The Pact of Ice and Fire and what it might actually mean

[AlaskanSandman]

Maybe he settled for a Blackwood in trade for those eggs??? If Blackwood blood holds part of the key needed to control dragons (skinchanging), then maybe Cregan thought he got everything he needed. While really still missing a piece, the Dayne blood line. Probably the side needed for hatching. Daynes play a huge part and i believe Dany's chromosomes to be Blackwood X and Dayne X as ive explained before.

I do believe that Bran saw a dragon break loose from the crypts of winterfell.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

Maybe he settled for a Blackwood in trade for those eggs??? If Blackwood blood holds part of the key needed to control dragons (skinchanging), then maybe Cregan thought he got everything he needed. While really still missing a piece, the Dayne blood line. Probably the side needed for hatching. Daynes play a huge part and i believe Dany's chromosomes to be Blackwood X and Dayne X as ive explained before.

I do believe that Bran saw a dragon break loose from the crypts of winterfell.

I do not assume that Cregan wanted these eggs for selfish reasons. My idea here is that he never planned to marry a Targ in the first place. He wanted his people to be free to go South and he wanted to make sure the dragons survive. He did not really achieve the latter, but he at least made sure there are well-tended eggs at a safe place in his territory. I think that nobody understood what Cregan got for helping Rhaenyra so they just began to invent things, like a Targ bride.

[AlaskanSandman]

I do not assume that Cregan wanted these eggs for selfish reasons. My idea here is that he never planned to marry a Targ in the first place. He wanted his people to be free to go South and he wanted to make sure the dragons survive. He did not really achieve the latter, but he at least made sure there are well-tended eggs at a safe place in his territory. I think that nobody understood what Cregan got for helping Rhaenyra so the just invented things, like a Targ bride.

Hmmm, quite possible.

Seeing as the Maesters control ravens, which ive already linked to a bunch of people but either way more importantly, they control information and the birds/watchers of Westeros. 

Further more, they have Glass candles that now work. Why they had 3 in the first place in a mystery. Yet either way, they control another tool for communicating and seeing across the realm.

I cant bring my self to trust them by any means, the Maesters. So any questioning of them and what they're telling us, im totally open to.

[Lord Varys]

I don't think Aegon III and his sisters would even have known about those dragons around the time Cregan came south in 131 AC since nobody would have informed them on what had transpired at Winterfell with Jace in detail. Mushroom is only writing (or rather: dictating) his Testimony decades later, after his own retirement as court jester. But it is evident that Mushroom is still in service of the Targaryens when Aegon III comes of age in 136 AC.

In that sense it is very unlikely that Aegon III and Viserys even knew about those dragon eggs in Winterfell - and without the Starks having Targaryen blood they wouldn't have had a reason to even care if they had known.

Cregan Stark apparently reaped a lot of rewards for his support of Rhaenyra and Aegon III, most likely other favors the Iron Throne could grant besides a Targaryen bride, for instance gold, coin, tax exceptions on certain goods, more independence from the oversight of the Crown officials, etc.

As to the Green Men:

I just don't see a good reason why Addam Velaryon should hang out with them. But I've a rather elaborate theory about Prince Daemon joining them if he survived the Battle Above the Gods Eye. The man chose the site for his fight with Aemond (Harrenhal), he lured Vhagar above the lake, and he clearly knew that he was intending to jump on Vhagar's back to deal with Aemond personally. Considering that it doesn't seem likely he joined Nettles up in the Mountains of the Moon (no reports about the fire witch and her dragon residing there with some old guy) I'm much more inclined to believe that he washed up on the Isle of Faces/deliberately swan there if he survived the fall into the lake. Considering that the Green Men either are immortal or at least have a very long lifespan (considering that there are no reports of them ever leaving the island to recruit new people).

If that's the case then Prince Daemon could actually pop up in the main series as a Green Man - which wouldn't be as cheesy as it sounds on second glance considering that George has already sort of confirmed that the Isle of Faces and the Green Men will come to the fore/show up at one point - and why not have the character introducing them a (sort of) familiar face rather than some new and unknown sorcerer dude. He pretty much did the same thing with the three-eyed crow and Bloodraven.

If Addam Velaryon really visited the island - and I guess all people might have as evidence for that would be him and Seasmoke hanging out in the neighborhood, being seen circling the Gods Eye or even landing on the isle - this could very well be connected to Prince Daemon's survival. But then the knowledge about that might very well have died with him at Tumbleton.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

I don't think Aegon III and his sisters would even have known about those dragons around the time Cregan came south in 131 AC since nobody would have informed them on what had transpired at Winterfell with Jace in detail. Mushroom is only writing (or rather: dictating) his Testimony decades later, after his own retirement as court jester. But it is evident that Mushroom is still in service of the Targaryens when Aegon III comes of age in 136 AC.

In that sense it is very unlikely that Aegon III and Viserys even knew about those dragon eggs in Winterfell - and without the Starks having Targaryen blood they wouldn't have had a reason to even care if they had known.

Cregan Stark apparently reaped a lot of rewards for his support of Rhaenyra and Aegon III, most likely other favors the Iron Throne could grant besides a Targaryen bride, for instance gold, coin, tax exceptions on certain goods, more independence from the oversight of the Crown officials, etc.

As to the Green Men:

I just don't see a good reason why Addam Velaryon should hang out with them. But I've a rather elaborate theory about Prince Daemon joining them if he survived the Battle Above the Gods Eye. The man chose the site for his fight with Aemond (Harrenhal), he lured Vhagar above the lake, and he clearly knew that he was intending to jump on Vhagar's back to deal with Aemond personally. Considering that it doesn't seem likely he joined Nettles up in the Mountains of the Moon (no reports about the fire witch and her dragon residing there with some old guy) I'm much more inclined to believe that he washed up on the Isle of Faces/deliberately swan there if he survived the fall into the lake. Considering that the Green Men either are immortal or at least have a very long lifespan (considering that there are no reports of them ever leaving the island to recruit new people).

If that's the case then Prince Daemon could actually pop up in the main series as a Green Man - which wouldn't be as cheesy as it sounds on second glance considering that George has already sort of confirmed that the Isle of Faces and the Green Men will come to the fore/show up at one point - and why not have the character introducing them a (sort of) familiar face rather than some new and unknown sorcerer dude. He pretty much did the same thing with the three-eyed crow and Bloodraven.

If Addam Velaryon really visited the island - and I guess all people might have as evidence for that would be him and Seasmoke hanging out in the neighborhood, being seen circling the Gods Eye or even landing on the isle - this could very well be connected to Prince Daemon's survival. But then the knowledge about that might very well have died with him at Tumbleton.

I think both ideas fit together very well. I think that the Green Man and whoever was in league with them around the Dance of the Dragons was basically alright with dragon eggs in Winterdell instead of live dragons. Had they hatched them in Winterfell - if they would have been able to that is - it would have become common knowledge and most likely would have meant a new war, wouldn't it? So they settled for keeping those eyes hidden in Winterfell until they tome came when they would be needed.

The most important point for me here is that I think that the Green Men and with them the Children round Bloodraven's cave have interacted with certain houses and factions over the centuries. I think they mostly interacted with certain families: Targaryen, Stark, Blackwood and Reed being my best guesses. This might or might not be a relatively big conspiracy. I think it is sufficient to assume that the Green Men and the Children North of the Wall might have stayed in contact with certain individuals and contacted others as they saw fit only sporadically. Addam Velaryon meeting them might then have been no more than one instance of someone among the blacks contacting the Green Men among many others that didn't become public knowledge, probably Corlys Velaryon.

[Lord Varys]

Well, if the Green Men are up to something, they obviously aren't doing whatever they do out in the open. Considering that they seem to stay on their isle, effectively doing nothing. For instance, a Green Man showing up at Robert's court prior to his death could have made a difference in regards whether those creatures from fairy-tales aren't real. If such a guy had warned people about the Others things might have been different - even more if such a Green Man had showed up at Winterfell before Ned decided to go south.

If we go with the assumption that the Green Men are enemies of the Others - which I'd do - and if they are sort of preparing things for the new big war with them, then not trying to prevent that the Targaryens killed most of their dragons during the Dance doesn't make much sense to me. Twenty dragons (possibly even thirty or forty by the time of the series) would sure as hell being a huge asset in the war against the Others.

Perhaps they are sort of preparing a trap for the Others, tricking them into attacking by making it appear they could win because the dragons are all dead and stuff. But that would be a really subtle and convoluted plan.

Saving dragon eggs for later would be a risky move in any case considering that a hatchling or young dragon certainly wouldn't be much of a match for the Others. The size Drogon is now I'd not wager in his favor if he is confronting the Others full force.

I'm also not so sure the Green Men or the Children would be particularly interest in human royalty or nobility. They might be interested in certain bloodlines due to their magical potential but whether those people are born on the right or the wrong side of the blanket wouldn't matter to them at all.

[aryagonnakill#2]

The biggest issue with this theory, which I have not seen anyone address is that Mushroom does not talk about eggs being part of a deal, nor does he talk about them being given to the Starks, he said the dragon laid eggs.  If the Targs could simply make their dragons lay eggs they would have done it all the time, they didn't.  They actually celebrated when 1 of their dragons laid eggs because it was really important to them.  The concept that they could have on this occasion simply induced the dragon to lay eggs as part of a deal seems to be completely invented rather than taken from the story.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

Well, if the Green Men are up to something, they obviously aren't doing whatever they do out in the open. Considering that they seem to stay on their isle, effectively doing nothing. For instance, a Green Man showing up at Robert's court prior to his death could have made a difference in regards whether those creatures from fairy-tales aren't real. If such a guy had warned people about the Others things might have been different - even more if such a Green Man had showed up at Winterfell before Ned decided to go south.

If we go with the assumption that the Green Men are enemies of the Others - which I'd do - and if they are sort of preparing things for the new big war with them, then not trying to prevent that the Targaryens killed most of their dragons during the Dance doesn't make much sense to me. Twenty dragons (possibly even thirty or forty by the time of the series) would sure as hell being a huge asset in the war against the Others.

Perhaps they are sort of preparing a trap for the Others, tricking them into attacking by making it appear they could win because the dragons are all dead and stuff. But that would be a really subtle and convoluted plan.

Saving dragon eggs for later would be a risky move in any case considering that a hatchling or young dragon certainly wouldn't be much of a match for the Others. The size Drogon is now I'd not wager in his favor if he is confronting the Others full force.

I'm also not so sure the Green Men or the Children would be particularly interest in human royalty or nobility. They might be interested in certain bloodlines due to their magical potential but whether those people are born on the right or the wrong side of the blanket wouldn't matter to them at all.

I agree on most of what you said. They certainly don't care for nobility. But they probably do care for blood and probably also for believe in the Old Gods. Approaching somebody who is a strong believer in the Seven with a maester at his side that he trusts more than anybody else would obviously be a problem.

The Problem with the hatching is indeed serious. Either they have a plan or the were probably really taken aback by the demise of House Targaryen. I assume that Bloodraven has been in contact with Aemon all along and Aemon has been in contact with Rhaegar all along, so I guess Children beyond the Wall and Green Men were probably counting on Rhaegar at that point. Who is to say, by the way, that Dany's eggs didn't come via Winterfell in the first place?

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

The biggest issue with this theory, which I have not seen anyone address is that Mushroom does not talk about eggs being part of a deal, nor does he talk about them being given to the Starks, he said the dragon laid eggs.  If the Targs could simply make their dragons lay eggs they would have done it all the time, they didn't.  They actually celebrated when 1 of their dragons laid eggs because it was really important to them.  The concept that they could have on this occasion simply induced the dragon to lay eggs as part of a deal seems to be completely invented rather than taken from the story.

There might be several solutions for that. Winterfell is a special place. It seems to be the place in which to defeat winter. Probably there is some Old-Gods-magic going on. Or it's simply the volcanic activity in Winterfell that made Vermax lay eggs. After all, Valyria had the same volcanic activity as I point out in the article. That would explain why the Valyrians of old seemed to have many more dragons than House Targaryen as kings of Westeros were ever able to have.

[Ser Greggor the Baked]

1. We don't know. I think it may be possible, especially if it should turn out that George thinks Jon Snow - or any other Targaryen-blooded person in the North (Stannis, Shireen) - needs a dragon much sooner than Dany and her gang can realistically reach Westeros and the Wall. If Vermax laid any eggs then Jace may have decided to interpret this whole thing as a divine sign that Cregan would indeed marry a Targaryen girl, leaving the eggs there so that one day their children might become dragonriders, too.

Finding eggs around Westeros would be cool, but dragons take a few years to grow large enough to be helpful. Everything is coming to a head now, I can not see the rest of ASOIAF moving slow enough to grow some new dragons. Any new dragon is going to have to be coming out of some sort of coma or have been growing up without any of the POV characters knowing (maybe Bran knows...). 

[Lord Varys]

The idea with a dragon egg at Winterfell is that it has already hatched, back during the burning of Winterfell at the end of ACoK. Summer saw that weird winged snake-like thing that might have been a dragon (or nothing at all). Sure, the hatchling would be a little smaller than Dany's dragons, but not all that much. Keep in mind that many people were killed and burned during Ramsay's slaughter, and conveniently we know that dragons feed on cooked/burned meet. The idea would be that this dragon gorged himself on some of the corpses until it it grew large enough to take wing and fly away. Considering that the North is as scarcely populated as it is it might have gone unnoticed to this day. And who knows - perhaps dragon feasting on human flesh grow a lot quicker and larger than dragons feasting on other other animal meat?

The 'dragon at Winterfell' theory goes a long way back, and my eyebrows really went up when I read that about Vermax's eggs. There never was any reason to assume that a dragon egg actually was at Winterfell (aside from the far-fetched idea that one of the five dragons Jaehaerys I took with him to Winterfell left an egg there for some unknown reason) but George really fanned those flames with the whole Jace-Vermax story there.

Of the missing dragons I think there is a not-so-bad chance that the Cannibal will show up in the main series eventually. George has introduced this huge black dragon who feeds on dragons yet he made no impact during the Dance or at a different point in history. That is very strange. You don't have to be very smart to realize that the Cannibal would have been an ideal and very nasty opponent to Dany's growing dragons if there ever was a second Dance of the Dance (which is supposed to come in the near future).

And what is supposed to have happened to that dragon? He disappeared at the end of the Dance. Where did he go? If he had been claimed by someone, historians would know because that person would have sure as hell tried to take the Iron Throne. If he had been killed by dragonslayer, that person - or the persons knowing about his attempt - would have bragged about it. There is a small chance that the Cannibal's lair in the Dragonmount collapsed and crushed him, but that's a very remote possibility. Grey Ghost's lair was unknown on Dragonstone, but the lairs of both Sheepstealer and the Cannibal were known, and therefore people would eventually have figured out what had happened. Just as his carcass would have been found if he had died of old age or something like that.

My guess is that he might still be on Dragonstone, in hibernation or suspended animation or something like that, eventually be woken up by something (or someone).

The problem with the Green Men during the Dance is that they did not seem to do anything to prevent the bloodshed - a bloodshed that nearly extinguished the dragons as well as the Targaryen bloodline. I really can't see Addam Velaryon speaking to living legends (the Green Men) and then just continuing with the Dance and dying at Tumbleton. 

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

 

The problem with the Green Men during the Dance is that they did not seem to do anything to prevent the bloodshed - a bloodshed that nearly extinguished the dragons as well as the Targaryen bloodline. I really can't see Addam Velaryon speaking to living legends (the Green Men) and then just continuing with the Dance and dying at Tumbleton. 

Well, that depends, I think. What would you have had the Green Men do? I guess they either are Greenseer or work with the Greenseer(s). Maybe they knew that there was no way to go on without the Dragonbane on the throne and dragons either extinct or in hiding for a while. They are all about the long game. People who know parts of the future are strange and do things other people would not do, right?

[Ponzi Scheme]

It was a marriage pact, IIRC.  Rhaenyra's envoy was a young man, so who knows what else he might have agreed to in the heat of the moment.  He might have foolishly agreed to grant the north independence for their support.  If it was ever put into writing it could bind Daenerys and Aegon to go along with it since Cregan Stark supported the blacks during the Dance.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

It was a marriage pact, IIRC.  Rhaenyra's envoy was a young man, so who knows what else he might have agreed to in the heat of the moment.  He might have foolishly agreed to grant the north independence for their support.  If it was ever put into writing it could bind Daenerys and Aegon to go along with it since Cregan Stark supported the blacks during the Dance.

Well, I guess not. Cregan Stark basically had the realm under his control when the Dance was over. But he decided to resign his position as Hand of the King after setting things straight as he saw fit. For all we know he could simply have given the North independence.

[Lord Varys]

Not really. He cannot serve as Hand and at the same time grant half the Realm to himself. That wouldn't work regardless how powerful he thought he was. The day he tried something like that would be his last day.

[AlaskanSandman]

 

 

[AlaskanSandman]

Ok, it just totally fudged my post.

Am i seriously the only one seeing a tie between the Green Men and the Merling King? I need to find another way to try and explain this i guess. 

And Lord Varys, having a dragon does't allow one to take the Iron Throne, not with out an army. Otherwise i would think Dany is already set.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

Not really. He cannot serve as Hand and at the same time grant half the Realm to himself. That wouldn't work regardless how powerful he thought he was. The day he tried something like that would be his last day.

I have to disagree. In a time of peace you would be right, but not after winning a devastating war. Who would have had the power to oppose, had he claimed that independence was his price for joining the war?

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

Ok, it just totally fudged my post.

Am i seriously the only one seeing a tie between the Green Men and the Merling King? I need to find another way to try and explain this i guess. 

And Lord Varys, having a dragon does't allow one to take the Iron Throne, not with out an army. Otherwise i would think Dany is already set.

In my book the existence of a true core to the story of the Merling King depends on there being a third magical faction, so to speak. I am not totally opposed to the idea of there being a truth to the guy, but I don't know where he might fit it.

[Lord Varys]

The other Blacks and Greens at court, presumably. The Realm was devastated, yes, but Johanna Lannister still found enough to put down Dalton Greyjoy for good, so I'd not bet all that much in a self-proclaimed King Cregan. Not to mention that it was the wrong season for that. Winter had begun in 130 AC, and the North most likely would have suffered the most during the winter. Cregan even intended for some of his older men to die bravely in battle rather than return back home to be additional mouths during the winter, so I clearly don't see him being in a position to secede from the Iron Throne. Not to mention that he had no intention of doing so. If he wanted that, he could have stayed out of the Dance entirely.