ;) ).

[Free Northman Reborn]

The Iron Islands are nearly the size of Ireland, and pretty overcrowded.

The Iberian Kingdoms in the Middle Ages had a mobilization rate of nearly an 8% (being, by far, the biggest in Europe). This happened because the Iberian Kingdoms were actually quite small at the beginning, and also quite less populated than the Muslim ones.

Using a rate of 5% (nearly a half of that 8% mentioned), and the numbers given in AFFC and ADWD, I'd say the Ironborn can raise, at least, 35-40K men. That would mean, at least, a population of 700,000-800,000.

I agree with that. Dorne in contrast, has a minimum population of around 2.5 million.

[Arakan]

The Iron Islands are nearly the size of Ireland, and pretty overcrowded.

The Iberian Kingdoms in the Middle Ages had a mobilization rate of nearly an 8% (being, by far, the biggest in Europe). This happened because the Iberian Kingdoms were actually quite small at the beginning, and also quite less populated than the Muslim ones.

Using a rate of 5% (nearly a half of that 8% mentioned), and the numbers given in AFFC and ADWD, I'd say the Ironborn can raise, at least, 35-40K men. That would mean, at least, a population of 700,000-800,000.

dont agree with the first sentence wrt landmass (but thats nitpicking). But the last one I agree with (corrected myself).

[Ingelheim]

I agree with that. Dorne in contrast, has a minimum population of around 2.5 million.

I'd say Dorne has a far lower population than that. Around 1.25-1.5 million, with a 2% of mobilization rate, which is quite accurate for the size of Dorne.

While the Iron Islands probably have a less rate than the one I mentioned (I'd say around 4% instead of 5%, but, of course, this is my own opinion). Giving the size of the Iron Fleet and the hundreds of ships the captains and Houses have, I think the IB can raise 40K men. Which would mean a population of nearly 1 million. But, of course, this is using quite a high mobilization rate for the Iron Islands. A really high one.

dont agree with the first sentence wrt landmass (but thats nitpicking). But the last one I agree with (corrected myself).

Well, I haven't done the maths (I don't think anyone has), but at the end, it doesn't really matter.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I'd say Dorne has a far lower population than that. Around 1.25-1.5 million, with a 2% of mobilization rate, which is quite accurate for the size of Dorne.

While the Iron Islands probably have a less rate than the one I mentioned (I'd say around 4% instead of 5%, but, of course, this is my own opinion). Gibing the size of the Iron Fleet and the hundreds of ships the captains and Houses have, I think the IB can raise 40K men. Which would mean a population of nearly 1 million. But, of course, this is using quite a high mobilization rate for the Iron Islands. A really high one.

Ok. I have no particular view on Dorne's mobilization rate. I always assumed it would be about the average for Westeros, with the North having the lowest mobilization rate, and the Iron Isles having the highest, as per Martin's comments on the two regions.

[Lord Reaver]

But, of course, this is using quite a high mobilization rate for the Iron Islands. A really high one.

Not really. Medieval Norway had a population of 300-450k, and could raise an army of 27-34k, which amounts to between 6 and 11% mobilization, depending of course on which estimates you go with.

Considering there are obvious hints GRRM has taken inspiration from medieval Scandinavia in how the Ironborn military works (the Iron Fleet is pretty much a straight copy of the Leidang), I'd say a similarly high mobilization rate wouldn't be that much of a stretch.

So yeah, the Iron Islands might have the lowest total population, but their unique military organization means they can field an army just below that of the "medium" regions, like The Vale or Riverlands, and above Dorne.

I'd say a population of about 500k, with mobilization of 7-8% sounds about right, yielding an army of 35-40k.