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What if the north had fleets for both coasts


Tarellen

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3 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

 The Navy was not ordered by Robb but authorized by Bran and Rodrik when both the Umbers and Manderlys requested funds for more boats and he made them work together.

We have no idea how many or few of the Manderly troops Wyman sent, though personally I think it was around 1/3rd.

The lack of Seagard Navy is not down to the location of Wood (there would be smaller  but the cost of a full time crew to maintain those boats. There would be many (smaller) forests located in the Riverlands, perhaps even in the Mallister lands,so getting the wood to build those ships is not the problem.  Arya actually encounters quite a few forests while she is wandering the Riverlands.

Here farmland gave way to forest, the villages and holdfasts were smaller and farther apart, the hills higher and the valleys deeper.

 

I doubt that. A Navy large enough to beat the Iron fleet is going to be hugely expensive and pretty pointless for the East coast.

You are right on the Bran and Rickon thing. I knew Manderly had a fleet but forgot who ordered it and assumed Robb. It's mentioned that the Manderly's sent 2000 men in the chapter where Cat gets to Moat Cailin.

Yes there are woods in the Riverlands. Have a look on a map of Westeros and it shows them south of the Red Fork. There are undoubtedly trees around Seaguard, but it would be easier to built a fleet if there was a larger forest/wood right on your doorstep.

A navy on the east coast wouldn't need to beat the Iron Fleet for the scenario described above. The Iron Fleet isn't the Ironborn's full naval power strength, it's there fastest longboats. They number one hundred and all went to Moat Cailin with Vic. Theon had one ship, and Asha had thirty I believe. Easy win against Theon, and they could; depending on conditions, commander's etc; defeat Asha or at least stall her long enough for Deepwood to raise the defense's a little and send an earlier warning. In the books, the first they know of a Greyjoy invasion is the siege of Torrhen's Square. They send Benfred Tallhart to the Stony Shore to deal with what they think is a small band of random raiders. Then Tallhart was drowned and he couldn't warn anyone. If they knew it was Ironborn, they might well have used a larger force immediately. 2500 clansmen spring to mind.

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28 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

You are right on the Bran and Rickon thing. I knew Manderly had a fleet but forgot who ordered it and assumed Robb. It's mentioned that the Manderly's sent 2000 men in the chapter where Cat gets to Moat Cailin.

1500

28 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Yes there are woods in the Riverlands. Have a look on a map of Westeros and it shows them south of the Red Fork. There are undoubtedly trees around Seaguard, but it would be easier to built a fleet if there was a larger forest/wood right on your doorstep.

Sure, a little easier. But that is not the reason for the size of their naval strength. The Srormlands has the most wood in the South yet fewer ships than the Reach, Crownlands, Westerlands and possibly the Vale. Wood is not the issue.

28 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

A navy on the east coast wouldn't need to beat the Iron Fleet for the scenario described above. The Iron Fleet isn't the Ironborn's full naval power strength, it's there fastest longboats. They number one hundred and all went to Moat Cailin with Vic.

And why do you think that is? Obviously they send a smaller force to the Stony Shore and Deepwood Motte  as they know the North has few ships there. Unless this Navy your suggesting is a secret Navy?

28 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Theon had one ship, and Asha had thirty I believe. Easy win against Theon, and they could;

8 with Theon. But you are missing the point, if the North suddenly has a Navy then the Ironborn slightly change their strategy.  They dont send the same amount of boats and leave the majority of the Iron Fleet doing zip.

28 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

 

They send Benfred Tallhart to the Stony Shore to deal with what they think is a small band of random raiders. Then Tallhart was drowned and he couldn't warn anyone. If they knew it was Ironborn, they might well have used a larger force immediately.

Possibly, but then maintaining that kind of Navy and coastal army is expensive and not used for a very good reason.

The North has been united under one house for thousands of years and not all the Northern Lords have been idiots. They would have settled the coast with Lords and military if the resources were there. the fact they did not means the price was not worth while.

28 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

2500 clansmen spring to mind.

3,000 Clansmen, but they only came a force once Winter hit as many of them are not soldiers (we only have to look at Stannis and the Wildlings to see how imporrtant training and equipment are in battle despite numbers)  but North men sacrificing themselves because it is Winter. That is why we did not see them before Winter hit when Winterfell, Torrhens Square, Deepwood Motte and Moat Cailin were hit or when Rodrik complained he lacked the strnegth to stop the fighting in Hornwood.

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1200? Even more men for Manderly to have around White Harbour, and I doubt that it's a third of his men. Unless you mean his total strength is 4000 heavy horse and 1200 infantry, because that proportion makes no sense. The north seems to have 1/4 of it's forces mounted. That would give Manderly and his vassals too many men, I guess, so maybe a 2:1 or at least 1:1 infantry:horse ratio. Manderly has a lot of troops. There were already a few ships at Bear Keep (Alysanne Mormont crosses to aid Stannis at Deepwood) If they'd had a standing fleet up there the Iron Born either wouldn't have struck that far north, or sent more men, weakening Vic's forces at Moat Cailin. Given how valuable the Moat is compared to Deepwood or the Stony Shore, I'm inclined to believe the former. My scenario works there too.

2500 or 3000, or even 4k as I've heard mentioned isn't the point. The point is there are men that could be called up if needed. If Deepwood and Torrhen's (and thus Winterfell) were not taken then Rodrik could take his time and build up a sizable force to attack the Moat from the North. 1500 from Winterfell/Cerwyn, 1k Umber's, 1k Karstark's, a few thousand clansmen and a few thousand Manderly's; plus the Reed and Dustin forces- Vic had at most 5k men, and the Moat is easy to capture from the North.

The clansmen didn't come to help with Hornwood or Torrehn's Square because of time. Umber, Flint, Manderly and Karstark couldn't get men to Rodrik's force before it was slaughtered, because of time; like how Robb took at most 2/3's of the North's strength because he had to move fast.

The North clearly can maintain a standing navy, because King Brandon had a fleet. That mean's the North at least can support a navy. Manderly wouldn't build one if they couldn't support it.

@King Floki of the Ironborn Wyman mentions it to Davos during their meeting in the Wolf's Den. He may have been exaggerating, but it couldn't be by much. He couldn't exactly promise Stannis that "4,000 heavy horse will join you if you return Rickon" and then only bring less than 2/3's of that number at least.

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18 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

1200?

1500

18 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Even more men for Manderly to have around White Harbour, and I doubt that it's a third of his men.

Around 1,500 seems a decent estimate for a 1/3rd of his army. That would give him a larger army than the most powerful Riverland vassal (the Freys) and a similar amount to the most powerful vassal in the Vale (the Royces).

A 5k army makes him one of the most powerful Lords in Westeros.

18 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Unless you mean his total strength is 4000 heavy horse and 1200 infantry, because that proportion makes no sense.

Nope.

18 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

 Manderly has a lot of troops.

Which I have already said. Around 5k is a lot of troops. It consisted of Stannis' entire military from the Narrow Sea Vassals.

18 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

There were already a few ships at Bear Keep (Alysanne Mormont crosses to aid Stannis at Deepwood) If they'd had a standing fleet up there the Iron Born either wouldn't have struck that far north, or sent more men, weakening Vic's forces at Moat Cailin. Given how valuable the Moat is compared to Deepwood or the Stony Shore, I'm inclined to believe the former. My scenario works there too.

I am not sure the point you are trying to make here. Sorry.

 

18 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

2500 or 3000, or even 4k as I've heard mentioned isn't the point. The point is there are men that could be called up if needed. If Deepwood and Torrhen's (and thus Winterfell) were not taken then Rodrik could take his time and build up a sizable force to attack the Moat from the North.

Depends on what you mean as sizeable. Winterfell was taken and Rodrik called for support and could only raise 2k to rescue the Stark princes and retake the capital. Even when you add the 600 Ramsay brought to Winterfell I would still not call it sizable.

Notice that Robb never sends word for this 'sizeable force' to retake Moat Cailin even when he knows that many of the Ironborn have left for the Kings moot. His plan involved taking his entire Northern army, as well as the Freys, to deal with the Ironborn. He would not do this unless he had no other option.

 

18 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

 

1500 from Winterfell/Cerwyn, 1k Umber's, 1k Karstark's, a few thousand clansmen and a few thousand Manderly's; plus the Reed and Dustin forces- Vic had at most 5k men, and the Moat is easy to capture from the North.

So why did Robb not send word for them to do this? Why was he going home to deal with it himself?

18 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

The clansmen didn't come to help with Hornwood or Torrehn's Square because of time.

The nearby Mountain clans did not have time to send men but the much further away Flints, Manderlys, Hornwoods and Karstarks could? That makes no sense at all, sorry.

There is two months between Theon taking Winterfell and the battle with Rodrik.  Time enough to raise what is needed.

18 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

 

Umber, Flint, Manderly and Karstark couldn't get men to Rodrik's force before it was slaughtered, because of time; like how Robb took at most 2/3's of the North's strength because he had to move fast.

Umber were going to, or so Theon was told, but for some reason they turned back. But there was Karstark, Flint, Manderly and Hornwood men with Rodrik.

18 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

 

@King Floki of the Ironborn Wyman mentions it to Davos during their meeting in the Wolf's Den. He may have been exaggerating, but it couldn't be by much. He couldn't exactly promise Stannis that "4,000 heavy horse will join you if you return Rickon" and then only bring less than 2/3's of that number at least.

How did you jump to this conclusion?

There is simply no way, and I am going to emphatically stress this, NO WAY that Wyman has a remaining army that consists of that many Heavy Horse, not when he only sent 300 Cavalry with Robb and a few hundred in total to Winterfell when it was captured.

 

44 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

The North clearly can maintain a standing navy, because King Brandon had a fleet. That mean's the North at least can support a navy. Manderly wouldn't build one if they couldn't support it.

That is not clear at all for many reasons. First of all we don't know how large this navy was, how long ago the King Brandon was, how long this Navy was maintained for.

And obviously the independent North would have a greater need for a Navy than it did as part of a united Westeros as they would be facing far more Ironborn attacks and with little support from allies in the process. The cost would have been a necessity, even if it was a large drain. That cost becomes less of a necessity when part of a greater realm, attacks are less frequent and allies will help keep the peace with the Ironborn.

Wyman is building one now, and let us not forget that he went to Winterfell asking for the funds to build it, because Robb declared independence. An independent North would suddenly have to spend more on standing armies/navies to protect themselves (one of the main benefits of being part of Weteros) which means higher taxes for the Northern people and less men to work the fields.

But the absence of a Navy for so long seems to be a pragmatic reason, were the cost of maintaining it was not worth the benefits it would give.

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Manderly explicitly states that he has more heavy horse than any other northern lord (combined I believe). He definitely mentions the number four thousand. He only sent a few thousand to Robb because Ned told Cat to tell Wyman to secure the defense's of White Harbour and ensure they're well manned. White Harbour is a large city, and so he has much more men than the Frey's.

Manderly is the richest house in the north and controls the largest stretch of land, the only city and the main trade hub. Barrowtown and the surrounding territory has been estimated to raise about 4k. A city of White Harbour's size is at least double that.

There were some Flint's, Karstark's and so on at Winterfell, but not a whole lot. Those house's sent most of the men they could raise to Winterfell in Dance. It was mainly Cerwyn/Stark/Tallhart at Winterfell.

By sizable, I mean the forces in the North that have been confirmed. Manderly's men, the force from Winterfell, the Umber's, Karstark's, Bolton's and Clansmen. Dustin and Ryswell can burn the ships left in the Fever River as they did in the books.

Robb was going to take the Moat himself because it was more practical to use the 10k he already had than wait for another force to be pulled together. But that force could be raised if they had the time. If Theon didn't take Winterfell, they would have had that time.

If there was no need for a fleet in a united Westeros then why would the Lannister's and Tyrells keep a fleet. It'd be easier for them yeah, but according to your logic they wouldn't need them, so why bother. Same with the Ironborn really, and without raids as often as in the past, the Iron Islands aren't exactly wealthy.

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17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Manderly explicitly states that he has more heavy horse than any other northern lord (combined I believe).

No, not combined.

Even with the losses I have suffered, I still command more heavy horse than any other lord north of the Neck.

Which should not be that surprising considering he is definitely the Richest northern vassal, and possibly the most powerful vassal (it is between the Manderlys and Boltons) as well as being further South as we see how the Heavy Horse with Stannis deal with the Winter.

Having the most heavy Horse does not mean he has 4k, that seems an odd conclusion to jump to. Consider that one of the biggest supporters of Robb's war effort, the Karstarks, only supplied 300 horsemen from their 2,300 then it can be no surprise that the Manderlys have easily the most heavy horse.

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

 

He definitely mentions the number four thousand.

 Nope.

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

He only sent a few thousand to Robb because Ned told Cat to tell Wyman to secure the defense's of White Harbour and ensure they're well manned.

We know that Ned ordered that, we don't know that he kept so many men back for that reason or if he truly did keep that many men back. We simply have no idea about how many the Manderlys can raise, but going by the numbers that other realms most powerful Vassals can raise then 5kish seems like a fair amount.

Raising significantly more makes zero sense in considering that would make them more powerful than the Starks and the previous tenants of their lands rebelled against the Starks.

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

 

White Harbour is a large city, and so he has much more men than the Frey's.

We don't know that. The Freys rule smaller but more densely populated lands. We have no idea which Lord has the larger population.

 

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Manderly is the richest house in the north and controls the largest stretch of land, the only city and the main trade hub.

Yup, no one has denied this.

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Barrowtown and the surrounding territory has been estimated to raise about 4k. A city of White Harbour's size is at least double that.

Well no, we have no idea how many the Dustins can raise. There has actually been zero mentions of Dustin numbers throughout the series.

And medieval armies are not raised from cities but from lands. Cities are certainly richer, but that is because they have many more artisans and craftsmen then their farmlands equivalents.

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

There were some Flint's, Karstark's and so on at Winterfell, but not a whole lot.

I am not seeing your point. You first claimed there was none because there was not enough time. That is wrong as they were called, they just did not have many to spare. We know why Karstark sent so few men

"My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."

If the other Lords suffered the loss of manpower like the Karstarks, Umbers and Starks did then that would explain why so few were sent when Winterfell was captured.

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

 

Those house's sent most of the men they could raise to Winterfell in Dance. It was mainly Cerwyn/Stark/Tallhart at Winterfell.

Mostly untrained Stark teenagers (600), which makes sense they would provide the most being they should be the most powerful Lords in the North and are fighting on their own property. Cerwyns supplied 300, we have no idea how many the other Houses sent but given that it was 1,200 we can average it out at around 200 each.

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

By sizable, I mean the forces in the North that have been confirmed. Manderly's men, the force from Winterfell, the Umber's, Karstark's, Bolton's and Clansmen. Dustin and Ryswell can burn the ships left in the Fever River as they did in the books.

Sizeable is a little vague, I have no idea what you mean by it. One persons definition of that word could be completely different to another persons.

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Robb was going to take the Moat himself because it was more practical to use the 10k he already had than wait for another force to be pulled together.

No, it was not. That is a ridiculous idea. Stripping the Riverlands of the Northern and Frey military for a long campaign when there was a 60-70k army on the Riverland doorstep is hugely impractical.

Robb was taking that many men because he needed them to have a chance of winning. If there was 'sizeable' forces still in the North he would have utilized them at some point as would Rodrik. Neither did, which either means they are both idiots or there is not a great many soldiers left in the North.

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

 

But that force could be raised if they had the time. If Theon didn't take Winterfell, they would have had that time.

Rodrik waited for two months before attacking Winterfell. They had the time, the Norrthern Lords either did not have the men or did not care about the Stark plight.

the fact that the Wall was desperately calling for help for around a year and the Northern lords have completely ignored them suggests that there is not this great untapped military strength in the North.

Personally I'd say the North can raise around 35k.

20k of which Robb took North, 2k with Rodrik, 600 with Roose, 450 with Arnolf Karstark, -800ish old men and grey boys with the Umber uncles, 300 with Manderly and 3,000 Mountain Clan members (many of whom are untrained and poorly equipped)

 

That gives around 8k unaccounted for from the other Houses (including the Manderlys, Dustins and Ryswells). 8k may sound like a lot, but given the Norths huge size don't expect to see them all in one place.

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

If there was no need for a fleet in a united Westeros then why would the Lannister's and Tyrells keep a fleet.

They both have large cities and export goods (wine & gold) and import more luxuries while residing on the West coast were the biggest pirates in the World, the Ironborn, reside. There is no Northern port or any Northern exports that are anywhere near as valuable as from the Reach and Westerlands.

They are far, far richer than the North. They can afford the expense and given that a huge amount of the Westerlands population is on the coast it is a worthwhile expense.

 

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

 

It'd be easier for them yeah, but according to your logic they wouldn't need them, so why bother.

That is not my logic at all. It is all about being able to afford a service. Navies are not cheap, quite the opposite, and the North is not rich. Maintaining a Northern Navy, especially on the West Coast, would mean other areas of the North suffering. When it is the choice between more food bought in winter or protecting an Eastern coast with a very small population from the rare attack then it is obvious which one becomes the priority.

 

17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Same with the Ironborn really, and without raids as often as in the past, the Iron Islands aren't exactly wealthy.

The Ironborn is not a defensive Navy, like you are suggesting the North has. Many of the Ironborn are pirates, away from the Iron Islands for large periods of time earning money (often illegally). You are suggesting a Northern Navy to protect itself, not an attacking raiding fleet that is away from the Norths coast for large periods of time.

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17 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

No, not combined.

Even with the losses I have suffered, I still command more heavy horse than any other lord north of the Neck.

Which should not be that surprising considering he is definitely the Richest northern vassal, and possibly the most powerful vassal (it is between the Manderlys and Boltons) as well as being further South as we see how the Heavy Horse with Stannis deal with the Winter.

Having the most heavy Horse does not mean he has 4k, that seems an odd conclusion to jump to. Consider that one of the biggest supporters of Robb's war effort, the Karstarks, only supplied 300 horsemen from their 2,300 then it can be no surprise that the Manderlys have easily the most heavy horse.

 Nope.

We know that Ned ordered that, we don't know that he kept so many men back for that reason or if he truly did keep that many men back. We simply have no idea about how many the Manderlys can raise, but going by the numbers that other realms most powerful Vassals can raise then 5kish seems like a fair amount.

Raising significantly more makes zero sense in considering that would make them more powerful than the Starks and the previous tenants of their lands rebelled against the Starks.

We don't know that. The Freys rule smaller but more densely populated lands. We have no idea which Lord has the larger population.

 

Yup, no one has denied this.

Well no, we have no idea how many the Dustins can raise. There has actually been zero mentions of Dustin numbers throughout the series.

And medieval armies are not raised from cities but from lands. Cities are certainly richer, but that is because they have many more artisans and craftsmen then their farmlands equivalents.

I am not seeing your point. You first claimed there was none because there was not enough time. That is wrong as they were called, they just did not have many to spare. We know why Karstark sent so few men

"My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."

If the other Lords suffered the loss of manpower like the Karstarks, Umbers and Starks did then that would explain why so few were sent when Winterfell was captured.

Mostly untrained Stark teenagers (600), which makes sense they would provide the most being they should be the most powerful Lords in the North and are fighting on their own property. Cerwyns supplied 300, we have no idea how many the other Houses sent but given that it was 1,200 we can average it out at around 200 each.

Sizeable is a little vague, I have no idea what you mean by it. One persons definition of that word could be completely different to another persons.

No, it was not. That is a ridiculous idea. Stripping the Riverlands of the Northern and Frey military for a long campaign when there was a 60-70k army on the Riverland doorstep is hugely impractical.

Robb was taking that many men because he needed them to have a chance of winning. If there was 'sizeable' forces still in the North he would have utilized them at some point as would Rodrik. Neither did, which either means they are both idiots or there is not a great many soldiers left in the North.

Rodrik waited for two months before attacking Winterfell. They had the time, the Norrthern Lords either did not have the men or did not care about the Stark plight.

the fact that the Wall was desperately calling for help for around a year and the Northern lords have completely ignored them suggests that there is not this great untapped military strength in the North.

Personally I'd say the North can raise around 35k.

20k of which Robb took North, 2k with Rodrik, 600 with Roose, 450 with Arnolf Karstark, -800ish old men and grey boys with the Umber uncles, 300 with Manderly and 3,000 Mountain Clan members (many of whom are untrained and poorly equipped)

 

That gives around 8k unaccounted for from the other Houses (including the Manderlys, Dustins and Ryswells). 8k may sound like a lot, but given the Norths huge size don't expect to see them all in one place.

They both have large cities and export goods (wine & gold) and import more luxuries while residing on the West coast were the biggest pirates in the World, the Ironborn, reside. There is no Northern port or any Northern exports that are anywhere near as valuable as from the Reach and Westerlands.

They are far, far richer than the North. They can afford the expense and given that a huge amount of the Westerlands population is on the coast it is a worthwhile expense.

 

That is not my logic at all. It is all about being able to afford a service. Navies are not cheap, quite the opposite, and the North is not rich. Maintaining a Northern Navy, especially on the West Coast, would mean other areas of the North suffering. When it is the choice between more food bought in winter or protecting an Eastern coast with a very small population from the rare attack then it is obvious which one becomes the priority.

 

The Ironborn is not a defensive Navy, like you are suggesting the North has. Many of the Ironborn are pirates, away from the Iron Islands for large periods of time earning money (often illegally). You are suggesting a Northern Navy to protect itself, not an attacking raiding fleet that is away from the Norths coast for large periods of time.

Well the land around white harbor can support a city so how do you know Frey land is more densely populated? Also the western navy is small and only useful against raids. Let's say the Starks really want to protect the west coast and are subsidizing the western navy them selves. Also the western navy has to at times conscript fishing boats.

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8 minutes ago, Tarellen said:

Well the land around white harbor can support a city so how do you know Frey land is more densely populated?

The Riverlands is more densely populated than the North. That is canon. While the Manderlys lands might be larger they will be less densely populated than the Frey lands

We don't know that just the Manderly lands support White Harbor after all Kings Landing was in serious trouble when Renly cut off the food supply from the Rose Road.

8 minutes ago, Tarellen said:

Also the western navy is small and only useful against raids.

Exactly. Even the richest realm in Westeros don't go over board with something that is a pointless expenditure and they not only have the 3rd largest city in Westeros, but have a far bigger population living on the coast then the North and are closer.

The Westerlands could throw money at building a huge navy to compete with the Ironborn but it is clearly not worth the expense, this is a similar position to the Starks. Building a navy strong enough to defend against the Ironborn is not worth the expense to the Starks.

 

8 minutes ago, Tarellen said:

 

Let's say the Starks really want to protect the west coast and are subsidizing the western navy them selves. Also the western navy has to at times conscript fishing boats.

They would be subsidizing it to begin with.

 

What is more logical, that the Starks for at least the last three centuries were all too dumb to realize what a West coast Navy and Seagard equivalent would do for their defences or that they weighed up the cost against the practicality and came to the conclusion that it was not worth it? That the extra taxes were not worth it or those surplus funds could be better used for more important things such as helping to feed the North during Winter.

 

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