Ramsay obviously wrote the pink letter

[haemonculus]

The way I see it Ramsay is indeed the most likely culprit.

He could have all the information from torturing various people.

Details like the handwriting not being mentioned, can be explained away easily (in this case: George already described it, no real need to mention it every time)

He has a motive: The Boltons do not want a Stark, bastard or not, Lord Commander of the Nights Watch, but also do not want to be the aggressor, for political reasons.

The timing, as established, is not a problem. The battle that will take place in WoW is chronologically placed before the stabbing.

The usage of the term "bastard" fits in so far as he could get a kick out it, now that he is not one any longer.

How much of it is true, is of course debatable, but I agree that the two big battles both won by the "good guys" would be at the very least a change of pace.

And I think Dany will win Mereen, purely for meta reasons. She will need to come to Westeros soon and will need troops (most likely transported by Ironborn ships) to move her plot forward. Her crushing the slaver alliance make those things more likely. Could also finally give her closure for the slavery problem. A crushing defeat for Yunkai plus slave revolts led by the Red priests all over the bay could end slavery there for good (obviously with strife and hardship rather than puppies and rainbows). Mission accomplished, goodbye Esssos.

That and we see confidence inspiring preparations on Stannis' side. Never good, man. Never good.

[Fear of Drowning]

I don't see it. Why should she even think of the Wall, all of a sudden? She's a squid, the Wall, the Watch, wildlings, all that are just abstract terms for her. It'd be as if Stannis had thought on his own about recruiting northern mountain clans for his host.

Cotter Pyke, commander of Eastwatch, is Ironborn. They know all about the Watch and the Wildlings. Plus Asha has had months with Stannis army, listening to all the gossip. She knows all about the situation at the wall. These are the only people close enough to create the chaos she needs to escape.

Snowstorm? So, the weather? The weather was obviously mild enough to send a raven. Add a few days for the bird to cross the distance to Castle Black, a few days to assemble a host, and a few weeks of march atop of that. A month? Two months? Local weather will change back and forth several times in that time. Plus: both wildlings and crows are quite familiar with harsh conditions, they can assess them on their own.

Not only the Weather. Facing a large Bolton host encamped in a strong, fortified castle with plentiful supplies. While you are outside with no forage.

Storms aren't going to stop ravens. Plus, this storm is clearly supernatural in nature. Mance knows all about the supernatural threat. The Wildlings/Watch don't just have to get to Winterfell, they have to pull off a siege in these conditions, after enduring the march. If Stannis elite army, which smashed Mances enormous Wildling host and has grown a great deal since, are really suffering at this task, what hope do the few Wildling who made it through the wall have?

The letter seems calculated to goad people into making a stupid decision. Mance wants the Wildlings to be victorious and prosper. Asha doesn't care what happens to them. Plus, there is a serious threat north of the wall. Tricking its defenders into going south is bad for everyone. Mance knows this, Asha doesn't.

[oursisthefury69]

lol, I really like your analogy to conservatives rejecting global warming.

And I agree, I don't know that it was Mance for sure, but it is definitely not obvious who wrote the Pink Letter. There are only a few things in the story that I would consider obvious at all, like Dany will obviously come to Westeros with her dragons, and Arya is obviously coming back to Westeros to use her wolf pack, and Cersei is obviously going to die before the end, things like that. And even those are stretching the definition of obvious in my mind.

Well said.

And it further goes to the same point when people comment things like "it was obviously Mance" ect. I can tell your probably leaning towards Mance but you still acknowledge the alternatives and room for error. Its one of the harder mysteries to unfold at this point in the series (that is if you even realize its a mystery/not as advertised) its isnt obvious in any fashion. The only reason i can imagine one would bill/propogate anything regarding this theory as "obvious" is if they're trying to divert from actual discussion to avoid other possibilities, which one would only do if they had some sort of personal stake in the matter (which nobody does with any theory ftr). Why somebody would feel like they have a personal stake in a theory regarding a fantasy is another discussion, probably some weird defense reflex to where there perturbed they never realized it may not be Ramsay during their individual reading, were annoyed to see that it probably isnt, and then work to defend it so as to also defend the integrity of their own initial reading observance level; Much like the people who've been working on R+L=J for the past 19 years and never picked up on Tyrion being Aerys son, so in-turn reject the notion in the face of all logic and progressive totality of evidence

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Cotter Pyke, commander of Eastwatch, is Ironborn.

Yes he is.

They know all about the Watch and the Wildlings.

No, I don't think they do. Unless they have some sort of a hive mind, what Cotter Pyke has learned during his long years of service at the Wall belongs to him, not to all ironborn. And how often is the Wall present in Asha's thoughts? Because, frankly, I can't remember a single instance.

Plus Asha has had months with Stannis army, listening to all the gossip. She knows all about the situation at the wall. These are the only people close enough to create the chaos she needs to escape.

Not only the Weather. Facing a large Bolton host encamped in a strong, fortified castle with plentiful supplies. While you are outside with no forage.

Storms aren't going to stop ravens.

Why on Earth not? Since when are tiny aircraft, muscle-powered to boot, weather-resistant? Impervious to cold and strong enough to beat a gale?

Plus, this storm is clearly supernatural in nature. Mance knows all about the supernatural threat. The Wildlings/Watch don't just have to get to Winterfell, they have to pull off a siege in these conditions, after enduring the march. If Stannis elite army, which smashed Mances enormous Wildling host and has grown a great deal since, are really suffering at this task, what hope do the few Wildling who made it through the wall have?

The letter seems calculated to goad people into making a stupid decision. Mance wants the Wildlings to be victorious and prosper. Asha doesn't care what happens to them. Plus, there is a serious threat north of the wall. Tricking its defenders into going south is bad for everyone. Mance knows this, Asha doesn't.

So he'd have them attack a magical wall seven hundred feet tall, but not a castle?

No, I can't say your arguments sound convincing to me.

[Fear of Drowning]

Yes he is.

No, I don't think they do. Unless they have some sort of a hive mind, what Cotter Pyke has learned during his long years of service at the Wall belongs to him, not to all ironborn. And how often is the Wall present in Asha's thoughts? Because, frankly, I can't remember a single instance.

On the Isles, they know about the Wildlings and the wall because he +joined+ the watch. I am not suggesting he carried any knowledge back. The Ironborn aren't Southrons, and it is logical they have dealings with the Watch and Wildlings given their seafaring ways. Besides, as I said, Asha spent months with Stannis host, so will have learned all about the situation at the wall.

Martin would be making the mystery of the letter too obvious if he showed Asha thinking about the wall.

Why on Earth not? Since when are tiny aircraft, muscle-powered to boot, weather-resistant? Impervious to cold and strong enough to beat a gale?

Because there +was+ a storm and the raven got through. Both these facts are evidenced by the text - it doesn't matter whether Asha, Ramsay or Mance sent the letter.

http://www.birdnature.com/nov1898/birds.html

Do you believe that there was +not+ a terrible, supernatural snowstorm which has lasted much longer than any earthly storm without relenting and which continues as far as the story has progressed, centered on Winterfell towards the end of Dance. If so, tell me and I'll get evidence from the text.

So he'd have them attack a magical wall seven hundred feet tall, but not a castle?

When they were north of the wall it was attack the wall or be killed by the Others. This was their only play, their only option - Mance says as much to Jon. Plus the watch is absolutely puny compared to the Bolton host at Winterfell.

Now, those Wildlings who have crossed the wall are reasonably safe. Completely different situation.

[three-eyed monkey]

My bananas are on Stannis.

[Red Typer of Dorne]

Cotter Pyke, commander of Eastwatch, is Ironborn. They know all about the Watch and the Wildlings. Plus Asha has had months with Stannis army, listening to all the gossip. She knows all about the situation at the wall. These are the only people close enough to create the chaos she needs to escape.

Not only the Weather. Facing a large Bolton host encamped in a strong, fortified castle with plentiful supplies. While you are outside with no forage.

Storms aren't going to stop ravens. Plus, this storm is clearly supernatural in nature. Mance knows all about the supernatural threat. The Wildlings/Watch don't just have to get to Winterfell, they have to pull off a siege in these conditions, after enduring the march. If Stannis elite army, which smashed Mances enormous Wildling host and has grown a great deal since, are really suffering at this task, what hope do the few Wildling who made it through the wall have?

The letter seems calculated to goad people into making a stupid decision. Mance wants the Wildlings to be victorious and prosper. Asha doesn't care what happens to them. Plus, there is a serious threat north of the wall. Tricking its defenders into going south is bad for everyone. Mance knows this, Asha doesn't.

How would Asha find out? As far as I remember, only Jon, Mel, Stannis and Mance know of this plan, I can't see Stannis (the only one present) mouthing off to some men at arms about his plans. I suppose he may tell Davos but there's no hint he has.

Again, Ramsay has the information or means to get it, he has the motivation (not only cruelty but if fAyra were to reach Jon, his marriage would be exposed as a sham), he has the means (ie ravens). As for the 'why ask for Val and Mances son?' Do we not think the idea of torturing or killing Mances family as revenge for stealing his bride is quite Ramsayesque?

[Fear of Drowning]

How would Asha find out? As far as I remember, only Jon, Mel, Stannis and Mance know of this plan, I can't see Stannis (the only one present) mouthing off to some men at arms about his plans. I suppose he may tell Davos but there's no hint he has.

Again, Ramsay has the information or means to get it, he has the motivation (not only cruelty but if fAyra were to reach Jon, his marriage would be exposed as a sham), he has the means (ie ravens). As for the 'why ask for Val and Mances son?' Do we not think the idea of torturing or killing Mances family as revenge for stealing his bride is quite Ramsayesque?

The Plan? You mean the plan for Mance and the Spearwives to rescue fake Arya? Asha learned all about this from Theon, who was there and involved when Mance and the Spearwives put the plan into action. Theon told her everything.

Yes, it is all 'Ramsayesque', but that is how Asha wants it to look, and she knows all about Ramsay from Theon.

[Red Typer of Dorne]

The Plan? You mean the plan for Mance and the Spearwives to rescue fake Arya? Asha learned all about this from Theon. He told her everything.

Yes, it is all 'Ramsayesque', but that is how Asha wants it to look, and she knows all about Ramsay from Theon.

Does Theon know that Abel is Mance? I can't find any reference that he does, Theon always thinks of him as Abel and at no point thinks of him as anything but Abel the singer.

[Fear of Drowning]

From the Theon Winds chapter:

"Then the words came spilling out of Theon in a rush. He then tried to tell her all of it, about Reek and the Dreadfort and Kyra and the keys, how Lord Ramsay never took anything but skin unless you begged for it. He told her how he'd saved the girl, leaping from the castle wall into the snow. "We flew. Let Abel make a song of that, we flew." Then he had to say who Abel was, and talk about the washerwomen who weren't truly washerwomen."

[Red Typer of Dorne]

From the Theon Winds chapter:

"Then the words came spilling out of Theon in a rush. He then tried to tell her all of it, about Reek and the Dreadfort and Kyra and the keys, how Lord Ramsay never took anything but skin unless you begged for it. He told her how he'd saved the girl, leaping from the castle wall into the snow. "We flew. Let Abel make a song of that, we flew." Then he had to say who Abel was, and talk about the washerwomen who weren't truly washerwomen."

That could explain it, or it could simply be 'Abel was a travelling singer, or a mercenary, or a friend of Jon, a spy for Stannis' point is, it doesn't explicitly say he knows he's Mance, even in this POV he is referred to as Abel.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

On the Isles, they know about the Wildlings and the wall because he +joined+ the watch. I am not suggesting he carried any knowledge back. The Ironborn aren't Southrons, and it is logical they have dealings with the Watch and Wildlings given their seafaring ways. Besides, as I said, Asha spent months with Stannis host, so will have learned all about the situation at the wall.

Martin would be making the mystery of the letter too obvious if he showed Asha thinking about the wall.

Sorry, no. If ironborn never talk of the wildlings and the Watch, and never think of the wildlings and the Watch, then one. out of thin air, devising a cunning plan involving both would be an ass-pull. If Asha ever did (did she?), her authorship wouldn't be "too obvious", but merely "OK, now one of the possibilities".

Say, some dwarf wanted to burn a fleet using one very long chain and a few thousand potfuls of wildfire. An sloppy way to write about it would be to introduce both at the moment they're used. Good craftsmanship would be to make the dwarf order a chain, and make the dwarf order the wildfire, and with that prep work done, write the burning.

Because there +was+ a storm and the raven got through. Both these facts are evidenced by the text - it doesn't matter whether Asha, Ramsay or Mance sent the letter.

http://www.birdnature.com/nov1898/birds.html

It's circular reasoning. You assume the raven was sent out during a vicious storm, because you assume a vicious storm is no obstacle for a bird, because you assume the raven was sent during a vicious storm. (Also, it's one thing to glide over, and quite another to take off right into one).

[Fear of Drowning]

It's circular reasoning. You assume the raven was sent out during a vicious storm, because you assume a vicious storm is no obstacle for a bird, because you assume the raven was sent during a vicious storm. (Also, it's one thing to glide over, and quite another to take off right into one).

No, it isn't. I am just pointing out that a Raven made it through the Storm according to your theory as well as mine. You believe Ramsay wrote the letter correct? Which means the Raven went through the Storm, from Winterfell to Castle Black according to your theory. The Ravens journey is the same whether Asha or Ramsay wrote the letter, and the Raven made it. If it is possible for a raven sent by Ramsay to have reached Castle Black, it is equally possible for a raven sent by Asha to have done so.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/81078-winter-fell/

ass-pull.

English please, I don't speak pottymouth. IIRC we see Asha hearing about Stannis deeds at the wall in her DwD chapters, so she is clearly aware.

[Fear of Drowning]

That could explain it, or it could simply be 'Abel was a travelling singer, or a mercenary, or a friend of Jon, a spy for Stannis' point is, it doesn't explicitly say he knows he's Mance, even in this POV he is referred to as Abel.

Indeed, we don't know for sure and will have to wait to find out. I think Asha is the most likely candidate for writing the letter as she has the strongest and most coherent motive, but it could be Ramsay or Mance.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

No, it isn't. I am just pointing out that a Raven made it through the Storm according to your theory as well as mine. You believe Ramsay wrote the letter correct?

Goodness, which one of my posts gave you that impression?

[jon316]

So you are suggesting that Stannis actually fought Ramsay already in 7 days of battle and lost, and is dead, and then Ramsay wrote that letter, Jon recieved the letter, got stabbed, and then after that...

...we get a chapter with Stannis, which takes place apparently at least 1 week before Ramsay started writing the letter. I'm going to say no. I know George brings back characters from the dead, but he doesn't kill them off screen then have a chapter where they are still alive and just haven't died yet. That's silly.

you need to read a cavel on chronolagy in a DoD and you will understand why it is very possible for that jon was alive and well during the theon pov in WoW.

[Fear of Drowning]

Goodness, which one of my posts gave you that impression?

Mistype. I meant to say that you believe Mance wrote the letter. Correct, yes? In anycase my point stands - according to your theory the Raven traveled through the snowstorm from Winterfell to Castle Black.

[draft0]

I think Ramsay wrote it but not all the information in the letter is accurate.

Stannis is not dead because he still needs to burn Shireen (confirmed by David Benioff).

Ramsay never says he actually has Stannis's head, only his magic sword. This could be because Stannis is pretending to be defeated as a ruse to take Winterfell, or because Stannis lost the battle but somehow escaped. Either way Ramsay really has Lightbringer.

Ramsay thinks that Theon and Jeyne are at Castle Black because he knows about Jon's plot. The most likely scenario is that he captured Mance and his spearwives after Theon's escape and tortured the information out of them. Mance Rayder is a dead man walking. At last sight he was trapped in Winterfell, completely exposed (his washer women were seen helping Theon), and being hunted by Bolton's men. How the hell is he going to escape? Much less forge a letter to send by raven to the Wall.

Stannis, Asha, Theon, and any other suspects around Winterfell cannot be the author because they don't know that Abel is Mance Rayder. Melisandre, who does, has no motive whatsoever. That leaves only Ramsay.

[draft0]

Does Theon know that Abel is Mance? I can't find any reference that he does, Theon always thinks of him as Abel and at no point thinks of him as anything but Abel the singer.

Absolutely no one knows that Abel is Mance Rayder except for Mance, Jon, Melisandre, and the spearwives.

Ramsay is in a position to acquire this information by capturing Mance (as he states in the Pink Letter). Mance could also have told someone else about himself later on, for example if Stannis takes Winterfell. It's confirmed by GRRM that the Theon chapter in TWOW takes place before Jon receives the Pink Letter:

(The chronology, as usual, is tricky. This chapter will be found eventually at the beginning of WINDS, but as you will be able to tell from context, it actually takes place before some of the chapters at the end of DANCE).

The author of the Pink Letter is telling the truth about there being a battle. Occam's razor says it's Ramsay.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

English please, I don't speak pottymouth.

Oh, pity. I'll try to alleviate holes in your education.

An Ass Pull is a moment when the writers pull something out of thin air in a less-than-graceful narrative development, violating the Law of Conservation of Detail by dropping a plot-critical detail in the middle, or near the end of their narrative without Foreshadowing or dropping a Chekhov's Gun earlier on.

In cases where a character suddenly gets a new skill without explanation, it's usually explained away as a Chekhov's Classroom or Chekhov's Skill, except the audience never saw the character attending the lecture in question, or any prior examples of him or her using, or even training that skill.

An Ass Pull used to resolve an unwinnable situation for the protagonists is a Deus ex Machina. An Ass Pull used in the same way for the villains is a Diabolus Ex Machina. An Ass Pull doesn't necessarily have to resolve or derail a situation, though; many times, an Ass Pull is just used without any greater plot implication.

But the fact that you tried to use my usage of a Bad Word as an out (and not even that bad word, either), and your fondness for unfounded assumptions, suggests that we probably won't have a productive discussion.