My thoughts on Varys and Illyrio's plan

[Lady Blizzardborn]

15 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Anyone else think Mummer's dragon might not actually mean a false or Black dragon. Could just be referring to the dragon backed by the Mummer aka Varys.

*raises hand* Me, me me!

[Smirking Knight]

All conspiracy theories aside, Illyrio and Varys' motivation has always seemed to me to be very simple: proving that they can. They both came from very humble circumstances and faced varying degrees of oppression and difficulty in their climb up. What better way to prove their triumph over those born more rich or powerful than essentially toppling the most powerful kingdom on Planetos and installing themselves and their agent/kin/whoever Aegon really is on the throne? 

With regard to their plan for Viserys and Dany, it seems like they tried to thread the needle very carefully. Viserys and Dany, standing alone and alive, somewhat mess up the plan for Aegon. Killing them outright would have been wasteful, because as already pointed out they could be useful by: distracting a big Khalasar, causing chaos and distraction in Westeros prior to Aegon's unveiling, and/or providing backup to Aegon at some crucial point. 

Further, it hedges Illyrio and Varys' bets. If for some reason Aegon didn't work out and Viserys/Dany survived with a big army at their back, they represent another ace in the hole and opportunity to be a part of Westeros' new ruling order. 

[Lord Wraith]

9 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

And just like Robert's doll might have satisfied the same maid vision, this might have satisfied the mummer's dragon vision...

Cersei V, Feast 24

Or not. 

Varys is certainly laying the groundwork in the minds of the smallfolk of King's Landing.

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Varys is certainly laying the groundwork in the minds of the smallfolk of King's Landing.

And a nice bit of foreshadowing by the author.