Population estimates of the 7K and Essos

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I'd say Dorne has a far lower population than that. Around 1.25-1.5 million, with a 2% of mobilization rate, which is quite accurate for the size of Dorne.

Too low. Dorne is far too much of a desert to manage 2%. 1%, yes, but no more.

[Ingelheim]

Not really. Medieval Norway had a population of 300-450k, and could raise an army of 27-34k, which amounts to between 6 and 11% mobilization, depending of course on which estimates you go with.

Considering there are obvious hints GRRM has taken inspiration from medieval Scandinavia in how the Ironborn military works (the Iron Fleet is pretty much a straight copy of the Leidang), I'd say a similarly high mobilization rate wouldn't be that much of a stretch.

So yeah, the Iron Islands might have the lowest total population, but their unique military organization means they can field an army just below that of the "medium" regions, like The Vale or Riverlands, and above Dorne.

I'd say a population of about 500k, with mobilization of 7-8% sounds about right, yielding an army of 35-40k.

To be completely honest, I had no idea medieval Norway had a rate that high. I've always thought the Iberian Kingdoms had the highest rate (between a 5 and a 10%).

Also, I think they key is the when. Westeros is based on the late Middle Ages. I don't know if those numbers are just like the Iberian ones (9th, 10th and 11th centuries) or not, and I'll be glad if you could show me.

[Ingelheim]

Too low. Dorne is far too much of a desert to manage 2%. 1%, yes, but no more.

Wouldn't that mean Dorne's population is concentrated in one specific territory?

[Arakan]

Not really. Medieval Norway had a population of 300-450k, and could raise an army of 27-34k, which amounts to between 6 and 11% mobilization, depending of course on which estimates you go with.

Considering there are obvious hints GRRM has taken inspiration from medieval Scandinavia in how the Ironborn military works (the Iron Fleet is pretty much a straight copy of the Leidang), I'd say a similarly high mobilization rate wouldn't be that much of a stretch.

So yeah, the Iron Islands might have the lowest total population, but their unique military organization means they can field an army just below that of the "medium" regions, like The Vale or Riverlands, and above Dorne.

I'd say a population of about 500k, with mobilization of 7-8% sounds about right, yielding an army of 35-40k.

Sounds very reasonable. Given their warrior culture they should really have the highest mobilization rate in the 7K by a very large margin.

Even ~10% doesnt sound too outlandish.

Of course that figure depends very much on the percentage of thralls on the Island (not mustered for war). Actually the MR based on the freeborn population alone must be even considerably higher than the 8-10%.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Wouldn't that mean Dorne's population is concentrated in one specific territory?

Sort of. But it does also mean that the farmers can't get as much produce out of an hour of work than their counterparts in say, the Reach, which got a similar climate but isn't as arid.

Sounds very reasonable. Given their warrior culture they should really have the highest mobilization rate in the 7K by a very large margin.

Even ~10% doesnt sound too outlandish.

10% is industrialization age. Not possible earlier.

[Ingelheim]

Sounds very reasonable. Given their warrior culture they should really have the highest mobilization rate in the 7K by a very large margin.

Even ~10% doesnt sound too outlandish.

Of course that figure depends very much on the percentage of thralls on the Island (not mustered for war). Actually the MR based on the freeborn population alone must be even considerably higher than the 8-10%.

10% is from the 18th and 19th centuries. Impossible for ASOIAF.

Sort of. But it does also mean that the farmers can't get as much produce out of an hour of work than their counterparts in say, the Reach, which got a similar climate but isn't as arid.

That's right, but I still think a 2% isn't too high. I think it fits for Dorne (a territory the size of Spain, sort of).

[Arakan]

10% is industrialization age. Not possible earlier.

Thats not true if posted that way. Tribal societies (Germanic tribes, Mongols) had much higher mobilization rates.

Before someone intervenes...I DO NOT consider the IB a tribal society but the MR of classic feudal societies are also not valid in that case.

Let's hear what Lord Reaver has to say as he is the expert here on Viking culture. I got the 10% from his post.

[Arakan]

10% is from the 18th and 19th centuries. Impossible for ASOIAF.

See response above.

ETA: MR are not somekind of sodoku game but should be put in a specific context. Just stating "impossible for ASOIAF" is not really helpful.

[Ingelheim]

Thats not true if posted that way. Tribal societies (Germanic tribes, Mongols) had much higher mobilization rates.

Before someone intervenes...I DO NOT consider the IB a tribal society but the MR of classic feudal societies are also not valid in that case.

Let's hear what Lord Reaver has to say as he is the expert here on Viking culture. I got the 10% from his post.

As far as the IB are based on Vikings, Viking culture is completely different regarding the raids. Completely

[Arakan]

As far as the IB are based on Vikings, Viking culture is completely different regarding the raids. Completely

As I said: neither you or I are experts in Scandinavian history. Let LR answer that question.

Yes, Viking culture is different from IB culture. But to say "completely" is completely wrong. Rather do the IB represent a specific aspect of Viking culture...that the Vikings were more than that I am completely aware of.

[Lord Reaver]

To be completely honest, I had no idea medieval Norway had a rate that high. I've always thought the Iberian Kingdoms had the highest rate (between a 5 and a 10%).

Also, I think they key is the when. Westeros is based on the late Middle Ages. I don't know if those numbers are just like the Iberian ones (9th, 10th and 11th centuries) or not, and I'll be glad if you could show me.

The numbers are based on the testament of Magnus VI of Norway (1238-1280), and the law text which he amended, the law of the Gula thing, which dates to about 1250.

So it's pretty solidly high middle ages. Comparing it to later Norway would be a bit off, since the population actually drops off drastically, as a result of the Black Death. The Leidang was called out as late as 1429, but by that time it was only a shadow of it's former self, and lost decisively to a much smaller force of German mercenaries.

Edit: I'd post links to the sources, but unfortunately, they are in Norwegian only, so of limited worth on these forums, I expect.

[Arakan]

The numbers are based on the testament of Magnus VI of Norway (1238-1280), and the law text which he amended, the law of the Gula thing, which dates to about 1250.

So it's pretty solidly high middle ages. Comparing it to later Norway would be a bit off, since the population actually drops off drastically, as a result of the Black Death. The Leidang was called out as late as 1429, but by that time it was only a shadow of it's former self, and lost decisively to a much smaller force of German mercenaries.

Edit: I'd post links to the sources, but unfortunately, they are in Norwegian only, so of limited worth on these forums, I expect.

Thank you very much for further clarification :).

[Lord Reaver]

As far as the IB are based on Vikings, Viking culture is completely different regarding the raids. Completely

Eh, there's certain aspects that are very different, but these are predominantly in the mindset of the Ironborn. The whole Old Way stuff, for instance is right out. As is silly stuff like the finger dance.

But when it comes to military organization, it's like I said, pretty clear that GRRM has been influenced heavily by the leidang for the Iron Fleet, and thus by scandinavian kingdoms for the Ironborn themselves.

[Ingelheim]

The numbers are based on the testament of Magnus VI of Norway (1238-1280), and the law text which he amended, the law of the Gula thing, which dates to about 1250.

So it's pretty solidly high middle ages. Comparing it to later Norway would be a bit off, since the population actually drops off drastically, as a result of the Black Death. The Leidang was called out as late as 1429, but by that time it was only a shadow of it's former self, and lost decisively to a much smaller force of German mercenaries.

Edit: I'd post links to the sources, but unfortunately, they are in Norwegian only, so of limited worth on these forums, I expect.

And those numbers are legit? I mean, couldn't Magnus VI be bluffing? We know how these Kings were.

I ask you this because I didn't have a clue about that.

Eh, there's certain aspects that are very different, but these are predominantly in the mindset of the Ironborn. The whole Old Way stuff, for instance is right out. As is silly stuff like the finger dance.

But when it comes to military organization, it's like I said, pretty clear that GRRM has been influenced heavily by the leidang for the Iron Fleet, and thus by scandinavian kingdoms for the Ironborn themselves.

Of course of course, but didn't the Vikings sail every single year? That's something the IB don't do, at least not as often as they Vikings.

[Lord Reaver]

10% is from the 18th and 19th centuries. Impossible for ASOIAF.

Well, the lowest estimate yields about 6%, which is still pretty close to the 8% I proposed for the Iron Islands.

If however, you want to discuss those estimates, you'll have to do so with the historians who have come up with them. Frankly, the ones for the number of soldiers in the Leidang are kinda hard to argue against, since the law text explicitly tell you how many people should be on each ship, and how many ships should be provided by each section of the country. From there it's a matter of math. The range I gave isn't so much uncertainty, as which of the two laws you want to base your calculation on.

Now, the population estimate, I am less read up on, admittedly. I don't see that number as unreasonable, however. The first population census in the mid-17th century had something like 440k inhabitants in Norway.

[Free Northman Reborn]

So who grew the crops and raised the cattle, mended the fences, thatched the roofs, baked the bread, built the ships, tanned the hides...did basically everything needed to keep a society going, while two thirds of the able bodied adult Viking men were away at war?

Because 50% of the population are women. And probably two thirds of men are either children, old people or disabled in some way. Leaving say 15% of the population as able bodied men of fighting age.

So if 10% were in the army, that equates to two thirds of all able bodied men in the kingdom.

How is this possible on a constant basis?

[Lord Reaver]

And those numbers are legit? I mean, couldn't Magnus VI be bluffing? We know how these Kings were.

Eh, no. Remember, this isn't some sort of propaganda text we're talking about here. This is literally the law text setting out how many soldiers should be provided from each part of the country.

I can't really see why Magnus, whose whole life was devoted to reforming the laws (to the point his moniker is "law-amender"), would have fibbed about that in his testament.

Also, the fact that we have two separate texts, written by separate authors, giving roughly the same information, is a good indication Magnus wasn't bullshitting.

Of course of course, but didn't the Vikings sail every single year? That's something the IB don't do, at least not as often as they Vikings.

Eh, hard to say, really. Some people have speculated that yes, it was a yearly thing, done in the summer when there really wasn't that much work to do on their farms. I tend to think it was a matter of whenever you had the resources and time to go out.

The main difference is of course in the nature of the trips. Most Vikings didn't go raiding. By far the majority went to trade and/or settle. It's just that the raiding trips got all the "media attention" of the day.

Also a big difference is that the period of the viking raids was a much more limited one, only a few centuries, whereas the Ironborn seem to have been doing this since, well...forever, and still want to keep doing it. The actual Norse soon found out that trading was preferential to raiding, most likely as a result of the increase in central authority in the rest of Europe.

[Lord Reaver]

How is this possible on a constant basis?

Ah, but that's the key point. It's not a standing army. The leidang is called out as needed. Those men do all that other work while they are not mobilized.

Which was another reason the leidang got smashed in 1429, they weren't professional soldiers like the German mercenaries they faced.

[Ingelheim]

Eh, no. Remember, this isn't some sort of propaganda text we're talking about here. This is literally the law text setting out how many soldiers should be provided from each part of the country.

I can't really see why Magnus, whose whole life was devoted to reforming the laws (to the point his moniker is "law-amender"), would have fibbed about that in his testament.

Also, the fact that we have two separate texts, written by separate authors, giving roughly the same information, is a good indication Magnus wasn't bullshitting.

Eh, hard to say, really. Some people have speculated that yes, it was a yearly thing, done in the summer when there really wasn't that much work to do on their farms. I tend to think it was a matter of whenever you had the resources and time to go out.

The main difference is of course in the nature of the trips. Most Vikings didn't go raiding. By far the majority went to trade and/or settle. It's just that the raiding trips got all the "media attention" of the day.

Also a big difference is that the period of the viking raids was a much more limited one, only a few centuries, whereas the Ironborn seem to have been doing this since, well...forever, and still want to keep doing it. The actual Norse soon found out that trading was preferential to raiding, most likely as a result of the increase in central authority in the rest of Europe.

Thank you!!

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

So who grew the crops and raised the cattle, mended the fences, thatched the roofs, baked the bread, built the ships, tanned the hides...did basically everything needed to keep a society going, while two thirds of the able bodied adult Viking men were away at war?

Because 50% of the population are women. And probably two thirds of men are either children, old people or disabled in some way. Leaving say 15% of the population as able bodied men of fighting age.

So if 10% were in the army, that equates to two thirds of all able bodied men in the kingdom.

How is this possible on a constant basis?

Raiding season would typically only be for a number weeks during the summer.

You really don't want to travel across oceans on open boats like the Vikings had during winter and autumn, I think...