Population estimates of the 7K and Essos

[Ingelheim]

Don't want to use specific numbers(neither does GRRM), but my general ranking for region populations for me goes: Reach>North≥Westerlands>Riverlands≥Vale>Stormlands>Dorne>Crownlands>Iron Islands Reach is the undisputed king of population. The North while having a low population density still covers almost as much land as the seven kingdoms combined with fertile land up to the gift(mobilization is hard though). Westerlands are mostly fertile, and rich with the 3rd largest city in Westeros which gives them an edge on medium population regions. Riverlands while not having any city is extremely fertille with allot of small towns. The Vale while fertile is mostly mountains, with the true "vale" is only 1/3 of the Vale. The Stormlands lacks a city, but has respectable population density for a kingdom. Dorne is a desert but still a Kingdom, while the Crownlands have the largest city in Westeros. The Iron Islands while having a large population density, are still ****ing small.

I pretty much agree with all of that. Well summarized.

Doran himself said Dorne was the least populated of the regions of the Seven Kingdoms.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Doran himself said Dorne was the least populated of the regions of the Seven Kingdoms.

And which are the Seven Kingdoms he is referring to?

Well, Joffrey tells us, when he mocks Sansa with the seven sided chalice representing each of the Seven Kingdoms. It has the following sigils on its seven sides:

Stag

Wolf

Rose

Sun

Lion

Falcon

and Trout.

Joffrey taunts Sansa by saying that now that the Starks are attainted as traitors, and the Greyjoys have captured Winterfell, he should remove the Wolf and replace it with a Kraken.

So clearly, the Iron Isles are not traditionally considered one of the Seven Kingdoms.

It is quite obvious Doran is not including the Iron Isles in his comparison. Aside from the fact that logic would also dictate that the tiny, barren Iron Isles have the lowest population by far. Geographically, Dorne is about 20 or 30 times larger than the Iron Isles, if not more.

[BitsOfBrains]

Ok, if only a small fraction of fighting age men were sent to war, why then are there NO Umber men left? Why is Lord Manderly taking boys who are 5 feet tall?

Just because something historically happened doesn't mean it translates directly into a fantasy setting of roughly the same time period.

Your argument is that Westerosi realms, if wedged into your medieval european calculations, should be fielding 20k man armies tops. Why then do we see a 100k man army coming from the reach, and that missing 2 of the BIG houses?

[BitsOfBrains]

I would also point out "The Sworn Sword".

Prior to the Blackfyre rebellion Osgrey was a minor lord. He marched to war with his levies and 3 men returned. THESE ARE THE ONLY 3 MEN OF THAT AGE GROUP IN HIS LANDS. Logically that means that all of the men capable of marching marched with him and only the 3 came back otherwise we would see other men of their age group showing up for, "the draft" but we do not. We see only old men, the two surviving old soldiers, and boys who would have been too young to have marched in the rebellion.

We also see that he summons, "all able bodied men between the ages of 15 and 50" not, "a tiny fraction of able bodied men between the ages of 15 and 50".

Thats just how it is in ASOIAF. Medieval Europe might have been different, but they also didn't have dragons and giant walls of ice and such either.

[Ingelheim]

And which are the Seven Kingdoms he is referring to?

Well, Joffrey tells us, when he mocks Sansa with the seven sided chalice representing each of the Seven Kingdoms. It has the following sigils on its seven sides:

Stag

Wolf

Rose

Sun

Lion

Falcon

and Trout.

Joffrey taunts Sansa by saying that now that the Starks are attainted as traitors, and the Greyjoys have captured Winterfell, he should remove the Wolf and replace it with a Kraken.

So clearly, the Iron Isles are not traditionally considered one of the Seven Kingdoms.

Actually, the Riverlands were never a Kingdom. The Iron Isles always were. Joffrey can say whatever he wants; he's a 12 year old, and one of the most stupid and sadistic boys ever born in Westeros.

It is quite obvious Doran is not including the Iron Isles in his comparison. Aside from the fact that logic would also dictate that the tiny, barren Iron Isles have the lowest population by far. Geographically, Dorne is about 20 or 30 times larger than the Iron Isles, if not more.

What? Bangladesh has a population of 150 million people. Russia, of 143.

And you know what? Russia is 110 times larger than Bangladesh.

Sorry, but if we have the head of the Great House of Dorne saying Dorne is the least populated region in Westeros...I trust him.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Ok, if only a small fraction of fighting age men were sent to war, why then are there NO Umber men left? Why is Lord Manderly taking boys who are 5 feet tall?

Just because something historically happened doesn't mean it translates directly into a fantasy setting of roughly the same time period.

Your argument is that Westerosi realms, if wedged into your medieval european calculations, should be fielding 20k man armies tops. Why then do we see a 100k man army coming from the reach, and that missing 2 of the BIG houses?

Your argument does not appear consistent in the above post.

But to answer your question, I am not saying we should only be seeing 20k strong armies in Westeros. I'm saying that if any Westerosi kingdom had an England equivalent population, then 20k would be more or less their limit, because you can usually raise around 1% of your population to arms, and England had 2 million people.

But the larger armies we see in Westeros signify that the Westerosi kingdoms all have far GREATER populations than medieval England had. The North for example likely has almost 3 times medieval England's population. This would make sense, given that it is about 20 times as large as medieval England.

The Reach appears to have almost 6 times England's medieval population.

The fact is, in a medieval level feudal society, you CANNOT raise a majority of the fighting age men to arms. It is simply not possible, else the society would collapse.

As for the Umbers and Karstarks, Alys Karstark is specifically asked by Jon how fares things at Karhold, and she says that at KARHOLD there are no young men left. But Karhold is one stronghold in a Karstark ruled area that is as big as medieval England. An area of rugged wilderness, almost no roads, and no infrastructure.

So while the Karhold and its surrounding lands may be depopulated - because these were the men Lord Karstark could raise to arms in a hurry - that does not mean that the next valley of one of his bannermen, 30 miles away over rugged wilderness, reachable only by goat track, is also depopulated. Remember that Lord Kastark likely rules 300,000 people or thereabouts. His territory is as large as England, after all.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Actually, the Riverlands were never a Kingdom. The Iron Isles always were. Joffrey can say whatever he wants; he's a 12 year old, and one of the most stupid and sadistic boys ever born in Westeros.

What? Bangladesh has a population of 150 million people. Russia, of 143.

And you know what? Russia is 110 times larger than Bangladesh.

Sorry, but if we have the head of the Great House of Dorne saying Dorne is the least populated region in Westeros...I trust him.

The Seven Kingdoms at the time of Aegon's conquest included the kingdom of the River and the Isles. This was a combined Ironborn-Riverland kingdom.

That kingdom no longer exists. Instead, it has split in two, and thus there are now 8 kingdoms.

So if you wish to stick with historical accuracy, as per your above post, then the logical position is that Doran is indeed correct to say that Dorne has a lower population than the combined Iron Isles and Riverlands. This, however, is because the Riverlands are one of the most populated kingdoms in Westeros. Take the Riverlands out of this equation, and you are only left with the tiny Iron Isles.

So which is it then, according to you? Doran specifically referred to the Seven Kingdoms. So one of the eight actual current kingdoms has to be excluded from that comparison. Or else it has to be lumped together with another region.

If we are to take it as a literal reference to the historical Seven Kingdoms, then the only way the Iron Isles can be included, is if it is lumped together with the Riverlands. Which we know to be highly populous, according to a SSM quote from Martin himself.

In which case the Iron Isles on their own is specifically not included in the reference.

[Ingelheim]

The Seven Kingdoms at the time of Aegon's conquest, included the kingdom of the River and the Isles. This was a combined Ironborn-Riverland kindom.

That kingdom no longer exists. Instead, it has split in two, and thus there are now 8 kingdoms.

So if Doran if you wish to stick with historical accuracy, as per your above post, then the logical position is that Doran is indeed correct to say that Dorne has a lower population than the combined Iron Isles and Riverlands. This, however, is because the Riverlands are one of the most populated kingdoms in Westeros. Take the Riverlands out of this equation, and you are only left with the tiny Iron Isles.

So which is it then, according to you? Doran specifically referred to the Seven Kingdoms. So one of the eight actual kingdoms has to be excluded from that comparison.

If we are to take it as a literal reference to the historical Seven Kingdoms, then the only way the Iron Isles can be included, is if it is lumped together with the Riverlands. Which we know to be highly populous, according to a SSM quote from Martin himself.

In which case the Iron Isles on their own is specifically not included in the reference.

The thing is...The Iron Islands were a Kingdom looong before they conquered the Riverlands. Actually, the Riverlands were only a Kingdom before the Andals arrived. For thousands of years, many Kingdoms fought for the Riverlands, as their petty Kings had died.

When you talk of the 7K, you are talking of the Iron Islands. You may or may not be talking of the Kingdom of the Isles and the Riverlands; but the Iron Islands are always included as a Kingdom.

Also, there are 9 regions, you are forgetting the Crownlands.

An length of the land =/= population of the land, thi should be obvious.

[Free Northman Reborn]

The thing is...The Iron Islands were a Kingdom looong before they conquered the Riverlands. Actually, the Riverlands were only a Kingdom before the Andals arrived. For thousands of years, many Kingdoms fought for the Riverlands, as their petty Kings had died.

When you talk of the 7K, you are talking of the Iron Islands. You may or may not be talking of the Kingdom of the Isles and the Riverlands; but the Iron Islands are always included as a Kingdom.

Also, there are 9 regions, you are forgetting the Crownlands.

An length of the land =/= population of the land, thi should be obvious.

So I'm trying to understand your position. Are you saying that Doran excluded the Riverlands from his reference then?

[Archmaester Drew]

@ Game of Thrones -

I posted this on Elio 'Ran' Garcia's youtube video on this that you cite:

"I love your work, but I think you are way off on this. In Canada there are dozens of large cities and only about 34 million people. Westeros has five smallish cities. Westeros is not as big as S. America (as you suggested in a post below), it is about the size, N-S, as Europe (i.e., Norway to Crete), and roughly the same area.

As a bioarchaeologist (including palaeodemography), I think a much more 'realistic' population would be about 14 million:
500 K in the North (including beyond the Wall); 2 M in the Riverlands; 2 M in the Westerlands; 500 K in the Vale; 3 M in the Crownlands; 1.5 M in the Stormlands; 4 M in the Reach; and 500 K in Dorne. :)"

Ran's numbers are not "confirmed" by GRRM.

:)

[Ingelheim]

So I'm trying to understand your position. Are you saying that Doran excluded the Riverlands from his reference then?

Yes. The Riverlands were never a Kingdom. And I doubt Doran would have to explain to his daughter than Dorne is less populated than both the Riverlands and the Iron Islands combined. Anyone knows that.

Also, although Doran said Seven Kingdoms, I don't think he was talking about those ancient Kingdoms. He was just talking of Westeros itself. Dorne is mostly a desert, with nothing similar to a city except Sunspear, which seems to be just some kind of a town.

It's like when you talk of "Europe". You don't have to be talking of the "European Union", but you are talking of all the countries that are part of the EU indeed. The same here. When you talk of the 7K, you talk of the Iron Islands. You may or may not be talking of the Riverlands.

@ Game of Thrones -

I posted this on Elio 'Ran' Garcia's youtube video on this that you cite:

"I love your work, but I think you are way off on this. In Canada there are dozens of large cities and only about 34 million people. Westeros has five smallish cities. Westeros is not as big as S. America (as you suggested in a post below), it is about the size, N-S, as Europe (i.e., Norway to Crete), and roughly the same area.

As a bioarchaeologist (including palaeodemography), I think a much more 'realistic' population would be about 14 million:

500 K in the North (including beyond the Wall); 2 M in the Riverlands; 2 M in the Westerlands; 500 K in the Vale; 3 M in the Crownlands; 1.5 M in the Stormlands; 4 M in the Reach; and 500 K in Dorne. :)"

Ran's numbers are not "confirmed" by GRRM.

:)

How can the North, a territory twice the size of Mexico, have a population of 500K men? That's impossible. Literally.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I posted this on Elio 'Ran' Garcia's youtube video on this that you cite:

"I love your work, but I think you are way off on this. In Canada there are dozens of large cities and only about 34 million people. Westeros has five smallish cities. Westeros is not as big as S. America (as you suggested in a post below), it is about the size, N-S, as Europe (i.e., Norway to Crete), and roughly the same area.

As a bioarchaeologist (including palaeodemography), I think a much more 'realistic' population would be about 14 million:

500 K in the North (including beyond the Wall); 2 M in the Riverlands; 2 M in the Westerlands; 500 K in the Vale; 3 M in the Crownlands; 1.5 M in the Stormlands; 4 M in the Reach; and 500 K in Dorne. :)"

Ran's numbers are not "confirmed" by GRRM.

:)

The Riverlands are about 250k square miles in size. It is described by Martin as rich and populous. 250k square miles means it is 5 times the size of medieval England. Medieval England had 2 million people.

Why would you give the Riverlands the same population as a real life medieval kingdom that was only one fifth its size?

Let's take the North. It is 20 times the size of England. Even its northernmost extreme - the Gift - is described as good farmland.

How could you possibly give it a population similar to that of Medieval Scotland, which is only one thirtieth the size of the North, by the way, and which is located at the same latitude?

[SeanF]

@ Game of Thrones -

I posted this on Elio 'Ran' Garcia's youtube video on this that you cite:

"I love your work, but I think you are way off on this. In Canada there are dozens of large cities and only about 34 million people. Westeros has five smallish cities. Westeros is not as big as S. America (as you suggested in a post below), it is about the size, N-S, as Europe (i.e., Norway to Crete), and roughly the same area.

As a bioarchaeologist (including palaeodemography), I think a much more 'realistic' population would be about 14 million:

500 K in the North (including beyond the Wall); 2 M in the Riverlands; 2 M in the Westerlands; 500 K in the

Vale; 3 M in the Crownlands; 1.5 M in the Stormlands; 4 M in the Reach; and 500 K in Dorne. :)"

Ran's numbers are not "confirmed" by GRRM.

:)

Those numbers are far too small. The north could never have put together an expeditionary force of 18,000, within weeks, out of 500,000 people. Dorne couldn't field an army of 25,000, out of so few.

[Arakan]

@ Game of Thrones -

I posted this on Elio 'Ran' Garcia's youtube video on this that you cite:

"I love your work, but I think you are way off on this. In Canada there are dozens of large cities and only about 34 million people. Westeros has five smallish cities. Westeros is not as big as S. America (as you suggested in a post below), it is about the size, N-S, as Europe (i.e., Norway to Crete), and roughly the same area.

As a bioarchaeologist (including palaeodemography), I think a much more 'realistic' population would be about 14 million:

500 K in the North (including beyond the Wall); 2 M in the Riverlands; 2 M in the Westerlands; 500 K in the Vale; 3 M in the Crownlands; 1.5 M in the Stormlands; 4 M in the Reach; and 500 K in Dorne. :)"

Ran's numbers are not "confirmed" by GRRM.

:)

I wouldnt draw any conclusions based on the number of large cities in the 7K. There are (presumably) quite a lot of towns in the range of 2000-10000 inhabitants. Just for the sake of comparison: a big city in the heartlands of the HRE (excl Northern Italy and the Low Lands) had ~20,000 inhabitants. Only very few like Cologne or Prague were bigger.

What is your reasoning behind the 14m?

[Archmaester Drew]

@ Free Northman Reborn -

Alright, I was mistaken about the size of Westeros -- but I still think 40 million is too high!

@ SeanF -

See above.

;)

[Free Northman Reborn]

Yes. The Riverlands were never a Kingdom. And I doubt Doran would have to explain to his daughter than Dorne is less populated than both the Riverlands and the Iron Islands combined. Anyone knows that.

Also, although Doran said Seven Kingdoms, I don't think he was talking about those ancient Kingdoms. He was just talking of Westeros itself. Dorne is mostly a desert, with nothing similar to a city except Sunspear, which seems to be just some kind of a town.

It's like when you talk of "Europe". You don't have to be talking of the "European Union", but you are talking of all the countries that are part of the EU indeed. The same here. When you talk of the 7K, you talk of the Iron Islands. You may or may not be talking of the Riverlands.

Doran did not say that Dorne had the lowest population IN the Seven Kingdoms. He said it had the lowest population OF the Seven Kingdoms. He was referring to seven specific regions. He had to, else what was he comparing Dorne to? These had to be clearly demarcated regions, else his statement held no substance.

Secondly, everyone does NOT know that Dorne is less populous than the Iron Isles and the Riverlands combined. Arriane is under the impression that Dorne is be able to raise 50k spears. No single kingdom has EVER raised that number in recorded history. Not even the combined kingdom of the Rivers and the Isles. The largest army ever raised in Westeros was the allied army on the Field of Fire, which numbered 55k men, and came from the Reach and the West.

So that is the notion Doran is disabusing Arriane of.

The Riverlands is one of the most populous regions in Westeros. There is no way that they will be left out of a comparison revolving around Dorne being the least populous of the kingdoms.

Furthermore, the chalice that Joffrey shows to Sansa has nothing to do with Joffrey's own "douchebag-ness" or lack thereof. That was a historic item, not one crafted at his orders. It existed long before he became king. And it clearly affirms what is generally considered to be the "Seven Kingdoms" at least amongst the nobility of Westeros, of which Doran is a member.

And the fact remains, it includes the Riverlands and not the Iron Isles.

The logical conclusion is that the historic Seven Kingdoms included the combined Kingdom of River and Isles. The Riverlands would obviously have made up the vast bulk of the combined population of this kingdom, and when it split apart, the Iron Isles would have been left with only a small percentage of its former population.

And the Riverlands clearly assumed the place of the former kingdom of River and Isles in casual references to the "Seven Kingdoms" from that point onward.

[Archmaester Drew]

I wouldnt draw any conclusions based on the number of large cities in the 7K. There are (presumably) quite a lot of towns in the range of 2000-10000 inhabitants. Just for the sake of comparison: a big city in the heartlands of the HRE (excl Northern Italy and the Low Lands) had ~20,000 inhabitants. Only very few like Cologne or Prague were bigger.

What is your reasoning behind the 14m?

I thought Westeros was smaller (the map I have is wrong).

However, the carrying capacity of the land may be large but there does not seem to be a lot of people inhabiting it in the books -- particularly the North.

:)

[Ingelheim]

Doran did not say that Dorne had the lowest population IN the Seven Kingdoms. He said it had the lowest population OF the Seven Kingdoms. He was referring to seven specific regions. He had to, else what was he comparing Dorne to? These had to be clearly demarcated regions, else his statement held no substance.

Secondly, everyone does NOT know that Dorne is less populous than the Iron Isles and the Riverlands combined. Arriane is under the impression that Dorne is be able to raise 50k spears. No single kingdom has EVER raised that number in recorded history. Not even the combined kingdom of the Rivers and the Isles. The largest army ever raised in Westeros was the allied army on the Field of Fire, which numbered 55k men, and came from the Reach and the West.

So that is the notion Doran is disabusing Arriane of.

The Riverlands is one of the most populous regions in Westeros. There is no way that they will be left out of a comparison revolving around Dorne being the least populous of the kingdoms.

Furthermore, the chalice that Joffrey shows to Sansa has nothing to do with Joffrey's own "douchebag-ness" or lack thereof. That was a historic item, not one crafted at his orders. It existed long before he became king. And it clearly affirms what is generally considered to be the "Seven Kingdoms" at least amongst the nobility of Westeros, of which Doran is a member.

And the fact remains, it includes the Riverlands and not the Iron Isles.

The logical conclusion is that the historic Seven Kingdoms included the combined Kingdom of River and Isles. The Riverlands would obviously have made up the vast bulk of the combined population of this kingdom, and when it split apart, the Iron Isles would have been left with only a small percentage of its former population.

And the Riverlands clearly assumed the place of the former kingdom of River and Isles in casual references to the "Seven Kingdoms" from that point onward.

When and where did Arianne say that she believed Dorne could raise 50K spears? That's crazy, and I don't remember her saying that. I do remember Quentyn saying it, but I think it was pretty clear he knew he was bluffing. If you could give me the quote, you'd do me a favor. Right now I don't have the books.

And well, Renly had 100K in the WOT5K. That's the largest army ever raised in Westeros, not the Field of Fire one.

So, now I'm trying to understand your point...you are saying people don't consider the Iron Islands a Kingdom, but they do that with the Riverlands?

If you want my honest opinion... Dorne is the one that shouldn't be considered one of the 7K.

[Arakan]

However, the carrying capacity of the land may be large but there does not seem to be a lot of people inhabiting it in the books -- particularly the North.

:)

Allright :).

Well wrt the North, indeed large regions seem to be almost empty of any human settlement. Which is due to a harsher climate north of Winterfell in general but of course mainly due to the effects of the magical winter.

That said, any reasonable population estimation for the North are very very difficult. The effects of winter periods lasting 12 months or longer cannot be underestimated. I admit that I have problems to imagine the North with anything more than 3-4 million in total.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I thought Westeros was smaller (the map I have is wrong).

However, the carrying capacity of the land may be large but there does not seem to be a lot of people inhabiting it in the books -- particularly the North.

:)

Interesting then that the North has a city easily as large or larger than Medieval London, despite being a far less urbanized population than medieval England was.

Meaning that it has a far more dispersed and rural based population, and yet STILL has a city as large as London was.

They have also raised armies larger than anything England managed to raise in the Middle Ages, despite having to expend far more resources and effort to gather those troops over vast, rugged distances.

Clearly the North has a much bigger population than medieval England had.