Let's be real: how much power can Cersei possibly get back? [TWoW SPOILERS]

[Faint]

Doran's just going to giver her back, no strings attached? The way I see it, if he's going to back Aegon, he needs Myrcella and Tommen dead.

I would not conflate Doran's thinking with that of the Sand Snakes. I think he, as well as his daughter now that she has learned her lesson, will be very cautious. The Sand Snakes, on the other hand and quite predictably, will be impulsive and want to back Aegon immediately.

The way I see things playing out is that they will force Doran's hand. Tyene will conspire with the High Sparrow to have Margaery convicted, causing conflict between the Iron Throne and the Faith. Nymeria, meanwhile, will have Tommen assassinated. Doran will not have a choice at that point.

It also would not surprise me if Elia Sand sneaks into Aegon's bed as part of this whole thing scenario.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

There is a reason no one in the Westerlands protests or lifts a finger in response to Cersei's arrest or Mace's march on KL. If you are correct, we would see Daven march on KL to counter Mace, and after Cersei was arrested, an outpouring of rage from the Westerlands akin to what we saw from Dorne when Oberyn died. We didn't even see that when Tywin died.

They didn't care at all when Cersei herself was arrested by the HS and booted off the SC.

We haven't had a scene in the westerlands ever, much less since any of the events you mention took place. And yet you're certain that "no one" there protests or gave a shit what happened in King's Landing. Why?

[Antler's Fury]

We haven't had a scene in the westerlands ever, much less since any of the events you mention took place. And yet you're certain that "no one" there protests or gave a shit what happened in King's Landing. Why?

Because if the Westerlands were anything other than indifferent, Cersei, Kevan, or someone else would have mentioned how pissed off they were.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

That strikes me as a slender reed to base your conclusions on, particularly since Kevan would have had much bigger things to worry about. Often we haven't figured out what the general mood in an area is until we've seen a POV there (as with the Vale in A Game of Thrones, for example).

[Antler's Fury]

That strikes me as a slender reed to base your conclusions on, particularly since Kevan would have had much bigger things to worry about. Often we haven't figured out what the general mood in an area is until we've seen a POV there (as with the Vale in A Game of Thrones, for example).

So then how do you know that anyone there cares enough about Tywin's legacy to help Cersei? Everything we've seen about him suggests that people were afraid of him. Now he can no longer intimidate them into obedience, so why would anyone risk their necks for his family?

[Red Tiger]

I agree with Antler's fury and I believe the situation in the West will be the absolute opposite of the one up North. I see a ton of Westerland lords ganging up on the Lannisters now that they are relatively vulnerable.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

So then how do you know that anyone there cares enough about Tywin's legacy to help Cersei? Everything we've seen about him suggests that people were afraid of him. Now he can no longer intimidate them into obedience, so why would anyone risk their necks for his family?

Well, in part based on Kevan's speech to Tyrion about how Tywin turned House Lannister into a force to be respected; and Genna's conversation about Tywin with Jaime expresses much the same sentiment. Obviously that doesn't mean that people in King's Landing love him, because of course he brutally sacked the city. But most of the nobles in the westerlands would have benefited from his rule, and stood to gain higher offices, additional lands, command in battle, and so forth. Lannister influence would have been good for them, and Lannister weakness holds them back. It seems perfectly reasonable to me that your average western noble, an Addam Marband or a Flement Brax, would have identified themselves with Tywin's cause. They might not have loved him personally, but they would have appreciated him serving as lord. In practical terms, Lannisters being frozen out of King's Landing means western nobles being frozen out along with them.

Also, in part because it gives Cersei a role to play in the plot of TWOW, and otherwise I don't see how that happens. I'm sure she's finished in King's Landing.

[Antler's Fury]

Well, in part based on Kevan's speech to Tyrion about how Tywin turned House Lannister into a force to be respected; and Genna's conversation about Tywin with Jaime expresses much the same sentiment.

Both of them also point out that Cersei has ruined everything Tywin set up there. Genna knows even though she isn't in KL. Heck, even Godric Borrell, who lives on an isolated rock, knows how badly Cersei is screwing things up. So if they know, so do the lords of the Westerlands, who therefore have little reason to respect Cersei.

But most of the nobles in the westerlands would have benefited from his rule, and stood to gain higher offices, additional lands, command in battle, and so forth.

They could gain all of that at the expense of the Lannisters as well.

Lannister influence would have been good for them, and Lannister weakness holds them back. It seems perfectly reasonable to me that your average western noble, an Addam Marband or a Flement Brax, would have identified themselves with Tywin's cause.

Tywin's cause involved allying with the Tyrells, which suggests that the lords of the Westerlands have little interest in breaking that alliance for no good reason.

They might not have loved him personally, but they would have appreciated him serving as lord. In practical terms, Lannisters being frozen out of King's Landing means western nobles being frozen out along with them.

Not at all. Harys Swyft is from the Westerlands, and he's still Master of Coin.

Also, in part because it gives Cersei a role to play in the plot of TWOW, and otherwise I don't see how that happens. I'm sure she's finished in King's Landing.

Though I agree that Cersei will have a role, that doesn't necessarily mean that there will be open war between Lannister and Tyrell forces for without some casus belli, and Cersei doesn't really have one.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Not at all. Harys Swyft is from the Westerlands, and he's still Master of Coin.

You think Harys Swyft is going to stay as Master of Coin for long? I don't. Mace Tyrell has a very clear pattern, and he already has a handpicked candidate in mind.

They could gain all of that at the expense of the Lannisters as well.

Tywin's cause involved allying with the Tyrells, which suggests that the lords of the Westerlands have little interest in breaking that alliance for no good reason.

These arguments are contradictory. Are the western lords going to do nothing because they have no respect for Tywin's legacy, or way too much respect to ever deviate from his course of action?

Though I agree that Cersei will have a role, that doesn't necessarily mean that there will be open war between Lannister and Tyrell forces for without some casus belli, and Cersei doesn't really have one.

She has what appears to be solid evidence that Rugen was paid off by Olenna Tyrell to let Tyrion escape and assassinate Tywin. And many people are going to wonder how it was that Kevan and Pycelle came to die while surrounded by Tyrell swords. That sounds like a causus belli to me.

[Bironic]

You think Harys Swyft is going to stay as Master of Coin for long? I don't. Mace Tyrell has a very clear pattern, and he already has a handpicked candidate in mind.

She has what appears to be solid evidence that Rugen was paid off by Olenna Tyrell to let Tyrion escape and assassinate Tywin. And many people are going to wonder how it was that Kevan and Pycelle came to die while surrounded by Tyrell swords. That sounds like a causus belli to me.

I agree with HtH that if the Tyrells take control of the IT Harys Swyft will be soon replaced by Garth Tyrell, while the Maesters will appoint Gormon Tyrell as the next GM.

And Cersei is quite crazy, even if she has no casus belli, she makes one up. I mean she had nothing in Hand against Margaery and she tried to remove her nonetheless.

[Antler's Fury]

You think Harys Swyft is going to stay as Master of Coin for long? I don't. Mace Tyrell has a very clear pattern, and he already has a handpicked candidate in mind.

The thing is, even when the Lannisters were in power, the only man from the Westerlands who was not a Lannister in a position of power was Swyft. So it's not like the Westerlands lords had any particular sway at court even when the Lannisters were in power, that they would want to protect against a Tyrell takeover.

These arguments are contradictory. Are the western lords going to do nothing because they have no respect for Tywin's legacy, or way too much respect to ever deviate from his course of action?

If they respect Tywin's legacy at all, they won't try to undermine the alliance with the Tyrells that Tywin built based on flimsy evidence from Cersei. If they don't respect Tywin's legacy at all, then they definitely won't interfere with a Tyrell takeover. If anything, they will ingratiate themselves with the new bosses. Cersei's irrational policies are not the legacy Tywin wanted to leave, and the whole continent knows it. Genna and Kevan knew enough about Cersei's crazy to keep themselves at arm's length from it, and if they did, then so do the lords of the Westerlands.

She has what appears to be solid evidence that Rugen was paid off by Olenna Tyrell to let Tyrion escape and assassinate Tywin. And many people are going to wonder how it was that Kevan and Pycelle came to die while surrounded by Tyrell swords. That sounds like a causus belli to me.

You're underestimating the Westerlands lords' ability to think for themselves instead of blindly following the Lannisters. It was one thing when Tyrion was kidnapped, or when the Reynes rose up in rebellion. In those cases, the strength of the West was clearly called into question, and by a known adversary, so the lords of the Westerlands retaliated at the behest of Tywin, a proven battle commander who they respected and feared. This situation, on the other hand, is less clear. Unlike Tywin, Cersei is clearly crazy. After her walk of shame, no one is afraid of her anymore, and her government was notoriously incompetent, so I don't see why any Westerlands lord would want to restore it, especially seeing as when she was in power, not a single Westerlands lord was in a position of prominence at court save for Harys Swyft.

Furthermore, no one is sure who assassinated Kevan, but the realm has more of a reason to believe it was Cersei than the Tyrells. After all, the Tyrells benefited under Kevan's regency, while Cersei lost everything. Their spat was clearly public knowledge, as even Daven Lannister knows of it. Even Jaime thinks that Cersei could have Kevan killed. Furthermore, the very fact that Tyrion assassinated Tywin after Tywin stripped Tyrion of his power as acting Hand only strengthens the idea that the Lannister children resent being cut down to size by their elders and are willing kill them to retake power. Against this, a coin of dubious provenance is rather weak evidence.

[Harry the Hair]

Furthermore, no one is sure who assassinated Kevan, but the realm has more of a reason to believe it was Cersei than the Tyrells.

That makes zero sense; Cersei practically begged Kevan to become Hand of the King. Why would she kill someone that she appointed?

[Lord of the Vale]

She will most likeil regain the regency, but she will be dependent on the Tyrells to do anything

[Antler's Fury]

That makes zero sense; Cersei practically begged Kevan to become Hand of the King. Why would she kill someone that she appointed?

Because she didn't appoint him. He flat out refused, insulted her parenting skills, and basically told her he knew about the incest. Although the exact details of their falling out are probably unknown to anyone else but Jaime, what does seem to be well known is that Kevan and Cersei were not on good terms. Furthermore, under Kevan, Cersei lost the Regency, and was marched through the streets naked with his tacit approval, which gives her more motivation to want him dead than the Tyrells. Incidentally, she also publicly expressed her disapproval with Pycelle more than once thanks to his supposed incompetence and poor advice. The whole realm knows Cersei is nuts and incompetent. People obeyed her when they were afraid of retribution, so now that she is at other people's mercy, they have no reason to risk their necks for her. Cersei never had much credibility to begin with, and has lost what little she has thanks to her poor governance and public shaming.

[Harry the Hair]

Because she didn't appoint him. He flat out refused, insulted her parenting skills, and basically told her he knew about the incest. Although the exact details of their falling out are probably unknown to anyone else but Jaime, what does seem to be well known is that Kevan and Cersei were not on good terms. Furthermore, under Kevan, Cersei lost the Regency, and was marched through the streets naked with his tacit approval, which gives her more motivation to want him dead than the Tyrells. Incidentally, she also publicly expressed her disapproval with Pycelle more than once. The whole realm knows Cersei is nuts and incompetent. People obeyed her when they were afraid of retribution, so now that she is at other people's mercy, they have no reason to risk their necks for her. Cersei never had much credibility to begin with, and has lost what little she has thanks to her poor governance and public shaming.

Insulting her parenting skills isn't a sufficient motive for her to want him dead. Kevan was prepared to leave KL since Cersei refused to meet his terms, she had no reason to kill him since he was willing to step out. There is no indication of her blaming Kevan for her walk of shame. If anything he was viewed as her only ally. In fact she wanted to see him during her confinement and he carried out her orders; appointing Ser Robert Strong to the Kings Guard.

Once Kevan died the Tyrells won the power monopoly here, not Cersei.

[Antler's Fury]

Insulting her parenting skills isn't a sufficient motive for her to want him dead.

Yes it is. After that conversation, Cersei becomes convinced that Kevan is out to get her and appoints Harys Swyft as Hand to serve as a glorified hostage for Kevan's good behavior.

Kevan was prepared to leave KL since Cersei refused to meet his terms, she had no reason to kill him since he was willing to step out.

Then he came back, took the Regency from her, refused to free her from the sept, insisted that she participate in the walk of shame, and finished removing her cronies from the Small Council, appointing the hated Tyrells in their place.

There is no indication of her blaming Kevan for her walk of shame. If anything he was viewed as her only ally. In fact she wanted to see him during her confinement and he carried out her orders; appointing Ser Robert Strong to the Kings Guard.

True, but the only reason Strong was considered necessary was because of the trial Kevan refused to prevent, and the only reason he had the authority to appoint a new KG, was because he took the Regency from her.

Once Kevan died the Tyrells won the power monopoly here, not Cersei.

It is thanks to Kevan that they had power in the capital to begin with.

[Harry the Hair]

Yes it is. After that conversation, Cersei becomes convinced that Kevan is out to get her and appoints Harys Swyft as Hand to serve as a glorified hostage for Kevan's good behavior.

Then he came back, took the Regency from her, refused to free her from the sept, insisted that she participate in the walk of shame, and finished removing her cronies from the Small Council, appointing the hated Tyrells in their place.

True, but the only reason Strong was considered necessary was because of the trial Kevan refused to prevent, and the only reason he had the authority to appoint a new KG, was because he took the Regency from her.

1) I don't understand your logic. "The guy I wanted to be hand said something I didn't like so I changed my mind about promoting him, he was cool with that and decided he wanted to leave KL, lets have him killed?" Kevan displeased her, she appointed someone else, where is the motive to kill him here? Tywin also questioned her parenting skills, does that mean that Cersei killed him???

2) He came back because he was asked to, and he's not the one to take her regency from her. While awaiting trial the faith commanded her to appoint a new regent until she is acquitted.

3) Now that the Tyrells got in to power they no longer need him and may consider him a liability. They have no use for him and in order to expand their influence they need to get rid of Kevan.

4) How is he supposed to prevent her trial? Even Mace is allowing the trial to happen even though he has an armed host at his service. They are trying to keep stability in the realm and a blood bath followed by new riots is definitely not something that Cersei would benefit from.

It is thanks to Kevan that they had power in the capital to begin with.

And it's thanks to Jon Arryn that LF got any power what so ever, that still didn't stop him from getting Lysa to kill him. Same logic could be applied here.

[Antler's Fury]

1) I don't understand your logic. "The guy I wanted to be hand said something I didn't like so I changed my mind about promoting him, he was cool with that and decided he wanted to leave KL, lets have him killed?" Kevan displeased her, she appointed someone else, where is the motive to kill him here? Tywin also questioned her parenting skills, does that mean that Cersei killed him???

She was clearly afraid that Kevan was disloyal, not only because he refused the Handship and insulted her parenting skills, but because he knew about the incest. That was why she had Harys Swfyt as Hand, so that he could serve as a hostage for Kevan's good behavior. If she was willing to kill Kevan's father in law for Kevan's supposed disloyalty, then it's not too much of a stretch to think she killed Kevan for removing her and her cronies from office in favor of the hated Tyrells, and allowing her to be publicly humiliated.

2) He came back because he was asked to, and he's not the one to take her regency from her. While awaiting trial the faith commanded her to appoint a new regent until she is acquitted.

When did they do that? Do you have a reference? I don't recall the Faith ever interfering in governance.

3) Now that the Tyrells got in to power they no longer need him and may consider him a liability. They have no use for him and in order to expand their influence they need to get rid of Kevan.

Cersei can't get any influence back at all unless Kevan is dead.

4) How is he supposed to prevent her trial? Even Mace is allowing the trial to happen even though he has an armed host at his service.

He could storm the sept with the help of Tyrell men and free the queens, killing the High Sparrow, the septas, and anyone else who gets in his way. That is what Cersei wants. He refuses because he sees that it would be terrible for PR, but she doesn't care about the consequences of a religious massacre.

They are trying to keep stability in the realm and a blood bath followed by new riots is definitely not something that Cersei would benefit from.

Cersei's irrational behavior has caused bloodbaths and riots before, so it's not exactly news that she would cause even more in an attempt to regain power.

And it's thanks to Jon Arryn that LF got any power what so ever, that still didn't stop him from getting Lysa to kill him. Same logic could be applied here.

The Tyrells certainly do have motivation, I'm not denying that. I'm saying that Kevan is more useful to the Tyrells than he is to Cersei, because while Kevan is at least willing to allow the Tyrells some power, and is increasingly unable to keep them from expanding that which he has allowed them to accrue, Kevan is unwilling to let Cersei have any say in anything whatsoever.

[Harry the Hair]

She was clearly afraid that Kevan was disloyal, not only because he refused the Handship and insulted her parenting skills, but because he knew about the incest. That was why she had Harys Swfyt as Hand, so that he could serve as a hostage for Kevan's good behavior. If she was willing to kill Kevan's father in law for Kevan's supposed disloyalty, then it's not too much of a stretch to think she killed Kevan for removing her and her cronies from office in favor of the hated Tyrells, and allowing her to be publicly humiliated.

All she knew is that she offended him and he was not likely to petition the faith on her behalf. No where is there a thought listed that Kevan intends to do her any ill.

When did they do that? Do you have a reference? I don't recall the Faith ever interfering in governance.

Qyburn tells Cersei that:

"the realm is being ruled by Ser Harys Swyft and Grand Maester Pycelle. They have dispatched a raven to Casterly Rock, inviting your Uncle to court and assume the regency. If he means to accept, he had best make haste. Mace Tyrell has abandoned his siege of Storm's End and is marching back to the city with his army, and Randyll Tarly is reported on his way down from Maidenpool as well."

A regent had to be appointed and Kevan beat Mace to it. Which would give mace a strong motive to want Kevan dead.

"It would not be fitting to allow you near the king until you have been cleansed of all your wickedness."

She's not even allowed to see her son, let alone be his regent.

Cersei's irrational behavior has caused bloodbaths and riots before, so it's not exactly news that she would cause even more in an attempt to regain power.

How exactly did she regain power during King's Landing Riot? If anything she became even more hated by the smallfolk? In any case Kevan says "I do not have the men, the best part of our forces were at Riverrun with your brother. I had no time to raise a new host."

The Tyrells certainly do have motivation, I'm not denying that. I'm saying that Kevan is more useful to the Tyrells than he is to Cersei, because while Kevan is at least willing to allow the Tyrells some power, and is increasingly unable to keep them from expanding that which he has allowed them to accrue, Kevan is unwilling to let Cersei have any say in anything whatsoever.

How is he useful to the Tyrells? They've already gotten everything they could out of him, in order to gain even more power (a chance at Tommen's regency) they need to remove Kevan. That is certainly a stronger motive than Cersei being angry over his dislike of her parenting tactics.

[Antler's Fury]

All she knew is that she offended him and he was not likely to petition the faith on her behalf. No where is there a thought listed that Kevan intends to do her any ill.

Well of course he doesn't. But she thinks he does. When Kevan suggests naming Tarly or Rowan as Hand, she suspects that he might be taking Tyrell gold to betray the Lannisters, and thus makes Harys Swyft a glorified hostage. You keep ignoring this.

A regent had to be appointed and Kevan beat Mace to it. Which would give mace a strong motive to want Kevan dead.

The regent has to be appointed by the Small Council, whose two remaining members supported Kevan, not Mace. If Mace intended to use his army to make himself regent, he would have done it, whether Kevan showed up or not. He has more men. Kevan remained Regent by his sufferance, a fig leaf to legitimize a Tyrell takeover.

She's not even allowed to see her son, let alone be his regent.

The High Sparrow does not bar Cersei from being regent, he just doesn't want to let her out of the sept until she has been spiritually cleansed through her walk of shame. He is concerned her moral corruption may taint Tommen spiritually, but he expresses no concern about any political role she may hold.

How exactly did she regain power during King's Landing Riot?

My point is that you can't say Cersei wouldn't do something stupid, like kill Kevan, on the grounds that it may cause rioting and instability, because she has done stupid things before that caused rioting and instability.

In any case Kevan says "I do not have the men, the best part of our forces were at Riverrun with your brother. I had no time to raise a new host."

People will still have reason to think that Kevan could have broken Cersei out, but didn't, which is why she had him killed.

How is he useful to the Tyrells? They've already gotten everything they could out of him, in order to gain even more power (a chance at Tommen's regency) they need to remove Kevan.

As the King's grand uncle, he provides legitimacy to their essentially forcing their way into the SC at swordpoint. As far as anyone else is concerned, if Mace was willing to kill Kevan to take the Regency, he would have just crushed Kevan's smaller force and taken the Regency for himself. Cersei, on the other hand, could not do that, so she had to resort to assassination.

That is certainly a stronger motive than Cersei being angry over his dislike of her parenting tactics.

It's not just that. There's also the fact that he took the Regency from her, removed her cronies from the council and replaced them with Reach men, and allowed her to be publicly humiliated. In order for Cersei to get any power back in the capital, Kevan must die. In contrast, Mace is already Hand, and has an army outside the capital which makes it difficult for Kevan to refuse anything he asks. He set up Kevan to be his sock puppet, so he has little reason to remove Kevan so soon after allowing him to be Regent.