Does Harry the Heir even matter.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Remember that Littlefinger's plans would not include Daenerys or Aegon. He knows nothing about them, other than whatever reports may reach him via raven.

His plans would have focused on sowing division between the Lannister's and Tyrells and using that to increase the power of his own Northern alliance

 Aegon will now be a new factor he has to plan for, one which may serve his purposes even better.

[House Beaudreau]

26 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

sopport fAegon or Dany 

i dont think Sweetrobin will die, i think he will join Dany Visenya style

I like this right here... Sweetrobin is completely obsessed with the idea of flying. Sweetrobin the Dragonrider!

[Scorpion92]

I am sure that the whole Vale saga is Sansa's training ground to become this master of the game. I envision the endgame Sansa to resemble Cersei a lot, albeit much more cunning and smart, without Mad Queen's impulsiveness and stupidity. With Baelish as her tutor, I really see no one else standing in her way to become the endgame ruler of Westeros.

Now, where I see the Vale storyline going with Long Night at the door? I think mountain clans will unite under Timmett's leadership, who is half-Arryn himself by his mother, and then attack the Bloody Gate, and after that Gates of the Moon, at the very right moment, when avalanche from Giant's Lance will destroy Eyrie and Gates and most Vale nobility (thanks to sweetsunray's essays!). Timmett will personally slay his cousin Harry the Heir during the battle. 

Sansa will slay "the giant in the castle of snow" (Littlefinger) and escape this whole mess with Ser Shadrich Mad Mouse, Varys' agent, and be brought before Aegon and his camp and get involved in the games there (especially against Arianne Martell, Aegon's wife). Meanwhile, Timmett, conqueror of the Vale and raised in First Men customs, will meet with Lord Yohn Royce, whose armies were untouched by the natural disaster because he stayed at home in Runestone. Ysilla, widow of Mychel Redfort, will be offered in marriage pact to unite mountain clans and most powerful Vale nobility, who is First Men origin themselves and maybe a little more respected among clans than others. Maybe Timmett will marry Ysilla and adopt her name, the way Orys Baratheon adopted Argella's family banner and words, and be known as Timmett Royce, King of the Mountain and Vale. Tyrion promised them the Vale of Arryn after all, and I am sure it will happen.

With Vale under Timmett's rule, it will allow remaining Valemen to fight on Dany's side during second dance of the dragons, thanks to Tyrion's connection with mountain clans.

[Gamel]

11 hours ago, Walda said:

Yes, and while I don't know for sure the Westeros attitude to bigamy, it does seem the faith of the Seven at least would see a Harry-Sansa wedding as just that, especially if she comes out for it dressed in a Direwolf wedding cape. There would need to be a consultation with the High Septon, to set aside her first marriage before her second, at the very least. And this High Septon isn't likely to let such a golden opportunity pass him by. 

In medieval Europe, if you bribed the Pope well enough you could always find a way to cancel a marriage (a closed door during the ceremony was a valid cause for dissolution...)
 

But I seem to remember Sansa never consummated the marriage with the Imp, is the High Sparrow really required to cancel the match?
The example of Asha is informative too, Euron married her in absentia to an elderly man to prevent her from choosing a husband by herself. And Asha can't cancel the match without the Drowned God's clergy intervention I think.

[norwaywolf123]

5 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

I am sure that the whole Vale saga is Sansa's training ground to become this master of the game. I envision the endgame Sansa to resemble Cersei a lot, albeit much more cunning and smart, without Mad Queen's impulsiveness and stupidity. With Baelish as her tutor, I really see no one else standing in her way to become the endgame ruler of Westeros.

Now, where I see the Vale storyline going with Long Night at the door? I think mountain clans will unite under Timmett's leadership, who is half-Arryn himself by his mother, and then attack the Bloody Gate, and after that Gates of the Moon, at the very right moment, when avalanche from Giant's Lance will destroy Eyrie and Gates and most Vale nobility (thanks to sweetsunray's essays!). Timmett will personally slay his cousin Harry the Heir during the battle. 

Sansa will slay "the giant in the castle of snow" (Littlefinger) and escape this whole mess with Ser Shadrich Mad Mouse, Varys' agent, and be brought before Aegon and his camp and get involved in the games there (especially against Arianne Martell, Aegon's wife). Meanwhile, Timmett, conqueror of the Vale and raised in First Men customs, will meet with Lord Yohn Royce, whose armies were untouched by the natural disaster because he stayed at home in Runestone. Ysilla, widow of Mychel Redfort, will be offered in marriage pact to unite mountain clans and most powerful Vale nobility, who is First Men origin themselves and maybe a little more respected among clans than others. Maybe Timmett will marry Ysilla and adopt her name, the way Orys Baratheon adopted Argella's family banner and words, and be known as Timmett Royce, King of the Mountain and Vale. Tyrion promised them the Vale of Arryn after all, and I am sure it will happen.

With Vale under Timmett's rule, it will allow remaining Valemen to fight on Dany's side during second dance of the dragons, thanks to Tyrion's connection with mountain clans.

unlikely the population if overwhelmingly faith of the seven.... 

[aryagonnakill#2]

The problem with all of these theories is that LF's power is based entirely on being Roberts protector.  If Robert dies Harry the Heir will take all the titles himself or be the lord in name and let Bronze Yhon rule for a few years until he is a little older, but LF would loose all power in the Vale.  Then if Harry died and Sansa was pregnant with his heir, he could theoretically marry her to come to power like he did with Lysa, but that would mean he has completely overestimated his control over Sansa, and would be risking just about everything on Sansa getting pregnant quickly and Harrys death not being traced back to him.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Just now, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The problem with all of these theories is that LF's power is based entirely on being Roberts protector.  If Robert dies Harry the Heir will take all the titles himself or be the lord in name and let Bronze Yhon rule for a few years until he is a little older, but LF would loose all power in the Vale.  Then if Harry died and Sansa was pregnant with his heir, he could theoretically marry her to come to power like he did with Lysa, but that would mean he has completely overestimated his control over Sansa, and would be risking just about everything on Sansa getting pregnant quickly and Harrys death not being traced back to him.

Oh I'm sure Littlefinger's plan revolves around totally brainwashing Sansa into his loyal Apprentice, Darth Vader style. Then he rules through her thereafter, once she has a child.

[Harry Baratheon]

1 hour ago, norwaywolf123 said:

sopport fAegon or Dany 

i dont think Sweetrobin will die, i think he will join Dany Visenya style

He doesn't know about either.

So I still don't get the plan - reveal Sansa, marry her to Harry to link the Vale and the North and then…fight the remaining 5 kingdoms who still believe Sansa married the rightful king?  Somehow convince everyone that Joffrey was not legitimate and/or Sansa is innocent?  It seems too risky.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, Tanka Rae said:

He doesn't know about either.

So I still don't get the plan - reveal Sansa, marry her to Harry to link the Vale and the North and then…fight the remaining 5 kingdoms who still believe Sansa married the rightful king?  Somehow convince everyone that Joffrey was not legitimate and/or Sansa is innocent?  It seems too risky.

He said it himself. He thought Cersei would destroy the Lannister-Tyrell alliance herself, but that it would take her 5 years to do so. But that she had wreaked havoc so much faster than he had anticipated that he may be forced to accelerate his plans.

[Harry Baratheon]

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

He said it himself. He thought Cersei would destroy the Lannister-Tyrell alliance herself, but that it would take her 5 years to do so. But that she had wreaked havoc so much faster than he had anticipated that he may be forced to accelerate his plans.

So, the Lannisters lose the support of the Tyrells, there are still the Stormlands, Riverlands, and Dorne, as well as the wealth of the Westerlands.  It seems his plan requires that there is another rebellion and the Iron Throne changes hands to a new regime that is totally unconnected to the Baratheon one.  Let's say that Cersei, Tommen, and Myrcella, Stannis, and Shireen are all killed.  The line of succession will put the throne in the hands of Harold Baratheon, the eldest son of Harmon Baratheon, who was the first cousin of Robert's father.  He has a clear claim on the throne, and no reason to forgive the murderer of who he would believe is his cousin (not sure if it's 2nd cousin).  

Why would the rest of the Seven Kingdoms rebel against the legitimate heir?  Is there something about Harold we don't know?

[Harry Baratheon]

Correction!  Harold's father, Harmon, is still alive, and is around 51 years old, so he would be heir I believe.  I think he would actually come before Shireen, because it goes to male uncles before female children.  

[Free Northman Reborn]

9 minutes ago, Tanka Rae said:

So, the Lannisters lose the support of the Tyrells, there are still the Stormlands, Riverlands, and Dorne, as well as the wealth of the Westerlands.  It seems his plan requires that there is another rebellion and the Iron Throne changes hands to a new regime that is totally unconnected to the Baratheon one.  Let's say that Cersei, Tommen, and Myrcella, Stannis, and Shireen are all killed.  The line of succession will put the throne in the hands of Harold Baratheon, the eldest son of Harmon Baratheon, who was the first cousin of Robert's father.  He has a clear claim on the throne, and no reason to forgive the murderer of who he would believe is his cousin (not sure if it's 2nd cousin).  

Why would the rest of the Seven Kingdoms rebel against the legitimate heir?  Is there something about Harold we don't know?

Littlefinger thrives on chaos. If his plan is to get control of the Vale, Riverlands and North, while the Tyrells and Lannisters are set at each other's throats, all while Dorne sits off to one side with no connection to the Throne, that leaves only the Stormlands, which really needed the support of the Lannisters and Tyrells to even hold on to the Throne in the first place.

In such a chaotic situation Littlefinger's powerbloc could easily emerge as quite powerful. For the record, he is not trying to make Sansa queen of Westeros. But potentially ruling lady of the North and Riverlands, and regent of the Lord of the Vale.

And to be honest, if Tommen and Myrcella happen to die, and Stannis and Shirreen go the same way, then it becomes seriously questionable if the remaining Baratheon's (whether they be bastards or distant uncles or whatever) will really have widespread support to become Kings of all of Westeros.

[Harry Baratheon]

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Littlefinger thrives on chaos. If his plan is to get control of the Vale, Riverlands and North, while the Tyrells and Lannisters are set at each other's throats, all while Dorne sits off to one side with no connection to the Throne, that leaves only the Stormlands, which really needed the support of the Lannisters and Tyrells to even hold on to the Throne in the first place.

In such a chaotic situation Littlefinger's powerbloc could easily emerge as quite powerful. For the record, he is not trying to make Sansa queen of Westeros. But potentially ruling lady of the North and Riverlands, and regent of the Lord of the Vale.

But if the Tyrells and the Lannisters are at each other's throats, what's the justification for the Vale, Riverlands, and Crownlands rebelling against the legitimate Baratheon heir?  They have nothing against the Stormlands, who have mostly stayed out of recent conflicts and are in a strong position.  Harmon has FOUR children of marriageable age, and a legitimate half brother who is in his mid-twenties.  He has close family ties to Gowens, Cafferys, and Fells - not big names, but legitimate noble houses which certainly have connections to other noble houses.  All he has to do is offer his eldest son to marry a Tyrell, second eldest to marry a princess of Dorne, and still has kids left over for sealing alliances with other players.  They can all have a legitimate close connection to the Iron Throne, why would they rebel against him?

He even has a 20-something daughter he could offer to Harry the Heir to seal the Vale.

[Harry Baratheon]

In fact, the fact that Harmon has so many unmarried children of marriageable age makes me think he is very aware of his position of being only a few deaths away from the Iron Throne, and is keeping his options open.

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 minutes ago, Tanka Rae said:

But if the Tyrells and the Lannisters are at each other's throats, what's the justification for the Vale, Riverlands, and Crownlands rebelling against the legitimate Baratheon heir?  They have nothing against the Stormlands, who have mostly stayed out of recent conflicts and are in a strong position.  Harmon has FOUR children of marriageable age, and a legitimate half brother who is in his mid-twenties.  He has close family ties to Gowens, Cafferys, and Fells - not big names, but legitimate noble houses which certainly have connections to other noble houses.  All he has to do is offer his eldest son to marry a Tyrell, second eldest to marry a princess of Dorne, and still has kids left over for sealing alliances with other players.  They can all have a legitimate close connection to the Iron Throne, why would they rebel against him?

I'm not sure I follow. It is not a matter of rebelling. If Sansa has Harry's child after Robert Arryn has died, and if Edmure and his child then also die, then according to Littlefinger's knowledge, Sansa is the last remaining heir of both Winterfell and Riverrun, and regent of the Vale (once Harry is disposed of too).

There is no need to rebel then, unless the Iron Throne for some reason refuses to acknowledge Sansa as such. Of course, the Tullys need to regain the Riverlands first, just like the Starks need to regain Winterfell. But both those plots are already in motion. If the Iron Throne does not recognize the legitimacy of the Starks and Tullys, well, then I suspect it will be war again.

But this time with Littlefinger/Sansa's knights of the Vale added to the mix.

This of course all ignoring the reality of Aegon, Daenerys, Bran, Rickon and Jon Snow, who further complicate matters, but who Littlefinger is not aware of as yet.

 

[Harry Baratheon]

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I'm not sure I follow. It is not a matter of rebelling. If Sansa has Harry's child after Robert Arryn has died, and if Edmure and his child then also die, then according to Littlefinger's knowledge, Sansa is the last remaining heir of both Winterfell and Riverrun.

There is no need to rebel then, unless the Iron Throne for some reason refuses to acknowledge her as such. Of course, the Tullys need to regain the Riverlands first, just like the Starks need to regain Winterfell. But both those plots are already in motion. If the Iron Throne does not recognize the legitimacy of the Starks and Tullys, well, then I suspect it will be war again.

But this time with Littlefinger/Sansa's knights of the Vale added to the mix.

This of course all ignoring the reality of Aegon, Daenerys, Bran, Rickon and Jon Snow, who further complicate matters, but who Littlefinger is not aware of as yet.

 

I know we are ignoring Aegon, Daenerys, and the rest, as we're trying to figure out Littlefinger's thought processes.  I just don't understand what he plans to do about Harmon Baratheon.  Harmon is going to want justice for the death of his cousin Joffrey.  He needs to somehow convince him that Sansa is not, in fact, guilty.  How is he going to do that?

Also, why does he expect the Riverlands to unite behind Sansa?  Is Edmure going to be killed off too?  In that case, unless the Riverlands practices a different form of succession from the rest of the Seven Kingdoms, it passes to Blackfish - uncles before female children...and that would be even if Sansa was Edmure's daughter, not his niece.  And Hoster had cousins aplenty that would be more legitimate heirs than his grandaughter.

[Free Northman Reborn]

6 minutes ago, Tanka Rae said:

I know we are ignoring Aegon, Daenerys, and the rest, as we're trying to figure out Littlefinger's thought processes.  I just don't understand what he plans to do about Harmon Baratheon.  Harmon is going to want justice for the death of his cousin Joffrey.  He needs to somehow convince him that Sansa is not, in fact, guilty.  How is he going to do that?

Al

He is going to say get stuffed or face the combined might of the Vale, Riverlands and North. And do so without the support of the Tyrells and Lannisters, as Tommen, Myrcella, Cersei and probably Margaery too will all be dead by then if Littlefinger has his way.

With Cersei, Tommen and Myrcella dead, the West has no stake in supporting the Throne anymore. And the same goes for the Tyrells if Margaery is no longer married to Tommen, or if she is dead.

[Harry Baratheon]

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

He is going to say get stuffed or face the combined might of the Vale, Riverlands and North. And do so without the support of the Tyrells and Lannisters, as Tommen, Myrcella, Cersei and probably Margaery too will all be dead by then if Littlefinger has his way.

With Cersei, Tommen and Myrcella dead, the West has no stake in supporting the Throne anymore. And the same goes for the Tyrells if Margaery is no longer married to Tommen, or if she is dead.

Nonsense, they will have cause to support the throne because it's got a legitimate line of succession that does not pass through the Vale, Riverlands, or North.  We know that the Lannisters have a lot of cousins, their house is not in danger of extinction, so they aren't going to be out of the game.  Likewise, the Reach is nowhere near being in danger of extinction.

With Tommen and Myrcella dead, there is a 51 year old Baratheon with four unmarried children sitting on the throne, unless there is some kind of rebellion.  He's obviously going to use those children to cement alliances with other Houses.  Who's going to rebel against the Iron Throne in support of protecting the daughter of an admitted traitor who murdered one of the former legitimate kings, and why?

What do the River Lords have to gain from backing Sansa?  The Frey's won't, and they are very powerful.  Some others may have closer ties to House Tully, but they aren't going to bend the laws of succession to put Sansa in charge when Hoster has a perfectly acceptable brother and many cousins, as well as Edmure's many bastards, any of which could be legitimized by Harmon.

What do the Lannisters have to gain for backing Sansa?  They hate her!  The very best they could ask them to do is remain neutral, but in all likelihood, they are going to stay loyal to the Iron Throne, especially since Harmon's got kids to spare to keep them connected by marriage.

The Reach?  They CERTAINLY do not want to back Sansa and the Vale - she's taking the blame for their killing of Joffrey.

If Petyr Baelish has a plan involving Sansa, it absolutely requires that she is somehow absolved of the murder of Joffrey before she marries Harry.  Petyr is well aware of the line of succession and Harmon's claim should Robert's children die.

I think he has no real plan to marry Sansa to Harry, and is just using her in some undetermined fashion.  But let's say he has a plan to prove that Sansa is innocent of the murder of Joffrey, and even a way to make it look like one of the other houses was responsible - let's say he puts the blame on the Tyrells.  This still doesn't get him very far.  Sansa will be married to the heir of the Vale, so Petyr will have power there, through her.  Sansa can't be heir to the Riverlands, that's going to go to Edmure or Blackfish, the familial connection will be somewhat useful, but won't give Petyr any power there.  Since he doesn't know about Bran, her child would be heir to House Stark, but how much is that worth?  House Stark is no longer in control of the North.  Even if Harmon hates the Boltons, he's going to name some other great lord of the North Lord Protector, not the infant child of the heir/lord paramount of the Vale - that would put WAY too much power in one person's hands and there is no reason why he has to do it - he has perfect justification in doing so by saying that the Lord Protector should be someone who lives in the North and has power there.  Maybe in 20 years or so power could go back to the Starks, but I doubt he is playing that long of a game.

Baelish has to convince the Seven Kingdoms that Sansa is not responsible for the death of Joffrey, and all that does is put him close to the leader of the Vale.  That's a step up for a boy from the Fingers, but is that all he is shooting for?

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

11 minutes ago, Tanka Rae said:

Nonsense, they will have cause to support the throne because it's got a legitimate line of succession that does not pass through the Vale, Riverlands, or North.  We know that the Lannisters have a lot of cousins, their house is not in danger of extinction, so they aren't going to be out of the game.  Likewise, the Reach is nowhere near being in danger of extinction.

With Tommen and Myrcella dead, there is a 51 year old Baratheon with four unmarried children sitting on the throne, unless there is some kind of rebellion.  He's obviously going to use those children to cement alliances with other Houses.  Who's going to rebel against the Iron Throne in support of protecting the daughter of an admitted traitor who murdered one of the former legitimate kings, and why?

What do the River Lords have to gain from backing Sansa?  The Frey's won't, and they are very powerful.  Some others may have closer ties to House Tully, but they aren't going to bend the laws of succession to put Sansa in charge when Hoster has a perfectly acceptable brother and many cousins, as well as Edmure's many bastards, any of which could be legitimized by Harmon.

What do the Lannisters have to gain for backing Sansa?  They hate her!  The very best they could ask them to do is remain neutral, but in all likelihood, they are going to stay loyal to the Iron Throne, especially since Harmon's got kids to spare to keep them connected by marriage.

The Reach?  They CERTAINLY do not want to back Sansa and the Vale - she's taking the blame for their killing of Joffrey.

If Petyr Baelish has a plan involving Sansa, it absolutely requires that she is somehow absolved of the murder of Joffrey before she marries Harry.  Petyr is well aware of the line of succession and Harmon's claim should Robert's children die.

I think he has no real plan to marry Sansa to Harry, and is just using her in some undetermined fashion.  But let's say he has a plan to prove that Sansa is innocent of the murder of Joffrey, and even a way to make it look like one of the other houses was responsible - let's say he puts the blame on the Tyrells.  This still doesn't get him very far.  Sansa will be married to the heir of the Vale, so Petyr will have power there, through her.  Sansa can't be heir to the Riverlands, that's going to go to Edmure or Blackfish, the familial connection will be somewhat useful, but won't give Petyr any power there.  Since he doesn't know about Bran, her child would be heir to House Stark, but how much is that worth?  House Stark is no longer in control of the North.  Even if Harmon hates the Boltons, he's going to name some other great lord of the North Lord Protector, not the infant child of the heir/lord paramount of the Vale - that would put WAY too much power in one person's hands and there is no reason why he has to do it - he has perfect justification in doing so by saying that the Lord Protector should be someone who lives in the North and has power there.  Maybe in 20 years or so power could go back to the Starks, but I doubt he is playing that long of a game.

Baelish has to convince the Seven Kingdoms that Sansa is not responsible for the death of Joffrey, and all that does is put him close to the leader of the Vale.  That's a step up for a boy from the Fingers, but is that all he is shooting for?

 

Your emphasis remains on the Reach or the West backing Sansa. They won't be backing her. Littlefinger no doubt plans to set them at war with one another as well. If the enmity between Cersei and Margaery leads to a full scale war between the Tyrells and Lannisters - once Tommen, Myrcella and Margaery are dead - then they aren't going to care two hoots about the heir to Riverrun and Winterfell merely wanting what is hers.

And I think you overestimate the love this Harmun or whatever his name is has for Joffrey. If the realm is in dire straits, wracked by war already, I doubt he is going to put it all on the line to get vengeance for Joffrey's death.

But we speculate now on events that will never transpire in any case. Let's be content with saying that LIttlefinger sees a legitimate path through Sansa to gaining control over three of the Seven kingdoms, and that he plans to do so by sowing as much chaos as possible to prepare the ground for his protege.

All of which will go to hell of course once it transpires that both Bran and Rickon are ahead of her in the line of succession for both Winterfell and Riverrun.

EDIT

Also, who is this Baratheon uncle you speak of? I can't find him on the House Baratheon family tree in the Wiki. Was he a brother of Lord Steffon?

[Mystrandir]

30 minutes ago, Tanka Rae said:

I know we are ignoring Aegon, Daenerys, and the rest, as we're trying to figure out Littlefinger's thought processes.  I just don't understand what he plans to do about Harmon Baratheon.  Harmon is going to want justice for the death of his cousin Joffrey.  He needs to somehow convince him that Sansa is not, in fact, guilty.  How is he going to do that?

Also, why does he expect the Riverlands to unite behind Sansa?  Is Edmure going to be killed off too?  In that case, unless the Riverlands practices a different form of succession from the rest of the Seven Kingdoms, it passes to Blackfish - uncles before female children...and that would be even if Sansa was Edmure's daughter, not his niece.  And Hoster had cousins aplenty that would be more legitimate heirs than his grandaughter.

The only time uncles come before female heirs is in regards to the Iron Throne (and it's not clear if that's still in effect or was thrown out with the Targaryens). Female children of the lord come after all their brothers, but before any other branches are examined. The line of succession to the Riverlands is currently Edmure -> his child -> Catelyn's children -> Sweetrobin -> Blackfish