How will LF meet his end?

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@Lost Melnibonean

Varys tipping off Jaime could easily enough have resulted in Eddard Stark's death, and that would have meant war.

There is a good chance Varys used the Dany assassination to drive a wedge between Robert and Ned, leading to his return to Winterfell. Then Ned could later be used to support a Targaryen restoration.

The Small Council session and the subsequent brothel visit takes place a mere day after Ned and Varys/Illyrio learned about/discussed Tyrion's abduction, and thus it is very likely that the news finally reached Jaime/Cersei all by itself. And then Jaime would have collected his men to go look for Ned, even more so after he learned the man no longer was Hand (and thus was indeed just 'lord from a place far away from here').

Littlefinger, Ned, and his men didn't take the secret route this time. People would have seen where they were going, and all Jaime needed to do was to go down into the city, and ask some Kingslanders whether they had seen Lord Stark and/or his retainers.

There is nothing mysterious about that whole thing.

I agree that this is more likely than Petyr tipping off Jaime. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Do you really think Stannis would have told Ned anything? He did not like that guy, and he had also closed off his island. If Ned had landed on Dragonstone Stannis might not have allowed him to leave.

Yes. I think you are wrong. Stannis's brother was still alive. Stannis would have done his duty. 

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Yes. I think you are wrong. Stannis's brother was still alive. Stannis would have done his duty. 

Well, but he didn't. Ned wrote him multiple letters, urging him to return to court to retake his seat on the Small Council. Stannis never deigned to reply, nor did he come to the tourney which certainly could have provided him with enough pretext to approach Ned and warn him about the danger Robert was in.

If the man had cared about Robert's life he would have tried to save him by going through Ned in some way. The fact that he didn't means he was preparing for Robert's death and his own campaign for the crown. He did nothing to save Robert or ruin Cersei.

This mindset doesn't make it likely he would ever have confided in Ned of all people. Especially not since he actually had had a falling out with Robert over the lives of the Targaryens in exile. Stannis would have wanted them dead as much as Robert and could easily enough have imprisoned Ned as a Targaryen loyalist.

Keep in mind that Stannis really doesn't like Ned (he stresses that fact - if Stannis says somebody isn't his friend that pretty much means he dislikes that person more than the people he doesn't talk about) and that Ned pretty much didn't know Stannis. Ned decided to give Cersei enough time to flee when he made the choice to offer the Iron Throne to Stannis. But Stannis already knew he was the rightful king, so he wouldn't have been very grateful for Ned to offer him what he already thought was his by right. And then Ned actually allowed Cersei and her children to escape, thus potentially plunging the Realm into a civil war? From Stannis' point of view that would either border on treason or actually be treason. 

[Lord Wraith]

55 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, but he didn't. Ned wrote him multiple letters, urging him to return to court to retake his seat on the Small Council. Stannis never deigned to reply, nor did he come to the tourney which certainly could have provided him with enough pretext to approach Ned and warn him about the danger Robert was in.

If the man had cared about Robert's life he would have tried to save him by going through Ned in some way. The fact that he didn't means he was preparing for Robert's death and his own campaign for the crown. He did nothing to save Robert or ruin Cersei.

This mindset doesn't make it likely he would ever have confided in Ned of all people. Especially not since he actually had had a falling out with Robert over the lives of the Targaryens in exile. Stannis would have wanted them dead as much as Robert and could easily enough have imprisoned Ned as a Targaryen loyalist.

Keep in mind that Stannis really doesn't like Ned (he stresses that fact - if Stannis says somebody isn't his friend that pretty much means he dislikes that person more than the people he doesn't talk about) and that Ned pretty much didn't know Stannis. Ned decided to give Cersei enough time to flee when he made the choice to offer the Iron Throne to Stannis. But Stannis already knew he was the rightful king, so he wouldn't have been very grateful for Ned to offer him what he already thought was his by right. And then Ned actually allowed Cersei and her children to escape, thus potentially plunging the Realm into a civil war? From Stannis' point of view that would either border on treason or actually be treason. 

While I'd imagine he didn't return because he was certain that he was certain that the Lannisters, or someone would attempt to kill him like they did Jon Arryn. He clearly doesn't think that Robert would believe him if he told him about the incest or he would have done it.

Varys mentions that Stannis and Lysa are "gathering swords around them." Robert is clearly doomed in his opinion and he clearly did nothing to stop it. Why would he? Robert never gave him anyone and him doing nothing would legally make him King.

[Lord Varys]

22 minutes ago, Lord Wraith said:

While I'd imagine he didn't return because he was certain that he was certain that the Lannisters, or someone would attempt to kill him like they did Jon Arryn. He clearly doesn't think that Robert would believe him if he told him about the incest or he would have done it.

I don't buy it for a second that Stannis was afraid that somebody would kill him, and moved to Dragonstone for that reason. He was just pissed that Robert chose Ned instead of him as the new Hand. Stannis wages a war against all of Westeros with meager resources and a ridiculous army. The only reasonable outcome there is his premature death. Yet he isn't afraid to do it anyway. The idea that the man was actually afraid Cersei or somebody would put some poison in his salt water is ridiculous.

Stannis also could have told Robert about his suspicions about Cersei and Jame as well as the truth (as he saw it) behind the sudden death of Jon Arryn. As you recall, Cersei and the children were away from court, accompanying Lord Tywin into the West, when Jon fell ill and died. Stannis would have had access to Robert and could have laid his case in front of him without any fear of Cersei intervening immediately.

And since Renly actually believe he could use Margaery as a second Lyanna to replace Cersei one assumes that all Robert would have needed to break with Cersei was a good reason/pretext. The thought that Cersei could cuckold him never crossed his mind but once it did the very possibility of it being true would be like an open wound. It would fester quickly enough. Just look how effectively Tyrion poisoned Jaime's mind against Cersei. And he actually loves her.

And considering that Robert was as unhappy with his life and marriage as he was the idea to extinguish House Lannister completely (in another fun war he could conduct) as well as finally marrying a woman he actually liked could have been a nice new beginning.

22 minutes ago, Lord Wraith said:

Varys mentions that Stannis and Lysa are "gathering swords around them." Robert is clearly doomed in his opinion and he clearly did nothing to stop it. Why would he? Robert never gave him anyone and him doing nothing would legally make him King.

Exactly. If Stannis' goal is the crown - and we can be reasonably sure that it is (else he would have reached some sort of compromise/peace with Renly) - then warning Robert doesn't accomplish anything in the long run. His duty to his brother still sort of prevailed when he talked to Jon Arryn but when Robert effectively ignored his 'claim' to the Handship as his brother and most capable adviser (in his own mind, at least) after Jon's death he decided to abandon Robert and prepare for the aftermath. If Robert died without a legitimate heir of his own body he was the rightful king - something he would not have been had Robert lived another twenty years and remarried after he had executed Cersei.

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, but he didn't. Ned wrote him multiple letters, urging him to return to court to retake his seat on the Small Council. Stannis never deigned to reply, nor did he come to the tourney which certainly could have provided him with enough pretext to approach Ned and warn him about the danger Robert was in.

If the man had cared about Robert's life he would have tried to save him by going through Ned in some way. The fact that he didn't means he was preparing for Robert's death and his own campaign for the crown. He did nothing to save Robert or ruin Cersei.

This mindset doesn't make it likely he would ever have confided in Ned of all people. Especially not since he actually had had a falling out with Robert over the lives of the Targaryens in exile. Stannis would have wanted them dead as much as Robert and could easily enough have imprisoned Ned as a Targaryen loyalist.

Keep in mind that Stannis really doesn't like Ned (he stresses that fact - if Stannis says somebody isn't his friend that pretty much means he dislikes that person more than the people he doesn't talk about) and that Ned pretty much didn't know Stannis. Ned decided to give Cersei enough time to flee when he made the choice to offer the Iron Throne to Stannis. But Stannis already knew he was the rightful king, so he wouldn't have been very grateful for Ned to offer him what he already thought was his by right. And then Ned actually allowed Cersei and her children to escape, thus potentially plunging the Realm into a civil war? From Stannis' point of view that would either border on treason or actually be treason. 

But Stannis was alone and isolated. If Eddard Stark had come to him, things might have been different. 

In any event it's a contrary to fact hypothesis and thus even less meaningful than the rest of our arguments over what some fat dude from New Jersey might fancy. 

[Lord Varys]

32 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But Stannis was alone and isolated. If Eddard Stark had come to him, things might have been different.

Yes, that's a fair point. Stannis would have to choose between allowing Eddard Stark to be the celebrated hero/savior again (telling Robert the truth about Cersei just as he ended the siege of Storm's End) and whatever Selyse and Melisandre had to offer. Really difficult to say.