Did the North *ever* stand a chance?

[John Doe]

The North never had a chance.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

He was never going to achieve independence: that was only ever a pipe dream. On the other hand, independent or not, the Ironborn need land, which the North has in copious, undefended, quantities.

Apart from the 2,000 immediately gathered to defeat one force of Ironborn, and the 3,000 Mountain clansmen everyone forgot about, and the >400 Umbers, and the 450 Karstarks, 600+ Boltons, 700+ Manderly cavalry and enough Ryswells and Dustins to take out a few hundred Ironmen on the Saltspear.

All of which would quickly have been descending upon Deepwood Motte to kick Asha out if Theon and 30 men who can barely ride didn't somehow manage to warp 600 miles across the north without anyone noticing and take the capital of the north which only has like 4 guys defending it because reasons, and if Bolton hadn't been fighting Stark and Manderly. Balon has no way of knowing that Theon can take Winterfell or that there will be infighting in the north, if those two things don't happen there are more than enough northmen to defend all of the major keeps and settlements along their west coast.

[JLE]

And indeed, if Edmure had lost at Stone Mill, but made Tywin pay dearly for the crossing, then Tywin would have had a weakened force to go back into the Riverlands... his numbers and Robb's would have been, at best, evenly matched - and Robb had plans for exactly that possibility, and might even have beaten Tywin.

Better still if Edmure had deliberately let Tywin pass, and then followed up behind him to join the battle unexpectedly when Robb met Tywin, but that would have required greater communication skills than could exist under the circumstances: ravens cannot communicate between travelling armies in the field, only *from* an army *to* a secure base, not even back from that, so communication would have depended on horseback riders evading capture.

However. If Roose Bolton had not marched south overnight (officially "to steal a march on Tywin"), but let Tywin come to him and defended a series of secure positions, falling back to the next one and making Tywin pay dearly for every river crossing, then Tywin would have been a lot further north when Robb took Riverrun, and Robb could have taken the combined Riverrun and Northern army and followed up behind Tywin, trapping Tywin between his forces and Roose Bolton's. Assailed on *two* sides and outnumbered by competent commanders, Tywin would have been beaten at the start. And with Tywin beaten, the Lannister cause would have collapsed: while the Tyrells outnumbered everybody, they would not have taken *either* side if it were not for the fact that Tywin was still alive: so Stannis would have won at the Blackwater while the Tyrells remained neutral, but he would have had to make concessions to the Tyrells and to Robb (and possibly even to Dorne) in order to form effectively a minority administration. Which might have been the best thing for Westeros overall - Stannis in charge, but hamstrung, moderated and prevented from going truly extremist.

The worst thing that went wrong for Robb, right at the start, was Roose Bolton giving battle to Tywin, too early and too far south, at a time when Tywin could still evade Robb's forces and fall back on Harrenhall, at the Battle of the Green Fork... in which not a single Dreadfort man actually joined in the action, and not a single commander in Bolton colours was taken captive.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Robb was sandwiched between enemies too, in case you had forgotten. The Ironborn were still slowly conquering the North, and had successfully cut off the North from a potential retreat. Tywin is not likely to move against a host five times the size of his either. He moved against Stannis because let's face it, the odds looked considerably better for the Tyrell-Lannister force if they reached the Blackwater in time.

Renly is never shown to ever only command "nominal loyalty" either, and saying he is "surrounded by enemies" is a bit rich. He's got the Lannisters to the North and Crownlands to the East, and he could have fairly easily dealt with both of them. If anything, I see Robb's disloyal bannermen being even more eager to betray him in a scenario where Robb has to defeat Renly, as some of them were already eager to join him before Robb crowned himself.

If by some of them you mean Jonos Bracken and Marq Piper, who basically argues for anything that means more fighting, and by eager you mean suggested it at council, then yes, some of them were eager to join Renly.

[Ramsay Gimp]

It really isn't. Renly is more than clear, he can call himself what he likes as long as he bows before him and pays his taxes. Cat knows this is a failure as would the Northern bannermen.

Check the last post on the previous page for Renlys empty concessions. Robb would have to bow to him as would the other Lords of the North.

Making Cat stay against her wishes is some Tywin type shit; "look at how easily I dispose of other 'kings', go tell your son what awaits him should he do the same."

Now personally, I think Robb should have taken that deal and been grateful but Cat and the readers know that he wouldn't.

A crown is a powerful symbol even if it doesn't come with full independence. Robb could have the satisfaction of being the only other King in Westeros, even if he still owes fealty to the King on the Iron Throne.

It really depends what Renly meant when he said Robb could "rule as he pleases" and "call himself" King in the North. Obviously it would still be a master-vassal relationship, but it sounds like he was offering the North a more autonomous and privileged status than the other regions.

[Ramsay Gimp]

People seem to be overestimating the impact of the Green Fork. It is never treated as a disastrous defeat in the novels so saying that it was the worst event for Robb's cause is a bit much.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

People seem to be overestimating the impact of the Green Fork. It is never treated as s disastrous defeat in the novels so saying that it was the worst event for Robb's cause is a bit much.

He lost 7,000 men, possibly more, roughly 2 Red Weddings in terms of numbers.

[Ramsay Gimp]

He lost 7,000 men, possibly more, roughly 2 Red Weddings in terms of numbers.

And yet no one ever complains, Tywin shrugs Roose off as "cautious" and "wary", and after the battle everyone agrees that Robb is winning.

Do we really know they lost 7000 men?

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

And yet no one ever complains, Tywin shrugs Roose off as "cautious" and "wary", and after the battle everyone agrees that Robb is winning.

Do we really know they lost 7000 men?

Roose only had around 10,000 at the beginning of Clash, he started off with between 17,700 and 16,200 when he left the Twins, so best case scenario Roose lost just under 6,000, worst he lost nearly 8,000.

The fact that no one ever questions Roose continuing to command the infantry is a bit of a plot weakness, as even Ran has admitted.

[The Reckoner]

Not without Stannis, no.

[Nihlus]

Roose only had around 10,000 at the beginning of Clash, he started off with between 17,700 and 16,200 when he left the Twins, so best case scenario Roose lost just under 6,000, worst he lost nearly 8,000.

The fact that no one ever questions Roose continuing to command the infantry is a bit of a plot weakness, as even Ran has admitted.

It's possible that Edmure's comment wasn't counting the Freys. This is supported by the fact that the North host has ~9,500 after the Freys leave, and the Freys are then shown in subsequent books to have over three thousand men left. Plus, 1,000 Karstarks deserted too. So Roose could have taken as few as 4,000 losses to Tywin's ~1,000 losses. Which is still pretty crippling, mind, but not as ridiculously disastrous as was implied.

[John Doe]

Roose only had around 10,000 at the beginning of Clash, he started off with between 17,700 and 16,200 when he left the Twins, so best case scenario Roose lost just under 6,000, worst he lost nearly 8,000.

No, he started with 15.000 men, so he lot about a third of his army.

[Ramsay Gimp]

It's possible that Edmure's comment wasn't counting the Freys. This is supported by the fact that the North host has ~9,500 after the Freys leave, and the Freys are then shown in subsequent books to have over three thousand men lefty Plus, 1,000 Karstarks deserted too. So Roose could have taken as few as 4,000 losses to Tywin's ~1,000 losses. Which is still pretty crippling, mind, but not as ridiculously disastrous as was implied.

This makes more sense

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

No, he started with 15.000 men, so he lot about a third of his army.

18,000-4,000-400+2,600=16,200

Personally I am of the belief that the Manderly 1,500 was not included in the 18,000 statement, so it should be:

19,500-4,000-400+2,600=17,700

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

It's possible that Edmure's comment wasn't counting the Freys. This is supported by the fact that the North host has ~9,500 after the Freys leave, and the Freys are then shown in subsequent books to have over three thousand men lefty Plus, 1,000 Karstarks deserted too. So Roose could have taken as few as 4,000 losses to Tywin's ~1,000 losses. Which is still pretty crippling, mind, but not as ridiculously disastrous as was implied.

The Frey's are shown to have more than 4,000 as pointed out towards the end of the OP here: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/125122-complete-rundown-of-army-sizes-and-losses-throughout-the-books-long/

The Freys had 1,500 men at Harrenhal, meaning Roose had ~9,000 northmen (Helman Tallhart joins up with him), he loses 3,000 at Duskendale and 1/3rd of what remains at the Ruby Ford, leaving him ~4,000 men, he had 3,500 at the Twins and another 600 guarding the Ruby ford, so 4,100 total, which works fine because any of these numbers could be out by a few hundred anyway.

We are never told where the thousand Karstarks supposedly come from, it doesn't make sense that they were with Roose because he sent his Karhold men off with Harrion to Duskendale. The only explanation I can think of is that he is (greatly) exaggerating the ~300 who left Riverrun in order to intimidate Jaime.

[Nihlus]

The Frey's are shown to have more than 4,000 as pointed out towards the end of the OP here: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/125122-complete-rundown-of-army-sizes-and-losses-throughout-the-books-long/

The Freys had 1,500 men at Harrenhal, meaning Roose had ~9,000 northmen (Helman Tallhart joins up with him), he loses 3,000 at Duskendale and 1/3rd of what remains at the Ruby Ford, leaving him ~4,000 men, he had 3,500 at the Twins and another 600 guarding the Ruby ford, so 4,100 total, which works fine because any of these numbers could be out by a few hundred anyway.

We are never told where the thousand Karstarks supposedly come from, it doesn't make sense that they were with Roose because he sent his Karhold men off with Harrion to Duskendale. The only explanation I can think of is that he is (greatly) exaggerating the ~300 who left Riverrun in order to intimidate Jaime.

I already said I don't think the Freys had 2,000 at Riverrun. The combined force of Lannisters, Freys, and other Rivermen was <4,000 men. I think the Freys had less than 1,000 men there.

I don't buy Arya's estimate. Either she's wrong or there were other Freys off somewhere, since the Freys definitely did not take that many losses unless the next two books retconned the war. The Karstarks probably deserted before he could order them to Duskendale. He has no reason to lie to Jaime, and those Karstark cavalry deserted in the Westerlands anyway. 3,000 is said to be 1/3 of the North foot, so after the desertion of 1,000 Karstarks and likely ~2,000 Freys, in addition to the Green Fork losses, the North has ~9,500 men under Roose's command. I'm not sure I believe Roose about sending Karhold men to Duskendale either; that doesn't make a lot of sense wit what we later learn.

Say Roose had 17,300 at Green Fork. He loses 5,000, bringing him down to 12,300. Then he loses the 1,000 Karstarks and let's say 2,200 Freys, bringing him down to 9,100. Glover joins him, making his host 9,500. Then he sends what is explicitly stated to be 1/3 of his foot, 3,000 men, to Duskendale (He says he has 500 heavy cavalry at the Red Wedding). That makes the most sense to me.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

I already said I don't think the Freys had 2,000 at Riverrun. The combined force of Lannisters, Freys, and other Rivermen was <4,000 men. I think the Freys had less than 1,000 men there.

I don't buy Arya's estimate. Either she's wrong or there were other Freys off somewhere, since the Freys definitely did not take that many losses unless the next two books retconned the war. The Karstarks probably deserted before he could order them to Duskendale. He has no reason to lie to Jaime, and those Karstark cavalry deserted in the Westerlands anyway. 3,000 is said to be 1/3 of the North foot, so after the desertion of 1,000 Karstarks and likely ~2,000 Freys, in addition to the Green Fork losses, the North has ~9,500 men under Roose's command.

Say Roose had 17,300 at Green Fork. He loses 5,000, bringing him down to 12,300. Then he loses the 1,000 Karstarks and let's say 2,200 Freys, bringing him down to 9,100. Glover joins him, making his host 9,500. Then he sends what is explicitly stated to be 1/3 of his foot, 3,000 men, to Duskendale (He says he has 500 heavy cavalry at the Red Wedding). That makes the most sense to me.

1/3rd is close enough to 3/10 that no one in westeros cares, indeed Tyrion is the only one who ever worries about numbers in such a manner, correcting 1,000/300 for Jeor Mormont, but Mormont doesn't care.

The Karstarks have no reason to desert en masse, they are with Harrion, and Rickard is still loyal to Robb.

We are told Frey had 2,000 men at Riverrun, that is all we have to go on.

Arya's figure of 1,500 makes sense, the Frey forces were near the front, so should have suffered fairly heavy casualties, 3 Freys and a Rivers were taken captive, probably meaning that a considerable number of Frey troops were killed.

The higher Frey numbers can be explained in several ways, as suggested in my army sizes OP.

[Nihlus]

1/3rd is close enough to 3/10 that no one in westeros cares, indeed Tyrion is the only one who ever worries about numbers in such a manner, correcting 1,000/300 for Jeor Mormont, but Mormont doesn't care.

The Karstarks have no reason to desert en masse, they are with Harrion, and Rickard is still loyal to Robb.

We are told Frey had 2,000 men at Riverrun, that is all we have to go on.

Arya's figure of 1,500 makes sense, the Frey forces were near the front, so should have suffered fairly heavy casualties, 3 Freys and a Rivers were taken captive, probably meaning that a considerable number of Frey troops were killed.

The higher Frey numbers can be explained in several ways, as suggested in my army sizes OP.

Again, I don't think Roose actually sent those men to Duskendale. That doesn't match what we see later. Not only because of that 1,000 Karstarks comment, but because there are Karstark soldiers at the Red Wedding.

Are we? Where? And if we are, are those actually said to be Frey men specifically?

Not really. Again, the Freys clearly have more than three thousand men in the following books, which would be impossible of they lost so many men during the war.

I don't buy the explanation given in the OP. In particular the comment suggesting that a force where 1/4 are veteran mounted knights is considered weak and expendable.

[Crazy Joe Wilson]

Claiming that the North never had a chance is presentism. At the time of the Northern Rebellion this was the strategic situation facing Robb;

40,000 Northmen and Rivermen, split by the Trident.

20,000 Lannisters at Harrenhal, 3-5 at King's Landing, another 10,000 forming up in the Westerlands.

30,000~ Valemen (who by all accounts and in any other world without a manical Littlefinger would have joined with Robb's force after the Battle of the Green Fork and the Battle of the Camps)

5,000+ troops under Stannis' command (negligible)

100,000+ Reachmen/Stormlanders under Renly's command (Neutral at worst, but enemies of the Lannisters, so it works in Robb's favor.

20,000 Ironborn, the heir to the Iron Islands in his control (Again, in another world without a crazy, past-obsessed Balon Greyjoy, this would be in his favor.

Also, an additional 18-20,000 Northmen who haven't been brought down the Neck yet.

So, in a world where Lysa Tully is not insane and in love with Littlefinger (and therefore obeying his commands even when her own knights are begging to join Robb's cause), Robb now has 88,000 potential troops, versus the Lannister's 35,000. And the Lannisters have to split their forces between Robb's and Renly's.

In a world where Balon Greyjoy sees the sense in attacking a virtually unprotected, and vastly richer Westerlands versus the much poorer, much bigger North, Robb has 108,000 troops on his side, versus the Lannister's 35,000. This also put Robb at parity with Renly.

The Hornwood Crisis of course weakens the North, what other Kingdom at the time has an internal crisis of the same importance (Bolton vs. Manderly vs. Umber vs. Hornwood). If that doesn't happen, even if the Ironborn do invade (Which they will because the Greyjoys are dumb), then it's 18,000 Ironborn versus 18-20,000 Northmen, and the Ironborn have long supply lines to anything of substance.

Sending Theon didn't cause the Ironborn Invasion, but it did cause the fall of Winterfell. Without Theon as part of the invasion, the Ironborn stike at a few targets of minor importance, get kicked out, and then Balon falls to his death and his successor does something less dumb.

Also, no one could have seen the death of Renly coming via shadowbaby. That triggers a whole slew of unforseen and unpredictable consequences. And since Catelyn was already present during the death of Renly, there nixes any possible negotiation by Catelyn or other Northmen to secure Margaery's hand and a new alliance.

So in other words, in order for Robb to fail, GRRM had to have

1)Lysa be crazy and unpredictable,

2)Balon be crazy and unpredictable,

3)Renly get shadow-assassinated,

4)Hornwood Crisis divide the North right when the Ironborn start hitting,

5)Rodrick Cassel be lackluster (this one is actually something Robb could have avoided),

6)Theon's capture of Winterfell (Again, could have been avoided),

7)Not marry Jeyne (This one is arguable, the Freys might have betrayed Robb regardless of his marriage pact with them, since Walder Frey's turncoat nature is set up from his first scene, refusing to help out his liege lord), and

8)Roose Bolton not being a traitor from the very start (https://racefortheironthrone.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/chapter-by-chapter-analysis-tyrion-viii/ is a very good synopsis for how obvious it is that Roose pretty much threw the Battle of the Green Fork, setting up his pattern of betraying Robb from the very beginning).

By my count, 5-6 of those reasons for why Robb and the North lost were completely out his control, and only in the control of one person, the very real GRRM. From Robb's point of view, as most of the Northmen, their rebellion was very possible. From the perspective of the author though, they were set up from the beginning to be the story of the tragic young warrior king.

[John Doe]

Where in the text where the numbers for the Riverlands stated?