US Politics: I Say a Little Prayer for You!

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

but as a non-practicing Jew, I’m highly skeptical that it won’t be used against him if he’s the eventual nominee.

Of course it will.  This is Trump we're talking about.  Sure he'll find some way to refer to Kushner et al. as "good" Jews.

In other news, Matt Yglesias is totally copying my shit:

Quote

But now, on the day of New Hampshire’s primary, she’s locked in a battle with Biden over who will finish third and who will finish fourth. And unlike Biden, who is counting on a South Carolina “firewall” to revive his campaign, she doesn’t have a backstop state.

If she beats poll-based expectations and unexpectedly does well in New Hampshire Tuesday night, she could bounce back. Her candidacy, after all, retains a lot of the underlying strength that made her a frontrunner in October. But if she doesn’t, this could be the end of the road for her, and that’s left a lot of people puzzling over what exactly happened.

 

On 2/10/2020 at 11:10 AM, DMC said:

If something close to that result holds, Biden has SC to lean on, but what about Warren?  If she doesn't confound expectations tomorrow night, I'm starting to think it's quite possible she drops out in a week or so.  And I would not be surprised if she endorses Bernie while doing so.

If you're trolling this board for topics, Matt, we expect royalties.

[Maithanet]

What's weird is that the early primary states had a warping effect on which candidates survived even to make it to voting.  IA and NH are mostly white and very liberal, and the candidates who do well with white/liberal voters are the ones who are left.  The Warren campaign could quite reasonably say that Iowa and New Hampshire are good states on paper for her.  But you know who else could say that?  Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar.  Thus if Warren or Klobuchar can't either win or get a strong enough finish to "surprise" in NH, then they're finished.  If Warren or Klobuchar finishes 5th in NH, there's definitely going to be pressure on them to drop out.  Warren will probably stick around until at least NV, but I could easily see a scenario where both women drop out before Super Tuesday. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

 (I am sadly discounting Klobuchar at this point).  So, to conclude my stream of consciousness wandering, (i) TEAM WARREN 

While I don’t think either will win, why are you placing Warren ahead of Amy? Warren is declining while Amy is ascending. A lot of local reporting seems to indicate she’s going to have a strong showing tonight.

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Yep.  Look at the congressional ballot polls and the fundraising.  All indicators point up for the Dems.  Due to the economy and the entire "meh" list of Dem candidates, there's tons of reasons to be cynical about Trump being elected.  But he's not gonna win in a landslide of any sorts unless there are some very dramatic changes to the environment.

 

1 hour ago, mormont said:

I like the post but this is the bit I disagree with. I think there's a pessimism among Dem voters that likely isn't merited. (I've read all the predictions of doom, so no need to repeat them, folks.)

I want to add that this is also Trump's strategy.  He WANTS Democrats to feel exhausted and defeated.  Like a veteran quarterback who tries to rile up the road crowd two hours before kickoff, he knows those same people might get tired of yelling in the 4th quarter.  He constantly says that America is corrupt, that all politicians are terrible, that the media is all lies, and he does it to wear you down, because he knows that if the Democrats actually unite and show up, then he's screwed.  Hell, he only won 46% of the vote, noticeably less than Romney (47.2%) or Kerry (48.3%).  He hasn't expanded his base (he hasn't even tried).  Instead he is relying on Democrats to be so exhausted and demoralized by Trump getting away with it over and over and over again that they accept another 4 years of this shit. 

Fuck that noise.  Trump is a snakeoil salesman, and I'm not falling for his hustle ever again.  Vote. Organize. Win. 

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Fuck that noise.

Fuck That Noise 2020.  Get on it Dems!

[illrede]

3 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

I cannot even imagine how the mainstream media is going to lose its collective shit if it's Sanders vs Trump.  They are already clamoring for Bloomberg.

I think imagining the reactions (not necessarily in the media) if it's Trump vs Bloomberg is more interesting. It would be as if the masses of both parties had sloughed off their party-level cultivated historical conventional wisdom and internal cultures as if it were so much rotten skin. Sanders is at least expressible from previously established party elements, if regarded as "out of bounds" (and also "out of turn") when taken as a whole.