Ramsay obviously wrote the pink letter

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

tv show spoilers

I think Ramsay wrote it but not all the information in the letter is accurate.

Stannis is not dead because he still needs to burn Shireen (confirmed by David Benioff). Ramsay never says he actually has Stannis's head, only his magic sword. This could be because Stannis is pretending to be defeated as a ruse to take Winterfell, or because Stannis lost the battle but somehow escaped. Either way Ramsay really has Lightbringer.

Ramsay thinks that Theon and Jeyne are at Castle Black because he knows about Jon's plot. The most likely scenario is that he captured Mance and his spearwives after Theon's escape and tortured the information out of them. Mance Rayder is a dead man walking. At last sight he was trapped in Winterfell, completely exposed (his washer women were seen helping Theon), and being hunted by Bolton's men. How the hell is he going to escape? Much less forge a letter to send by raven to the Wall.

Stannis, Asha, Theon, and any other suspects around Winterfell cannot be the author because they don't know that Abel is Mance Rayder. Melisandre, who does, has no motive whatsoever. That leaves only Ramsay.

Please use spoilers for info about the show, which a lot of people have stopped watching because they don't want spoilers. I have seen the show and I know what you're talking about, and by no means did Benioff "confirm" anything other than Shireen gets burned alive. He did not confirm that Stannis was even there. Watch it again.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

you need to read a cavel on chronolagy in a DoD and you will understand why it is very possible for that jon was alive and well during the theon pov in WoW.

Yes I have read it, but you have missed my point. It is possible Jon was alive and well during the Theon pov, but I highly doubt it was possible that Stannis, or any character, would die and then show up in a chapter right after that technically took place before their death. That is fucking crazy.

[jon316]

Oh i see i appolagize

[draft0]

tv show spoilers

Please use spoilers for info about the show, which a lot of people have stopped watching because they don't want spoilers. I have seen the show and I know what you're talking about, and by no means did Benioff "confirm" anything other than Shireen gets burned alive. He did not confirm that Stannis was even there. Watch it again.

Spoiler

If you look at the whole context of the quote he can't be referring to anything else but Stannis. Benioff is specifically talking about Stannis's character arc, not Shireen. Linda (a GRRM insider) agrees.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

Spoiler

If you look at the whole context of the quote he can't be referring to anything else but Stannis. Benioff is specifically talking about Stannis's character arc, not Shireen. Linda (a GRRM insider) agrees.

I have also watched the Elio & Linda review of the episode, I wouldn't say that Linda agrees, just that that was her impression of what Benioff meant, and he might have meant that, but we don't know because his actual words were ambiguous. Linda is not an authority on the words of D&D.

[Ser Naufragus]

Ok the TV show spoilers don't indicate who wrote the letter. Only that certain facts might be true.

 

I can make a case either way.

 

• Not having skin or not torturing etc, goes with the text. The Boltons kept that on downlow and were surrounded by other Lords. Roose was trying to get Ramsey to tone it down. But they did indeed skin the spearwives
• It mentions Reek. Yes last we saw Reek he was with Stannis. But maybe he escaped, lost in battle. We don't know. It also makes no sense what so ever for anyone else to include Reek. Jon has no idea who Reek is. Reek would be meaningless to Jon
• He mentions "my bride". Ramsey would know if Jon had her he would know its not his sister so wouldn't say "your sister". A forger would likely reference Arya to get Jon even more worked up. By revealing that Ramsey doesn't have Arya it weakens the forgers intent

Against I have

 

• There was no seal it was just sealed with pink wax
• It uses bastard several times and the is chapter after chapter about not using that word around Ramsey
• The truths could be known to someone by any number of plausible circumstances
• The focus on Val and the baby
• A 7 day battle sounds implausible given the weather and the condition of Stannis' army
• The forger knows Jon doesn't have the bride so there can be no trade only confrontation

If its a forgery, the only person it benefits is Stannis if he didn't actual fall

[Haus of Targaryen]

I went back and forth with this as well; was it Ramsay, could it have been someone else, who has all the information provided, what reason would they have to provoke Jon if it turns not to be Ramsay? I settled on Ramsay and only half entertained other options (because I'm sick of conspiracies lol) but re reading it how would Ramsay know about Val and the babe? You know, even if Ramsay did torture Mance and/or the spearwives that just seems like weird information to extract from them, no?

[Hot π]

I think it was Mance, with assistance from Theon. Based on the contents of the letter, I am certain it wasn't Ramsay.

[Tyrell_like_Squirrel]

 

Well obviously he's lying about some of it.

 

So how does he know about "the magic sword?" Or Melisandre for that matter? He knows things about Stannis that he couldn't possibly know, or at least has not demonstrated knowledge of prior to this letter.

 

And if Stannis is dead, then what's the point of Martin keeping him alive, as we've seen from TWOW chapter? Narratively speaking, how does Ramsay winning the battle of ice, killing Mance and crew, and provoking Jon & the night's watch advance the story?

 

What was the narrative point of building up this battle between Stannis and the Boltons if it's just going to end in an easy Bolton victory achieved off screen when we have a POV in that vicinity? Why bring Mance back only to torture and kill him without having achieved anything notable, except saving Jeyne Poole? If he's defeated Stannis, then why doesn't he have Reek in captivity?

 

For me, it doesn't make any sense for Ramsay to have written the letter. He knows things he could only know by completely destroying Stannis and crew, but evidence suggests that Stannis hasn't been defeated yet, if at all. And it makes no narrative sense for Stannis and the northern lords to be defeated off screen at the end of ADWD, only to come back to them in a POV chapter in TWOW. Martin doesn't backtrack after giving plot points away.

[Prince Lou of House Reed]

I hope its Ramsay because I fucking love the letter, the drama it causes and that the Boltons might attack the NW reading it for the first time was so intense! It could be Mance but damn what a let down after Jon fucking saved the wildlings and got stabbed for it by his own men. Fuck Mance then if that's true. Also the reek mention and signing trueborn son really sticks out. Only Ramsay loves saying that shit his inferiority complex always makes me laugh pooe bastard Ramsay sorry another bastard decreed that too lol.

[Jana B.]

Ramsey. I can imagine him doin such stuff.

[bent branch]

I went back and forth with this as well; was it Ramsay, could it have been someone else, who has all the information provided, what reason would they have to provoke Jon if it turns not to be Ramsay? I settled on Ramsay and only half entertained other options (because I'm sick of conspiracies lol) but re reading it how would Ramsay know about Val and the babe? You know, even if Ramsay did torture Mance and/or the spearwives that just seems like weird information to extract from them, no?

 

 

 

So how does he know about "the magic sword?" Or Melisandre for that matter? He knows things about Stannis that he couldn't possibly know, or at least has not demonstrated knowledge of prior to this letter.

 

 

The answer to how Ramsay knows about Val, the sword and Melisandre is all contained in this one scene. This is where Stannis lets in the first group of Wildlings, the group that all the spearwives come from (ADWD - Chapter 10):

 

He is stone and she is flame. The king's eyes were blue bruises, sunk deep in a hollow face. He wore grey plate, a fur-trimmed cloak of cloth-of-gold flowing from his broad shoulders. His breastplate had a flaming heart inlaid above his own. Girding his brows was a red-gold crown with points like twisting flames. Val stood beside him, tall and fair. They had crowned her with a simple circlet of dark bronze, yet she looked more regal in bronze than Stannis did in gold. Her eyes were grey and fearless, unflinching. Beneath an ermine cloak, she wore white and gold. Her honey-blond hair had been done up in a thick braid that hung over her right shoulder to her waist. The chill in the air had put color in her cheeks.

 

Lady Melisandre wore no crown, but every man there knew that she was Stannis Baratheon's real queen, not the homely woman he had left to shiver at Eastwatch-by-the-Sea. Talk was, the the king did not mean to send for Queen Selyse and their daughter until the Nightfort was ready for habitation. Jon felt sorry for them. The Wall offered few of the comforts that southron ladies and little highborn girls were used to, and the Nightfort offered none. That was a grim place, even in the best of times.

 

...Stannis Baratheon drew Lightbringer.

 

The sword glowed red and yellow and orange, alive with light. Jon had seen the show before...but not like this, never like this. Lightbringer was the sun made steel. When Stannis raised the blade above his head, men had to turn their heads or cover their eyes. Horses shied, and one threw his rider. The blaze in the fire pit seemed to shrink before this storm of light, like a small dog cowering before a larger one. The Wall itselt turned red and pink and orange, as waves of color danced across the ice. Is this the power of king's blood?

 

"Westeros has but one king," said Stannis. His voice rang harsh, with none of Melisandre's music. "With this sword I defend my subjects and destroy those who menace them. Bend the knee, and I promise you food, land, and justice. Kneel and live. Or go and die. The choice is yours." He slipped Lightbringer into its scabbard, and the world darkened once again, as if the sun had gone behind a cloud. "Open the gates."

 

 

Every single one of the spearwives witnessed this scene. They saw Val, Melisandre, Stannis and Lightbringer. They would have learned about Mance's son from Mance himself. They would have heard the gossip about Selyse and Shireen. There is nothing that referenced the people at the Wall that Ramsay couldn't have learned from just one of the spearwives. The only spearwife that we can be almost positive that was captured was Frenya (the only other possible outcome for Frenya was death). That the letter has names for practically none of the people is a strong indication that Ramsay got his information from a spearwife, because they only saw these people at the spectacle performed when they were let through the Wall. They weren't told who these people were. So the fact that these people were described rather than referenced by name indicates the information comes from a spearwife. I doubt they captured Mance and the other four spearwives, but that speculation is for another thread.

[Tolsimir]

I think it's Mance.

[aryagonnakill#2]

^Tolsimir, If you think that, would you care to explain how he did so?  I always ask anyone who says Mance, and no 1 ever answers.  There are an awful lot of problems you have to work around and I would love it if just once someone who said Mance could come up with a plausible way that happened.

[Minuteman]

If Ramsay captured one of the washerwomen, for example the one doing battle on the bridge when Theon and Jeyne jumped, and flayed her she would likely spill everything. What would Ramsay learn? That Mel (the Red Whore) used magic to make it appear that Mance was burned but he wasn't. Mance instead was sent on a mission by Mel with Jon's knowledge to wrest his sister fromRamsay and bring her back to him. Stannis has his wife and daughter at the Wall (though this would be well known). Stannis has a magic sword that glows like the sun (he unsheathed it when the LoB was burned to awe the Wildlings). And that Theon had helped them escape. She would not know that one of the washerwomen was killed and her body went over the battlement (not, presumably, to be recovered) so, like the letter, there is still the mention of six women and six warm cloaks despite only five actually, potentially being available. She also could not know that Theon and Jeyne went to Stannis, that Stannis has a prominent prisoner (Asha Greyjoy, King Balon's only daughter and Theon's sister) nor that the Iron Banker was with Stannis. But then the letter doesn't mention any of those things either (which you would expect it to if Stannis was in fact defeated). And, icing on the cake, the letter was brought by raven which means that it took either a maester or one with maester training or one with access to the same to send it. To me this all sounds like it could only be Ramsay. But consider some of the alternatives:

 

(1) Stannis sent it to trick Jon into joining him. Stannis, however, is very unemotional and doesn't seem to understand emotions. He is reserved, frequently says the socially incorrect thing, and cannot communicate with women. He can obviously out think his opponents but emotional manipualtion to me seems to be completely foreign to him. I do not see how he possibly could have authored the Pink Letter in a play on Jon's emotion to get him to act the way he did. It is simply alien to his mind.

(2) Mance Rayder. Yes he can manipulate people quite well. But he was wrong about Jon before and now we expect that he could pull off such a master stroke requiring intimate knowledge of Jon's mind and behaviour and he had learned all of this despite little to no interaction with Jon since he turned his cloak to black. And based on this he risks his entire plan and his life that Jon will react in one specific way. Seems totally illogical to me.

(3) Jon was in on it and it is some secret code. Why then is Jon rounding up the NW and the Wildlings for Hardhomme? The letter comes moments before he was due to set off so the timing would be impossibly coincident. Ah, but Mel could have seen it in the flames. But Jon told Mel that everything that she predicted has been false at which Mel replied that she may be flawed as interpreter but the visions are true. Regardless, Jon has no faith in her so would never believe her.

(4) Mel wrote it. Yet Jon is even more of a mystery to her than he is to Stannis. So I don't see Mel being able to pull of the manipulation. But she saw it in the flames? The only thing she seems to see in the flames is "dagers in the dark" and urges Jon to keep Ghost around him (which he ignores much to his detriment). So I don't think Mel is viable either.

(5) Any other minor character. Too little known. If you want to say Barbrey sent it, or Manderly, or anyone, then prepare to accept the Hound sent it, or Littlefinger, or a wighted Tywin Lannister.

 

So I'll give (1) or (2) as possible but very unlikely imho. To me it seems Ramsay is the far and away the most probable.

[aryagonnakill#2]

^Yes, your scenario of a Ramsay letter is perfect and completely uncomplicated, and all I'm saying is such a scenario does not exist for Mance or anyone else.  Just in sending the letter, you need to know which Raven will fly to what destination, and you have to be able to actually write, which we have no indication or reason to believe Mance can do, he was a ranger at the shadow tower not the Lord Commanders steward and even maester Aemons steward could not read or write.  So Mance would have needed to have taken the maester hostage to do all this, and gone with him to the rookery to ensure it was done properly, and even then the maester could have sent the wrong raven if he wanted to.  

[devilish]

The letter is clearly provocative and lacks structure + depth. However I dont see that as enough proof not to blame it on Ramsay. First of all its not as if Mance was born under a rock at the frost fangs. He is a former night watch himself and he should know how the North call the nights watch and whose Stannis is. Secondly the letter was sealed with pink sealed wax. That's something difficult to come by especially in the middle of a fight. 

 

I think that Ramsey was just pissed off of having lost Reek and his bride and wanted Jon Snow to act foolishly and fight. Jon was a bastard but he still had Stark's blood in him. He's also a warrior and could rely on the wildlings as an army. The Boltons would be better off if they provoked him to war and have him killed early rather than wait for 3-4 bannermen to fight the war on his behalf.

[caravaggio]

I just don't see why Ramsey would want Jon to ride to Winterfell.

 

If Ramsey has defeated Stannis, would ti not make more sense for him to launch a surprise attack on Castle Black?

 

If Ramsey hasn't  defeated Stannis, it wouldn't make sense to also have Jon to worry about.

 

 

All the other possible authors have better reason to want Jon to ride south, it doesn't seem to me that Ramsey has any.

[Minuteman]

I just don't see why Ramsey would want Jon to ride to Winterfell.

 

If Ramsey has defeated Stannis, would ti not make more sense for him to launch a surprise attack on Castle Black?

 

If Ramsey hasn't  defeated Stannis, it wouldn't make sense to also have Jon to worry about.

 

 

All the other possible authors have better reason to want Jon to ride south, it doesn't seem to me that Ramsey has any.

Ramsey had no idea that Jon would react the way he did. Jon did nothing when: (1) the man he believed to be his father was killed, (2) Bran and Rickon were believed murdered by Theon, (3) Sansa was married to Tyrion, (4) Robb, Cat, and many of the northern lords were murdered at the Red Wedding, and (5) Stannis became bogged down in snow with his starving army. Why would he (or anyone) expect that Jon would react to the supposed defeat of Stannis and a taunting threat by organizing the Wildlings into an army and personally lead them against Winterfell?  It is out of character for Jon. And there is nothing in the text to suggest that Ramsey is a particularly shrewd judge of character.

[Jasta11]

i seem to recall that the Winds chapter takes place before the final wall chapter

 

It is to assume that one of Mance's hand-picked retinue would spill all the beans about what is up at the Wall, including details regarding Mance's family and how precisely to anger Jon, so quickly. The Boltons are good torturers, but not mind readers.

 

Because whoever wrote the letter knew Jon. To me that is beyond doubt. It pushes almost literally all his buttons, all it needs is ''PS, Ned sucks and was a traitor'' line. It's quasi masterful emotional manipulation. Now, Ramsay is good at manipulating, but there is no way he has access to all the information required. If you ask me only Mance or Stannis (through questioning Theon) has, and Stannis is stil la bit of a stretch. My money is on Mance if only because only him realistically has access to all the required information and knows Jon like basically no other character in the story.