Complete rundown of army sizes and losses throughout the books (long)

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

No it doesn't. Near twice our strength means near twice our strength, i.e. nearly 2x 11,000.

I suggested men from the other camps got through to Tywin. We know the south camp retreated with Prester yes.

That's the problem though, it does. Cat wasn't about to say "Tywin has 1.73 times our number". Edmure has 11,000 men, which easily rounds down to 10,000, Tywin invaded the Riverlands with ~20,000, Cat would probably assume he has taken losses, but not enough to make it not round up to 20,000.

Thus by rounding two numbers very reasonably Catelyn has shown that one is almost twice of another, even though it is actually out by more than 25%. The reason: neither Catelyn, nor GRRM is a mathematician, they don't consider that just under 20,000 is actually quite a bit less in terms of percentage than 2*11,000, after all it wasn't as if Catelyn was about to pull out her iphone to calculate what she was going to say, and I doubt GRRM did the calculation to check that it was within a reasonable margin of error.

Tywin picking up a few stragglers from Jaime's host is reasonable, but it is never mentioned in the text, and remember, the men in the east camp all went west, the men in the north and south camps were separated from Tywin by the rivers and a lot of rivermen, if you were a survivor from one of those camps hoping to serve your lord again, would you go east through enemy territory in the hopes that Tywin isn't somewhere else by the time you get there, or would you go west, to your homeland, which won't move, and is much closer?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Tywin picking up a few stragglers from Jaime's host is reasonable, but it is never mentioned in the text,

Why would it? Tywin is not a POV, neither is Edmure. At this point most of our information comes from Cat who is under house arrest.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Why would it? Tywin is not a POV, neither is Edmure. At this point most of our information comes from Cat who is under house arrest.

Cat wasn't under house arrest until after Tywin left the riverlands. We get a report from the Blackfish at the beginning of ACOK regarding what Tywin is doing at Harrenhal, it doesn't include recruiting new men. Likewise Tyrion never really considers the posibility of Tywin gathering stragglers or survivors when going through Tywin's hypothetical plan at Harrenhal. Arya never mentions any new recruits (other than Brave Companions) or other guys joining Tywin's ranks. It certainly doesn't seem to be a big thing on Robb's/Brynden's/Edmure's mind that Tywin might be recruiting more men.

I also have to wonder why you have picked out 19 words from a rather short paragraph for your quote, when the subsequent sentences go into much more detail as to why Tywin probably didn't get a considerable number of men from Jaime's host.

[Chaircat Meow]

That's the problem though, it does. Cat wasn't about to say "Tywin has 1.73 times our number". Edmure has 11,000 men, which easily rounds down to 10,000, Tywin invaded the Riverlands with ~20,000, Cat would probably assume he has taken losses, but not enough to make it not round up to 20,000.

Thus by rounding two numbers very reasonably Catelyn has shown that one is almost twice of another, even though it is actually out by more than 25%. The reason: neither Catelyn, nor GRRM is a mathematician, they don't consider that just under 20,000 is actually quite a bit less in terms of percentage than 2*11,000, after all it wasn't as if Catelyn was about to pull out her iphone to calculate what she was going to say, and I doubt GRRM did the calculation to check that it was within a reasonable margin of error.

Tywin picking up a few stragglers from Jaime's host is reasonable, but it is never mentioned in the text, and remember, the men in the east camp all went west, the men in the north and south camps were separated from Tywin by the rivers and a lot of rivermen, if you were a survivor from one of those camps hoping to serve your lord again, would you go east through enemy territory in the hopes that Tywin isn't somewhere else by the time you get there, or would you go west, to your homeland, which won't move, and is much closer?

17,000 is nowhere near nearly double Edmure's strength (it is barely 50% greater, as opposed to 100%), which would be 22,000. 20,000 is close, so Cat is to be understood to have said Tywin has about 20,000 men. Edmure does not question this, even though he's in a position to know and wants to defend his plan. It is all very simple.

I do not see the point in knitpicking as to whether men would go east or not. They could have done and it explains Tywin's numbers.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I also have to wonder why you have picked out 19 words from a rather short paragraph for your quote, when the subsequent sentences go into much more detail as to why Tywin probably didn't get a considerable number of men from Jaime's host.

Because it is pointless replying to every point. I'm not looking for an argument, just suggesting that regarding Tywin and his dealings in the Riverlands there is an awful lot of information we are not privy to.

Look at the start of the war. Jaime is in the battle of Golden Tooth and then the siege of Riverrun allowing Tywin to march through the Riverlands taking Raventree Hall, Harenhall and possibly others yet we never hear how many casualties the Riverlords takes in these battles. Similar to Clegane burning down the Piper and Darry settlements. There is a lot we are never told about. With Tywin, nor anyone in his camp, having a POV chapter we really dont have much idea what is going on with his army.

Jaime had an army of around 13k. 4k were able to escape West, it is not inconceivable that another few thousand could escape East and later find Tywin. That would explain the consistency in the size of his army throughout the War in the Riverlands.

[Frey Pie]

Jaime had an army of around 13k. 4k were able to escape West, it is not inconceivable that another few thousand could escape East and later find Tywin. That would explain the consistency in the size of his army throughout the War in the Riverlands.

I think it would be mentioned if any more then 1k retreated or got away. Prester is mentioned as getting away with 4k several times. If some thousands had escaped the other way then it would have to be mentioned, or it really is bad writing. A couple of hundred is possible but not a few thousand

In any case i would add these few hundred onto tywins men, and give him 18.5 K at the Fords (not a million miles away from double Edmure's numbers). I think at least one thousand die during this battle and possibly a fair number more. Either way I think overall at the Blackwater Tywin brings in and around 17k, maybe a few hundred more

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I think it would be mentioned if any more then 1k retreated or got away. Prester is mentioned as getting away with 4k several times. If some thousands had escaped the other way then it would have to be mentioned, or it really is bad writing. A couple of hundred is possible but not a few thousand

The numbers are only mentioned once, in the immediate aftermath of the battle in Tyrions final chapter of AGOT and the final chapter we see inside Tywins warcamp in the Riverlands.

Forley Prester is notable as he lead his army away without fighting so received no casualties apart from the freeriders in his camp changing sides. The other two camps were ambushed and took significant casualties but considering the battle was at night I cant see 10,000 Westerland soldiers being killed by Robbs 6,000 and the Riverrun garrison.

Look at Ramsay beating Rodriks 2,000. We are told about no survivors until ADWD when Satnnis starts including them in his growing army.

[Nihlus]

Tyrion in ASOS, he says that Walder Frey's son's were heading down to Riverrun with 2,000 men.

We know that Daven+ Prester were less than 2,000 between them, but probably not much less, when Jaime arrived there was probably most westermen than Freys present.

There were also other non-Frey Riverlanders in the south camp, those that had bent the knee after the RW, however these men aren't really actively involved in the siege in any way.

As for the 20:1 figure, it's vague enough that we can excuse some deviations, If Jaime had closer to 5,000 Freys and Westermen I doubt he would say "twenty-five times your number".

At what time, and were the men actually specified at any point as Freys?

The Lannister camp was supposed to be half as large as the Frey one.

Were they? Jaime intended them to make up the first wave of his attackers, so it would seem illogical to just consider them uninvolved.

I don't see why Jaime would have any trouble just saying "twenty-five times your number", especially when trying to intimidate the Blackfish. Perhaps there are only like 1,000 actual Frey soldiers in the siege, and the other 1,000 were various other Riverlands soldiers that bent the knee, the ones Jaime was planning to have make up the first wave? That'd explain the seeming discrepancy between 2,000 Frey soldiers laying siege to Riverrun at the same time that 2,000 Frey soldiers (including 500+ cavalry) march north with Roose and his 4,000 surviving North soldiers, and a few hundred other Frey soldiers garrison the Twins.

Anyway... Davos said Stannis had 1,500 soldiers on Dragonstone, more than half of them Florents. IIRC, this is after Stannis tells him he only has 1,300 men on Dragonstone. This number is repeated in ADWD, chapter 19, when Davos says that Stannis brought 1,500 soldiers to the Wall, even though, again, he heard Stannis claim to only have 1,300 on Dragonstone earlier (which would mean he only brought ~1,200 to the Wall). It would seem that, either Stannis's earlier number was retconned, or he found an extra 300 men (200 for marching North with the other 1,300, 100 for Dragonstone) between making that statement and going to the Wall. After arriving at the Wall, he fights that giant battle, leaves 82 there, gathers the Northerners, marches on Winterfell, and loses 84 of his own men to the cold count (well, eighty, and then he executes four guys for cannibalism). So he still has 1,200-1,300 southrons, depending on how bad his Wall losses were. Let's say 1,250 Reach, Crownlands, and Stormlands troops are still with him in the march. The single most important part of his army by far. Then again, was it stated that only southrons died during the march?

Ser Marlon went on. “How many men can Stannis put into the field, can you tell us that? How

many knights ride with him? How many bowmen, how many freeriders, how many men-at-arms?”

Too few, Davos knew. Stannis had come north with no more than fifteen hundred men … but if

he told them that, his mission here was doomed. He fumbled for words and found none.

[Frey Pie]

The numbers are only mentioned once, in the immediate aftermath of the battle in Tyrions final chapter of AGOT and the final chapter we see inside Tywins warcamp in the Riverlands.

Forley Prester is notable as he lead his army away without fighting so received no casualties apart from the freeriders in his camp changing sides. The other two camps were ambushed and took significant casualties but considering the battle was at night I cant see 10,000 Westerland soldiers being killed by Robbs 6,000 and the Riverrun garrison.

Look at Ramsay beating Rodriks 2,000. We are told about no survivors until ADWD when Satnnis starts including them in his growing army.

a small number of survivors, a few hundred at the very most. The fact that some are specifically said to have survived already makes it very hard for me to think that another few thousand snuck off without comment or notice.

The Blackfish and robb strike me as pretty thorough. The camp that was attacked on two fronts I believe was completely decimated, while the other was also shattered, but not completely annihilated

And why does Tywin or Tyrion or arya never comment on survivors flocking to them from the camps? Because it didn't happen, at least not in large numbers

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

17,000 is nowhere near nearly double Edmure's strength (it is barely 50% greater, as opposed to 100%), which would be 22,000. 20,000 is close, so Cat is to be understood to have said Tywin has about 20,000 men. Edmure does not question this, even though he's in a position to know and wants to defend his plan. It is all very simple.

I do not see the point in knitpicking as to whether men would go east or not. They could have done and it explains Tywin's numbers.

Where did I even suggest 17,000? I was thinking along the range of ~19,000.

And Catelyn doesn't know Tywin's numbers, they all know he had 20,000, but since the Green Fork large portions of his host have been dispersed or in a castle, he could have had closer to 10,000 than 20,000 (he didn't but I am speaking hypothetically) and Catelyn wouldn't have known.

Edmure knows it's not about numbers, he knows he is outnumbered, he's no more proficient at maths than anyone else in westeros, not about to say : "nah we're not outnumbered 2:1, it's 7:4".

Likewise any discrepancies in the number of Soviet soldiers in WW2 could be explained by allied pilots being shot down over Germany, travelling east through enemy territory and joining up with the Russians. Or more likely there are bad reports.

Oh, I forgot to thank you for reminding me how to multiply by 2, my primary school teacher missed that one out.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

At what time, and were the men actually specified at any point as Freys?

The Lannister camp was supposed to be half as large as the Frey one.

Were they? Jaime intended them to make up the first wave of his attackers, so it would seem illogical to just consider them uninvolved.

I don't see why Jaime would have any trouble just saying "twenty-five times your number", especially when trying to intimidate the Blackfish. Perhaps there are only like 1,000 actual Frey soldiers in the siege, and the other 1,000 were various other Riverlands soldiers that bent the knee, the ones Jaime was planning to have make up the first wave? That'd explain the seeming discrepancy between 2,000 Frey soldiers laying siege to Riverrun at the same time that 2,000 Frey soldiers (including 500+ cavalry) march north with Roose and his 4,000 surviving North soldiers, and a few hundred other Frey soldiers garrison the Twins.

Anyway... Davos said Stannis had 1,500 soldiers on Dragonstone, more than half of them Florents. IIRC, this is after Stannis tells him he only has 1,300 men on Dragonstone. This number is repeated in ADWD, chapter 19, when Davos says that Stannis brought 1,500 soldiers to the Wall, even though, again, he heard Stannis claim to only have 1,300 on Dragonstone earlier (which would mean he only brought ~1,200 to the Wall). It would seem that, either Stannis's earlier number was retconned, or he found an extra 300 men (200 for marching North with the other 1,300, 100 for Dragonstone) between making that statement and going to the Wall. After arriving at the Wall, he fights that giant battle, leaves 82 there, gathers the Northerners, marches on Winterfell, and loses 84 of his own men to the cold count (well, eighty, and then he executes four guys for cannibalism). So he still has 1,200-1,300 southrons, depending on how bad his Wall losses were. Let's say 1,250 Reach, Crownlands, and Stormlands troops are still with him in the march. The single most important part of his army by far. Then again, was it stated that only southrons died during the march?

Ser Marlon went on. “How many men can Stannis put into the field, can you tell us that? How

many knights ride with him? How many bowmen, how many freeriders, how many men-at-arms?”

Too few, Davos knew. Stannis had come north with no more than fifteen hundred men … but if

he told them that, his mission here was doomed. He fumbled for words and found none.

The Flints lose one man and a horse, but they think the horse was stolen by one of the other clans.

Including the varied causes of death it's safe to round Stannis' casualties on the march up to 100.

[Chaircat Meow]

Where did I even suggest 17,000? I was thinking along the range of ~19,000.

The poster I was responding to at the time said 17,000.

And Catelyn doesn't know Tywin's numbers, they all know he had 20,000, but since the Green Fork large portions of his host have been dispersed or in a castle, he could have had closer to 10,000 than 20,000 (he didn't but I am speaking hypothetically) and Catelyn wouldn't have known.

Edmure knows it's not about numbers, he knows he is outnumbered, he's no more proficient at maths than anyone else in westeros, not about to say : "nah we're not outnumbered 2:1, it's 7:4".

Edmure is defending himself against Cat and would have said, 'no, not near so many' or something if her figure was that off. Cat was also well aware as to how the Stark strength was dispersing, I expect she kept herself roughly abridged of Tywin's.

Likewise any discrepancies in the number of Soviet soldiers in WW2 could be explained by allied pilots being shot down over Germany, travelling east through enemy territory and joining up with the Russians. Or more likely there are bad reports.

What?

Oh, I forgot to thank you for reminding me how to multiply by 2, my primary school teacher missed that one out.

Not what I was trying to do.

[Nihlus]

The Flints lose one man and a horse, but they think the horse was stolen by one of the other clans.

Including the varied causes of death it's safe to round Stannis' casualties on the march up to 100.

100 total, or 100 of Stannis's elite Reach/Crownlands/Stormlands knights and men-at-arms?

[Ramsay's Penguins]

No it doesn't. Near twice our strength means near twice our strength, i.e. nearly 2x 11,000.

I suggested men from the other camps got through to Tywin. We know the south camp retreated with Prester yes.

Which men, Andros Brax and his men on the rafts?

The Tyroshi sellsword?

The men who crumpled under Bryndens van?

The men who fell to Robbs charge to the west?

The men who survived the sortie by Tytos?

I do not see a lot of survivors joining this army. A Crakehall messenger iirc. Not a number that equals out the other deaths.

[Ramsay's Penguins]

Oh I know, maybe the Vale knights joined Tywin!

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

100 total, or 100 of Stannis's elite Reach/Crownlands/Stormlands knights and men-at-arms?

Almost all of Stannis' deaths on the march would have been southrons.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

The poster I was responding to at the time said 17,000.

Edmure is defending himself against Cat and would have said, 'no, not near so many' or something if her figure was that off. Cat was also well aware as to how the Stark strength was dispersing, I expect she kept herself roughly abridged of Tywin's.

Well why didn't Ramsay say, "no, we were only outnumbered 3.3 to one" to Theon when he comes up with his ridiculous estimation? It's because people in ASOIAF don't bother with mathematical technicalities.

Why are you insisting on the least likely explanation for this very simple problem?

[Chaircat Meow]

Well why didn't Ramsay say, "no, we were only outnumbered 3.3 to one" to Theon when he comes up with his ridiculous estimation? It's because people in ASOIAF don't bother with mathematical technicalities.

Why are you insisting on the least likely explanation for this very simple problem?

If Tywin doesn't have near double Edmure's men Cat isn't going to say he does and Edmure isn't going to agree.

I'm trying to find a way whereby we can keep Tywin's army at roughly 20,000 because that's what everyone says its strength is. None of the stuff I've brought up is unlikely.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Because it is pointless replying to every point. I'm not looking for an argument, just suggesting that regarding Tywin and his dealings in the Riverlands there is an awful lot of information we are not privy to.

Look at the start of the war. Jaime is in the battle of Golden Tooth and then the siege of Riverrun allowing Tywin to march through the Riverlands taking Raventree Hall, Harenhall and possibly others yet we never hear how many casualties the Riverlords takes in these battles. Similar to Clegane burning down the Piper and Darry settlements. There is a lot we are never told about. With Tywin, nor anyone in his camp, having a POV chapter we really dont have much idea what is going on with his army.

Jaime had an army of around 13k. 4k were able to escape West, it is not inconceivable that another few thousand could escape East and later find Tywin. That would explain the consistency in the size of his army throughout the War in the Riverlands.

If Tywin doesn't have near double Edmure's men Cat isn't going to say he does and Edmure isn't going to agree.

I'm trying to find a way whereby we can keep Tywin's army at roughly 20,000 because that's what everyone says its strength is. None of the stuff I've brought up is unlikely.

Jaime had ~15k, 2,250 of which was killed or captured (none escaped) in the Whispering Wood. 4k got away in an organised manner, the remaining 8,750: had no real allegiance to house Lannister so switched sides, were killed in the battle, or were scattered. The south camp would have had the least survivors, but of those that did survive a larger proportion would join new Lannister hosts, as for them it is a straight march down the River Road to the Golden Tooth, plus they would have had the chance to link up with Prester. They almost certainly wouldn't have crossed a river, unless it was to link up with Prester, because most of the fords would be fortified.

The men in the north camp would be in trouble, there are more survivors, but they are separated from their homeland and their liege (keep in mind they have no idea where Tywin is) by rivers. Some would probably end up going east, but these men have limited supplies and clothing, no leadership and probably no horses or pack animals, and will be dispersed into small bands. Most would end up hanged as/by outlaws, or actually become outlaws. If they did run into Tywin's outriders they are just as likely to be hanged for desertion as welcomed back into Tywin's army, since Gregor/Amory/Vargo aren't the most intelligent or understanding of guys.

For comparison after the Battle of Bannockburn, less than 1/3rd of the surviving foot-soldiers made it back to England, traveling 90 miles, and there were still well led bands of men around. Even if 3/4 of the north camp survived, only ~1/3 would make it 90 miles, assuming there was some kind of decent leadership, which there wasn't, to get to Tywin they have to travel 3 times that distance, and they have no idea where Tywin is.

[Chaircat Meow]

Jaime had ~15k, 2,250 of which was killed or captured (none escaped) in the Whispering Wood. 4k got away in an organised manner, the remaining 8,750: had no real allegiance to house Lannister so switched sides, were killed in the battle, or were scattered. The south camp would have had the least survivors, but of those that did survive a larger proportion would join new Lannister hosts, as for them it is a straight march down the River Road to the Golden Tooth, plus they would have had the chance to link up with Prester. They almost certainly wouldn't have crossed a river, unless it was to link up with Prester, because most of the fords would be fortified.

Prester's men in the south did cross the Red Fork to get back.

The men in the north camp would be in trouble, there are more survivors, but they are separated from their homeland and their liege (keep in mind they have no idea where Tywin is) by rivers. Some would probably end up going east, but these men have limited supplies and clothing, no leadership and probably no horses or pack animals, and will be dispersed into small bands. Most would end up hanged as/by outlaws, or actually become outlaws. If they did run into Tywin's outriders they are just as likely to be hanged for desertion as welcomed back into Tywin's army, since Gregor/Amory/Vargo aren't the most intelligent or understanding of guys.

The messenger was originally in the west camp but was going to the north when the attack happened. So it seems a least someone from the west got through to Tywin, despite being separated by rivers. I think it quite likely some hundreds from the north and west did make it to the crossroads.

For comparison after the Battle of Bannockburn, less than 1/3rd of the surviving foot-soldiers made it back to England, traveling 90 miles, and there were still well led bands of men around. Even if 3/4 of the north camp survived, only ~1/3 would make it 90 miles, assuming there was some kind of decent leadership, which there wasn't, to get to Tywin they have to travel 3 times that distance, and they have no idea where Tywin is.

There's four thousand in the north camp and we're proposing men in the high hundreds reach Tywin from it. Maybe a thousand when you throw in the west camp.